Modern structure of Russian exports. Foreign Trade Reviews

During 2016, the situation with foreign trade did not develop in the best possible way: a decrease in production volumes, devaluation of the ruble, an embargo on imports - these are the factors that have led to the fact that the export of Russian goods abroad has become minimal. Experts conducted another analysis of Russian exports and found that the volume of supplies that had fallen in the first quarter rose by the end of the year and was almost equal to the indicators of the previous period. Dynamics of Russian foreign trade and this is what our article will be devoted to.

Analysis of Russian exports in 2016

An analysis of Russian exports for 2016 showed: the volume of exported goods decreased by 17%, which is $285.49 billion in monetary equivalent. Moreover, in January 2016, foreign supplies decreased by 37.2%, which was the minimum figure.

This dynamic is quite understandable. Russia mainly supplies gas and oil abroad, and after the worldwide reduction in the price of hydrocarbons, the total value of exported volumes naturally fell, although the quantitative indicator became higher. Despite the rather low prices, we continued trading and increased the number of sales. For example, during the year, oil exports increased to 236 million tons (by 6.6%), but in monetary terms, income decreased to $73.67 billion (by 17.7%).

A similar picture was observed in relation to other exported raw materials. For example, 154.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas were sold (which is 13.8% higher than the previous year), and in monetary terms the values ​​decreased, since within the first six months the price dropped to $156.1 per 1 thousand cubic meters ( by 48.1% compared to the previous period).

Oil and gas producing companies tried to increase the volume of external supplies in order to maintain their share in the commodity market. We should not forget about the devaluation of the Russian monetary unit, when the amount of export earnings (in rubles) can be quite high.

An analysis of Russian exports showed that representatives of other industries acted based on similar incentives. For example, the volume of food supplies to China, Asian and European countries became larger, and in some products we took a leading position. For example, already in the spring Russia overtook America and Canada in wheat exports. Sales of not only food, such as meat and dairy products, but also many other goods, in particular wood and products from engineering factories, have increased. Again, the devaluation of the ruble benefited domestic exporters, who had the opportunity to reduce prices for supplies without incurring serious losses.

It is also worth noting China, which remains the main buyer of Russian-made goods. An analysis of Russian exports showed that at the beginning of the year sales volumes coal fell, but gradually we managed to bring foreign trade with the Celestial Empire to a decent level, increasing trade turnover to $66.1 billion (by 4%). In addition, China began to purchase more metal, equipment, products from engineering and automobile factories, and food. In addition to trade relations, the countries have expanded cooperation in other areas of activity, as evidenced by the numerous (more than 30) agreements concluded between them.

An analysis of Russia's exports and imports in relation to trade with European countries showed a not so optimistic picture. Thus, only to France supplies of gas and grain remained at good level, even increased to $13.3 billion (by 14%), but income from trade with Italy decreased to $19.8 billion (by 35%), with the Netherlands - to $32.3 billion (by 17%), and with Germany – up to $40.7 billion (by 11.1%).

Commodity structure of Russian exports in 2016 to non-CIS countries

Far abroad countries mainly purchase fuel and energy resources from Russia. Until 2016, our country’s share was 66.5%, and during the year it decreased to 62%. An analysis of the dynamics of Russian exports and imports demonstrates that this happened due to a sharp drop in value indicators due to a decrease in the price of gas and oil by 22.5% (although actual export volumes increased by an average of 3.2%). For example, the growth in gas supplies was 13.8%, coal – 9.1%, oil – 6.6%. Moreover, exported petroleum products fell in price: diesel fuel - by 5.9%, and gasoline - by 17.3%. This economic phenomenon is explained by changes in the tax system, which led to an increase in payments against the background of a decrease in the efficiency of the Russian oil refining industry.

The second place in exports from our country is given to metals and metallurgical products. Here, too, one can observe an almost 12% drop in value against the background of an increase in the number of supplies (by 4.4%). The most actively purchased products from our country are steel rolling production (exports increased by 13.6%), iron parts and blanks (semi-finished products), and unalloyed steel (an increase of 2.6%). The situation on the market, as an analysis of Russian exports shows, is similar to that which has developed with hydrocarbon products: they offer a lot and buy little, which could not but affect the cost indicator (prices have become an order of magnitude lower).

The export of domestic equipment has increased significantly. Moreover, the value volume remained almost at the same level as in the previous year, but the turnover indicator increased. During the year they exported: land transport (excluding railways) by 67.8% more, optical products (by 18.6%), electrical equipment (by 26.4%). Sales volumes increased not only by Russian enterprises, but also by companies representing foreign manufacturers, such as Volkswagen and Hyundai. Moreover, the export was directed not only to European countries, but also to the countries of the Middle East, Asia and China.

An analysis of the dynamics of Russian exports and imports showed an increase in value by 7.7%, and in physical terms by 12.8%. The development of the agricultural industry contributed to the growth of foreign supplies of grain, vegetables, meat, dairy and other agricultural products. Moreover, the countries of Latin America and the Middle East, China and some others joined the already existing buyers.

In 2016, the export of chemical products decreased significantly: in monetary terms by 22.5%, and in physical terms by 0.6%. There is a noticeable decrease in the supply of household chemicals (soaps and detergents) and medicines. In addition, fertilizer exports fell by 2.2%, as due to rapid development agricultural production, these products have become more intensively consumed within the country.

Analysis of Russian exports to CIS countries

32.6% of the total volume of Russian exports is fuel and energy. After the fall in oil and gas prices and the reduction in supplies of energy resources and fuel to Belarus and Ukraine, both physical (by 8.7%) and monetary (by 31.2%) volumes of external sales of hydrocarbon resources decreased: the number of electricity, 16.6% – natural gas, 3.8% – oil and petroleum products.

An analysis of Russian exports shows that due to the reduction in trade turnover between our country and other CIS countries, the value of sales of products from engineering plants and equipment decreased by 15.8%. External sales of ground transport fell especially sharply (by 43.7%).

The reduction in supplies has not spared the domestic metallurgical industry. In the entire volume of foreign trade, the share of metals is 11.7%. And here, an analysis of Russian exports shows: cost indicators for ferrous metals decreased by 9.8%, and physical indicators by 7.8%, and the level of sales of non-ferrous metals and copper increased by 6.3%. Naturally, the profits of the metallurgical industry were also negatively affected by the fall in world prices.

We can note the success of the development of the chemical production industry; exports of products here increased by 9.4%. Moreover, value volumes decreased by 4%. In this product group, fertilizers are in particular demand, sales of which increased by 20.8% of total industry sales. These products began to be used well not only within the country, which is associated with the intensive development of agriculture, but also in the CIS, where they began to pay quite a lot of attention to this industry.

Analysis of Russian exports over the past 10 years has revealed leading directions

The weakest link that we inherited from Soviet industry is the production of consumer goods. It is almost impossible to find high-quality domestic clothing or electronics, and jokes are made about the Russian auto industry. Therefore, the average consumer can hardly give a decent assessment of the country's industrial production and see its achievements.

Despite all the successful discoveries and results in space exploration, nuclear energy and other fundamental sciences, many are convinced that in Russia they simply cannot invent, much less make, something that would not be embarrassing to offer to the buyer, and then and sell on the world market.

There is no doubt that the lion's share of the domestic budget is oil rent. Thus, an analysis of Russian exports for 2013 showed that the country sold various products worth $526 billion, of which $371 billion was income from the sale of energy resources. Note the $155 billion difference! Did they come from somewhere?! Less than ten years have passed since then, when the entire annual export volume was equal to 133 billion dollars.

The Federal Customs Service informs that in 2016, as in previous years, the main exported goods remained products of the fuel and energy industry (60.7% of the total volume). Although the decrease in supplies also affected this area: the cost of sales decreased by 38.9%, volume - by 0.6%.

So what can Russia offer to the world community, if not coal, oil or gas? The list, in principle, is not so small: wood, grain, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, weapons.

For example, compared to the previous year in 2016, as an analysis of Russian exports shows, grain supplies increased by 14%, amounting to 25 million tons. The country has become a leader among states selling wheat outside its borders.

Cereals from Russian Federation are sent to more than 70 countries, including Turkey, Nigeria, Iran, the Republic of Bangladesh and, of course, Egypt. As for the latter, it is this country that buys maximum amount cereals from our farmers. Bloomberg noted that Russia has reached a fundamentally new level in the export of these products and has regained its status as a grain superpower, becoming the world's largest supplier.

An analysis of the dynamics of Russian exports and imports conducted by the International Research Institute showed that the countries that export the maximum amount of weapons remain Russia and the United States. And the Middle East is still our key buyer of these products.

The export of the above goods does not surprise anyone, but quite often foreign trade involves products that no one would even think about. They are the ones who can make you look at the achievements of Russian industry differently.

9 Russian products for export that you might not have guessed about

1. Titanium for space and prosthetics.

Titanium is a metal that has no analogues. It combines lightness and strength, and its melting temperature must be at least 1660 °C (for iron this figure is much lower). In addition, titanium is inert, which makes it possible to use it in dental and orthopedic prosthetics.

However, the main consumer of this metal is the aerospace industry. Body elements, wings and landing gear are made from it. The proportion of titanium parts relative to the total weight of the aircraft differs among different models. For example, in the Boeing-707 and An-24 this amount is 0.5%, in the Boeing-777 it is already 8.5%, and in the Il-76T it reaches 12%.

AVISMA proposes to use parts made of this metal for the Dreamliner landing gear.

In aviation, titanium is used not only in its pure form, but also its alloys. An analysis of Russian exports showed that it is our country, represented by the VSMPO-AVISMA company, that occupies a leading position in its supply. Russian titanium is used in Europe for Airbus and in America for Boeing. The AVISMA company is proud that it was able to produce a unique landing gear trolley for the A-380 aircraft, which is the heaviest passenger airliner (3,500 kg).

VSMPO-AVISMA products are exported to 39 countries, they are used by 260 foreign companies, which accounts for 70% of total production (the remaining 30% goes to Russian consumers).

Therefore, it is understandable why Airbus, after talk of imposing sanctions on companies from Russia, began to actively look for alternative supply options. If restrictive measures are nevertheless introduced, this will negatively affect the implementation of a large-scale space project, and not just programs of intra-European importance.

2. Gold for iPhone parts.

An analysis of Russian exports showed that domestic manufacturers are suppliers of precious and rare earth metals, which are used by Apple in the manufacture of gadgets and computers. The company collaborated with eleven factories located in Russia and purchased:

gold to cover the contacts;

tantalum for the manufacture of capacitors;

tungsten to alloy the metal body;

tin for soldering various parts.

It would seem not much. However, in order to obtain tantalum or tungsten, it is necessary to go through difficult production processes, starting from metal mining and ending with its processing. The technological chain involves not only human resources, but also quite serious equipment. For example, drilling machines from the Uralmash plant.

After mining, the metal is melted and sent for processing. And here again you may need equipment from the Uralmash Corporation. For example, to process titanium parts, VSMPO-AVISMA uses a press with a compression force of 6,000 tons, manufactured by the plant to special order. This is how an industrial chain is built, which ultimately allows you to use gadgets to view the information you are interested in while on board a modern aircraft.

3. Equipment for the nuclear industry.

Here it’s time to remember Russia’s role in the creation of the Large Hadron Collider and the unique thermonuclear reactor ITER, the construction of which involved domestic research and production enterprises.

This is not the first year that the Institute nuclear physics them. G.I. Budkera (Novosibirsk) conducts various studies, being completely self-sufficient. This is possible due to the fact that, as an analysis of Russian exports shows, products developed at this Novosibirsk institute are offered on the world market. And these are not only X-ray machines, but also absolutely unique charged particle accelerators that can be used in production, and only a few enterprises can do this. Novosibirsk residents are very pleased that their products are in demand not only abroad, but also in Russia.

4. Navigation systems.

Transas is a company that produces electronic maps for maritime transport and navigation systems and occupies a leading position in the global market. Instrumentation systems for guiding the production of this enterprise are used in 100 countries and installed on passenger, military and specialized vessels. 55 countries use 205 navigation systems on their shores, covering 100 ports. In addition, an analysis of Russian exports showed that the company quite successfully sells various security and geoinformation devices, drones and simulators on the world market.

5. Presses for production.

The production of a modern car requires the presence of a press at the enterprise, capable of making a structural part, sometimes of an atypical shape, from a sheet of metal. Modern requirements for the reliability of such equipment are high, because it operates under very intense conditions. OJSC Tyazhmekhpress (Voronezh) is the largest supplier of production presses. An analysis of Russian exports shows that the company’s products were distributed to 54 countries (more than 12 thousand machines). They are used by world leaders in auto production, such as Japanese Toyota and Mitsubishi, French Renault and Peugeot and others.

In addition to automobile ones, TMP produces forging presses, which it is rightly proud of. They are used to produce engine parts (crank mechanisms). There are only 17 such presses in the world, and 8 of them were produced by TMP. Thus, by purchasing a Toyota or Renault, you may well become the owner of a car, the parts for which are made using equipment from Voronezh.

6. Optical instruments.

Since the time of Galileo, optical instruments have been of enormous military importance. A high-quality spyglass has always been a rarity, so if such an item came across as a trophy, it was always included in a separate line. IN late XIX century, the importance of such devices increases, as new types of artillery appear (coastal and sea for long-range combat). Optics in the armed forces began to be used everywhere: sniper scopes, artillery binoculars, lenses and mirrors.

In Russia, the main defense enterprise is considered to be LZOS (Lytkarino Optical Glass Plant, founded in 1934). It produces night vision devices, aerospace-based lenses, and tank vision systems. The plant's leading position in the world market was ensured by its astronomical mirrors and lenses.

The owner of the main astronomical mirror, reaching a diameter of 2.6 m, is the National Observatory (Athens). The main mirrors for telescopes from LZOS were exported to Germany for the Institute of Astronomy. Max Planck (mirror diameter 1.23 m) and to Italy for the VST project (diameter 2.6 m). And, of course, the plant’s special pride is the main mirrors of the telescopes of the Greenwich Royal Observatory (Great Britain). If you enter the combination LZOS telescope in a search engine, then you will also have the opportunity to use the products of the Lytkarinsky plant.

7. Industrial lasers.

On the basis of the laboratories of the Polyus Research Institute and the Russian Academy of Sciences, in 1991 they created the IRE-Polyus company, which was going to implement developments in the field of laser materials and solid-state lasers. Gradually, employees became interested in amplifiers and fiber lasers, and the company’s activities were directed in a more promising direction.

A little later, V. Gapontsev, the founder of IRE-Polyus, opens the companies IPG Laser (Germany, 1995), IPG Fibertech (Italy, 1997), IPG Photonics Corporation (USA, Massachusetts, 1998). The headquarters of IPG becomes a company located in the United States, but one of the main working sites is located in the Moscow region (Fryazino). An analysis of Russian exports indicates that IPG has become a world leader in the production of industrial lasers not without the participation of the Russian branch of IPG (NTO IRE-Polyus).

8. Software.

The main consumers of Russian software are the countries of Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, EU member countries and German-speaking states.

Valentin Makarov, president of the Russoft association, explains that they conditionally divide software into three segments: licensed software (export is 40%), cross-border services (foreign deliveries - 50%) and work on instructions from foreign companies (10%). The association's orders continue to increase even in times of crisis. From the information provided by Russoft, it follows that in 2014 software was exported with a total value of $5.7 billion, which was 10% higher than the previous period.

Kaspersky Lab, which develops system protection programs, sells its products to 200 countries and, according to Gartner, IDC and Forrester, is one of the four leading companies offering software for protecting user devices. An analysis of Russian exports showed that in 2013 the company earned $667 million.

9. Transport services.

The Russian government has set itself a rather ambitious task: to increase the export of non-resource products.

2014 brought the state almost $66 billion for providing services outside its borders. A third of the funds ($21 billion) were earned through the provision of transport services (passenger and freight transportation). An analysis of Russian exports showed that the key source of income was the air delivery of passengers ($7 billion). The leading carrier companies are Aeroflot and Transaero, which transported 23.6 million people (Aeroflot) and 13 million (Transaero) during 2014.

After the increase in the value of the dollar, foreign travelers began to prefer transit flights through Russia, which offers the most favorable prices for air transportation services. This attitude allowed Aeroflot’s income to increase to 39.2% during 2014. The export of transport services in 2016 brought $15 billion to the country’s budget. But this type of service provides not only the delivery of passengers.

A third of the volume of transport services comes from cargo transportation. In this domain the best company UTair is recognized as the leader in helicopter transportation. In addition to trucks, the company's vehicles transport passengers (within the country). The UTair hangar houses more than 350 units of domestic and imported aircraft; the company’s helicopters are used to fulfill orders in many countries and regions. The UN can be named as a key partner.

Analysis of the export structure of Russian regions

Analysis of Russian exports made it possible to form a rating of supplies from various regions of the country, according to which the main exporter of gas and oil is Moscow (data for 10 months of 2016). During the first 10 months, goods totaling $93.1 billion were sold abroad from the capital, mainly gas (25% of total exports) and oil (37%). During this time, products worth $226.8 billion were exported from all over Russia.

In 20 out of 85 regions of the country, an increase in the number of supplies abroad was noted. The most significant indicators in Vladimir region, from where they sent wood and mechanical equipment to India, Algeria and Kazakhstan (export growth by 35.2% compared to the same period in 2015). The situation is similar in the Kaluga region: an increase in foreign trade by 30% compared to 2015. Among Russia's major exporters, the Republic of Sakha (19.4%) and the Rostov region (15.1%) have good growth rates.

2016 was marked by high levels of sales of agricultural goods. Russia was represented on the world market by 80 different regions: 67 supplied flour products, 58 supplied fish and meat products, 63 supplied vegetables and fruits. Russian production also uses the practice of processing imported agricultural raw materials, which do not grow in our country. After the necessary technological manipulations, the finished products are sent for export, accompanied by significant added value. This practice cannot be called an exception to the rule; for example, during 2016, 65 regions of the Russian Federation, having processed the fruits of the cocoa tree, sold the finished product abroad.

The most common goods for foreign trade are alcoholic beverages, water and flour products. An analysis of Russian exports shows that 70% of regions export dairy products, oilseed seeds, vegetables and fruits, feed and cocoa. Foreign trade in tobacco products, tobacco and other plant derivatives is well organized.

The export of the main product, grain, is highly concentrated. The largest supplier is the Rostov region, where three regions generate a significant volume of total grain exports (80%).

Goods with high added value are exported from different regions Russia and have a fairly low concentration. For example, an analysis of Russian exports shows Tula region the main supplier of mill products, and the volume of goods sold is only 19% of the total quantity. Finished flour products and fruit and vegetable products are exported mainly from the Moscow region (» 20%), and the bulk of meat and fish products are exported from Moscow (25%).

An analysis of Russian exports for 2016 made it possible to determine the top three leaders in foreign supplies of agricultural products - these are Krasnodar region and Moscow, but the absolute champion is still the Rostov region ($3,210 million).

Analyzing Russian exports requires a large amount of market information, which the enterprise often does not have. Therefore, it is worth turning to professionals. Our information and analytical company “VVS” is one of those that stood at the origins of the business of processing and adapting market statistics collected by federal departments. The company has 19 years of experience in providing product market statistics as information for strategic decisions, identifying market demand. Main client categories: exporters, importers, manufacturers, participants in commodity markets and B2B services business.

commercial vehicles and special equipment;

glass industry;

chemical and petrochemical industry;

Construction Materials;

medical equipment;

food industry;

production of animal feed;

electrical engineering and others.

Quality in our business is, first of all, the accuracy and completeness of information. When you make a decision based on data that is, to put it mildly, incorrect, how much will your loss be worth? When making important strategic decisions, it is necessary to rely only on reliable statistical information. But how can you be sure that this information is reliable? You can check this! And we will provide you with this opportunity.

Main competitive advantages our company are:

Data accuracy. A preliminary selection of foreign trade supplies, the analysis of which is carried out in the report, exactly coincides with the topic of the customer’s request. Nothing superfluous and nothing missing. As a result, we obtain correct calculations of market indicators and market shares of participants.

Preparation of turnkey reports and ease of working with them. Information is quickly perceived, since the tables and graphs are simple and understandable. Aggregated data on market participants is compiled into ratings of participants, and market shares are calculated. As a result, the time spent studying information is reduced and it is possible to immediately move on to making decisions that are “on the surface.”

The customer has the opportunity to receive part of the data free of charge in the form of a preliminary express assessment of the market niche.

This helps you navigate the situation and decide whether it’s worth studying deeper. We not only talk about the customer’s market niche, but also suggest the areas closest to him.

We give you the opportunity to find a solution in time - not to be confined to your product, but to discover profitable new areas of sales. Professional consultation with our industry managers at all stages of the transaction

. We are the creators of this niche of export-import analysis based on customs statistics, our almost 20 years of experience is the key to effective cooperation.

Attention!

The VVS company DOES NOT PERFORM CUSTOMS CLEARANCE OF GOODS AND DOES NOT CONSULT ON THESE ISSUES.

This article is for informational purposes only! We provide marketing services

on analysis of import and export flows of goods, research of commodity markets, etc.

You can familiarize yourself with the full list of our services.

In contact with

Classmates 2016 brought a lot of disappointments to entrepreneurs whose business is related to the commodity structure of Russian exports and imports. Foreign trade faced a number of difficulties, for which there were many reasons. It is appropriate to recall the devaluation of the ruble, the embargo, and difficulties with our own production. The combination of these and some other factors reflected the structure of Russian exports. At least, judging by the last five years, it was 2016 that had the worst indicators, even though the situation has improved somewhat since November and began to inspire some optimism among entrepreneurs. But how justified is it? This article

will tell you how the structure of Russian exports has changed by industry and individual goods, as well as what to expect, according to experts, in the near future.

What was the commodity structure of Russian exports in 2016?

The main product in the structure of Russian exports in 2016 was oil. According to a statement by A. Siluanov, head of the Ministry of Finance, a significant change has occurred, and value-added products have replaced raw materials industries to dominate Russia's exports.

D. Manturov, head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, speaks about the same thing. He noted that more than half of exports began to be occupied by value-added goods, rather than raw materials.

The former head of the Ministry of Finance, in turn, notes that the structure of Russia's exports still needs improvement. This is especially true in assessing the situation of non-resource products. The fact is that Russia exports only 40% of goods not related to gas, raw materials or oil, although the desired volumes in the overall structure should be 80%. But to achieve this, we need to build new cooperation chains with different countries such as Singapore, India or European countries. This strategy will make it possible to add non-commodity goods to Russia’s export structure.

If you look back at the immediate past, at 2016, it becomes clear that the most important economic partner for the Russian Federation was China, thanks to which the export of agricultural goods reached 7% in the structure of Russian exports. This indicates great prospects for cooperation with Eastern countries. Realizing this, Russia is making significant investments in this direction and has already increased them by almost ¼ over last year. There are many points of contact with Asian partners: gas, agriculture, defense, etc.

Structure of Russian exports for the first half of 2017

How did the structure of Russian exports change at the beginning of 2017? The total amount of exports increased to just over $168 billion, up almost 30% from the first half of last year.

Fuel and energy products became the predominant goods in the structure of Russian exports, and their percentage is 4.3 higher than the figure for the first half of 2016. By the way, not only the percentage of these goods in the export structure increased, but also their value and physical volumes, which increased by 38.3% and 3.6%, respectively. Thus, the largest increase in indicators occurred in such goods as coal (+10.5%), natural gas (+9.7%), diesel fuel (+4%), crude oil (+1.5%). Of course, an increase in the volume of some goods in the structure of Russian exports does not exclude a decrease in the volume of others. Motor gasoline demand was 25.5% lower than in the previous half of the year. The situation is slightly better for kerosene, which has lost 15.5% in the structure of Russian exports.

What is the situation in the structure of Russian exports of metals and metal products? Their value volume is almost no different from the figure for the first half of 2016 – 9.8%, which is only 0.1% less than in the first half of 2017. The goods themselves in this category increased their value by 30.8%, but lost their physical value - 3.9%. A more detailed examination reveals that the most noticeable decrease in physical volumes occurred in goods such as cast iron (-15.5%) and aluminum (-7.4%). And the largest increase in physical volumes occurred in such goods as copper and its alloys (+13.7%), ferroalloys (+11.3%), rolled flat iron and unalloyed steel (+6.6%).

Chemical products accounted for 5.7% in the structure of Russian exports in the first half of 2017, which is 1% lower than in January-June 2016. Their value increased by 10.3%. Physical added a little less – 1.1%. If we look at all this in more detail, we can find out that the physical volumes of inorganic chemical products (+28.8%), plastic goods (+26.6%) and fertilizers (+1.4%) increased.

Machinery and other equipment accounted for 4.9% in the structure of Russian exports in the first half of 2017, which is 1.2% lower than in January-June 2016. Their value increased by 4.2%. The largest increase in value volumes occurred in such goods as mechanical equipment (+24.6%) and medical equipment (30.1%). But electrical equipment decreased its indicator by 21.6%. The largest increase in physical volumes is observed for goods such as cars (+100%), but trucks are supplied much less frequently than in the first half of 2016 (-31.3%).

Food products and raw materials in the structure of Russian exports in the first half of 2017 amounted to 4.4%, which is 0.5% lower than in January-June 2016. Their value increased by 17.6% and 12.7%.

Timber and pulp and paper products in the structure of Russian exports in the first half of 2017 were 3.2%, which is 0.3% lower than in January-June 2016. Their physical volume increased by 6.2%. Physical volumes of lumber also increased (+13.1%). Volumes also decreased for pulp (-2.6%) and plywood (-2%).

In the structure of Russia's exports to the CIS in the first half of 2017, fuel and energy goods accounted for 34.4%, which is 1.8% lower than in January-June 2016. Their value volume increased by 20.3%, and their physical volume decreased by 5.1%. The volumes of crude oil (-23.7%) and electricity (-12.5%) decreased noticeably. Physical volumes of petroleum products (+37.8%) and natural gas (+3.8%) increased.

In the structure of Russian exports to the CIS in the first half of 2017, machinery and equipment accounted for 15.8%, which is 2% higher than in January-June 2016. Their value volume increased by 45.5%, the physical volume of ground transport increased noticeably (+80.5%), and this does not include railway and mechanical equipment (+27.8%). The physical volume of passenger cars lost 4.6%, but the volume increased trucks (+28,8 %).

The chemical industry in the structure of Russian exports to the CIS in the first half of 2017 amounted to 15.3%, which is 0.6% lower than in the first half of 2016. Their value and physical volumes increased respectively – 21.2% and 11.8%. The export volumes of such products as fertilizers (+57.5%), plastic goods (+7.4%), organic chemical products (+4.6%), and rubber (+3.6%) increased especially. The physical volume of inorganic chemical products (-16.1%) and pharmaceutical products (-7.6%) decreased.

Metals and metal products in the structure of Russian exports to the CIS in the first half of 2017 amounted to 12%, which is 0.4% lower than in January-June 2016. Their value increased by 31.2%. Physical added a little less – 9.1%. The export volumes of such goods as ferrous metals and products made from them increased (+9.1%), which includes ferroalloys (+100%), semi-finished iron and semi-finished products from unalloyed steel (+48.1%), rolled flat iron and unalloyed steel (+18.6%).

In the structure of Russian exports to the CIS in the first half of 2017, food products and raw materials intended for their production accounted for 10.3%, which is 0.3% lower than in January-June 2016. Their value increased by 22.1%. Physical added a little less – 10.1%. The most significant data: physical volumes of goods such as wheat (53%) and vegetable oil(+19%), but the volumes of milk and cream (22.8%), as well as cottage cheese and cheeses (-8.5%) decreased.

Timber and pulp and paper products in the structure of Russia's exports to the CIS in the first half of 2017 amounted to 4.3%, which is 0.1% lower than in January-June 2016. Their value volume increased by 24.1%, and physical volume – by 10.3%. At the same time, physical volumes of lumber (+8.1%), plywood (+6.9%) and cellulose (+3.5%) increased.

The role of oil in the commodity structure of Russian exports

In the structure of Russian exports, the main product is sunflower oil, because it is most valued as a product of processing oilseeds. Naturally, new varieties of oils are appearing, for example, soybean oil, but they cannot compete with sunflower oil, which invariably has the largest sales volumes both in the domestic market and as a product for export.

Why does vegetable oil have such stability in the commodity structure of Russia? What is the reason for this constant demand among the population? It is quite simple to answer these questions, because the demand for oil is determined by the preferences of the consumers themselves; over many years they have become accustomed to sunflower oil, it has become an integral ingredient, so no one sees the need to look for a replacement for it.

Approximately the same situation is developing with regard to Russian exports: long-term ties have been established with other countries that are accustomed to purchasing Russian sunflower oil. This is not surprising, because this product has excellent consumer properties and environmental friendliness. This provides it with stable high volumes in the structure of Russian exports.

Of course, sunflower oil is far from the only oil in the structure of Russian exports. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider the overall percentage of this category of goods in domestic exports, without including statistics on trade with the EAEU. So, what did we have in January-June 2017? Sunflower oil is in increasing demand, so its volumes increased to 133.2% compared to 2016. Soybean oil also shows high results in the structure of Russian exports – 109%. Rapeseed oil occupies a position between them in terms of growth - 119.2%, but volumes must also be indicated: sunflower oil - 1,100,862.5 tons, soybean oil - 249,575.5 tons, rapeseed oil - 119,300.1 tons.

To more clearly imagine the situation with different types of oil in the structure of Russian exports, you should pay attention to another indicator - revenue. Sunflower oil is again in the lead, since revenue growth was 126.5% (that is, in 2016 the revenue was 657,974.3 thousand dollars, and in 2017 it was 26.5% more - 832,126.5 thousand dollars). Soybean oil achieved results of 113.1%, amounting to 163,242.4 thousand dollars, and rapeseed oil at 97,919.3 thousand dollars reached 128.4%. Excellent results are shown by coconut and palm kernel oils, which increased revenue from $74 thousand to $1,042.3 thousand.

Of course, this state of affairs in the structure of Russian exports makes this area one of the priorities for domestic plant growers. Demand is increasing. Oils are used as food for animals and people, and are also used for various technical purposes. Oilseeds are increasingly in demand in the world, not excluding their seeds. Let's look at what is happening in the structure of Russian exports with this category of goods.

In the structure of Russian exports in the first half of 2017, seeds of various oilseeds had a volume of 715,042.8 tons, which is much more than in January-June 2016: 586,032.9 tons. Of course, this is an impressive figure, but it is important to take into account that not all varieties of seeds experienced growth in the structure of Russian exports. It should be noted that the physical volumes of seeds such as sunflower (4.236 times) and rapeseed (6.979 times) increased, but in a significantly smaller total quantity than sunflower.

And which seeds in the structure of Russian exports have reduced their volumes? Let's consider them without taking into account trade with the EAEU. Soybeans received a result that was 75.9% of what they had in January-June 2016. The situation with flax is somewhat better – 87.6%. There is also such a category as “other oilseeds”. It has a result of 180.8% when compared to last year.

Finally, in order to form a complete picture of the changes in oilseeds in the structure of Russian exports, it is worth looking at financial statistics. Soybeans, which had the financial equivalent of 89,041.3 thousand dollars in 2016, reached only 66,439.4 thousand dollars in 2017. Flax fell to 66,592.6 thousand dollars from last year's 75,451.5. Rapeseed has 9,664 thousand, which is much higher than the 1,356.8 thousand achieved last year. Sunflower is in the lead – $81,975.1 thousand, compared to last year’s figure of $22,514.6 thousand. The “other” category increased to 19,614.5 from 14,798.1 thousand dollars.

Grain in the structure of Russian exports in 2017

Today Russia has the largest number of areas for sowing. In addition, the soil itself is quite fertile, and climatic conditions do not in any way prevent the domestic grain industry from rapidly developing, occupying an important niche in the structure of Russian exports. There are many grain crops in Russia. They are usually grouped as follows:

food grains;

grain (wheat and rye) and cereal crops (rice, buckwheat and millet);

feed grains (corn, oats and barley).

When assessing the role of grain in the structure of Russian exports, one must first of all take into account the fact that crops are unevenly distributed throughout our country. Wheat is the undisputed leader, since it occupies approximately half of all areas intended for sowing. The most recent increase occurred in the two decades between 1991 and 2011, when wheat plantings increased by just under 13%. Feed grain crops also cannot be distributed evenly in the structure of Russian exports, because the largest areas are occupied by barley and oats, but corn lags far behind - about 3% of all land for planting is allocated to it.

Assessing the structure of Russia's exports, like any country affecting grain crops, can say a lot about the economic development of the state. The fact is that it always puts the main emphasis on providing food for its citizens, and only then, when there is no shortage of provisions, does it turn its attention to exports, that is, it sells the surplus to foreign partners. It should be noted that the structure of Russian exports was not always saturated with grain crops. There were both ups and downs. There are known periods when it was completely forbidden to include grain crops in the structure of Russian exports.

The period between the 19th and 20th centuries marks the time when Russia was able to become a leader in the production of bread from grain. It is not an exaggeration to say that 1/5 of the world's wheat was grown in Russia. But even then the structure of Russian exports included not only it. For example, domestic rye accounted for half of the world's reserves, and barley - a third. One fourth of the world's oats came from Russia.

But in the 1930s, a period of decline began, caused by forced collectivization, which negatively affected the presence of grain crops in the structure of Russian exports, or, more precisely, Soviet exports. Even significantly increased plans, requiring the annual production of 2 to 5 million tons of grain, depending on the circumstances, did not help. The Soviet government hoped in this way to attract foreign currency and thereby contribute to the industrialization of the state, as well as to restore the national economy, because these areas suffered greatly after the war.

But all these measures were doomed to failure, and grain crops did not increase their volumes in the structure of USSR exports. On the contrary, until the 1990s, grain imports significantly exceeded exports.

The difficult period for the structure of Russian exports did not end in the early 1990s. The truly favorable phase began around 1994, when seven million tons were exported, which allowed Russia to once again become one of the leaders in grain sales on the world market. In particular, our country is among the top ten countries that sell the largest volumes of wheat, and among the top five exporters of barley.

The beginning of the 2000s was ambiguous for grain in the structure of Russian exports. On the one hand, Russia managed to sell 18 million tons abroad out of 87 produced domestically. But domestic exports faced new problem– grain prices fell, and therefore sales did not bring significant financial benefits.

By 2009, grain was able to take a strong position in the structure of Russian exports. Finally, it was possible to minimize the import of grain crops. The sale of grain to Arab states became a priority.

2011-2012 allowed grain to set a certain record in the structure of Russian exports - 26.5 million tons exported abroad. And this despite the fact that in the previous year there was a drought, which is why the situation with grain crops did not promise good results, so grain exports were completely canceled for the whole year.

As for wheat, in the structure of Russian exports in 2015-2016, it significantly prevailed over other grains, amounting to approximately ¾ of their total volume and reaching 27 and a half million tons. Corn follows with a more modest 15%, with just over five million tonnes, and rounding out the top three is barley, with three million tonnes, accounting for 8% of the total grain volume.

The most active consumers of this category of goods were: Italy, Morocco, Greece, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Italy and Egypt. It is important to note that wheat, which predominates in the structure of Russian exports, is most in demand in Italy.

Agricultural machinery for export

What are the prospects for Russian agricultural machinery in the coming years? There are specific plans for this, which are written down in a 2017 document called “Strategy for the development of domestic agricultural machinery until 2030.”

What is it talking about? What are the highest priority goals for Russian agricultural machinery?

Agricultural machinery should occupy at least 4/5 of the domestic market and at least ½ of these export volumes.

The production capacity available today must be 100% utilized. In addition, their number needs to be increased, as well as to attract additional workers into this industry.

The pace of agricultural machinery production in Russia should exceed the world average.

These are not just numbers that reflect the wishes expressed by the government regarding the development of Russia’s export structure. This real results, which can be achieved by 2030, according to research by experts. The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade notes that today domestic technology has already managed to prove itself in the domestic market and take a leading position. And although the desired position in Russia’s export structure does not yet exist, everything is moving in this direction at a very encouraging pace. The geography of Russian exports is constantly expanding, and great prospects are promised by the fact that domestic equipment is already being purchased in such a developed countries, like Canada, Germany and the USA. Moreover, these volumes are increasing, and demand in these countries has already grown by one and a half times over the period under review.

In Russia, agricultural engineering has great prospects, since it is really in great demand. Firstly, we have a significant shortage of technology. For example, if in Canada one hectare is processed with the help of 16 machines, then in Russia today only 3 tractors perform the same task. Secondly, 70% of domestic equipment has long been operating beyond the established service life; in other words, it is old and worn out. Thirdly, agricultural land is growing and farms are becoming larger, so the model line needs to evolve. Equipment with high power and productivity is required - these are precisely the advantages that distinguish domestic machines.

At the same time, it is important that domestic components are used in the machines, which will have a positive impact on the Russian economy.

The priority task in the agricultural machinery industry is to replace imported goods with domestic ones. And activities in this direction are being carried out quite successfully. In particular, a little more than half of all equipment used in agriculture is produced in Russia. Moreover, this indicator is not stable: it is constantly increasing. For example, in 2016 it increased by 59.1% compared to 2015, and also added 7.7 billion rubles to the structure of Russian exports.

It should be noted that the subsidy program has proven itself to be quite effective, but this is a temporary measure that should gradually cease to operate.

Today, there is still a lot of work to be done in order for the domestic agricultural machinery industry to occupy its niche in the structure of Russian exports. Today, its indicators are insufficient and incomparable with those demonstrated by the world's leading manufacturers.

But it is expected that in the near future work will be done to ensure conditions for equal competition, as well as for a greater inclusion of domestic cars in the structure of Russian exports.

There are many obstacles. Domestic enterprises are burdened with a higher tax burden; they have to compensate for borrowed funds and pay for expensive raw materials and components, so the cost of Russian agricultural machinery itself is significantly higher than that of any foreign competitor. In addition, foreign manufacturers ensure a high volume of their products in the export structure through subsidies, benefits and other incentive measures from the state. Russian government There is still work to be done in this direction.

Taking this into account, the issue of filling Russia’s export structure with agricultural machinery becomes secondary. In the near future, a more pressing task is being set - to promote an increase in demand within the state, and only then - to engage in the formation of the structure of Russian exports.

There is an opinion that the defense industry has the necessary resources to develop agricultural machinery or at least components for it. Theoretically, this is possible to implement, but in practice, established and inflexible work mechanisms, the complexity of pricing, the length of time it takes to make a decision and other circumstances hinder it, because it will be necessary to revise the structure of work in one industry in order to transform it into another. But isolated examples are already found.

Certain results in this direction have been achieved. There are already production facilities that produce components and even the entire technological production cycle, which consists of laser cutting, bending, rolling, welding, assembly, painting, etc. Thus, we can count on the fact that in the future agricultural machinery will not only be able to provide our country with technology, but also achieve required volumes in the structure of Russian exports.

The structure of Russia's exports is determined by detailed analysis, which requires a large amount of market information, which organizations often do not have. Therefore, it is worth turning to professionals. Our information and analytical company “VVS” is one of those that stood at the origins of the business of processing and adapting market statistics collected by federal departments. The company has 19 years of experience in providing product market statistics as information for strategic decisions, identifying market demand. Main client categories: exporters, importers, manufacturers, participants in commodity markets and B2B services business.

To establish the country’s economic dependence on imports, it is necessary to consider the commodity structure of imports of the Russian Federation, which is presented in Table 1.

Analyzing the data presented in the table, we can talk about a high degree of dependence economic activity Russia from the import of goods. For example, the share of machinery and equipment in 2016 accounted for 49.79% (for comparison in 2015 – 54.54%). In other words, the value of imports of these products compared to 2015 decreased in 2016 by 4.75%. The share of chemical industry products in the commodity structure of imports in 2016 was 12.78% (in 2015 – 20.31%). Thus, we come to the conclusion that the value of imports of chemical industry products in 2016 decreased by 7.53% compared to 2015.

As can be seen from the table data, the share of imports of food products and raw materials for their production in 2016 amounted to 7.77% (in 2015 - 8.23%). The value of imports in 2016 decreased by 0.46%. In addition, it has changed specific gravity textiles and footwear per year. In 2016, the value of imports of these goods decreased by 0.36% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 4.97% (in 2015 – 5.33%). At the same time, the share of metals and products made from them in the commodity structure of imports in 2016 was 6.64% (in 2015 – 6.68%). This means that the value volume of this product group in 2016. compared to 2015, decreased by 8.55%.

The data presented in Table 1 indicate that our country’s economy is still highly dependent on imports of goods. It should also be said that resolving this problem requires the development of a competent, comprehensive approach that would be based on an in-depth analysis of all sectors of the Russian economy, based on the results of which it will be possible to make certain decisions on the organization and implementation of the import substitution policy.

Table 1

Commodity structure of imports of the Russian Federation

Source: M.V. Dubinin PROBLEMS OF STRENGTHENING THE FINANCIAL IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY AND FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF RUSSIA UNDER THE POLICY OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION // Trends and problems in the Russian economy: theoretical and practical aspects [Electronic resource]: materials of the All-Russian. scientific-practical Conf., March 23, 2017 / ed. S.A. Kurgansky. – Irkutsk: BSU Publishing House, 2017. – 293 p. Main macroeconomic indicators of Russia (2000-2014) Dynamics of main economic indicators of Russia in 2013-2016. Use of Russia's GDP in 2011-2016 Average annual number of employees in Russia by industry in 2015 State of the Russian economy based on the results of 2016 Criticism of Russian capitalism Impoverishment of the Russian population and the need for a new social criterion for assessing living standards Deindustrialization of the Russian economy Reindustrialization of the Russian economy

About the current situation in the economy of the Russian Federation

in January 2019

(in terms of foreign economic activity)

In January 2019, average world prices for key commodities showed multidirectional dynamics - price quotes for oil and nickel increased compared to December 2018, prices for aluminum and copper, on the contrary, decreased compared to last month.

The average oil price in January 2019 was $59.8 per barrel. (average price according to Argus agency), having increased by 4.2% by December 2018. Compared to January 2018, the price decreased by 12.8%. The key reasons for the rise in oil prices were compliance by OPEC+ countries with agreements to reduce production volumes, as well as the difficult geopolitical situation in Venezuela.

The export duty rate on oil, calculated in accordance with Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated March 29, 2013 No. 276 and the amendments made to it in November 2014, from February 1, 2019 amounted to 80.7 US dollars per ton, decreasing by 9 .3% compared to January 2019 (USD 89.0 per ton).

Aluminum prices decreased in January 2019 compared to December 2018 (according to the London Metal Exchange) by 3.5% to $1,854/t, copper - by 2.2% to $5,939/t. Nickel prices showed a moderate increase compared to the previous month by 6.3% to $11,523 per ton. Compared to January 2018, prices for aluminum decreased by 16.1%, copper by 15.9%, and nickel by 10.4 percent.

A factor that corrects prices downward, in past period was the overall weak growth rate of both the global economy and China (China's published GDP statistics for 2018 show a slowdown in its growth rate). For aluminum, an additional factor driving down prices was the lifting of American sanctions against RusAl, which increased supply on the world market.

At the same time, nickel prices increased in January under the influence of a decrease in metal inventories, as well as a reduction in part production capacity Brazilian company Vale.

Average commodity prices in January 2019

Sources: London Metal Exchange, Argus Media, World Bank.

Based on the results of January-December 2018 foreign trade turnover amounted to 687.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.5% compared to January-December 2017. Exports of goods increased by 25.6% to $449.3 billion, imports by 4.7% to $238.2 billion.

In the geographical structure of Russia’s foreign trade, the European Union occupies a special place (42.8% of Russian trade or $294.2 billion in January-December 2018). Trade turnover with the EU increased by 19.3%, with an increase in exports of 28.3% and imports of 2.7 percent.

The second group in terms of foreign trade turnover in January-December 2018 are the countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (31.0% of Russian foreign trade or 213.2 billion US dollars). Trade turnover with APEC countries increased by 19.8%, including exports by 34.7% and imports by 5.7 percent.

Trade turnover with the CIS countries increased by 10.8% to $80.8 billion, including with the EAEU countries - by 9.0% to $56.1 billion.

The balance of foreign trade between Russia and all countries increased by 62.1% to 211.2 billion US dollars.

The foreign trade imbalance coefficient (the ratio of balance to turnover) in January-December 2018 increased to 30.7% compared to 22.3% in January-December 2017.

Based on the results of January-December 2018, a positive balance was observed in Russia’s trade with most of the most important groups of countries. At the level of individual states, Russia had a significant negative balance in trade with France (-1.9 billion US dollars), Vietnam (-1.2 billion US dollars), Thailand (-1.1 billion US dollars ) and Spain (-1.0 billion US dollars).

Structure of foreign trade turnover by groups of countries in January-December 2018
(January-December 2017)
(according to customs statistics, percentage)

Export of goods at the end of January-December 2018 amounted to 449.3 billion US dollars and increased by 25.6% compared to January-December 2017.

Raw materials export in January-December 2018 increased by 33.0% to 214.3 billion US dollars compared to 2017, which was due to an increase in both contract prices for hydrocarbons (crude oil - by 34.3%, natural gas - by 22.5%), and physical volumes of supplies (natural gas - by 3.7%, crude oil - by 2.9%). As a result, the value of oil supplies increased by $35.7 billion, natural gas (in gaseous state) by $10.5 billion.

Non-resource exports in January-December 2018 amounted to $235.0 billion, an increase of 19.5% compared to 2017. The largest increase in value volumes was observed in relation to the export of petroleum products - by 19.9 billion US dollars (+34.1%).

Non-resource non-energy exports in January-December 2018 compared to 2017 increased by 11.7% to 149.4 billion US dollars. The largest growth was recorded in semi-finished steel products - by 1.9 billion US dollars, lumber - by 0.6 billion US dollars, cast iron - by 0.5 billion US dollars, refined copper - by 0.48 billion US dollars, wood pulp - by 0.4 billion US dollars, hot-rolled flat steel - by 0.38 billion US dollars.

In January-December 2018, all groups of countries were characterized by positive dynamics of Russian exports. Thus, the volume of supplies to the countries of the European Union increased by 28.3 percent to $204.9 billion, including to Poland (+42.0%), Germany (+32.5%) and the Netherlands (+22 .1%) - as a result of an increase in the value of exports of petroleum products, crude oil, natural gas and coal.

Exports to APEC countries increased in January-December 2018 compared to 2017 by 34.8%, including to China (+44.1%) due to increased supplies of crude oil and refined copper to the Republic of Korea (+ 44.8%) - petroleum products and natural gas, to Japan (+19.5%) - natural gas and crude oil.

The growth rate of Russian exports to the CIS countries at the end of 2018 amounted to 13.5% (up to 54.6 billion US dollars). The largest increase in the volume of Russian supplies is typical for exports to Ukraine (+19.9%) - due to an increase in supplies of petroleum products, coal, fuel elements (fuel
for nuclear power plants), to Belarus (+17.2%) - due to increased exports of crude oil and petroleum products.

Fuel and energy products continue to dominate the commodity structure of exports, their share in January-December 2018 increased compared to 2017
by 4.5 percentage points to 63.8%. The value of exports of fuel and energy goods increased by 35.2% to $286.7 billion. The positive cost dynamics are due to both an increase in average contract prices (for coal - by 14.5%, crude oil - 34.3%, petroleum products - 32.6%, natural gas in the gaseous state - by 22.5%), and physical volumes of supplies of coal - by 10.0%, natural gas - by 3.7%, crude oil - by 2.9%, petroleum products - by 1.1 percent.

The basis of Russian exports, in addition to fuel and energy goods, are metals and products made from them, chemical products and rubber; these three groups in January-December 2018 accounted for a total of 79.7% of the value of Russian exports. The largest growth (by value) was observed in ammonia (+56.9%), acyclic hydrocarbons (+52.1%), cast iron (+32.2%), semi-finished steel products (+31.9%), mixed fertilizers ( +23.8%), nitrogen fertilizers (+19.2%), refined copper (+13.1%).

The value volume of Russian import at the end of 2018 showed positive dynamics and amounted to 238.2 billion US dollars, which is 4.7% higher than in 2017. The strongest growth was observed in the import of certain types of mechanical and technical products, in particular, computers and their units, electric telephones, passenger cars and their parts, aircraft, as well as new tires and certain types of fruit.

Imports of consumer goods in January-December 2018 increased compared to 2017 by $2.4 billion (or +3.9%) to $63.8 billion.
Import sanctioned goodsin January-December 2018 compared to the previous year in value terms decreased by 2.5% to $13.7 billion.

At the end of 2018, compared to 2017, Russia’s imports from the EU countries increased by 2.7%, APEC - by 5.7%, and the CIS - by 5.4 percent.

The main item of Russian import remains machinery, equipment and vehicles, purchases of which at the end of 2018 compared to 2017 increased by 2.0% to 112.6 billion US dollars, the share of this product group in the structure of domestic imports amounted to 47.3 percent. Including imports of motor vehicle bodies increased by 33.1%, computers and their units - by 16.6%, parts of motor vehicles - by 12.9%, electric telephone and telegraph apparatus - by 12.4%, passenger cars cars - by 8.4 percent.

The basis of Russian imports, in addition to machinery, equipment and vehicles, are chemical products and rubber, food products and agricultural raw materials; the share of these three product groups in January-December 2018 in the structure of Russian purchases amounted to 78.0 percent.

In value terms, imports of food products increased by 2.4%, chemical products - by 8.1%, including aluminum oxide and hydroxide - by 44.0%, polyethers and resins - by 23.4%, apples and pears - by 20.6%, serums and vaccines - by 10.6%, new tires - by 10.6 percent.

Far abroad countriesare Russia's main trading partners. At the end of 2018, their share in trade turnover was 88.2%, in exports - 87.8%, in imports - 89.0 percent.

Russia's foreign trade turnover with non-CIS countries in January-December 2018 amounted to 606.6 billion US dollars and increased relative to 2017
by 18.4 percent. Exports increased by 27.5% to $394.7 billion, imports by 4.6% to $211.9 billion.

The leading positions among the EU member countries are occupied by Germany, the Netherlands (largely due to large volumes of re-export of Russian hydrocarbons) and Italy, which account for 45.5% of foreign trade turnover with this group of countries.

The most important foreign trade partners among APEC countries are China, the USA, Japan and the Republic of Korea, which at the end of 2018 accounted for 84.1% of foreign trade turnover with this group of countries.

At the end of 2018, China is Russia’s largest foreign trade partner (15.7% of Russia’s trade turnover or $108.3 billion). Russian exports to China amounted to $56.1 billion, an increase of 44.1% by 2017.

The share of Russia's other largest partners in 2018 was 8.7% for Germany, 6.9% for the Netherlands, 3.9% for Italy, 3.7% for Turkey.

Foreign trade turnover of Russia with CIS countries at the end of 2018, it increased by 10.7% to $80.8 billion. Russia's exports to the CIS countries increased by 13.5% to $54.6 billion, and Russia's imports from the CIS countries increased by 5.3% to $26.2 billion. There was a trade surplus with all CIS countries in 2018.

Sanctioned goods- goods prohibited for import into the territory of the Russian Federation from the USA, EU, Canada, Australia, Norway, Ukraine, Albania, Montenegro, Iceland and Liechtenstein in accordance with Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 08/07/2014 No. 778.

After an exceptionally unfavorable year in 2016, Russian foreign trade, following the economy, began to grow. The revival of foreign trade was facilitated by higher prices for raw materials, stabilization of the ruble exchange rate and increased production rates. Let's look at how the structure of Russia's imports has changed, and also touch on exports.

Structure of Russian exports and imports in 2017

In the first half of 2017, foreign trade turnover grew at a weak acceleration. Over six months, it reached $270.4 billion and increased by 28.1% compared to the same period in 2016. The positive changes in foreign trade that began in the second half of 2016 have become more pronounced.

The decisive factor was the rise in oil prices due to the reaching of agreements by producing countries to reduce oil sales volumes. Thanks to a reduction in total exports, oil prices began to rise in the fall of 2016, and in February 2017, the cost of one barrel of Brent oil exceeded $56.1. In May, oil-producing countries extended the agreement for another three quarters - until the end of March. next year. The total volume of cuts was maintained by producers at 1.8 million barrels per day to remove excess supply from the market and maintain price reductions.

Along with oil prices, the cost of other goods has increased: hydrocarbons, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, gold and semi-finished products. As a result, the ruble began to strengthen relative to other currencies. At the beginning of the second quarter, the dollar was worth 56.4 rubles, the euro – 60.4 rubles. But soon the value of the currency in rubles began to decline again.

The growth of foreign trade was facilitated by an increase in production volumes. According to Rosstat, industrial production in the first half of 2017 increased by 2% compared to the same period last year. The computer production industry showed unpredictably high results - the total value of their products amounted to 13.7 billion rubles (the volume increased by more than 70%). More modest indicators were observed among producers of sunflower oil (+18.9%), knitwear (+24%), and petroleum coke (+30.8%).

The state, as before, does its best to support big business, which ensures growth in many sectors, for example, in agriculture. Funds are also allocated to support exports; for example, the Ministry of Industry and Trade allocated 26 billion rubles for this in 2017.

Despite the fact that the ruble exchange rate increased in the first half of the year (which is unprofitable for those involved in exporting products abroad), export volumes continued to grow.

According to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, in the first half of the year, export growth amounted to 28.7% and reached $168.6 billion. Moreover, the largest increase compared to the first months of 2016 was recorded in months such as January (+46.8%) and March (+34.9%).

The stabilization of the ruble exchange rate stimulated the growth of imports, which amounted to $101.8 billion in the first half of 2017 (increased by 27.2% compared to the first half of 2016). The increase in imports was facilitated by a decrease in inflation and a slow but clear recovery in domestic demand. A special index of the Ministry of Economic Development, developed to assess consumer demand, turned out to be the most high level over the past three years. Consumer activity of Russians has returned to the pre-crisis level of 2014.

The resumption of imports indicates that domestic enterprises have adapted to operating conditions during sanctions and the food embargo. It took business very little time to establish new connections after the introduction of a ban on the supply of goods from the European Union, USA, Canada and other countries in 2014. New ones are appearing in place of the old supplying countries, although it cannot be said that other suppliers are more economically profitable and provide goods of equal quality.

Commodity structure of Russian imports in 2017

The most significant increase in imports was recorded in certain species engineering products, in particular industrial and laboratory equipment, aircraft, parts of motor vehicles, as well as pharmaceuticals.

In the structure of Russian imports, the percentage of investment goods increased by 1.4 points - to 26%, consumer goods, on the contrary, decreased by two points - to 27.5%.

The volume of imports of consumer goods in the first half of 2017 increased by $4.3 billion compared to 2016 (an increase of 18.5%) and reached $27.8 billion. Most a big increase fixed:

in the import of medicines prepared for retail sale (+24.1% or $744.7 million);

in the import of butter and milk pastes - twice (by $153.7 million);

in the import of leather shoes - by 31.6% (by $150.6 million);

in the import of insecticides and herbicides prepared for retail sale - by 23.2% (by $114.7 million).

Picture 1. Commodity structure of Russian imports.

Various ways of circumventing sanctions led to the fact that the import of sanctioned goods in the first half of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016 in value terms increased by 23.9% (to $6.6 billion).

Let us note that the slogan of import substitution was perceived by a number of manufacturers as something absolute (as replacement at any cost). Although at all times there was a division of labor associated with conditions and experience. Only a spoiled gentleman with plenty of money could afford to grow pineapples in Central Russia. The economy forced people to buy and produce what was profitable, stimulating trade.

In the structure of Russian imports, the volume of imports of agricultural goods and food from Turkey in the first half of 2017 amounted to 347.5 thousand tons (371.5 million dollars), increasing by 58.7% compared to the same period in 2016. More than 72 thousand tons of tangerines and clementines, over 57 thousand tons of lemons, about 25 thousand tons of oranges, and almost 18 thousand tons of grapefruits were imported. This jump occurred due to amendments made to the list of Turkish products prohibited for import into the Russian Federation.

The timely adjustment was related to the economic situation. For example, in late autumn, when the cost of own vegetable production has increased, the import of high-quality and cheaper tomatoes from Turkey can be authorized.

In the first half of 2017, the share of non-CIS countries in trade turnover was 87.7%, in the structure of exports - 87.0%, in the structure of Russian imports - 88.8%.

Figure 2 shows the distribution of the share of Russian imports and exports by its main trading partners:

Figure 2 . Russia's main trading partners among non-CIS countries in the first half of 2017 (billion dollars).

In the first half of 2017, compared to the first half of 2016, Russian imports increased sharply: from EU countries - by 23.7%, APEC - by 32.0%, CIS - by 28.3%.

The share of non-CIS countries in the value of imports in the first half of 2017 decreased by 0.1% compared to 2016 and amounted to 88.8%. The share of CIS countries for this period is more than 11%.

Machinery, equipment and vehicles continue to be a significant item in the structure of Russian imports. The volume of their purchases in the first half of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016 increased by 33.8% to $47.4 billion. Moreover, the share of this group of goods in the structure of Russian imports increased by more than 2% to 46.9%. Imports grew the most:

industrial and laboratory equipment (+ 77.1%);

aircraft (helicopters and airplanes) (+50.9%);

motor parts for vehicles (+ 44.8%);

computers and their units (+ 35.8%);

telephone and telegraph devices (+ 22.6%).

In addition to the import of machinery, equipment and vehicles to Russia, the import of chemical industry products, rubber, food products and agricultural raw materials continued. Their share among goods purchased by the Russian Federation in the first half of 2017 was 78.7%. In value terms increased:

import of food products by more than 15%;

import of chemical products – by 19%.

This is due to increased imports:

butter - twice;

pork – by 37.9%;

tires – by 37.8%;

various types cheeses and cottage cheese – by 27.2%;

medications – by a little more than 24%;

insecticides and herbicides - by almost 23.2%;

serums, vaccines - by almost 22%.

Non-CIS countries are Russia's main trading partners. Their share in the trade turnover of the Russian Federation in the first half of 2017 was almost 90%, in the structure of exports - 87%, in the structure of imports - 88.8%.

Russia's foreign trade turnover with non-CIS countries in the first half of 2017 amounted to $235.5 billion and increased by 28.5% compared to 2016. Exports increased by almost 30% (to $145.8 billion), imports by 27% (to $89.7 billion).

The leaders among the EU member states were Germany and the Netherlands (largely due to the high volumes of re-export of Russian hydrocarbons), as well as Italy, whose share accounted for more than 46% of the total foreign trade turnover with the EU group of countries.

Russia's main foreign trade partners among APEC countries are China, the USA, Japan and the Republic of Korea; in the first half of 2017, their share accounted for more than 83% of total foreign trade turnover.

According to the results of the first half of 2017, China became the largest foreign trade partner of the Russian Federation (more than 14% of trade turnover or $38.4 billion). Domestic exports to China amounted to $18.2 billion, an increase of 39.5% compared to the first half of 2016.

The percentage of participation of other major partners in this period was 8.5 for Germany, 7.7 for the Netherlands and 4.2 for Italy. The commodity structure of Russia's exports and imports is shown in Figure 3:

Figure 3 . Commodity structure of Russian exports and imports in 2016.

The share of CIS countries in the structure of exports and imports of goods is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4 . Share of CIS countries in Russian foreign trade (billion dollars).

The growth of domestic foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries in the first half of 2017 increased by more than 27%, reaching $33.1 billion. Russia's exports to the CIS countries increased by 26.5% to $21.8 billion, and imports from the CIS countries by 28.3% to $11.3 billion. In the first half of 2017, the Russian Federation had a trade surplus with all CIS countries.

In the commodity structure of Russia's exports to the CIS countries (Figure 5), the share of machinery, equipment and vehicles, metals and products made from them has become higher. At the same time, the share of fuel and energy products, chemical products and rubber, food products and agricultural raw materials, wood and pulp and paper products became lower.

In the commodity structure of Russia's imports from the CIS countries, the share of metals and products made from them, and mineral products has increased. The share of machinery, equipment and vehicles, chemical products, textiles and footwear, food products and agricultural raw materials has become lower.

Figure 5 . Commodity structure of Russian imports and exports to the CIS countries

What will be the structure of Russian imports: forecast for 2018

In 2017–2018, imports of goods will continue to increase by an average of 3.6% per year in real terms. Import volumes will be $212 billion in 2017 and $223 billion in 2018.

In the commodity structure of imports, the share of machinery, equipment and vehicles will increase - from 44.3% in 2015 to 46.1% in 2018. The share of investments, which decreased in 2015 to 23.3% against 25.2% in 2014, will return to its previous level. The growth rate of investment imports will outpace the growth of consumer and intermediate imports and will average approximately 5% in 2017-2018. At the same time, the share of investment imports in the forecast period will not yet reach the level of 2014.

The average growth rate of consumer imports is estimated to be 3.1%. After 2016, the share of consumer goods will begin to decline annually by 0.5% due to an increase in investment imports and increasingly high-quality import substitution in consumption.

Imports of intermediate products, representing a third of imported goods, will grow the slowest, averaging 2.6% per year. The contribution of intermediate imports will remain unchanged.

The dynamics of exports and imports will lead to fluctuations in the trade balance. In 2016, the trade balance fell to $130 billion, and by 2018 it will increase to $142 billion.

Import intensity national economy will decrease from 14.2% in 2017 to 13.1% in 2018.

The current account surplus in the base case forecast will increase from $62 billion in 2015 to $73 billion in 2018. The main reason for this will be an increase in nominal growth in exports of goods (from -31% in 2015 to +6% in 2018) with a simultaneous increase in imports of goods (from -36% in 2015 to +5% in 2018). As a result, by the end of the forecast period the trade balance will decrease from $146 billion to $142 billion. The balance of services deficit will decrease from $39 billion in 2015 to $21 billion in 2018. At the same time, the national currency will weaken (the real effective exchange rate will decline to 1.8%). The weakening of the real exchange rate of the ruble during this period will curb the increase in the current account deficit. In the future, the national currency is expected to strengthen (the real exchange rate of the ruble will increase by 2.9% in 2018), which will lead to a reduction in the current account.

Net capital outflow under the base case will decline and will amount to $50 billion in 2018.

The base version of the forecast predicts an increase in foreign exchange reserves during the forecast period from $6 billion in 2017 to $20 billion in 2018.

Requires studying a large amount of information about the market, which the company often does not have. Therefore, it is worth turning to professionals. Our information and analytical company “VVS” is one of those that stood at the origins of the business of processing and adapting market statistics collected by federal departments.

Quality in our business is, first of all, the accuracy and completeness of information. When you make a decision based on data that is, to put it mildly, incorrect, how much will your loss be worth? When making important strategic decisions, it is necessary to rely only on reliable statistical information. But how can you be sure that this information is reliable? You can check this! And we will provide you with this opportunity.