Tennis strategy “Betting on outsiders. Game betting strategies Large bet on an outsider

Many bettors don't even think about betting money on a potentially losing team.


Bookmakers put high odds on outsiders, but the possibility of their victory is so small that you don’t want to waste money. But sometimes everything changes, and such bets help you win big money.

When should you bet on outsiders? There are several reasons to bet on the team or athlete that most people predict will merge. Just imagine what kind of money you can get if you predict the victory of an obvious outsider; sometimes the odds exceed 10-60.

Betting on outsiders

All strategies for betting on outsiders are based on simple mathematics. If you bet on the favorites, you win often, but not much. If you bet on outsiders, you rarely win, but you win a lot.

So that you understand that betting on a weak team is also profitable, let’s look at the example of one of the matches with a bookmaker:

Let's say we allocate $100 and bet on the favorites 100 times, with the approximate odds as shown in the image.

In 80% of games, the winner will be the favorite, i.e. we get $128. Now let's imagine that bets are placed on an outsider with odds of 5.68.

You can also bet $1 per 100 games. Let's assume that only 25% of the time the weak team will win. It comes out to $142, and this is not yet the highest odds for outsiders.

Do you understand what the benefit is? You bet the same way, you get winnings less often, but they are larger, so you remain in the black. But you don’t need to place such bets on absolutely all games.

Bet on outsiders:

1. When a favorite is overvalued, this happens often, since bookmakers rely on the opinions of clients. Sometimes, through the press and television, people are told that a certain athlete will be the winner, they place numerous bets, and the bookmaker reduces the odds. It’s just difficult to identify such cases, you need to be a pro.
2. When it’s not a serious tournament, teams that were supposed to lose often win in friendly matches. This happens by various reasons, the favorite does not waste energy, provides points to the team, or the match is generally fixed. In serious competitions there is a desire to become a champion.
3. When a rematch is held, the clear favorite in the next meeting of athletes or teams will be the one who won the first meeting. However, there is one caveat here. The previous winner may be overly confident in his victory, and the team that is given a second chance will take advantage of it with maximum effort.
4. In LIVE mode, you can watch how the favorites lose ground and the outsiders come forward. Naturally, the odds will change dramatically, but with a small account you can manage to make favorable rate. Real pros, watching the first few minutes of the game, can already determine how the entire match will go.

Not everyone can decide to bet, for example, on the Russian team when it meets the Brazilian team.

Naturally, bookmakers will put high odds on Russia, since it will be an outsider. But if this is not the World Championship, then anything can happen; high-profile victories are not uncommon in the history of sports.

Betting on an underdog in football can bring huge profits, but for this to happen, you will have to choose only those matches that a weak team can actually win. Try different tactics, professionals also bet on those who should lose the game.

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The football portal continues to introduce its readers to basic strategies for betting on sporting events. Today we will talk about such betting strategy as - Catch up with the outsider . We have already talked about the catch-up strategy itself in one of the previous articles - link.

The essence of this strategy is to bet on the obvious outsider of the match with a positive handicap. However, this strategy must be used in the mode LIVE , this is what will allow you to stay in the black. Let's look at this whole strategy with an example.

Example of using a strategy

For let's take an example Spanish championship. In the first round Barcelona and Betis met. You can place a bet on this event at any bookmaker's office.

Bookmakers accepted a bet on Betis (+3) with odds of 2.1. For example, we have a bank of 100 dollars.

We place a bet of $5 on Betis (+3).

Already in the 6th minute, Barça takes the lead and the odds on Betis (+4) become 2. We bet $10 on this.

By the 57th minute, Barca crushes Betis with a score of 5:1. The handicap on Betis (+5) has a coefficient of 2.5. We place a bet - 20 dollars.

As a result, the match ended with a score of 6:2. We were able to earn:

Betting expenses - $35

Return - 10 dollars

Winning - $50

As a result, we are in the black and raised our bank by $25.

For example, let's take another match of the 7th round Celta - Barcelona. Before the game, the bet on Celta (+2.5) was with odds of -2.4.

We place a bet Celta (+2.5) - $5.

After the first half, Celta beat Barça with a score of 3:0. Now the bet on Celta (-2.5) has a coefficient of 3.3. You can also bet 5 dollars and no matter the outcome you will remain in the black.

Beginners in betting often prefer to bet on favorites, based on the fact that they are more likely to win. However, many players choose the strategy of betting against the favorite (on the outsider), considering it more effective.

The main reason is favorable odds. For a match where one of the teams is noticeably stronger than the opponent, the bookmaker, expecting a large flow of bets on the favorite, lowers the odds for his victory and increases the odds for the weaker team. In most cases, by the beginning of the game, due to the “load” on the favorite, this tendency only intensifies.

Because of the load, it is common advice to bet on the favorite at the time the line is set, and on the underdog before the match.

All this leads to the fact that the bookmaker overestimates the odds on the outsider relative to the real probability, and the bet on the underdog becomes “valuable”. In this case, the bettor has an advantage over the bookmaker at a distance.

Features of the strategy

1. Selection of competitions. We recommend placing bets in leading championships. This is due to the large volumes of money bet by players on matches in top leagues, which affects the growth of odds on the underdog.
2. Bookmaker selection important for any strategy. To gain an advantage over the bookmaker in a long-term confrontation, tenths and hundredths of the difference in odds matter. Practice shows that if the odds for the favorite differ slightly from different bookmakers, then the “scatter” for the underdog can be quite large.
3. Blindly following a strategy without serious analysis using statistics, one’s own knowledge, and intuition is not permissible. The main factor in selection is motivation, which can be due to a variety of reasons. We must also not forget about the current form, game schedule and lineups. It is believed that betting on a “home” outsider is more effective.
4. In football it is not so profitable to bet on the underdog due to the fact that the match has three outcomes. But you don’t have to bet on winning - there are double outcome options (1X), F(0), F(+1), if the odds allow. You need to independently determine the range of odds that suit you.
5. Cautious players can play it safe. Before the match, the bettor makes a bet with the bookmaker on the victory of the underdog. After the start of the game, if the favorite fails to score, the odds for his victory begin to increase, and there may come a time when, having made the opposite bet - on the favorite, the player can leave the match in plus. This is the so-called fork in live.
6. Goal of the strategy– get income over the long haul, so the size of the bank and the amount of the bet should be designed for a long game.

Strategies for betting on the underdog

Above, we defined the basic rules for betting on an outsider, and then we will consider several approaches to the game found online.

Betting strategy against favorites in cup competitions

Football fans know that cup games are where the most unexpected results occur. IN various countries The prestige of these competitions is different. Often the situation develops in such a way that the club management is forced to various reasons set priorities for the tournaments where their team has to participate. The consequence is playing with the second team, saving energy, losing the cup.

How to bet against a favorite in a cup. The matches of the initial rounds of the national cup are coming up in a country where you are well versed in the balance of power of football clubs.

1. Select 5 teams who, in your opinion, are ready to “sacrifice” this tournament and meet with teams of a lower rank.
2. Place your bets on 5 matches for the same amount. The coefficient is expected to be 6-7 and higher.
3. If you pass at least one bet, you will make a profit.

“Hole” strategy from Mikhail Starikov

The strategy is based on the analysis of football betting matches in the Fonbet bookmaker. The author’s key idea is that the bookmaker, pursuing the goal of preventing the jackpot from being won, deliberately introduces a match into the betting, where the teams are very different in class, but at the same time there is information that the game may end unexpectedly.

Very few betting participants “close” the victory of an outsider. A “hole” appears, where the players’ bets “fall in”. The author identifies three characteristics of such games:

• there are teams that are not comparable in class;
• the probability according to the bookmaker is less than 30%;
• The pool of bettors for the underdog is less than 20%.

Your task is simple - to find similar meetings in the betting, and they happen in almost every draw, and place a bet on the outsider not losing.

The strategy is interesting due to the analysis of the bookmaker’s logic, but such systems, even if they are justified, usually do not last long.

Home Underdog Betting Strategy

The strategy is based on selecting matches based on the following criteria:

• the underdog we bet on is playing at home;
• the range of acceptable odds for it is from 2.5 to 7.0;
• reduction of odds for the outsider at the beginning of the game.

Deserves attention last condition. It goes against the common belief about the growth of odds on the underdog before the game. In reality, every rule has exceptions. During the period from the initial setting of odds to the start of the match, the alignment may change due to objective reasons. The bettor in this strategy follows the line movement and bets against the favorite.

Conclusion

In the odds offered by the bookmaker for the outsider, there are “value bets”, which makes the strategy in question effective means for successful betting.

Everyone understands that it is better to bet on a clear leader or, at least, on a team that is performing more or less successfully. In principle, most novice players do this.

There is probably some truth here, because such teams show more stable play. However, in the world sports betting not so simple! It turns out that experienced professionals very often use the “services” of outsiders, or rather, high odds, which the bookmaker puts on them.

How can an outsider generate income?

Agree, quite interest Ask– how can a team doomed to lose in a given match bring the joy of victory to the player? Turning to the history of the development of betting and bookmaking, it must be said that there have been many cunning players over the last century. Paying attention to the fact that bookmakers are racking their brains over how to put the lowest odds on the favorite, the rating of the second team automatically increased. By the way, it was on this basis that the concept of “agreement” grew up, when, seeing fantastic odds for an outsider, the parties agreed and successfully divided the profit in half. But that's not what we're talking about. Cunning players not only monitored how the odds were set, but also the changes in the team’s level of play, external factors, which could influence the result. As a result, the world has seen many options and systems that involve not just betting on an outsider, but also making a profit.

If you conduct a thorough analysis and display all the results in one statistical table, you can make sure that there is not a single team (even a very strong one!) that would not lose to a clear outsider. Without leafing through history, one can recall the very recent facts of the football championship of the Netherlands, Italy and Great Britain, when the leader of the championship, being in excellent shape, suddenly loses to an outsider. For example, a few rounds before the end of the Spanish Championship, when every point was important for Barça in the fight against Real Madrid, the team missed a goal from Getafe at the last second. And there are many such examples.

Why does a leader suddenly lose?

Before considering the methods and strategies that are designed to bring victory to a player from betting on an outsider, it is very important to understand why such strange losses of leaders occur, as described above. This is important because a real player, claiming to be a professional and really wanting to earn money, must not only have full information about the match, but also the so-called “sixth sense”, which is the main secret of the success of recognized sports betting masters.

Yes, any championship can “boast” of such matches where the undisputed leader, quite suddenly, is defeated by an outsider. A professional player needs to not only feel such moments. Feelings must be based on specific information. For example, the leader does not play very confidently on the road (if we're talking about about football), the leading attacking or defensive players will not participate in the match. In addition, it is important to review the “state” of the outsider. For example, the past championships in England, Spain and Italy were simply full of matches when the team occupying the last line in the standings, if not winning, then very confidently played in a draw with the leaders. You must understand that any team, whether it is a leader or an outsider, has moments of ups and downs throughout the championship. Here it is very important to find a moment when the forward is in some decline, and his opponent is showing a consistently strong game.

Having considered all the nuances associated with the physical, moral and psychological state of teams, it is necessary to correctly determine such a moment as correct bet. It is best to look through several bookmakers and find the highest odds bet on an outsider. This process is called finding the bookmaker's error. It must be remembered that bookmakers also make mistakes when they try to reduce the odds on the leader as much as possible, automatically raising the opponent’s rating.

We must not lose sight of such an important factor as the standings. It is worth turning to the statistics and experience of professional players, who extremely rarely bet on an outsider at the beginning of the championship, when there is a peculiar distribution of places in the standings. At least several rounds must pass in order for the picture of the championship and the state of the teams participating in it to emerge. The most effective bets on an outsider become at the moment when the leader has a large lag behind the competitors and relaxes somewhat. This is exceptional human factor, which cannot be excluded, and to which all teams, without exception, are subject. It is not at all necessary to think that the leader, who has a large lead in points, will lose. No! He can play several matches with a draw, score half as many goals, send out young players and a second team to the game in order to give the leading players a rest.

It is very good to use such moments as the participation of a leader in international tournaments. Information about the club’s plans and the strategy of the coaching staff of the leading club is extremely important here. For example, referring to the same football, history knows many situations when a team, having reached the upper steps of the tournament table, allows it to next year participate in European competitions, weakens the focus on the domestic championship. The coach preserves the team's strength for European cups by sending a second squad to the domestic championship games. This is such fertile ground when a bet on an outsider plays out in 90% of cases.

What methods of targeting an outsider are most effective?

The first and most important means leading to the success of betting on an outsider is the absence of a fear of losing complex. It is this psychological moment that prevents many players from winning decent amounts of money. It is possible to understand a player, especially if he is a beginner. For example, in the match “Barcelona” - “Getafe” only the “suicide” will bet on the second team winning. However, just such a match, in the last championship, ended in a 1-1 draw. Everything is explained very simply:

• 1. Barça, at that time, played many international and cup matches.
• 2. Many players were called up to the national team.
• 3. Injuries to leading midfield players.
• 4. Recently there were very difficult matches with our main competitors – Real Madrid and the Villarreal club.

As you can see, the most favorable situation has developed for a bet on an outsider to play, because no matter how powerful the team is, human strength has a limit. However, it is not at all necessary to bet on a clear victory for an outsider or the “draw-win” option. A leader always remains a leader, and such options can be quite risky. Here another method comes to the rescue, the effectiveness of which has been proven by practice and time.

Plus handicaps (Asian handicap)

Today, all bookmakers, without exception, offer their users the use of plus odds. These types of bets are actively used professional players, are very often overlooked by beginners, and very wrongly. If we return to the above example with the match “Barcelona” - “Getafe”, you can see that the odds for the victory of the second team were 12.0, for the draw-win of the second team – 1.70. However, such options are very risky. It is known that the leader (especially if the game is at home!) tries to score more in order to please his fans. But, despite this, some analysis should be carried out, which will show that the odds for the leader to win are 1.14, and with a handicap of +3.5 – also 1.14. Considering the negativity that has developed in Barcelona’s game schedule, we can count on the fact that the team will not be able to score more than two goals. That's exactly what happened. Looking back, let us remember that the handicap for the underdog in that match was as follows:

• +3.5 – 1.14.
• +3. – 1.20.
• +2.5 – 1.35.
• +2 – 1.44.
• +1.5 – 1.65
• +1 – 1.80.

From these data it is clearly clear that a draw result (which happened in this match) brought the players such a coefficient that it is extremely difficult to obtain with the participation of such football giants as Barcelona, ​​Real Madrid, Bayern or Napoli. This once again confirms the idea that with careful analysis and excellent information, positive odds bring simply fantastic results, and the strategy of betting on an outsider fully lives up to expectations.

Calculating a bet on an outsider

It should be noted that the strategy of betting on an outsider, despite its profitability, is a very delicate matter. Even after calculating all the physiological and psychological aspects relating to the leader and the outsider, the risk of losing always remains. In order to avoid financial losses, you can make fairly simple calculations that will completely eliminate losses. Let's say the player's bank is $100 and there is a great desire to bet on an outsider. There is no information about the teams, and the player does not know in what psychological and physical fitness there are teams.

The odds for an outsider to win are 10.5.

To determine the amount you need to bet on an outsider, you need to divide the bank by a coefficient of 10.5. The amount of 9.5 dollars will be the value that will be bet. After this, it is important to decide on the amount that should be the output, in other words, the winnings. Let it be $120, which is very good for a bet on an outsider. The balance of the bank, amounting to 90.5 dollars, is divided by the desired winning amount - 120. We get the result - 1.32, which is the leader’s winning coefficient, at which the player will have a profit of twenty dollars. Of course, such calculations depend on the player’s desire to receive the desired profit, but the prospective winning amount can increase or decrease, depending on what odds the bookmaker provides to its visitors. I must say that this method is very good and always pays off. The only drawback of this strategy is the fact that it is impossible to hit a big jackpot here. However, it is also impossible to lose your bank, which is no less important.

Life betting on the underdog

Moving away from the so-called “stationary” betting methods, you can test your knowledge on life bets, which are carried out by virtually all bookmakers. First of all, a novice player should watch how real professionals do it. The very first viewing will end with a whole series of questions, the answer to which is luck. First of all, we need to highlight some points that are extremely important when participating in life betting on an outsider:

• 1. Availability necessary information about the composition of the teams, physical activity, game schedule, participation in other tournaments, player injuries.
• 2. Strategy of the coaching staff regarding the domestic championship.
• 3. Stability and efficiency of the outsider's play in the last five games.

In addition, life bets, which can be changed during the game, imply direct viewing of a sporting event. An experienced player, already at the end of the first half (if we are talking about football), will actually see how the match can end and what type of bet will work most effectively for the outsider. I must say that experienced players practice placing bets at several bookmakers at once, where in each sporting event the underdog is bet different kind bets, but each of them must be logically justified and realistic. Such a “fork” often gives excellent results, to the point that all events justify themselves, bringing a very decent win.

When paying attention to the process of betting on an outsider, it is important to understand that this strategy can be as profitable as any other. Do not forget that any betting option requires from the player not only a great desire to win, but also such important personal qualities like patience, persistence and attention. Each sporting event is a source of information that is important to absorb and draw the necessary conclusions. Only in this case, betting on an outsider will bring no less profit and moral satisfaction than the rest.

Betting on an outsider is a great chance to win great by identifying the bookmaker's mistake in time!

Most players remember their first bet in the office and it was most likely on the absolute favorite with a very low coefficient. All beginners believe that playing favorites will bring them the expected income. However, they do not take into account that the odds for the favorites are significantly lower than the probability of their winning..

Betting on outsiders may seem crazy to some, but if you use the right strategy, you can get a stable income from them. Let's evaluate the advantages of betting on outsiders.

pros

1. Large income from a winning bet

By betting 100 rubles on the favorite, at best you will win 180 rubles, and when betting on the outsider, you can easily win 600 rubles or even more.

2. No need to win more than 50% of bets

If you bet on the most obvious favorites, you need to win 70-90% of the time to be in the black. When betting on outsiders, even 3-4 losing bets in a row will not throw you into confusion. It is worth winning one victory, and you will immediately improve your financial situation.

3. Lots of value bets

It is outsiders that bookmakers very often underestimate. It also happens that players, with their abundant bets on the favorite, force bookmakers to change the odds in favor of the outsider, which ultimately leads to the appearance of a value bet.

To convince you that underdogs do not win as rarely as they seem, let's look at the results of one day of the last weekend of football in Europe's top 5 domestic tournaments. As you can see, the bet on the outsider would be successful in 9 cases out of 25. If you bet $100 on the outsider in each match, then with $2,500 spent, total winnings would be $4808. And this despite the fact that the table shows coefficients that are far from the highest.

The above example does not mean that thoughtless bets on outsiders will bring you income. The favorites will not show such poor results in every round, but very often bookmakers underestimate the outsiders.

In what cases should you take a closer look at betting on an outsider?

1. Game with a principal opponent

The rivalries between individual teams are so fierce that the game can end with absolutely any result, regardless of the difference in the class of the teams. Example: In the 2009-10 season, Leeds United knocked out their arch-enemy Manchester United from the FA Cup. The game took place in Manchester, but this did not stop Leeds from setting up properly and winning with a score of 1:0. Let us remember that at that time the clubs were separated from each other by 2 divisions, and Manchester United acted as a finalist in the Champions League and the winner of the last Premier League.

2. Greater motivation for the underdog or lack of motivation for the favorite

If in the last rounds a team that is fighting for survival meets a team that has already solved the problem for the season, then even a hopeless outsider will certainly compete for points in this situation. Also, teams that secured the championship in advance often lose in the last rounds. Example: in the 2014-15 season, Bayern Munich lost three out of four latest games, although in the previous 30 games she had only 2 defeats.

3. Bonuses for players

Sometimes a cash bonus can motivate better than any other factor. Example: in the RFPL 2009, 3 rounds before the end, Kazan Rubin was ahead of Moscow Spartak by only 1 point. Spartak played with the Samara Wings, who had already solved all their problems, but unexpectedly the Samara team won with a score of 2:1. Later, Krylia players admitted that Rubin motivated the team by giving about 500 thousand euros for the victory over Spartak. The odds for Krylia's victory in that match were 8.00.

4. Immediately before the game

On the last day before the match, amateurs begin to place bets, who usually “charge” money for the favorites. Under the influence of their bets, bookmakers are forced to change the odds in favor of outsiders and at this moment you can catch the odds at their peak.

5. Injuries and disqualifications of the favorite players

Barcelona, ​​according to the average fan, will always be the favorite, regardless of whether its players are injured or not. If the same Neymar gets injured and Messi is disqualified, then the team’s striking potential will significantly decrease. In such situations, you need to play favorites.

Summary

Betting on outsiders does not involve betting on victory. You can bet on double outcome or for an outsider to win with some kind of handicap. Main find an undervalued market in the line and manage to place it at a high odds.

Despite all the advantages of betting on outsiders, playing blindly in such markets will only bring you losses. You cannot win at a bookmaker's office without a betting strategy and without carefully analyzing each individual event, regardless of whether you bet on the favorites or the underdogs.