It is better to bet on lower bet odds. Betting strategy for low odds

Hi all! Surely many of you are familiar with the financial strategy of sports betting called Dynamic?(more about her). If yes, then you probably know how scientifically (mathematically) the authors approach strategies... In today's article we will talk about another very interesting strategy from the authors of Dynamic.

It's about financial strategy for sports betting called “Multi-Expresses”!

Let’s immediately make a reservation that on the official website this strategy costs a very impressive amount (10,000 rubles!). For you, we We will reveal the essence of the strategy absolutely free!!!

So, let's begin...

(All of the following is published from the words of the author of the strategy and is not a statement by the site administration)

Multiexpress

This strategy is a combination of several gaming methods (schemes) and in practice brings at least 40% of the working bank per month when working out 40 bets per month. The ability to play in several parallel series increases the strategy's potential in terms of profitability.

• Operating coefficients: 1.6 – 3.0

The strategy is based on combining several events into groups of express bets, the outcomes of which cover all the most probable options for the outcome of the events and, in case of winning, bring more income than the usual placing of express bets.

Any values ​​can be used as working coefficients, however, the meaning of the strategy is tied to real rates(and not just theory) is to work with events, the probability of winning for which bookmakers estimate at 30-70%. This range roughly corresponds to the level of odds from 1.6 to 3.0.

Like all other strategies that are available for a fee, the Multi-Express strategy underwent long-term testing from September 2015 to January 2016. During testing, 270 cycles of bets were made (per cycle we consider one multi-express from 2-4 events, more about the number of events below ). The profit rate was 52% of the working bank's monthly amount. The Martingale system, based on three levels, was used as a secondary financial strategy. More than two levels were not needed during testing.

How the strategy works

For a simpler understanding, let's take simplest example with two events. Each of which involves two possible outcomes. Here is an example of such two events: tennis, pre-match odds:

Events for multi-express...

For greater visibility, we took coefficients outside the recommended range. This will avoid possible confusion with rounding values. In practice, you can take such odds, but preferably those indicated in the description of the strategy, namely 1.6 - 3.0.

Another significant advantage of the strategy is ability to work with pre-match odds. Which adds convenience to working due to a sufficient reserve of time.

The bookmaker offers the following pairs of odds:

• Event 1: 1.444 (Outcome 1A)/2.60 (Outcome 1B)
• Event 2: 1.48 (Outcome 2A)/2.55 (Outcome 2B)

Before moving on to the algorithm for working with the Multiexpress strategy, let’s make a mathematical assessment possible outcomes given two events, as well as the probability of positive outcomes of all express bets that can be made from them.

Mathematical justification of the strategy

We will evaluate using a table, remembering that the data are not true probabilities, but an estimate of the bookmaker’s office, which does not play a significant role for us, since the assessment is carried out by the same office and deviations from the true probability values ​​will be leveled out over time.

So, the probabilities for each outcome are:

• Exodus 1A, odds. 1.444 - probability 63.13%.
• Exodus 1B, odds. 2.60 - probability 34.97%.
• Exodus 2A, odds. 1.48 - probability 61.43%.
• Exodus 2B, odds. 2.55 - probability 35.65%.

Rounding and writing in mathematical form, we get the probabilities of 0.63; 0.35; 0.61 and 0.36 respectively.

Now let's calculate the probabilities of all possible express bets that can be made. Here are the possible pairs of events:

• 1A-2A. Probability 0.63*0.61=0.38. Cef. express = 2.14
• 1A-2B. Probability 0.63*0.36=0.23. Cef. express = 3.68
• 1B-2A. Probability 0.35*0.61=0.21. Cef. express = 3.85
• 1B-2B. Probability 0.35*0.36=0.13. Cef. express = 6.63

Everything is natural. Express evaluation of bookmakers with maximum odds has a minimum probability of failure. And vice versa.

These calculations will be useful to us a little further, but now we will draw your attention to the extremely important point, which was already mentioned above: listed odds and probabilities are not true , but only a consequence of the bookmaker's assessment. And, as practice confirms, the bookmaker does not always accurately assess upcoming events.

We won’t dwell separately, but let’s remember the principles of operation of a bookmaker’s office, the earnings of which are based not on the losses of players, but on receiving profits included in the margin. We will also mention the factors of line movement on the size of the coefficients. And we will draw a natural and quite logical conclusion: the previously calculated probabilities are evaluative, not real ones. Simply put, it cannot be said that Express 1A-2A will definitely win as the most likely one. And vice versa - that any of the other three express trains will not win.

Let's return to the algorithm for working with the Multiexpress strategy.

It is necessary to put down three out of four express trains received. Having excluded most possible. That is, you need to enter express trains:

• 1A-2B.
• 1B-2A.
• 1B-2B.

These express bets cover all outcomes except the victory of both favorites.

Risky? Not at all!

A very important caveat: It is important that the odds are within the range specified for the strategy. Since the deviation from the probability of 0.5 is closest when working with odds of 1.6 – 3.0.

Keeping three factors in mind:

1. The bookmaker's assessment very often does not coincide with the real probability of the outcome of the event.
2. Events with an estimated probability close to 0.5 occur with a real probability of ~0.5.
3. Odds for more probable events are usually underestimated by bookmakers, while less probable ones, accordingly, are often overestimated, which in our gaming model plays into our hands.

... we can conclude that in practice it is very likely that one of the bets on the favorite will not be placed, which is a winning factor for a player working with the MultiExpress strategy.

In a way, this express is a bet, although this definition is not entirely correct in the context of strategy. Since the fork implies slightly different characteristics.

Here we start from the fact that bets on the favorite outcome are often unavailable.

Bet sizes

The bet amounts are easy to calculate. To facilitate the calculation process, we will round the obtained values. So, three bets on odds: 3.68 – 3.85 – 6.63. The bet amounts must be inversely proportional to the odds and directly proportional to their amount. In our case it is $100 - $100 - $50. The working bank amount is $250. If you win any of the express bets, the profit will be:

• 1A-2B. 3.68*$100 - $250 = $118
• 1B-2A. 3.85*$100 - $250 = $135
• 1B-2B. 6.63*$50 - $250 = $81

The bet amount for each express can be calculated using the formula: BetX=X*(Kmax/Kx), Where X – base rate(it must be set, in the example it is $50), Kmax is the maximum of the express odds, and Kh- the coefficient of the express bet whose bet amount we are calculating.

Assessing the probability of winning and assessing risks

An amazing fact: when betting on two favorites, the player has a risk of losing (in our example) 1-0.38=0.62. Let us remind you that 0.38 is the calculated probability of winning an express bet for the victory of two favorites. That is, by betting on two favorites, the player will most likely lose! And the probability of winning will be more than 60%. No tricks - just math.

Reinsurance

If both favorites win, the player loses the working amount. By assessing the probabilities of such outcomes, it is possible to build a fairly safe financial model that reinsures the risks of loss. As already written above, during the test period the Martingale system (same) was used as a secondary financial strategy. We will not recommend its use as it contains a number of significant risks , to work with it you need a reserve of a working bank and a very strict preliminary calculation.

For those who will still reinsure multi-express bets using the Martingale strategy, let us remind you that the real probability for the recommended odds is higher, since in the example we took a larger spread in odds. And it is usually at least 0.7.

The strategy also feels quite good when reinsurance is done with the help of non-progressive financial strategies, for example, a percentage of a bank or a fixed profit.

Variability of strategy application

In the example above, for simplicity, a pair of two-output events is taken. Which gives four possible outcomes with a fairly small probability of winning. Compared to what you can get if you use the Multi-Express strategy for three or more two-way events.

Please note that it is not possible to work with three-way events (for example, a 1-X-2 market). Since the rules of most bookmakers directly prohibit placing multiple bets on the same markets with opposite outcomes. Therefore, the strategy is only applicable in two-output markets. In addition to 12 markets, these could be Tb2.5/Tm2.5; F1 (0)/2 and so on.

Using three or more events, the player significantly increases the chances of winning. In particular, subject to compliance with the recommended odds, the probability of winning for compiling express trains from:

• Two events - 68%
• Three events - 81%
• Four events - 90%

Where to work using the Multiexpress strategy?

Another strong advantage of the strategy is its versatility. You can work at any bookmaker's office, and working in pre-match mode allows you to place bets without haste, which reduces the possibility of making a mistake or miscalculation.

Please note that some bookmakers offer odds that differ from single bets when working with express bets. This is what Pinnacle does, for example - the odds for express bets are lower than those for single bets. This is why we recommend working with bookmaker: 1XBet.

It is highly advisable to distribute express bets to different bookmakers.

That’s the whole essence of the “Multiexpress” betting strategy, voiced by the author...

For those who still want to download the text of this strategy for themselves, we provide you with the following opportunity:

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That's all!

Happy betting!

There is an opinion that the strategy of betting on low odds is a losing one. Of course, this opinion did not appear without reason. However, in this article we will tell you that the tactic of betting on low odds may well bring decent profits. The success of this strategy highly depends on the knowledge, endurance and skills of the bettor.

This article will describe a specific approach, and you will only need to decide whether to put it into practice or not.

Your bets on low odds should be made at bookmakers that have a well-developed Live section. It is also worth choosing reliable bookmakers who will definitely pay out your winnings. You will have to place a lot of bets to make money. Where can you place multiple bets and get results in the shortest possible time? That's right, in the Live section. You can also bet on betting exchanges.

What odds should you bet on?

Particular attention should be paid not so much to the event on which you plan to bet, but to the odds. Here is the following rule:

1. 01 – 1.02 are working coefficients.
2. 03 – place bets with caution.
3. 04 – 1.05 – think carefully about each bet.

Please note that odds of 1.05 are not a 95/100 probability. Don't forget about the bookmaker's margin. As a result, the coefficient 1.05 corresponds to the real 1.1.

What to bet on and how to manage the bank?

For example, it goes Soccer game. Yes, by the way, we will bet on football matches using this strategy. So, the first half ended with the score 1:0. What can you bet on here? Do you think teams will be able to get the total over 5.5? In the vast majority of cases this is not possible. The odds for this outcome are 1.02. Your bet is “Total less than 5.5”.

It is very convenient to place bets on totals, since you can soberly assess the game if you look at the results of the first half.

The bank should be divided into 10 equal parts. For example, you have $500. That is, the amount of one bet is $50. An event with odds of 1.02 will bring you $1. What happens? You find 10 matches and place bets on those odds. As a result, in 1 hour you will earn $10. You can easily earn the amount of one bet in a day.

Do you need to understand football?

Of course, it is advisable that you have a good understanding of football. Understanding what teams are capable of will help you significantly save your money and nerves.

It is advisable to be aware of why you are making this particular bet. You must be confident that it will pass. After all, we are not talking about odds of 2.00, where everything is possible. Well, for example, the first half of Bayern against someone ended with a score of 2:1 in favor of the Munich club. The odds for a total over 6 is 1.05. Is it worth betting? Very risky. For Bayern, finishing a match with a score of 5:2 is a common occurrence.

In order to place a bet, you must at least evaluate the statistics of the teams’ past games. It is also advisable to collect statistics in advance for all championships that interest you. If a team has had a situation where it ended the first half with a goalless draw, and in the second half they scored 5 goals, then it’s better not to mess with such guys.

Disadvantages of the low odds betting strategy

1. If you lose, it takes a very long and tedious time to win back.
2. The desire to win back, as a rule, leads to additional losses.
3. It is not always possible to place a bet of the amount you need.
4. Using this strategy is time-consuming.
5. It is very difficult to analyze all the events, since they all take place at the same time.
6. The strategy is not suitable for bookmakers with an undeveloped Live section.

Advantages of a low odds betting strategy

1. The risks of losing your funds are minimal.
2. The choice of events for betting is simply huge.
3. You don't need to thoroughly research every team you plan to bet on.
4. This strategy implies a quick turnover of funds.

If you lose, it is not fatal. The main thing is not to get too excited. It’s better to stop betting altogether for today. This way you definitely won’t make any mistakes. Remember that tomorrow you will definitely win back everything.

Everything written below applies only to betting on football, unless another sport is indicated.

I would like to try out a strategy that just recently came to mind. Briefly: football, total over 0.5 (odds 1.05 - 1.07), express bet of 3, maximum 5 events, bet from RUR 50,000. Yes, it looks risky, you can lose a lot of money at once, and the potential winnings are much less than the amount invested. But maybe there is still common sense in this strategy?

And now, in order.

A little bit about yourself

Why am I looking for a new strategy?

Total is more than 0.5 and an attempt to justify the strategy

I don’t care who wins and how many goals they score and concede. Let the favorites lose or draw. The main thing is to have at least one single goal per match. There is no need to be an expert or have a great understanding of sports. And I’ve already seen a lot of forecasts from experts. Like them, all of us, ordinary bettors, try to think logically before a match: we analyze the state of the teams, their latest results, we look whether it is a home match for the team we are betting on or an away match, we evaluate the teams’ motivation... And how many mistakes happen: anything can happen on the field that we could not predict before the match, using our logic: for example, 2 red cards for Roma in the match with Porto on 08/23/16 and goodbye to the favorite. And there are a great many such examples.

Large bet - small odds. Event selection

If we place an express bet consisting of 3 events with odds. 1.05, then with a bet of 50,000 the winnings will be 50,000 x 1.1576 = 57880. You need to win 6.3 bets just to double the amount of the initial bet, i.e. win + 50,000 rub.

You can make an express bet from 5 events, or choose events where the odds for the total are more than 0.5 and higher, for example, 1.07-1.09. But the risk accordingly increases.

Finally

Whether this strategy is good or bad - time will tell. But I understood one thing for sure: if you really want to win something, you need a lot of patience and... a lot of money. There is nothing to do with one thousand rubles for this purpose in the bookmaker. And with two too. To win big (in the long term, a little each time), you need to risk a much larger amount.

As I said at the beginning, I am not experienced player , so don't judge too harshly. I just wanted to think about this strategy.

There is a simple strategy, and I decided to test it in practice.
Now I’m still thinking about some points, or rather risk management.
In general, the essence of the strategy is to bet on clear favorites with odds of 1.035-1.9, but the average odds should be 1.05 or more. Everyone says it won't work, so it's interesting to try.

It won’t work if you just bet the pot without any analysis - my task is to come up with an algorithm for calculating the size of the bet, in other words - risk management.

For now, it is planned to place the first bet on 40% of the deposit, then 35, 30, 25, 20, and in 2% increments reduce it to 10%, then if there is a loss, start again at 40%, because Statistically, it is very unlikely that there will be two losses one after the other.

User Thoughts

I'll think about it one more day and start testing. I will post the results in this thread.

I don't believe in this idea. Losses will happen randomly, and there is a possibility that out of 10 there may be 2 or 3 losses, and this will significantly reduce the base (by 30%). Then, there is a chance that it will be possible to fly when the rate is 40, 35, or 30 percent of the deposit, and this is a relatively big minus. Another point is that there are very few bets with odds less than 1.1, you will have to constantly look for them and there will be 1-2 bets per day. As a result, you will spend a lot of time, but will not earn anything.

Indeed, such a strategy will not work in theory before the game, but in Live mode, in my opinion, it will be just right!

I think this makes sense. I remember I used to play live tennis, the bets were mainly on the current game, when the score was 30/15, 40/15. Sometimes I came across high odds of 1.4-1.5, but it didn’t always work. The only thing is that I had no trace of risk management there, so I won a lot of money, but I was lucky. And so, if you think through this strategy carefully, then I think you can achieve a stable income.

Tr@der, yes, that's exactly what I'm thinking about. After all, when the score is... well, even 40:15, there is a high probability that the first player will win the game, and if the score is 40:0, then even more so. Plus, you can add a bet at a higher odds when 40:0 becomes 40:15... Now I will test exactly this approach. But the preliminary bets turn out to be unstable, there are no guarantees even if the odds are 1.01.

I tested small odds on football by placing express bets. For clear favorites there are 50 and 50 against them F+2.5 or more.
The odds were from 1.1 to 1.45.
Here is the result:
Results after 100 express trains
at a bet of 10r

Express +35-65//-123
Passability(35:100)x100=35.00%
Profitability(-123:1000)Х100=-12.30%

flat 459 //+346=8-106//-248
Passability (346:451)x100=76.72%+8 returns
Profitability(-248:4590)x100=-5.40%

With small odds of up to 1.45, playing flat is minus 5.40% of the bank.
Playing express bets with a total odds of 2.0 to 3... and investing less money than in flat, the minus amounted to 12.30%, despite the fact that every 3 express bets are entered.
That's all MYTHS and REALITIES.
Maybe the whole reason is that I am such a forecaster, but what kind of analysis can there be for odds of 1.2-1.3. They must play and, as you can see, a share of luck should always be present.

Interesting statistics!
Indeed, the bookmakers are directed against us due to the spread and in the long run there will be a minus in any way, unless of course we are psychics.
I texted a catch-up at odds 2.01-2.2, but there was far from a 50/50 probability, and there were losing series of 6-7 bets, which is not good.
The same thing applies to low odds, but even more time will be wasted.

For me, Lil got to 7 pockets in a row, but he couldn’t play on the TB.
IN real life I wouldn’t dare increase the rate like that.

To be honest, I thought that if the coefficients were low, then for sure the game will pass in my favor, but I was deeply mistaken((

The lower the odds, the more events you collect and some certain bet will definitely not come in, no matter how you play flat or express
you go into the minus when playing long-term. Small odds fly as often as big ones. If you play with small odds, then the passability of bets should be at least 80%, with odds more than 2.0 55% you will already be in the black.

Everyone thought so when they decided to make money in bookmakers. Only many people don’t understand that we are playing the game not with the team we are betting on, but with the bookmaker. Bookmakers deliberately lower the odds so that people bet money on the event, since the odds are low, and there is more chance of winning without losing, but in fact, everything is exactly the opposite.

We don’t play with a bookmaker; it lives on interest, that is, it sets its odds based on how much money is bet on a particular event. If, for example, the victory of the first team had a coefficient of 2, put 50 thousand bucks there and it will immediately go down.

Yuran123, According to your scheme, you should always bet on outsiders and you will be in the black. In general, I don’t know if there are successful privateers who only bet on low odds. At one time I made express bets from two bets - one forecast for an equal match (odds 1.7 - 2.3), the second forecast for a clear favorite with a low odds (1.1 - 1.3), in principle it worked well. The express odds were 2.5 - 3.0. It was enough for one express train to work out of three, and then the output would be approximately zero. If 2 out of three passed, then a good plus was obtained. Of course, there were cases when all 3 express trains did not work, but extremely rarely.
Sidik, Well, why do you care, you made your coefficient, it will remain the same. It changes only for those who will install after the change.

No, I don't have any plans! And there are no vehicles that could beat BC for quite a long time; sooner or later everything will collapse. I believe that you should rely on your knowledge, and not on the vehicle. Cappers do not work according to TS, they rely on their knowledge. The only way to consistently win against a bookmaker is through sure bets. But here you need a special program that will find these forks, since it is not possible to do this manually, and of course a large deposit, since usually 3-5% of the profit comes out of the “fork”.

Just because everything is falling apart for you doesn’t mean it’s the same for everyone else. It is difficult to be in the black at low odds. In general, it is quite possible to earn a stable income from bookmaking, but of course few people can do this, as in any risky form of income.

Marik, it’s not just me who couldn’t make money on low EFs, but everyone else. It has long been proven that at low odds you cannot beat bookmakers. If it were the other way around, then all bookmakers would have gone bankrupt. So think before you write such posts that they say it’s just falling apart for me. Show me a person who was able to consistently earn big money by betting on low scores.

What amuses me most are the people who take, for example, odds of 1.01-1.05 on large sums and they fly by. How ridiculous this is. And they begin to complain that everything is going to waste)). I don’t see the point in taking such odds at all. I personally take the minimum from 1.4

It's hard to be in the black.

Sergey Turkin

Pros make money on those teams where the odds are not lower than 2x, for example, battles between leaders or predicting the victory of outsiders. Also express bets for several events at once.

A clear odds-on odds of 1.9? The clear favorites have odds. no more than 1.1! And sometimes they lose!

So, in the previous article we looked at “How to make money on bets in bookmakers”, today we’ll talk about game tactics so as not to go into the red with bookmakers. The conversation will focus on the type of bet on express bets with small odds. To make this type of bet, you need to understand what express bets are.

Express– this is a type of bet on several outcomes various events. By choosing small odds, you can significantly increase the final odds, which will definitely pass, since the probability of small bets passing is very high. Remember: all the low odds you select are multiplied together, giving us a decent odds at the end. The type of sport can be different, the bets can also be different, let it be TM or TB, on victory, on the number, for example, of cards or corners. Less words, everything is shown in the photo below, an example of an express train.

The advantage of express bets is to increase the odds due to passing matches. Let's look at how I played and won decent money by analyzing such games. I played on the fact that there was a low probability of the outcome of a football match with a zero score and decided to play on this. Also, no one limits you in choosing other types of bets, where you are more knowledgeable. When placing bets on various game outcomes, always analyze and check the team compositions, the availability of cards, etc. This method will greatly increase your chances of success; you shouldn’t point your finger at the sky without analyzing past games and looking at the team composition! Make money betting at bookmakers It’s possible, you just need a little patience, the ability to think and calculate the outcome of the match.

If you want to further increase your chances of winning, I recommend that you combine express + “catch-up”, your chances of winning will increase several times. ABOUT