Hello, dear readers of our blog “Whitebet – football analytics for every day”! In this article, we will analyze the entire process of analyzing the upcoming football event, but on the basis of which you will draw your conclusion regarding the forecast for the outcome of a particular match. This article is quite serious in nature, and if you want to learn how to do profitable bets for football, I strongly recommend reading it to the end.
Before you start reading the article, I would like to say that you do not need to rely on the fact that if you re-read the entire material from beginning to end, I will tell you some secrets - they simply do not exist. I'll just show you how I do analysis, what I use and what tools I use. And you, in turn, by applying this information, will be able to repeat all this. But remember that success in betting will begin only when you lose your first money on bets, because your only real, correct and most best teacher– this is your own experience.
First of all, I would like to note that in order to learn how to bet on football and make money on it, by and large, you need one full football season - which lasts from September to May. It is very advisable to go through the entire Champions League, the entire Europa League, and all other matches that will take place in the major and non-major football leagues of the world. Only after this can you say that you know a lot about how to make profitable bets and in football in general.
Muscle pumping and betting – what do they have in common?
It will be difficult for those who bet very small amounts to make money on bets - you will only be able to learn if you bet money that is tangible for you. I don’t encourage you to bet your entire salary - naturally, you don’t need to do that either. For example, if your salary is 40 thousand rubles per month, most likely the rate is 3,000 rubles. will be significant for your monthly budget. If you “feel” this money, you will have a learning process. Here we can draw a parallel with pumping muscles - if you exercise and strain your muscles, feeling them at the same time, they will certainly grow. The same is true in bets - if the bet amount is not very comfortable for you, but at the same time you feel that it should win (and in most cases this happens) - then this is the “golden mean”. At the same time, always be prepared for the fact that you will lose your first gaming bank. This article will help you incur as few losses as possible at the initial stage.
Unfortunately, the format of the article does not make it possible to sort out the entire process of analysis “on the shelves” - to see this, you must be near me every day and look at me during the analysis. The article describes the most basic points, without which the analysis can hardly be called analysis at all.
Team compositions come first!
The only service I use when analyzing football matches is MyScore. Perhaps there are other additional sites that allegedly provide some kind of classified information, but I don’t use them. The most important information that we need to analyze a match lies directly in this service. It provides, among other things, information about the squads - on its basis we can make a theoretical conclusion that, for example, in a match involving Swansea, few goals will be scored if all the team's main scorers are absent from the field. Without knowing this information and the fact that the team does not have its usual scoring power, we can make a reckless bet on Swansea to win. In this case, only the name remains of the team, and the odds for its victory, as a rule, do not change, regardless of the presence or absence of this main striker. The first thing you need to consider is that the bookmaker wants to “deceive” you. Not in literally, that they will not want to return your money (although this also happens), but with their, at first glance, tempting odds. An example is Bayern's recent game against a clear outsider in the German Bundesliga. The odds for Bayern's victory were around 1.2, for the opposite team - about 17. But Arjen Robben, Thomas Müller, Robert Lewandowski, Mario Götze, Bastian Schweinsteiger did not play in the Munich team - practically none of the main field players were in the squad. In this match, the head coach decided to give practice to his young players and those who are on the minor roles in a team. At the same time, the odds for their victory still remained small. But many people don’t know this, don’t understand and don’t want to understand, they just see the formidable name “Bavaria” and bet huge sums of money on their victory. That match, as you might have guessed, ended in a draw. I repeat, one of the most important points that you should know before placing a bet is the composition of the playing teams. It is available on the website a maximum of half an hour before the game. I don't take it into account major tournaments like the FIFA World Cup, Champions League and Europa League - those tournaments that attract everyone's attention - where team lineups can be available an hour before the game. Without knowing the lineups, we are actually betting “blindly”, remember this point.
Be careful - small odds!
I also think that betting on small odds and making large express bets from them, as many “super cappers” do, is generally pointless. In general, you can’t bet on small odds. For clarity, consider the match between Chelsea and Stoke City.
For the London team, of course, the coefficient is small - they play at home, and their opponent is a clear “middle peasant” of the English Premier League, who does not have much tournament motivation and will be satisfied with even a draw. In terms of composition, names of performers and financial power, Stoke is no match for Chelsea. In addition, Jose Mourinho, the head coach of Chelsea, understands that today's game is quite serious, because the gap to Arsenal, who defeated Liverpool with a score of 4-1 on the same day, is small. Everything suggests that Chelsea should win. The odds for their victory are 1.3. But we also have to understand that anything can happen in football.
We can analyze how Chelsea plays at home. Based on the last five games, we can look at their current form.
They drew with Southampton, also surprisingly drew and missed out on the French PSG in the Champions League, and played 1-1 with the outright middle team of the Premier League Burnley. The score of the game with Everton is also modest, which is far from in the best position and which is this moment doesn't play very well. We can also conclude that they no longer have the goal of winning the Champions League, the only remaining goal is to win the Premier League. But in the current situation, betting on Chelsea, for example, 10 thousand rubles with a chance to win only 3 thousand rubles is a pointless waste of your money. Yes, most likely Chelsea will win, they definitely need to do this, but with our correct analysis we can win much more money, taking the same risk as if they had bet on Chelsea.
You can often find offers online from so-called “cappers” about ready-made forecasts “for tomorrow” - and here it’s worth thinking about whether you should trust such people. After all, it’s unclear how you can make a forecast without knowing the lineups. By and large, such people simply figure out in their heads which team is stronger and should win. Often they take many matches with a bet on the outcome of 1X (usually there low odds) and make an express out of them. But this is far from analysis. By composing such an express bet, you multiply your risks. And our task is to minimize risks as much as possible. The most optimal and convenient odds for us are from 1.5 to 2, and our goal is to select a match where our outcome will be the most likely in comparison with other matches. And odds of 1.2, 1.3 are too much risk for little profit. We have no right to take risks for such pennies. I hope this point is clear.
How to analyze a match?
Let's look at the match I bet on today. This is a match between Sevilla and Athletic. On average, bookmakers give odds of 1.7 for Sevilla’s victory – this is an acceptable odd. As a rule, I only bet on a team to win, either on the outcome of “Both to score” or not. I'm not good at betting on totals. Today I bet on Sevilla to win.
From the table above we see that Sevilla is in 5th place in the Spanish Championship, and Athletic is in 8th place. If you know these teams a little, you should understand that Athletic is now in a rather high position for itself, where the team rarely finds itself. “Seville” is where it should be. As a team, they are much stronger than Athletic. I understand this, not looking at the table, but based on previous experience and impressions of teams in the past, even in those days when I had not yet placed bets, but simply followed football.
Returning to our table - what information can we get from it? Firstly, this is the number of Sevilla goals in the championship - 51 goals in 28 games. The team conceded 33 goals. If we look at the average number of goals scored and conceded among other championship teams (excluding Real Madrid and Barcelona, whose level is much higher than all other LA League teams, and there is no point in comparing other championship teams with them), we can see that Sevilla's result goals scored comparable to the result of Valencia and Atlético, but at the same time, Sevilla concedes a little more and therefore is below these teams - this is logical. We can conclude that no one scores more goals in this championship than these three clubs and Sevilla in particular. If we compare this figure with Athletic, we can see that the Basques scored only 27 goals in 28 games - an average of almost 1 goal per game. They conceded equally - 33 goals each. From this we conclude that Athletic’s attack is weaker than Sevilla’s attack - this is the first logical conclusion that comes to our minds when looking at this table. At the same time, the defense of both teams is approximately the same level.
The second advantage of Seville is that the game will be played on its field. In Spain, Italy, England, Germany, stadiums are usually filled to capacity, and the culture of cheering there is completely different than in Russia. In general, a home stadium is a huge plus when playing against an opponent. Teams feel much more confident at home. Athletic, in addition to insufficient scoring power, will have a lack of confidence and support from its fans - these are two big disadvantages.
Let's consider the situation with scorers.
If, again, we do not take into account Messi and Ronaldo, then we see that Bacca from Sevilla shares the top place with Neymar in the list of top scorers in the championship. Sometimes there is a player on the team who scores the lion's share of goals, and if he is not on the field, then there is simply no one to score. Sevilla has several players who can excel and bring victory to the team. Athletic has only one distinct forward, Aduriz, and by the way, he is playing today.
Let's return to the analysis of the standings. From it we can see that Sevilla had only 4 draws with 17 wins and 7 losses. From this we can conclude that this team always plays for results. There are teams that play on the sly - they usually have a weak attack and defense and prefer to take their chances in counter-attacks and then use the bus tactic in front of their goal - but Sevilla is clearly not one of them. The players of this team will not sit back on defense, but will take the initiative into their own hands and run to be the first to score their goal. From Athletic’s indicators, you can understand that they play according to the principle of “how it turned out, that’s how it happened” - 11 wins, 6 draws and 11 defeats.
From the “H2H” tab we can track the current form of the teams.
We can see that Sevilla have not lost a single defeat in their last 15 home matches. A draw with Atlético should not be surprising - the Mattress Clubs have a strong team with a good defense. Among the teams that Sevilla defeated at home are Villarreal, Borussia, Cordoba, Espanyol, Malaga, Granada, Celta - far from the weakest teams. And the Sevillians score an average of 2-3 goals per game.
The Basques play pretty well away. We defeated Celta, Espanyol, Eibar, and tied with Torino (a fairly strong team at the moment). But still the team plays worse compared to Sevilla.
Let's summarize. “Sevilla” is in 5th place in the championship, it would really like to qualify for the Champions League (although their competitors are unlikely to allow them to do this), while “Athletic” has no prospects - neither the Champions League, nor the European Championship, this team has no special tournament motivation no, but Sevilla needs to improve, and this team is stronger, and today they have all the main players, including the top scorer Bacca, and besides, they have good form at home, they always play for results, they scored 20 goals more than their opponents. If we take all these factors into account, we can conclude that Sevilla is clearly stronger in this particular confrontation. The odds for her victory were 1.7, that is, with a bet of 10 thousand rubles, we will earn 7 thousand in an hour and a half, and we do this with absolutely peace of mind, because we understand why this happens.
Looking at the statistics during the match, we see that Sevilla made more shots on target, and Athletic became more active towards the end of the match (during the break they had much fewer shots towards the goal), at the same time, Sevilla apparently, allows them to play like this, creating a comfortable two-goal lead during the match. I hope I have described in detail why I made such a bet on Sevilla’s victory today and why it went well.
Let's look at the second match that I chose to bet on today. This is a match of the third Bundesliga between Arminia and Energi. The odds for Arminia's victory were 1.91, and I decided to bet on this outcome. Now I will explain why I made such a prediction for this match.
As you can see, “Arminia” is in first place in this league, and before the start of the match they had 59 points. The regulations of this league are such that the first two places go to the division above - the second Bundesliga. And “Arminia” undoubtedly strives to get there. The Energia team is in 6th place and plays quite interesting football, and the situation in this match is very similar to the situation in the previous match we were considering.
Arminia strives to play to win, they have 19 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. Of course, they have misfires, but, as a rule, this team plays for results. They also scored 63 goals in 31 games - an average of 2 goals per game - which is a very good result. They are ahead of their nearest competitor by 6 points (3 points before the start of the match). And they play at home, which is also important. Energia conceded 37 goals in 31 games, while Arminia conceded 33 in the same number of matches - the situation here is very similar to the situation in the Spanish championship match, which we analyzed above. The defense of both teams is approximately the same level.
The motivation of the Arminia team is much higher than that of its opponent. “Energi”, by and large, has nothing to claim, but “Arminia” is striving for the second Bundesliga and is quite capable of getting there. This team plays at home, scores more goals, and is much more motivated - these are already three serious advantages in favor of the Arminia team.
We can see that Arminia forward, German Klos, leads the scorers race, but he is not in the lineup today. At the same time, after analyzing the table, we can conclude that it is not only he who scores and carries the team - Arminia has enough regularly scoring players. If they weren’t there, I most likely wouldn’t place a bet; I don’t want the bookmaker to deceive me.
Let's analyze the form of the teams.
In the last 15 matches at home, Arminia drew only 1 time, while the goal difference in almost every winning match was 2 goals.
As for Energa, the team plays rather sparingly away. They concede consistently, don't always score, and lose very often.
From all this we conclude that “Arminia” has more strength, more opportunities, more desires, they play at home, but “Energi” plays worse, the team’s form is also worse, they play away, but the motivation is not so strong - from the league they won’t be relegated, they won’t go down much in the table either, there’s practically no chance of competing for anything more than maintaining a residence permit in this division.
You can also analyze previous head-to-head meetings between teams, but here you should remember one thing - you need to take into account games for a maximum of two past years. Every year, team compositions change, old players leave and new players come, coaches and management change - over the course of a year, a club can experience many small changes, which in themselves are not very significant, but in total have a very serious impact on the development and performance of the club. Therefore, one cannot consider a match that took place two or three years ago in the context of today - it has nothing to do with it at all. Based on the information that is available through the MyScore service, I made my conclusions and bet on the victory of the Arminia team in this match - and earned 9,100 rubles from a bet of 10,000 rubles.
The analysis described above takes me much less time than it might seem to you. In the article I tried to highlight every moment. My analysis is based on my own knowledge and facts. That is, based on what I know from the nature of football, personal experience starting in 2004, when I bought myself a disc with the game “FIFA 2005” (by the way, playing this football simulator is very important, because it helps develop the thinking of a football coach) and on numbers, statistics, which are available to everyone.
Where will you earn
I would like to draw your attention to one more point. The last match in question took place in the third Bundesliga, and teams at this level usually have small stadiums, not many people visit them, and the lawn on which the players play is not of ideal quality. Also, the level of teams playing in this division is not very different from each other. Here you can rarely find too small coefficient for the victory of one or another team (for example, for the victory of Barcelona or Real Madrid against any other team in the Spanish championship). In the lower divisions, the strengths of the teams are more or less equal, and the odds for the teams to win will be in the region of 1.5 - 2 (unless, of course, the team in first place plays against the team in last place). In addition, bookmakers do not follow these leagues so closely. In the lower leagues there is less chance of you making a mistake when choosing a match. Therefore, be prepared for the fact that the main money you will earn on bets will be made by betting on matches of the lower divisions.
You can recall the recent match in the Spanish championship between Real Madrid and Athletic. It is important to know and remember that players of Real Madrid’s level have problems of a completely different kind than those of more modest teams. Players may quarrel among themselves, attacking players, in pursuit of goals and recognition, may not always work on defense, refuse to play, etc. Teams that are more modest do not have such problems - they have completely different motivation and different football. I repeat, you should make most of your money in the second and third leagues, because the matches there are more predictable.
I would also note that in one article it is impossible to explain absolutely all aspects of the analysis of a football event; each match and each situation is unique in its own way, and it is impossible to analyze everything using one template. The importance of training should not be overestimated - figuratively speaking, you can attend lectures on how to learn to swim for five years, or you can learn to do it yourself in a week, starting to swim from a shallow body of water. In any business, action generates results - if you do, if you practice, you will understand much faster how to do it correctly. But you shouldn’t hope for lightning-fast results either - you can’t quickly learn to drive a car, quickly build up muscles, you can’t learn to do anything quickly and at the same time well, including making money on bets. This takes time and effort. Of course, you can, but remember that your only and main teacher is your own experience. In this article, I presented information that can generate you an additional 30-40 thousand rubles per month. And you shouldn’t use it at all if you are going to play with your last money - without free money you won’t be able to earn other money this way.
We have already talked about what is important to consider when conducting and. Any bet must be justified, that is, the capper must determine. How to achieve this? Of course, you can’t do this without a thorough and competent analysis of a football match. Let's touch on this one today important topic, like sites for analyzing football matches. If you strive to win more often than lose, if you expect to make significant profits from sports betting, you just need to familiarize yourself with our TOP resources football statistics, significantly simplifying the life of every betting fan.
Websites for analyzing football matches: what information do you need to know?
So, what do we need to conduct a competent analysis of a football match? It is important to know the following:
- Team uniforms;
- Motivation;
- List of injured football players;
- Performance statistics
Is not full list, but even such information in most cases can be easily found on the official websites of the teams. The team form can be easily determined by looking at latest results club. We can say that this is superficial information. If a capper closely follows a certain championship, reads the news, then he does not need any resources at all, since all necessary information he gets while watching football matches (results, injuries, disqualifications).
But, there is always a risk of missing some important point. Plus, with the help of specialized resources, you can discover a certain pattern, or in other words, a football trend. It is also impossible to track literally everything if the capper’s area of interest includes several football championships at once. Well, let's now move directly to five sites for analyzing football matches, which even the most real betting guru cannot do without.
Soccerstats
An indispensable resource for those who like to work with statistics. This resource simply stores a huge information base on the top and not the most popular football championships. By the way, there is also a column with steadily repeating events. Of course, sooner or later trends end or complete their first cycle, but it is likely that after some time the second cycle will begin.
Using the example of the Bayer - Bayern match, we see that the pharmacists have not lost for 12 matches in a row, and have also scored in each of the last 17 games. A good tip for betting fans. In general, such sites for analyzing football matches are simply irreplaceable
Soccerway
Another resource with a huge database. Here you will also find detailed statistics for all the leading football championships, as well as some statistics for unpopular competitions. As for me, one of the main advantages of Soccerway is the availability of statistics of goals scored and conceded by various teams over time periods. Using the example of the Real Madrid – Numancia match, we see that both teams like to score in the second halves closer to the end of regular time. How to apply this in betting? Very simple! You can try to play such options as the total of the second half is greater than the first, Real Madrid will score between 75 and 90 minutes, and a whole host of other options.
But you don’t need to be guided only by statistics. As we know, teams often enter cup matches with minor squads, especially when the result of the first game is 3:0 in favor of one of the teams. There is no point in listing sites with the main components within the scope of this article, and in general. Look on the official resources and Twitter of the teams. As for soccerway, we strongly recommend that you diversify your sites for analyzing football matches with tools from Sockerway.
24scores
Do you like to bet on corners and yellow cards on totals? This resource is what you need! You can find detailed information on corners for any team. Also according to the judges on 24scores is detailed information, when, in what game and how many “mustard plasters” were shown. If you are interested in unpopular types of bets, we also recommend that you familiarize yourself with. In just a few seconds we managed to find the statistics of a certain Portuguese judge Gonzalo Martinez. From the information found, you can see that Martisen officiated six matches of the top Portuguese football championship this season, in which he showed 30 yellow cards and four red ones.
To find statistics on corners, just click on any team of interest, after which information on corners taken in a specific match, in a season, on average per game will open. Didn't know about this resource? Be sure to supplement your sites for analyzing football matches with an extremely useful tool from 24scores
Simplesoccerstats
It is also worth saying a few words about such a Western resource as Simplesoccerstats. The site maintains statistics for thousands of teams from various football divisions. Based on the information available in the database, you can easily find the most valuable football clubs for certain betting options using special filters.
The service allows you to filter clubs according to various criteria. Thus, any capper will be able to select several matches for himself at once for an express or ordinary, in the best possible way suitable for total betting options, both will score.
Conclusion
This concludes our short mini tour of various statistical resources, which will now significantly expand your sites for analyzing football matches. Don’t forget also about, where forecasts for various football matches, analytical and other educational materials are published every day :)
Novice bookmaker users constantly make mistakes. No matter how well thought out the strategy is, you always need to look at the statistics, follow the news and check various data.
There is a category of betters who treat bets as gambling, they only calculate by chance, this is not correct.
How to analyze football for betting? Until you learn to make forecasts based on important data, you will not be able to increase your bank.
Besides the fact that many do not check anything, there are also those who attach great importance unimportant factors and, conversely, ignores the most important factors.
5 important points when analyzing football
It’s good if you have already found many different sites that help you make forecasts. We have already talked about helpful information It appears on the Internet all the time, you need to use it.
But nothing will come of it without your opinion, and so that you can correctly analyze the matches, remember the most important points:
- The first thing you need to do is look at the general standings; it is presented on many sites. Depending on the chosen strategy and other points, you need to evaluate different data.
- Next you need to determine the tournament leaders (clear favorites). The best situation for a bet is when one of the leaders has lost several games in a row. This may be related to for various reasons, starting with injuries to some players, ending with a seasonal decline. The leaders do not stay as outsiders for long, so they must win in subsequent games. The main thing is to determine real reasons defeats, perhaps in this tournament the favorite will remain at the bottom of the table.
- In football tournaments, it often happens that a team loses by a large margin. It's one thing if it's an outsider, a weak team. It’s another matter if it’s a leader or at least an average player. This is a shame for them, so they will definitely want to get even, the team’s motivation will be at its best. If you see how a strong team won with defeat, and even they played on a foreign field, and next game is coming “at home”, feel free to bet on it.
- Next, information about the upcoming event is analyzed. You need to take into account everything, from the location of the players on the field to the running conditions and uniform of each team member. Remember that players play better on their home field; after several defeats, a strong team will try to increase the number of points. It also often happens that when teams that occupy subsequent places in the standings meet, the one that was lower makes every effort to get ahead of the competitor.
- Before opening a bet, be sure to check the odds and read the opinions of professionals on various forums. Forecasts based solely on dry statistics often remain unsuccessful, so you just need to apply analysis and remember the patterns. Some of these have evolved into betting rules.
Don’t try to analyze football in general, choose a specific tournament and make predictions based on it. Teams can play differently in different championships and this must be taken into account.
Most of the bookmaker's players can classify themselves as losers. Short-term streaks of luck give way to crushing losses. Moreover, bets that, at first glance, had a 95% success rate, often lose.
What leads to this? What makes someone who was just yesterday a complete gambler? If we do not take into account the lack of financial discipline in betting and self-control, the main reason for losing in football betting is insufficient analysis of the upcoming event and, as a result, an incorrect forecast.
Below we will present methods and recommendations for making the optimal forecast for football matches. This algorithm has been tested on more than 300 matches of various championships from around the world. The result of applying the technique is about 73% of winning predictions with average odds of 1.6-1.9.
What should you do before making a forecast for a game in any championship:
- You should familiarize yourself in detail with the position of the teams in the standings in the current season. Study the tasks set by the management of each club for its players. View transfer activity preceding the start of the championship and correlate it with the goals of the teams (If the management of a middling club declares, for example, that it is aiming for the Champions League or League of Legends, but has not acquired one, how significant player, then this can be regarded as an ordinary PR move).
- It is necessary to look at the dynamics of the team in past seasons. Assess stability and potential risks (Even if the Omsk “GazKvass” is spectacular at the beginning of the season, but in previous years showed a slurred game - this is also an alarm bell).
By the way, regarding forecasting championships
It is recommended to make forecasts for the top divisions (minimum - first league) of countries with developed football and infrastructure for it. Predicting matches of the 4th League of the Western Division of the Chelyabinsk Territory is a thankless and unprofitable task. Teams from “weak” leagues, as a rule, do not have a sufficient material and technical base, qualified personnel, and many subjective factors can affect the result (someone was not paid a salary and was offended, while someone went to see their aunt for her name day).
So, let's get to the main point. When it is relatively clear: which club is what, what its goals are and what kind of players it has, you can start making forecasts. I would like to note that you can make forecasts for any pairs of teams with the exception of two cases:
- You shouldn’t take the first and last rounds (it’s better to skip 2-3 rounds at the beginning and end of the season). At the beginning of the season, many teams get into a rhythm, but at the end, naturally, those clubs that fulfilled the coaching task (won the championship ahead of schedule, won a trophy, guaranteed themselves European leagues etc.) play “for the holidays”.
- You should not predict the games of your favorite teams, since subjective judgments will necessarily prevail over objective facts.
Algorithm for collecting information to make a forecast
Firstly, 5-7 days before the event you should watch a video review of the last tour. It would be desirable if this were TV program or a specialized online publication. Journalists, sports experts and commentators on these resources carefully analyze past games, tactics and roster changes and, at the same time, quite competently make assumptions about the round of interest to us.
By the way, this is another reason why you should choose famous championships. For all foreign championships, their analytical programs with Russian translation are quickly posted on torrents. This is very convenient for forecasting and proper analysis.
Secondly, 3-5 days before the event, you need to actively monitor all information on the clubs’ websites, in their fan communities and specialized football publications. They will allow you to summarize and systematize information.
Thirdly, you need to look at the available odds for various outcomes at bookmakers. You can take note of the most interesting ones. This can be done 2-3 days before the match. At the same time, you need to study the statistics of personal meetings. Paradoxically, even for eminent rivals, there are often middling players who regularly “spoil the blood” of the grandees.
That is, in three to four days it is necessary to collect maximum statistics and analytical information about the motivation of each team, technical and game readiness and local goals for the upcoming game. Based on this, you can choose one of the previously marked forecasts.
The final “chord” of football forecasting should be the last training day and the pre-match conference of the coaches of each team. It is then that the lineup becomes clear and, sometimes, interesting details of upcoming matches emerge. After the coaches speak, you can finally make a prediction and place a bet.
Conclusion
Many may say that this is a very painstaking and tedious task. Watch for hours, listen to the “babble” of experts, write down a bunch of numbers, memorize statistics and analyze. It’s easier to bet on the favorite and skim off the cream. I would like to respond to all this like this:
- you bet your money and if you want to win, you need, oddly enough, to work hard;
- betting on a favorite with low odds will inevitably, sooner or later, lead to a loss. It’s better to spend time on forecasting, but be in the black due to high traffic and decent odds.
For people who are “friendly” with mathematics, we can strongly advise using the methods mathematical statistics and modeling (eg, Bayes' formula) to make predictions.
Statistics and calculations, coupled with analysis and intuition, produce amazing results, and if you add good bonus from bookmaker Leon 20,000 rubles, life will become even better!
First week. Bank: $2210.14 Bets: +34-23=2 Profit: +210.14$
Second week. Bank: $2344.34 Bets: +34-41=2 Profit: +134.20$
Third week. Bank: $2573.84 Bets: +46-43=3 Profit: +229.50$
Third week on betting days
1 day. Bets +8-10 +150.40$ -100.00$ Profit: +50.40$
Day 2. Bets +6-6=0 +72.50$ -60.00$ Profit: +12.50$
Day 3. Bets +16-14=1 +239.10$ -130.00$ Profit: +109.10$
Day 4 Bets: +6-9=2 +67.50$ -88.00$ Profit: -20.50$
Day 5 Bets: +10-4=0 +118.00$ -40.00$ Profit: +78.00$
..........................................................................................................................................
Total for 3 weeks: Bank $2573.84 Rates: +114-107=4 Profit: +573.84$
We have already written that to select a match for betting, we use falling odds and monitor the likely value of the event. Today I want to tell you what criteria we use to analyze a match before placing a bet. It should be noted that we usually do brief analysis according to 3-4 parameters. Because there are a lot of matches with tasty odds, but little time, and sometimes you want to bet on everything. You have to hurry, do everything quickly, and haste is only good for catching fleas, as you know. For this reason, the percentage of bets passed decreases. So the “lice check” must be carried out thoroughly, taking into account various aspects of the upcoming match.
So, let's look at the example of one match to see how this happens. We chose Soccer game French Championship, which will take place on February 28, but today some beeches offer an inflated odds on the guests' zero handicap.
There is a desire to put a zero handicap on the guests, considering the odds to be value ones.
We compare teams according to our criteria.
- Position in the table
- Face-to-face meetings
- Face-to-face meetings at home/away
- Latest games
- Games with higher teams
- Games with lower teams
- Games at home/away
- Sports component
- Movement of bookmaker lines
- Team losses
- Player status
- Field state
- Weather
- Judge
- Add. information
As you can see, we got as many as 15 parameters. Surely something else can be added, but for now let’s look at the existing ones.
Position in the table. Bastia are ahead by 5 points, higher by 6 lines. but the teams have exactly 8 victories each. Based on this parameter, we will still give 1 point in favor of the guests.
Face-to-face meetings. Let's take the last 5 games. 2-2=1 bonus point goes to no one.
Face-to-face meetings at home/away. Since we are going to bet on the guests’ handicap, we consider it from this point of view. And in the last five head-to-head games, Bastia have never won away, only one draw and one defeat. Moreover, there have been no away victories since 1998. There is no point in looking further. The point goes to Lorient.
Latest games. Bastia score.
Games with superiors. Here we are considering Lorient, since it is lower. One defeat in the last five matches with higher teams. 2 wins, 2 draws. Plus 1 point
Games with subordinates. Plus 1 point for Bastia. 3 wins 1 draw
Games at home/away. No point is awarded to anyone - both teams are at the bottom of the table based on their performance.
Sports component. Lorient needs glasses more, plus 1 point
Bookmaker lines. There is a slight drop in the home win of 5-6% for all beeches. It makes sense to take a closer look 3 days before the match, since usually the so-called popans are placed on the day of the match. So there are 2 options - or a pre-made impressive one, but not very big bet, or not very significant information, because the percentage drop is low. In any case, the beeches inflate the odds on Bastia so that they bet on her too. In this case, a kind doctor would advise monitoring the patient’s condition for another day in the hospital, that is, monitoring the movement of the odds. One point goes to Lorient at the moment.
Other parameters We usually don't check. I think it’s important to watch them if you bet 1 match a week. We have a lot of games every day and if we come across any information, we take it into account. But we don’t look specifically - we don’t have enough time.
What did we do? The score is 4-3 in favor of Lorient. The advantage was due to a slight drop in odds on Lorient. 56% to 44% for Lorient to win. For the beeches, it’s 70% versus 30%. Right now, this means that the odds on guests of 3.35 are really 14% worth. You know, when I compared the teams, I didn’t look at the percentage of currencies that our machine gave out. And now I updated it and looked - 13.42% This is a value profit, and the value index is 1.091 real odds on guests 3.07 I’m shocked! With a small mathematical error, I calculated the currency on a par with the typewriter)) But no, I’m not a genius. The machine and bookmakers use the same data, they just think better, more professionally. But in this case everything coincided.
Here I must say that I took the maximum odds for guests from the marathon. Now let's check with other beeches. And what do we see? Only three beeches give higher than the real odds of 3.07. The rest have from 2.40 to 3.05 Once again we are convinced that there is currency. Moreover, as many have noticed, there is also an arb of 1.20% If you bet on Lorient, the maximum is 1.45 at the Intervetten beech and 3.35 on Bastia at the marathon.
The third and fourth digits are the margin and the time of the last update
But the match is not suitable for our strategy. There is no big drop in odds, and we take value odds when there are clear chances of winning. And when 3 good beeches give money, there is reason to doubt a positive result. I personally am inclined to believe that the match will end in a draw.
Yesterday we didn’t place bets, we haven’t chosen anything for today either, but closer to midnight bets on falling odds may appear - after dinner we’ll keep track of everything)
