Medvedev's illness fueled rumors of his resignation. Experts commented on rumors that appeared recently about the prime minister’s imminent departure from his post.
Medvedev's resignation 2017: experts assessed the rumors that appeared
Recently, the media and Internet users have been actively circulating rumors about the possible resignation of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, and his recent and sudden appearance at Krasnaya Polyana in Sochi has become perhaps the most discussed topic on the Internet.
Despite the intensification of rumors about the imminent resignation of the prime minister, experts believe that this is unlikely to happen before the presidential elections in Russia.
"Close to power intkkihs Political scientists and political strategists believe that Medvedev’s resignation is unlikely before 2018. It is quite possible to aggravate the situation with radical personnel changes in the pre-election year, and Putin has repeatedly used this technique, but it is unlikely to be used over such a long period of time,” said a commentary on the portal actualcomment.ru.
According to experts, the initiators of the campaign are more likely to pursue other goals.
“The campaign is needed to create a negative background and additional tension before the upcoming discussion of the government’s activities - the next anniversary of the May 2012 presidential decrees is approaching. Of course, the Government has something to criticize for, and some of the tasks set by Putin were never fulfilled. Search for the “extreme” sharply intensified,” the article says.
At the same time, in addition to the possible resignation of Medvedev, rumors appeared about the imminent departure of Arkady Dvorkovich and Igor Shuvalov. According to experts, the authorities may well sacrifice unpopular ministers in order to fend off criticism from the electorate. Another candidate for relegation is Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky.
“At the end of 2016 - beginning of 2017, Dmitry Medvedev’s position was strengthened. And information attacks are not carried out against a person who is about to leave office. Therefore, the current prime minister has a good chance of working in his current post at least until the eve of the presidential elections,” he comments. leading analyst of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications Mikhail Neizhmakov.
In turn, the head of the Institute of Political Sociology, Vyacheslav Smirnov, believes that “Medvedev will remain for a long time,” notes Federal Press.
“It is advisable or not advisable to change the prime minister before the presidential elections. But after the presidential elections, why change? The president has already received his 65-75 percent, and who the prime minister will be is no longer so important,” the political scientist said.
Director of the Center for Regional Policy Development Ilya Grashchenkov is confident that “Medvedev can remain in office until his departure becomes a necessary step to preserve the power of Putin himself.”
“He is a loyal ally of the president, he has proven his loyalty. He has even proven his effectiveness, because under his leadership the United Russia party won the State Duma elections in 2016. He created his own powerful clan, which includes up to 30% of Russians governors. It influences the largest financial industrial groups, such as Gazprom,” the expert added.
According to Gazeta.Ru sources, some high-ranking government officials and key ministries are looking for new job, in anticipation of the presidential elections in March 2018, the resignation of the government and the formation of a new cabinet. Some people don’t expect Dmitry Medvedev to remain prime minister, others want to change nervous work to something more calm.
Among the “top” vacancies popular among officials are positions in the management and boards of directors of state corporations, companies with state participation and large government agencies, and positions in international organizations. Among those who do not expect to continue working in government,
they name the head of the government apparatus Sergei Prikhodko and several of his employees, the Minister of Labor Maxim Topilin, the Minister of Health Veronika Skvortsova, Deputy Prime Ministers Olga Golodets and Arkady Dvorkovich.
The latter suffered on September 27 from President Vladimir Putin, who, against the backdrop of the scandal with the VIM-Avia airline, accused the relevant official of “not paying enough attention to transport system": "Perhaps you are too overloaded? We already talked about this".
In addition, according to Gazeta.Ru, Dmitry Medvedev’s head of protocol, Marina Entaltseva, went on a long vacation.
At the same time, the Prime Minister's press secretary Natalya Timakova sharply denied Gazeta.Ru information regarding the government apparatus. “Entaltseva is at work from next Monday, Prikhodko is not leaving anything, and I don’t know a single high-ranking employee of the apparatus who would be looking for work,” Timakova emphasized.
“I sincerely assure you that your sources are lying to you. I wonder for what purpose?” she said.
However, Gazeta.Ru’s interlocutor, close to the Kremlin, does not believe that all this clearly indicates Medvedev’s approaching resignation after the presidential election. He believes that the current prime minister is still first on the president's list as the new head of government.
“But, after information attacks on him, the gap between him and other successors has narrowed. He is no longer absolutely the first,” says the source.
Vladimir Putin, if he runs for election and becomes president, may well leave Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister in order to maintain the current status quo and not strengthen any of the power groups. Instead, the ministerial body will be radically updated.
In the same vein of preserving the current configuration, one can consider the appearance in the prime minister's chair of one of the heavyweight officials such as Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko or presidential aide Andrei Belousov.
But multiple sources say there is a good chance the prime minister will not be from the old guard. Moreover, it is possible that this will happen even before the presidential elections.
The choice of a specific candidate will largely be determined by what agenda Vladimir Putin formulates for himself. It is already obvious that he will not give preference to any specific program social economic development.
The head of state was presented with several documents, in particular, the CSR program of Alexei Kudrin, the “Growth Strategy” of business ombudsman Boris Titov and the government program prepared by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin. The election platform will be compiled from these and other proposals.
Of course, it cannot be completely ruled out that the program of, for example, Alexei Kudrin will be adopted as a basis. The ex-Minister of Finance has all the qualities to become Prime Minister, but judging by the latest statements and actions of the President, the agenda “ fourth term"will include fashionable items such as digitalization and robotization, and a significant part of it will be addressed to a young audience.
The trend towards personnel rejuvenation of the state apparatus fits into this approach.
And the “young agenda” needs a young technocrat prime minister.
Bloomberg, citing several officials, previously reported that 35-year-old Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin “has grown into Putin’s favorite.” Sources of Gazeta.Ru note that he is among the candidates for the post of head of government.
But Oreshkin may have competitors. Recently, Vladimir Putin discussed ways to increase economic growth not only with him, but also with the Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov. And there is also, for example, the head of the Federal Property Management Agency, Oreshkin’s deputy, Dmitry Pristanskov. He has experience working for a large corporation (Norilsk Nickel), and even before that he worked in the prosecutor’s office. Or Energy Minister Alexander Novak, who is very successfully negotiating with OPEC.
An alternative to a young technocrat could be one of the top managers large companies or banks (like the head of Sberbank German Gref and the chairman of the board of Gazprom Alexei Miller) or a female prime minister. The last option is progressive and answers modern fashion for gender equality.
In the system of government bodies, there are not many women with prime ministerial potential: Speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, Head of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova.
Political scientists and various kinds insiders are discussing other candidates, as well as possible government configurations. For example, there is a widespread version that the president can completely eliminate the post of head of government and subordinate the cabinet directly to himself. In this case, according to Gazeta.Ru, a “super ministry” could be created, which would include the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Finance.
Another revolutionary option is the introduction of elements of a parliamentary republic. In this case, the government will be formed by a parliamentary majority, although the powers of the head of state are unlikely to be greatly reduced.
Taking into account the likely transformation of the state power system, Gazeta.Ru has compiled a shortlist of potential candidates for prime minister.
Prime Minister from Parliament
Chairman of the State Duma
Vyacheslav Volodin
Vyacheslav Volodin was one of the most influential people in the presidential administration, and some observers called his move to parliament a demotion. But if the Kremlin decides to implement the option of moving to forming a government by parliament, then Volodina’s shares will instantly jump in price. An experienced bureaucrat may well expect to occupy the chair of the head of the cabinet. However, even without a “parliamentary maneuver” Volodin may end up in the prime minister’s chair.
Professional woman
Head of the Bank of Russia
Elvira Nabiullina
Vladimir Putin has been working with Elvira Nabiullina for many years and appreciates her. As vice president of the Center for Strategic Research, she participated in the development of the program for his first presidential term, then headed this fund, worked as deputy minister and minister of economic development, and assistant to the president. Nabiullina is the first head of the Central Bank of Russia, who managed to achieve fantastic success in the fight against inflation. In September it remained at 3.2%, which is even below the Central Bank’s target level of 4%. At the same time, the Central Bank's policy in the banking sector irritates many, and moving to work in the government would be a good decision for everyone.
Bureaucrat-economist
Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation
Andrey Belousov
Another former head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Andrei Belousov, today coordinates the work of the presidential administration with economic programs developed by expert centers. He is an experienced official and a competent economist; according to rumors, some influential forces have united to promote Belousov as a counterweight to the “power bloc.”
Governor-modernizer
Mayor of Moscow
Sergei Sobyanin
The country's chief renovator, Sergei Sobyanin, has established himself as a person capable of making “Europe out of Russia,” despite the costs and public opinion. He learned to handle the latter in such a way that even from very difficult situation, such as the protests against renovation, came out almost triumphantly. The mayor of Moscow won the elections against Alexei Navalny, and in the last municipal elections made the opposition feel like winners, but at the same time United Russia received more than 75% of parliamentary mandates. It is possible that on this moment, Sobyanin is the most effective leader region in the country.
Effective manager
President of Sberbank
German Gref
One longtime member of Vladimir Putin's team, worked with him back in the mayor's office of St. Petersburg, and was Minister of Economy in the federal government from 2000 to 2007. He transformed Sberbank from a Soviet institution into a fairly modern credit organization. One of those people who constantly generate a reform agenda. At the moment, his favorite topics are the reform of the public administration system, as well as everything related to the digital economy - “big data”, blockchain, etc. He is a “duty” candidate for the prime minister’s chair.
Famous reformer
Head of the Center for Strategic Research Foundation
Alexey Kudrin
One of the programs for Vladimir Putin’s “fourth presidential term” was written by the TsSR under the leadership of Alexei Kudrin. The former finance minister, who lost his place in the government due to harsh words addressed to Dmitry Medvedev, who was the country's president at that time, believes that it is necessary to reduce spending on defense and the state apparatus, invest more in education, and also advocates raising the retirement age . Kudrin is one of those people who Vladimir Putin listens to, and he is constantly tipped for high positions in power. In all respects he is suitable for the prime minister's position, but requires too much independence in decision-making.
Vladimir Putin, as you know, loves unexpected moves. So his two prime ministers - Mikhail Fradkov and Viktor Zubkov - were people on whom no one bet. The first one comes from the intelligence services with experience in government (he headed the ministry foreign trade), the second is a St. Petersburg functionary who worked with Putin at the mayor's office. Such people still exist today. For example, the head of the Federal Customs Service, Vladimir Bulavin, served in the state security agencies from 1977 to 2008. Or the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, who at one time headed the presidential administration, worked as deputy prime minister and speaker of the State Duma. In addition, Vladimir Putin may well promote one of the young governors who recently went through the election procedure. There are many young and promising people there - the head of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov (31 years old), the Novgorod governor Andrei Nikitin (37 years old), the governor of Sevastopol Dmitry Ovsyannikov (40 years old), the head of Udmurtia Alexander Brechalov (43 years old). In general, the president has a lot of “jokers” in his deck, and the decision could turn out to be very interesting.
Young technocrat
Minister of Economic Development
Maxim Oreshkin
Maxim Oreshkin took over as head of the Ministry of Economic Development after Alexey Ulyukaev was detained in October 2016 on charges of taking a bribe. Many believed that the young deputy finance minister was simply given the opportunity to “hold his place” until the presidential elections in March 2018. Less than a year later, Bloomberg named Oreshkin as Vladimir Putin's new favorite, and numerous Kremlin and government sources call him one of the main candidates for the post of prime minister. Maxim Oreshkin is also the developer of one of the programs for the socio-economic development of Russia until 2024. The document has not yet been published anywhere, but Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev personally delivered it to the president, who gave the corresponding instructions to the government.
Bloomberg named candidates to replace Medvedev after the presidential elections and possible successor Putin.
With the approach of the next presidential elections in the Russian Federation, political tension is growing in the country. And the question that worries observers, oddly enough, is not who will become the new head of state, but who will take the post of prime minister. Despite the fact that current President Vladimir Putin has not yet given his consent to compete for his seat, he is already predicted to confident victory. After it, he will have to dissolve the government and present a candidate for the post of prime minister for approval by the State Duma.
According to Bloomberg, among the possible candidates for the post of prime minister there are three favorites - the chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin and the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov.
According to agency sources, various influential forces, including those from business, are beginning to consider possible candidates for the presidency in 2024, although this is still very far away. At the same time, lobbyists advocating for replacing the current head of government have become more active. Dmitry Medvedev a stronger manager, capable of making more efforts “to revive the floundering economy.”
In the spring, the same agency, citing two of Medvedev’s associates, reported that the head of government was concerned about his political future. In turn, then the presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov to this he said: “I don’t think Bloomberg knows Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev well and may have such information.”
It is quite difficult to say why exactly these three candidates came to the attention of Bloomberg, because not three, but at least thirty-three candidates can hypothetically count on the prime minister’s chair, believes the CEO of the National Energy Security Fund Konstantin Simonov. As the interlocutor of the Kolokol Rossii newspaper noted, Western agencies are quite actively involved in all sorts of so-called rumor-making regarding successors and candidates for the post of prime minister. Earlier, the same Bloomberg wrote that “Putin’s most favorite official is Minister Oreshkin.” Of course, those people whom the influential agency lists are on the list for the prime minister’s post, and rumors around them are actively being circulated. However, it cannot be ruled out that after some time there will be another list with new applicants.
“Today the situation has developed in such a way that everyone understands that the main intrigue of the 2018 election campaign is not at all presidential elections, but the choice of the head of government. And there is every reason to believe that the president will do it after March 18. But since all politic system the country has come into motion in the form of reshuffles and resignations, all this contributes to increased nervousness against the backdrop of the fact that Putin himself is stubbornly silent regarding his nomination, although everyone understands perfectly well that he will go to new term. Moreover, this entire uncertain situation actively provokes a huge number of rumors and gossip, which also appear in the information field,” the expert noted.
At the same time, the publication’s interlocutor did not rule out that in this way a certain image could be deliberately formed in the information field around a certain candidate. But it often happens that the more often the media writes about a candidate, the less chance he has of occupying a certain post.
Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, President Putin will dissolve the government and appoint a new prime minister after winning the 2018 elections, while, as the agency notes, his choice may become a sign of who he wants to see as his successor.
“Given that the figure of the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation is one of the top in the country’s leadership, all influential clans will fight for the post, since having their own prime minister is the dream of any nomenklatura group. At the same time, the current head of the cabinet of ministers, Medvedev, is one of the contenders for the prime minister’s post, and he is still the favorite in this race, therefore, everyone who is not part of Medvedev’s personal clan is all supporters of his resignation from his position,” concluded Konstantin Simonov.
As an example of the escalation of confrontation political elites Bloomberg cites the case brought against the ex-minister Ulyukaeva on charges of extorting a bribe from the head of Rosneft Sechin. As the authors of the article note, everyone is now waiting to see what turn Ulyukaev’s trial will take, in the hope that the verdict will hint at Putin’s intentions. A guilty verdict would be a blow to the already weakened economic technocrats.
Director of the Institute of Modern state development Dmitry Solonnikov called Bloomberg's note biased, and the whole argument, in his opinion, boils down to the fact that they are all famous people and take an active part in the leadership of the country. As the interlocutor of the Bell of Russia newspaper noted, it is not entirely clear why several people from the liberal clan were not included in the list, for example, Maxim Oreshkin, whom some consider as one of the favorites of the head of state, and Alexey Kudrin, who is actively lobbied by a certain structure for the premiership. Plus, there is no alternative candidate to the liberal bloc, for example, the same Sergei Shoigu.
“Any choice of prime minister now will be a signal for the formation of the image of Russia in the next stage of the country’s development. Therefore, the future head of the cabinet of ministers may become a potential successor to the president (if Putin nominates his candidacy for a new presidential term - ed.) However, there is every reason to believe that he will not ultimately become a contender for the presidency if an early resignation occurs head of state until 2024. As previous practice has shown, before leaving Boris Yeltsin appointed prime minister for a short term Sergei Stepashin, then was appointed to this post Vladimir Putin. Thus, it is quite possible that a technical prime minister will be appointed, who will work for a certain time, but will be replaced at the earliest last moment, before it is necessary to appoint an acting president,” the publication’s interlocutor suggested.
According to political scientist Dmitry Solonnikov, the scenario looks more realistic, and this has already happened in history, when Vladimir Putin went to elections with a new cabinet of ministers, saying that this team would implement his new election program. It is possible that this time a similar scenario could happen again, especially since it would be a good pre-election move.
Anatoly Molchanov
Dmitry Travin, professor at the European University in St. Petersburg, economist:
I will emphasize the words “it seems to me.” I'm not going to pretend that this is a scientific prediction or that I'm particularly aware. I have no evidence. I could easily be wrong. My guess is nothing more than an intellectual exercise. Let's practice together if you're curious.
Turchak is the son of one of Putin’s old St. Petersburg acquaintances. “The owner of the country” began to make his career back in 2009, when he appointed 33-year-old Turchak as governor. This was one of the youngest governors of Russia.
Over the course of 8 years, he was tested on his ability to form a team and take a hit. And nothing more is needed.
Today Turchak was returned to the federal level, making him secretary of the General Council of United Russia. From such a large federal post one can easily be appointed prime minister. At one time Fradkov and Zubkov were dug up from God knows where.
If, after 2024, Putin, in order to retain power, wants to change the constitution towards a parliamentary republic, where he will be an endless prime minister, like Merkel in Germany, then today he will need to strengthen (at least externally) the party nature of the government. Therefore, the head of the party in power will lead it.
By age, Turchak fits perfectly into common line for personnel rejuvenation. The head of the Kremlin administration, Anton Vaino, is only 3 years older than him. One generation.
The fact that Turchak may have a criminal history does not hinder him, but even helps. I don’t know and I’m not going to find out now whether he is guilty of something. But if there are problems, then having a prime minister hanging on a hook is best for Putin. Will not challenge the leadership of an aging boss. After all, Putin always appoints prime ministers who various reasons cannot be serious competitors to him.
And Turchak’s surname is not the best for becoming the father of the nation instead of Putin.
In general, a pocket prime minister who must carry out certain instructions from the owner. And the “Kremlin towers” that fought to eat Medvedev will be left with nothing. The normal logic of an autocrat is to shuffle “successors” so that no one really comes close to him.
And I don’t need to talk about the collapse of the Pskov region and Turchak’s inability to boost the economy. The task of raising it is no longer worth it. Government exists for someone else.
For the first time: https://www.facebook.com/dtravin61
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