High odds betting strategy. How does a bookmaker determine the odds? What event to bet on if the odds are too high?

15.11.2017

The concept of Value betting is one of the key ones in bookmaker terminology. Assessing the real probability of a particular event allows you not only to find unreasonably inflated odds, but also to be in the black at a distance.

Inflated odds

The essence of the game with inflated odds is that the player evaluates the probability of a particular outcome, compares it with bookmaker quotes, and if the odds are inflated (underestimation is observed), can indicate the value of this event and the prospects of the bet. For the best understanding Value consider famous example with a coin, the toss of which has only two possible outcomes: heads or tails.

If we represent the probability of each event in coefficients, they will be equal to two. This follows from the fact that the coefficient is equal to the ratio of the probability, that is, 50%, to 100%.

Let's assume that a bookmaker offered markets by setting the odds for heads and tails to be 1.90 and 2.10, respectively. Considering that in reality the probability of both outcomes is absolutely equal, odds on tails are valuable, because the the bookmaker set an inflated odds.

Value is calculated like this:

(probability of outcome * decimal odds) - 100%

Let's determine the value of a bet on heads.

We know that the chance of landing heads is 50%, and the bookmaker is offering 2.10

(50 * 2.10) - 100% = 5%

The bet is value and definitely suits us, because... its value is 5%. If you use the same formula to calculate the Value for an eagle, then it will be negative and in this case it is better to refuse the bet. The main principle of value bets is that the player, risking a smaller amount, tries to win a larger one.

The advantage of bookmakers

Obviously, in practice it is not so simple. The reality is that not a single bookmaker will offer such situations, because they will simply go bankrupt. Moreover, even odds of 1.90 for equally probable outcomes are very rare. Everything is explained by the fact that the bookmaker sets a margin that guarantees him income from all bets. It is worth noting that when choosing a bookmaker, you should pay attention to this Special attention, because the high margins have a negative impact on the player’s earnings, especially over the long haul.

Let's consider real example. At the beginning of October, at a tennis tournament in Beijing, a women's singles match took place between Russian M. Sharapova and Romanian S. Halep. Maria's victory was estimated at 1.74, Simona's at 2.22. This was explained by the fact that in the history of head-to-head meetings, the Russian woman led with a score of “7:0”, and last match between the rivals took place a little over a month ago. However, when detailed analysis match, which includes not only assessing statistical data, but also watching broadcasts of matches, it becomes obvious that the Romanian’s chances are higher than the 45.5% offered by the bookmaker. Let's say it's 50%.

Let's calculate the value of the bet on p. Halep in this match:

(50 * 2.22) - 100% = 11%

Firstly, Sharapova began to make much more mistakes. Secondly, if she wins the tournament, the Romanian would become the first racket in the world. Third, a thirst for revenge that has not been canceled. Based on the above, it could be said that Halep's chances are over 45.5%, which means that the player has a good prospect of a successful bet.

Search for inflated odds

Playing at “inflated” odds is one of the strategies (Value Betting strategy) on which the tactics of not only experienced, but also novice cappers are based. However, you need to understand that such coefficients can only be found by analyzing the event and taking into account all the factors influencing the outcome.

Assessing the real probability and comparing it with the odds offered by the bookmaker will allow you to identify underestimated events and catch the bookmaker in this. Therefore it is not surprising that professional players constantly trying to calculate the likely outcome by comparing it with bookmaker quotes in search of value bets, while spending time on news sites in search of valuable information, including information on injuries, weather conditions, personnel changes.

Value betting - “Value Betting” strategy

Value betting strategy or how to find value bets (value bets)

This is one of the most popular and interesting strategies for playing in bookmakers. The essence of this strategy is to bet on events that are underestimated by bookmakers. Thus, the player’s income will depend entirely on his knowledge in the field of sports and betting.

Introduction to "Value - betting".

In addition to the term “value bets,” you may come across the term “value bets,” which mean the same thing - overvalued bets on those outcomes for which the player considers the odds to be overvalued or inflated.

It often happens that bookmakers incorrectly assess the likelihood of certain events occurring. As a result, the odds on the bookmaker's line may not reflect real chances the occurrence of one outcome or another. This may be caused by a bookmaker’s error, or, for example, by inadequate loading, when the majority of players unreasonably bet (“load”) on one or another outcome. Problem b The goal is precisely to find such outcomes and correctly correlate them with one’s own assessment of their occurrence.

However, here it is important to have reliable information about the state of the teams (opponents), to be able to analyze it, so that your bet does not turn out to be to a greater extent random (at random). It is also important to have up-to-date information, since bookmakers react very quickly to various changes. For example, as soon as information appears that Messi will not take part in the next match of the Argentina national team, the bookmaker odds will almost immediately undergo significant changes. Most likely, the odds for winning “albiceleste” will increase (that is, the chances of winning will decrease). But a player who does not have operational information may still think that the Argentina team, led by Lionel Messi, should easily beat the average opponent. There is also an increased odds, for example, for Argentina to win 1.50, which someone who does not have real operational information may mistakenly count as a value bet.

“Value betting” gives a wide field for the player’s activities, allows you to play both on outcomes and totals (including individual ones), on handicaps (plus and minus), and bet on favorites and outsiders. Everything here will depend on your ability to find value bets and your objectivity in assessing the outcomes. In this matter, experience and deep current knowledge in the field of sports are very important. Therefore, to begin with, you can train on small amounts of bets. As confidence, skills, and with them positive results appear, you can raise the stakes.

At first you can play just a fixed flat, but then with experience, depending on the situation, you can raise or lower the bets.

Another feature, or rather a problem for beginners in the search for value bets, is the fear of large odds. Many novice players are accustomed to taking P1 (or P2) against Real Madrid and Barcelona, ​​but do not accept the possibility that the nominal underdogs may in fact turn out to be not so weak. If they don’t win, then, for example, strong middle peasants can score a draw, or score a goal against the coolest top clubs, which, moreover, may experience periods of recession. Therefore, it is important to restructure yourself psychologically and be ready to play against the favorites, sometimes at high odds.

One more thing, “value betting” is a strategy not designed for immediate winnings. You can make money using this strategy only over a distance, sometimes significant - a month, six months, a year. Therefore, you need to be mentally prepared to go a long way before joining the field and understanding the essence of “value betting.”

How to apply the strategy Value Betting.

Question: Why do most players lose money to the bookmaker?
Answer: Because they bet on the odds offered by bookmakers, without thinking about the statistics and the probability of the outcome in the long term.

First, let’s look at the essence of bookmaker odds and what they generally mean. In fact, they mean the probability of events occurring according to the bookmaker's office. For example, you will constantly bet 300 rubles on odds P1 with odds of 1.25. Moreover, you bet the same amount of 300 rubles. The probability of this bet passing, according to the bookmaker, will be: 100\1.25 = 80.00%.

As a result, 20.00% of your bets will not go through in the long run. This means that if you just play mindlessly, you will ultimately not be able to make a profit.

Profit is determined by the formula:

​ P - probability of event (value from 0 to 1, If the probability of an event occurring is 80%, then P = 0.8);

​ K - coefficient from the bookmaker;

​ V - the money you bet.

Let's count on real numbers from the example above

Profit = 0.8* (1.25 – 1)* 3 00 – (1-0,8)*300 = 60 – 60 = 0

But it won’t even be possible to break even, since the bookmaker sets a margin of several percent in the bookmaker’s odds. As a result, you will end up losing money.

The main formula for determining value bets

To apply the strategy, you need to use the simplest formula:
K x P > 1,
- where K - the odds of the outcome that you will take from the bookmaker's line,
—P— the probability of an outcome according to the player.
The probability in this formula ranges from 0 to 1. So if a player estimates the probability of an event occurring at 80%, then P = 0.8.

If in the end the product is higher than one, it means the outcome of this event is underestimated by bookmakers and you can play this outcome. Thus, you take undervalued outcomes with inflated odds, which should give you a plus over a long distance. Naturally, the player must understand the events in which he plays and adequately evaluate them.

Example. In the match Barcelona - Atletico Madrid you are considering a bet on “both will score”, the odds of which in the bookmaker’s line are 1.80. And in your opinion, the probability of such an event occurring is 70%. We multiply the coefficient by the probability and get: 1.8 x 0.7 = 1.26., which in turn more than one. Therefore, it makes sense to make such a bet.

1.26 - 1 = 0.26. This means that if you bet on such events, then in the long run, despite the losses, your profit will be 26% of each bet.

Let's use the formula for calculating profit that we discussed earlier.

Profit = P*(K-1)*V - (1-P)*V

Let's substitute the data into a formula that reflects expected value average profit and imagine that the player makes 100 bets of 200 rubles each.

Profit = 100 bets * 0.7 * (1.8-1) * 200 rub – 100 bets * (1-0.7) * 200 rub = 112,00 – 6,000 = 52,00 rubles

Example. The odds for Inter to win the match with Fiorentina are 1.55. You estimate the probability of victory to be 60%. We apply our formula and get: 1.55 x 0.6 = 0.93. The value turned out to be less than one, so it’s not worth making such a bet. Perhaps now the bet will win, but in the long run you will be in the red if you constantly play at such bets.

So, let’s repeat the main points of using the strategy Value Betting:

• carefully select the match, select the desired event, look at the odds;
• We determine the probability of an event based on analysis and analytics based on the information you have about the teams;
• apply the formula ( K x P > 1), multiply the bookmaker's odds by the probability.
  We compare the result obtained with one; if it is greater than one, then this event is underestimated and, by betting on it, we will have an advantage over the line.

How much to bet using the Value-betting strategy

An experienced player usually varies the bet size from 1 to 5% depending on his own confidence in the bet. But beginners are advised not to change the bet percentage and play all the time with the same percentage of the game bank (1-2 percent). Also, when calculating the bet amount, use strategies - the Kelly criterion, which allows you to calculate what percentage of the bank to bet on a particular value bet.

How to find value bets (value bets)

This is probably one of the main questions asked not only by novice players, but also perhaps by many experienced players. And how to distinguish a value bet from ordinary “normal” bets, at which you will not be able to make a profit over the course?

As a result of many years of gaming experience, cappers accumulate certain criteria by which they find bets with an advantage.

You need, no matter how trivial it may sound, to become an expert in the area where you will bet. Start with a non-top championship (for example, football), select several teams, follow their performances, study statistics, rosters, news. In general, you need to get as close as possible to the information that bookmakers have. Why is it recommended to choose a non-top championship? Because than more famous team, the more information the bookmaker has about it. In the top championships of England, Spain, Italy, Germany, there are actually not so many value bets compared, for example, to the second and third strongest divisions of these championships. Bookmakers skim off the cream of the crop from matches of popular clubs such as Real Madrid, Barcelona, ​​Manchester United, etc. In lower championships, bookmakers may not have all or even inaccurate information, and this is where bookmaker errors, expressed in irrational terms, are possible set odds that unrealistically reflect the capabilities and chances of teams. This is where you should take advantage of it.

Let's note one more important fact. Bookmakers have a large amount of information: physical and psychological condition players, pre-match situation, statistics, weather conditions, etc. However, such an assessment is subjective, because this is why the odds in different offices can differ significantly. Therefore, in a particular case, your assessment may turn out to be more objective compared to the bookmaker’s assessment.

If, after analyzing the upcoming match, you think that the odds for a certain event are too high by the bookmaker, then you should bet on this outcome.

IN We need to learn how to analyze the line and odds. You cannot play on just one simple outcome (1, x, 2). Be more flexible and variable in your analytics. Consider various options bets: simple outcomes, handicaps, total goals, individual totals commands And compare the odds on the line, that is, the probability determined by the bookmakers with the probability according to yours own assessment. Next, the formula is already familiar to us to help: K x P > 1. If you determine that the result is greater than one, bet.

Let us immediately tell you that there are services for searching value bets on the Internet, you can use them. For convenience, you can also use the value bet calculator - there is online programs, calculating the profitability of the bet.

To monitor the odds of most bookmakers, you can use the website oddsportal.com, myscore.ru, etc.

Advantages and disadvantages of the strategy " Value-betting ».

What is the advantage of using value bets compared to, for example, the same sure bets:

• you don't have to risk placing a bunch of bets on all shoulders at once
• you will never be blocked from a bookmaker, since your behavior will not arouse suspicion
• profits can be much higher than with sure bets

Main disadvantages

• It will take you a significant amount of time to learn how to identify value bets;
• You need to be prepared for a long distance and make a fairly large number of bets (at least 100) to feel the profit.

We hope this information was useful to you and will help you make money on the “Value-betting” strategy.

To be able to find inflated odds means to correctly analyze the upcoming event. How to find an inflated coefficient? To do this, you need to carry out a huge amount of analytical work, collecting as much data as possible for analysis.

It is necessary to evaluate the position of teams in the table, count victories, defeats, take into account personal confrontations and other statistical information. In this case, it is necessary to take into account a number of factors, such as team compositions, players absent due to injuries and disqualifications, the referee of the upcoming match, etc.

At the same time, we must not forget about the events that occur in the life of the club. These are coaching resignations and appointments, scandals, transfer acquisitions and sales, etc. The outcome of the match can be affected not only by these factors, but also by others, such as weather conditions.

Not everyone will like this activity, but there will be those who find it fascinating. In any case, this is an integral part for successful game on bets. Ability to find overestimated coefficient, this means having analytical skills no worse than . Or maybe it’s even better, because the essence of inflated odds is that the player evaluates the chances independently and compares them with those included in the bookmaker’s odds.

In addition to analyzing a sporting event, bookmaker lines are analyzed and the odds offered by the websites of several bookmakers are compared; these can be 5 or even 10 different Internet resources.

How to find an inflated odds

Find inflated odds- in other words, to detect an event in the bookmaker's line, where the odds do not reflect the real one, which, in your opinion, is slightly higher than in the opinion of the bookmaker.

The more qualitative, better and more correct you conduct a pre-match analysis of an underestimated (in your opinion) event, the greater the chances of success and the greater the likelihood that the bookmaker really underestimated the event by setting an inflated odds.

Value bet – in simple words, this is when your view of the outcome of the confrontation differs from the view of the bookmaker. Moreover, according to your calculations, the probability of the team winning is higher than the probability that the bookmaker offers in its odds.

I hope you understand the essence of searching for inflated odds; in the following articles this topic will be discussed in more detail.

If you bet on the outcome sports competitions, you need to be able to understand betting odds. In addition, you need to learn how to quickly calculate the likely winnings for various betting odds, especially when they change during the course of a sporting event. Betting odds determine the likelihood of a certain event happening (team wins, boxer wins) and the amount you will receive if you win. But there are several ways to convey such information.

Steps

Part 1

1. Betting odds determine the probability (chance) of a certain event happening, that is, which team, horse or athlete has a higher chance of winning. Exist various ways

   • records of betting odds, but they all indicate the probabilities of a particular outcome of a sporting event.
   • For example, there is an 80% chance of rain, meaning there is a 20% chance that it will not rain. Odds: 80 to 20. Or they say it's four times more likely to rain.
   • Circumstances change spontaneously, so the odds (and with them the betting odds) also change. It's not an exact science.

2. In most cases, bets are placed on the outcome of a specific sporting event. For example, the probability of a team, athlete or horse winning. Bookmakers use statistical data (teams, athletes, horses) to predict who will win.

   • The team, athlete or horse with the higher odds is the "favourite". If the odds are low, then most likely the event will not happen.

3. Remember that low odds bring more profit. Betting on underdogs is riskier than betting on favorites, but the higher the risk, the higher the potential winnings.

   • The less chance of winning, the more money you can win.

4. Know betting terminology. The meaning of such terminology can be found out at the bookmaker's office, but it is better to know it in advance (before placing a bet).

   • Bank - the amount of money allocated by the player for bets.
   • Bookmaker (“bookies”) is a person or agency that accepts bets, pays out winnings, and sets betting odds.
   • The favorite is the competitor with the highest chance of winning (according to the bookmaker).
   • Arb - bets on both the favorite and the outsider, allowing you to minimize losses.
   • Line - a specific list of events and their outcomes with established odds.
   • A bet is an amount of money that a player bets on the probability of a certain event occurring.

   Part 2

   British (fractional) betting odds

   Part 3

   American betting odds

   1. Remember that bets here only look at the odds of winning. American betting odds are positive or negative numbers written next to the team names. A negative number determines the favorite, and a positive number determines the underdog.

      • For example, Dallas Cowboys, -135; Seattle Seahawks, 135. This means the Cowboys are the favorites, but you'll get less money if they win.
      • If you are not familiar with American odds, find an online calculator to calculate your winnings and profits. But over time, you will learn to do it manually.

   2. A positive coefficient indicates how much profit you will make for every $100 you bet (you will also be paid the amount you bet).

      • For example, if you bet $100 on the Seahawks, if that team wins, you will win $235 (your profit is $135).
      • If you bet $200, your profit will double. To calculate your profit per dollar bet, divide the amount you bet by 100.
      • Multiply the result by the bet odds to calculate your profit. For example, if you bet $50, then (50/100) x 135 = $67.50. This is your profit margin.

   3. For example, if you bet $250 on the Cowboys, if that team wins you will win $587.50 (250 + 135 x). Negative odds indicate how much you must bet to win $100.

      • By betting on the favorite, you risk less, and therefore win less. For example, to make a profit of $100, you need to bet $135 on the Cowboys (you will also be paid the amount you bet).
      • To calculate the profit per dollar wagered, divide 100 by the bet odds. If the bet odds are -150, then you will receive 66 cents for every dollar wagered (100/150).

For example, if the bet odds are -150 and you bet $90, your winnings will be $150 (90 + 90 x). Betting on inflated odds is an opportunity to calculate the bookmaker, his abilities and place a bet with the most likely outcome

sporting event. Bookmakers and their analytical departments, numbering from hundreds to thousands of mathematical heads, take the most careful approach to setting lines for sporting events. Absolutely all risks, market offers, the state and situation in a particular championship are taken into account. Even weather conditions, which can also influence the outcome of a particular sporting event.

However, even experienced bookmakers cannot estimate the probability of the outcome of a sports match one hundred percent. They analyze all the collected information and set their own odds, which the client (bookmaker) accepts or not. This is precisely the professionalism of each player in the bookmaker’s office, finding the bookmaker’s mistakes and trying to place financial funds on them as early as possible.

To determine the inflated odds, the player must be an experienced capper and independently determine the teams’ chances. Without looking at the line of bookmakers, try to set your odds for the upcoming event. And ultimately compare it with the result of the bookmaker’s analytical departments. If the views of the player and the bookmaker differ on some outcomes, this is an overestimated or underestimated odds!

Example of a bet with inflated odds

And so, let’s look at an example of tossing a coin; the probability that it will land on its edge is a maximum of 0.02%. But if you think soberly, then you need to be a master or a magician to perform this trick. The probability that the coin will land heads up is 50%, tails is 50%. Translated to the bookmaker's line, these outcomes will be equal - 2.0 to 2.0. We withdraw the bookmaker's profit - the margin, in different ways for different companies, and we have a clear line that heads will fall - 1.95, tails will fall - 1.95. These are our calculations as a professional capper. And comparing with the line of bookmakers, we clearly see that the bookmaker offers us to play on the fact that heads will fall out for 1.7, tails respectively - 2.2. It is precisely outcome 2.2 that is an inflated odds.

In this case, the player, betting using this method, will absolutely always make a profit.