Political commentator Jay Mercury spoke about some aspects of the coup d'etat in Turkey and suggested what awaits the country in the near future.
In 2016, relations between the West and Turkey reached a dead end. Erdogan understood perfectly well that after he refused he would become a puppet Western countries, “democratic forces” will try to remove him. Erdogan also understood that the Turkish army was unreliable and could go against its president at any moment.
The only ally for Erdogan could be Russian President Vladimir Putin. Although Putin has no particular sympathy for the stubborn and proud Erdogan, he could not refuse to support him. For the next leader of Turkey would be a direct puppet of the United States.
After establishing relations between Turkey and Russia, Putin set the task of Russian intelligence to prevent the overthrow of Erdogan. In a short period of time, Kremlin agents (as Russian spies are called in the West - approx.) prevented an assassination attempt on Erdogan and identified the main instigators of the coup. In order to prevent the arrests of the main defendants, the West gave the command to the putschists to act and evacuated the main instigators.
Plan A failed. It was not possible to seize power in Turkey in one fell swoop.
Plan b Civil War. Now Erdogan is doing everything to prevent such a scenario.
According to media reports, mass arrests are underway in Turkey.
At least 90 people were killed during the attempted military coup in Turkey, and the number of people detained increased to 1,563. This was stated by the Speaker of the Turkish Parliament Kahraman.
According to Turkish media, detentions are now being carried out throughout the country.
Regarding whether Türkiye will become the new Syria or Libya, we will find out in the near future.
In Turkey, information about an impending rebellion was intercepted through secret communication channels. The Russian military, in particular, learned about the departure of several Turkish helicopters to the hotel where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was staying, and warned Ankara. This was reported by the Iranian Fars agency, citing several Arab media outlets, which were told about this by sources in diplomatic circles.
According to diplomats, the Russian army intercepted coded radiograms and particularly important information exchanged between the military. They testified to the preparation of a coup d'etat. After this, Moscow handed over the data to the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT).
In particular, among the intercepted information there was information about the departure of several helicopters towards a hotel in Marmaris, where Erdogan was located at that time, before the start of the military coup. Earlier, the media confirmed that the Turkish President managed to leave the hotel shortly before rebels broke in, intending to arrest or kill the head of state.
Journalists do not specify how and where exactly the Russian military managed to intercept the negotiations of the Turkish soldiers preparing the coup. However, the agency assumes that this could have been done by Russian intelligence officers stationed at the Syrian Khmeimim base near the Turkish border. This intelligence unit, journalists note, is equipped with the most modern systems interception of particularly important data.
Let us recall that the day before the Turkish Armed Forces officially announced that the National Intelligence Organization received information about the preparation of a coup in the country several hours before it began. The leadership of the General Staff was informed of the impending putsch.
It was reported that intelligence learned about the attackers’ plot on July 15 at 16:00 local time (the same as Moscow). In connection with the data received, measures were immediately taken - in particular, the head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, General Hulusi Akar, introduced a ban on the flights of military aircraft in the country's airspace, and the military was ordered to stop the movement of all vehicles.
Prime Minister Binali Yildirim announced the attempted military coup in Turkey last Friday around 23:00 local time. Soon after this, the military announced that they had seized power in the country - shooting was opened on the streets of Ankara, and military helicopters took to the air.
By the morning of Saturday, July 16, the authorities managed to completely suppress the coup, and mass arrests began, including of high-ranking military officers. To date, 7.5 thousand people have been detained on suspicion of involvement in the rebellion. According to the latest government data, 208 people were killed and 1,491 were injured during the unrest.
It is noteworthy that, despite such intelligence awareness, the country's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as follows from his statements, for some reason was not informed about the coup in advance. In an interview with CNN, he said that he was one step away from death.
According to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, 290 people were killed as a result of the rebellion. Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said on Monday, July 18, that as a result of the unrest, according to the latest data, 208 people were killed and 1,491 were injured. According to him, 7.5 thousand suspects of involvement in organizing the coup have been detained. As part of the investigation into the military coup, 103 generals have been arrested. Arrests continue.
Turkish authorities have accused opposition Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen, who lives in the United States, of organizing the rebellion. Gülen denies all accusations. On Saturday, he gave an interview to a group of journalists, including a correspondent for The Guardian, in which he suggested that the Turkish military mutiny may have been "staged" by the Turkish government itself.
After the failed coup d'etat, repressions began in the country: purges are carried out in the army, among employees of the courts and prosecutor's offices, as well as among civil servants. Erdogan warned of a possible return to the country's constitution death penalty, which caused criticism from the European Union.
Putin's personal meeting will take place in the first ten days of August
Earlier on Wednesday it became known that the heads of Russia and Turkey Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet in the first ten days of August in one of Russian cities. However, the exact place and date of the meeting are still being discussed.
“Currently, a meeting between Putin and Erdogan is being prepared and worked out through diplomatic channels. We agreed that this meeting will take place in the first ten days of August, it will be in Russian Federation, but the city and date are still being specified,” said Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov.
On July 17, Putin had a telephone conversation with Erdogan. After this, it was reported that the presidents of the two countries confirmed the agreement reached to hold a personal meeting in the near future. The RIA Novosti agency, citing presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov, reported that Putin and Erdogan could meet in August. The Turkish television channel NTV claimed that the meeting was being agreed upon for the first week of August.
The meeting between Putin and Erdogan will take place against the backdrop of the consequences of the coup attempt in Turkey. It was reported that among the suspects in the mutiny were the pilots who shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber in Syria last fall, which provoked a conflict between Moscow and Ankara. Now both pilots have been arrested, although not in connection with the incident with the Su-24. They are suspected of participating in the rebellion.
After the incident with the Su-24, Putin called the actions of the Turkish pilots a “stab in the back” and accused Turkey itself of aiding terrorists. Relations between the countries began to improve only in June, when the Kremlin reported that the Turkish president had apologized for the downing of the plane. At the same time, Turkey clarified that Erdogan did not apologize to the Kremlin, but only expressed regret about the incident. Also, Ankara initially announced its readiness to compensate for damages for the downed plane, but then denied this information, after which the issue of compensation remained unclear.
A group of Turkish military personnel failed to carry out a coup attempt against Turkish President Erdogan. Parts of the Armed Forces loyal to the president suppressed the riots.
More than 1.5 thousand Turkish military personnel were detained for participation in the coup attempt, five generals and 29 colonels were suspended military service. According to the Turkish prosecutor's office, 265 people died in the conflict. Most of them were military and police.
Units loyal to the Turkish president destroyed two military helicopters used by the coup perpetrators.
Photo report: Military coup in Turkey
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Long tradition
Military coups are not uncommon in Turkey. For many years, the country's army was considered the guarantor of secular values and overthrew the country's leaders who, in the opinion of the military, violated them. In 1997, under pressure from the military, Necmettin Erbakan, the political mentor of the country's current president and founder of the Justice and Development Party, resigned.
Unlike Erbakan, his student Erdogan managed to retain power. The politician worked for many years to resist an attempted coup.
Erdogan weakened the army's influence on the country's politics by removing disloyal officers from its leadership. It is known that Erdogan was always afraid of a military coup and often spoke about it to his associates. It was under Erdogan that the Ergenekon trial took place in Turkey, in which a group of high-ranking Turkish military officers was convicted. The court sentenced them to various terms of imprisonment for plotting a coup in 2003.
The coup attempt on July 15-16 was led by military officials, while Erdogan himself accused the famous Turkish preacher Fethullah Gülen, who lives in exile in the United States, of organizing it. A renowned theologian and intellectual, Gülen is considered Erdogan's main enemy and has many followers among army and police officials. Gülen himself and his supporters denied involvement in the coup and condemned the rebellion.
Some Erdogan supporters said that the United States was behind the coup. However, on this moment this looks unlikely. Washington has no reason to get rid of Erdogan.
Despite criticism from the White House, the Turkish president remains a loyal US ally in Syria, and his ouster could make the situation worse.
Moreover, if the situation in Turkey got out of control, it would create an extra headache for the outgoing American administration of Barack Obama.
The US President expressed his support for the Turkish President, calling on all political parties and the country's forces to unite around President Erdogan. “The President and Secretary of State agreed that all parties must support the democratically elected government of Turkey and refrain from violence and bloodshed,” the White House statement said.
As they emphasize Western media, stability in Turkey as a NATO member country is important to Washington. However, it is unlikely that if Erdogan's opponents had won, Türkiye would cease to be a member of the alliance.
The experience of past military coups shows that “extraordinary authorities”, having carried out a coup, as a rule, keep all previous international agreements of the country in force. By the way, the rebels themselves spoke about this, spreading their statement through the captured TRT television channel.
Split and failure
The failure of the rebels is obviously due to the fact that the top leadership of the Turkish armed forces did not participate in the coup, as happened in previous successful coups. According to Turkish media, the commander of the Turkish Armed Forces, General Hulushi Akar, was blocked by the rebels. He was released in a special operation on Saturday morning and took command of forces loyal to Erdogan.
At the same time, eyewitnesses note that the military and police who supported the rebellion entered into armed confrontation with forces loyal to the president on the streets of Ankara. This indicates a deep split among the military. Such a situation has not developed in Turkey for a long time.
Acting Chief of the Turkish General Staff Umit Dundar named the main organizers of the coup attempt in Turkey, Daily Sabah reports. According to him, the main instigators of the riots were members of the Turkish Air Force. Also, the backbone of the rebels was led by representatives of the gendarmerie and military personnel from armored units.
An informed interlocutor at the Russian Ministry of Defense told Gazeta.Ru that the Turkish government, of course, knew about the impending mutiny, and it is possible that they themselves suggested an “opportune moment” to seize power through an agent network.
“This rebellion can be called controlled, which is why it was suppressed so quickly, covering all the rebels at once in order to clear the ranks of the army from them,” explains the source.
“In the same Air Force there were supporters of Erdogan who simply kept their finger on the pulse and warned the others in time.
The division among the military is undoubtedly deep, but those who support the current Turkish president undoubtedly outnumber those who want to overthrow him.
What, in fact, events showed last night“There were very few high-ranking military officers among those who went against Erdogan.”
As the head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov notes, the failure of the coup occurred because Turkish army“lost the skills” to arrange it. The last successful coups were in the 1980s, when the Turkish army was different. “A generation of military men has passed away who know how to take bridges and telegraphs and how to decapitate the enemy’s governing bodies,” says the expert. Erdogan, who has been in power for more than a decade, has purged the army by promoting people from the police and other intelligence agencies to senior positions. “That close-knit officer corps no longer exists,” notes Pukhov. “In addition, there was a certain “reconciliation” between the military and Erdogan - he released some of them from prison and gave them new ranks, which ensured their loyalty.”
Since Air Force officers were at the head of the mutiny, in Istanbul and Ankara they again remembered the downed Russian Su-24. It is possible that they tried to set Erdogan up in this way in order to create a rift with Russia, which, in general, they succeeded in, says Gazeta.Ru’s interlocutor in the Turkish capital.
This version, after the failed putsch, according to him, is now being actively discussed in society. A source in the Russian Ministry of Defense also does not rule out such a turn of events.
Ankara Mayor Melih Gokcek, according to Cumhuriyet, said on Saturday that the pilot who shot down the Russian Su-24 took part in an attempted coup in Turkey.
Support for Key Leaders
Almost all leaders of key Western countries have declared support for the “democratic path” in Turkey. European Council President Donald Tusk said the EU "fully supports Turkey's democratic government." German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke in a similar vein.
Russia was also closely monitoring the situation. The country's President Vladimir Putin received information from intelligence services and diplomats about what was happening, his press secretary Dmitry Peskov, by the way, a Turkologist by training, told reporters.
Answering questions from journalists, Peskov said that Moscow would consider Erdogan’s request for asylum, if any.
Most likely, Erdogan would not seek asylum in the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, such a statement could be an indirect signal of support for Erdogan.
It is worth noting that the coup attempt was made at a time when Turkey and Russia came to reconciliation after a seven-month conflict over the downing of a Su-24 by the Turkish authorities on the border with Syria. At the moment, Moscow also does not benefit from the overthrow of Erdogan. In addition, the Kremlin has publicly stated that it supports the legitimate governments of other states and opposes interference in their internal affairs.
In Syria, supporters of President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Moscow, on the contrary, supported the coup attempt, as they consider Erdogan the main culprit of the external invasion of their country.
A failed coup attempt will not be without consequences. According to experts, this will force Erdogan to quickly try to achieve his goal: to change the country's constitution in order to turn Turkey into a presidential republic. For now, the country is de jure a parliamentary republic, and all power belongs to Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, who is Erdogan’s loyal protege.
The coup attempt could also give Erdogan some leverage to tighten the screws. Dissatisfaction with his policies has long been brewing in Turkey.
Taking advantage of the situation, Erdogan can also begin a new purge in the army, ridding it of disloyal officers. He has already stated that the measures will be tough. “These actions are considered a betrayal, and they will pay heavily for it,” the Turkish president promised.
However, Erdogan will have to act carefully: Turkish society is split, and a new coup could lead, if not to a change of power, then to a protracted civil conflict.
Russian intelligence provided Ankara with intercepted information about the preparation of a military coup, the Iranian Fars agency reported, citing Arab media. Among the transmitted data allegedly was information about the approach of helicopters to the hotel where Erdogan was staying
Police headquarters in Ankara (Photo: Reuters/Pixstream)
The Russian army warned the Turkish National Intelligence Organization about the preparation of a military coup. The Iranian Fars agency writes about this, citing unnamed Arab media, which, in turn, quote diplomatic sources in Ankara.
According to diplomats, representatives Russian army intercepted coded radiograms and particularly important information exchanged between the military. They testified to the preparation of a coup d'etat.
Sources noted that among those intercepted was information that several helicopters were heading to a hotel in Marmaris, where Erdogan was staying before the coup. Al Jazeera previously reported that the Turkish president managed to leave the hotel half an hour before the putschists arrived there, planning to arrest or kill him.
The publication’s interlocutors were unable to say which Russian station managed to intercept the data exchange. At the same time, diplomats clarified that the reconnaissance unit of the Russian army is deployed at the Syrian Khmeimim base, where the aircraft taking part in the operation against the Islamists are located. As sources indicated, the unit is equipped with modern systems for intercepting particularly important data.
The agency recalled that a week before the coup, Russia and Turkey began to normalize relations, which worsened after the incident with the downing of the Su-24. The turning point occurred after Erdogan sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to diplomats, the change foreign policy Turkey became the reason that “several foreign countries staged provocations and promised support to the army in organizing a coup.” The interlocutors admitted that “these changes saved Erdogan,” since it is unclear whether the Russian side would have handed over intelligence information otherwise.
The Turkish Armed Forces reported that reconnaissance in the country was carried out several hours before it began. This happened on July 15 at about 16:00 local time (the same as Moscow). The military managed to inform the leadership of the General Staff about this,
Earlier, the Al Jazeera television channel, citing correspondence from the rebels, reported that local time, however, due to some emergency, they tried to carry out the plan almost 6 hours earlier - at 21:30.
Vladimir Putin saved Tayyip Erdogan from a coup.
The Turkish authorities managed to quickly suppress the rebellion because they were ready for it. According to the Iranian Fars agency, Russian intelligence, which has a lot of electronic interception equipment in the Middle East, as well as through its other channels, uncovered a conspiracy against Erdogan. The Russians shared this information with the President of Turkey, which saved him.
And the warming recently noticed between countries may be related to this. It is unlikely that Erdogan was warned about the coup half an hour before it began. No, it happened much earlier. Erdogan, having received the information, undoubtedly had to check it, and, one can assume, the check confirmed everything. Then he and his devoted people began to prepare lists of conspirators in order to quietly get rid of these people (not physically, of course, but through dismissals, suspensions, transfers to another job).
That's just not all loyal people They turned out to be betrayed; it was not for nothing that a military adviser to the Turkish president was among the arrested conspirators. So the conspirators found out that Erdogan knew everything, and went for broke. Erdogan was ready for such a turn, being on alert. Half an hour before the attack, the hotel where the president was staying in Marmaris was evacuated and flown out by plane.
As a result, there were more people loyal to Erdogan, and his supporters (or opponents of the coup, but in this situation they are the same thing) took to the streets en masse, and the coup was suppressed within one night.
The events that took place revealed another secret. It turns out that Türkiye did not intend to shoot down the Russian plane. Yes, she didn’t like the fact that Russian pilots bombed Assad’s opponents and sometimes flew into Turkish airspace in the process, but the Turkish fighter pilots made the decision to shoot down the Russian plane on their own, and all because they were part of the organization of the main conspirator Gülen, and their goal was to quarrel Ankara with Moscow. Why then did Erdogan stand his ground so strongly, saying that we won’t apologize and, in general, we did everything right? Well, he couldn’t give up, his fellow citizens wouldn’t understand, that’s the mentality there. Now everything has become known, since both pilots were arrested for participating in the coup attempt and suddenly turned from heroes into outcasts (in the eyes of the authorities, at least).
