Tennis is a very common discipline in the field of sports forecasting and betting. Major tournaments in this sport are held with enviable regularity. Matches from less prestigious competitions fill bookmakers' lines all year round. The abundant availability of tennis match predictions, combined with open statistics, allows forecasters to use a range of gaming strategies.
Double bet on the match
The fact that tennis is presented in the form of singles allows for maximum qualitative analysis player statistics, as well as their game form. In addition, when making a forecast, it is necessary to take into account the factors of the court surface and the tournament motivation of the match participants. The obtained data, after analysis, in combination, can provide the player with the opportunity to make a double bet on one match, which, with the right approach and choice of odds, can be a win-win.
As an example of this strategy, we can consider a match between representatives of the men's tour. Tennis players who have a powerful first serve and rely on this component in their game often become participants in matches for which bookmakers give an inflated total. When such players meet in person, the odds for the main outcome of the match are set approximately equal, and the predicted number of games in the match reaches 24 or 24.5 (for a three-set match format).
For consideration let's take an example match between Sam Querrey and John Isner. Both Americans have cannon serves and are not particularly good at returning. In a head-to-head confrontation between these tennis players on fast surfaces, you can expect a large number of games and the presence of tiebreakers. Before the start of the match, bookmakers offer the total number of games (24.5) more for a quote of 1.80. Predicting the outcome of this event with a conditional bet of $100, we proceed to analysis latest results tennis players and the history of personal confrontations. Also, do not forget about studying tournament motivation for each tennis player.
Let's assume that the analytical work carried out gave us reason to assign the role of favorite in the match to Isner. If there are equal odds on the outcome before the start of the match, the odds on the outcome to win John's match in two sets will be approximately 2.65. We place a bet of $60 on this outcome.
- Total games in the match (24.5) more - 1.8 x 100 = $180 (possible winnings)
- Isner wins in sets 2:0 - 2.65 x 60 = $159 (possible winnings)
If Isner beats Querrey in two sets (7:6, 7:5), both bets will be played and the net profit will be $139. If only one of the predictions plays out, the payout will at least cover the bet amounts or give the bank an increase of $20.
An example of this strategy can be varied in different directions, taking into account the characteristics of court surfaces and the capabilities of the tennis players encountered.
20.11.2017
If outcome bets are the most popular among single bets, then here bets on double outcome especially in demand in express bets, since they increase the likelihood of passage and reduce risks. It is worth noting that, for example, it is impossible to place such bets on tennis or volleyball matches, since there cannot be a draw. It's a completely different matter if it's a football or hockey event.
Apply knowledge in practice
1X, X2, 12 in double outcome
Let's consider specific example. World Cup 2018 qualifying match. Türkiye-Iceland. The bookmaker offers three double outcome options: 1X, X2, 12. So, if a player makes a 1X bet, then it turns out to be winning if Türkiye will win or draw the match. If the match ends in favor of the guests, the bet will be lost. The essence of the X2 bet is absolutely similar. Only in this case will it be winning if Iceland wins or the match ends in a draw. If the home team wins, the bet will lose.
If the player makes a bet of 12, then the bet will go through if the final whistle records the victory of one of the teams. If the match ends in a draw, the bet will lose.
Considering that double outcome bets essentially provide double chance, professional players they very often use the strategy of betting on an outsider. Despite the fact that patency, as a rule, does not exceed 30%, thanks to high odds, the player still ends up with an advantage at a distance.
Thus, speaking about the advantages of betting on a double outcome, it is mainly worth saying that the probability of passing is much higher than betting on the outcome. There is an opportunity to protect yourself from loss of funds. As for the main disadvantage, it is, of course, comparatively low odds. That is why bets on double outcomes most often appear in express forecasts. Also, as noted above, such bets are not suitable for all sports, and also require detailed analysis to identify an outsider.
Double outcome betting is very favorable for the bettor. In theory, each of the three outcomes of a football match can end in a victory for one of the teams or a draw, and each of them corresponds to a 33.3% probability. What bettor would refuse a bet in which his chances were increased to 66.6%? Therefore, this gaming strategy is quite popular among bettors.
About probability
In fact, we are often not talking about any 66.6%. If Chelsea host Huddersfield, 9 out of 10 times they will win. So a bet like X2 will almost certainly lose here. This will reflect the coefficient for the event - it will be no less than five. Bet on 1X for Chelsea not interesting from a profit point of view. The more the chances of the competing teams are equalized, the lower the odds for a double outcome become. For equal teams, all three outcomes 1X, 12 and X2 are assessed by the bookmaker with odds of the type 1.3 – 1.5.
Is this a double chance?
Let's say you're interested in a meeting Atlético Madrid - Villarreal. The bookmaker gives odds of 1.9 for a home win, and 4.0 for a draw. The defeat of Madrid does not interest us here, so we will not take it into account. For good measure, let’s take a bet of the notorious hundred dollars. You have decided to distribute the chances. This can be done by simple formulas which are given below:
Bet on win = odds on draw X total amount bets / (odds for a draw + odds for a win)
We calculate using the formula:
Bet to win = 4.0 X 100 / (4.0+1.9) = $67.8
The value has been rounded. We have a bet size for Atlético to win.
Now we simply subtract the size of the bet on Madrid’s victory from the total bankroll:
100 – 67.8 = 32.2 dollars
This is how much money we will bet on a draw.
Let's imagine that Atlético wins, as befits a favorite. In this case, you need to multiply the amount of the bet on the victory of this team by the coefficient, which ultimately gives the following result:
1.9 x 67.8 = $128.82, so a profit of $28.82
If there is a draw, then we multiply 4.0 by 32.2 dollars and get 128.8 and a profit of 28.8 dollars, which is almost identical to the first indicator.
What's all this for? And to the fact that, according to the classics, the odds for a double outcome 1X will be such that the player’s profit is lower than in the case when he bets on each individual outcome. For example, this would be a coefficient of 1.21. That is, the winning amount on a 1X double outcome bet on Atlético will be 1.21 x 100 = 121, that is, $21 in profit, which is less than in the case of a bet on each individual outcome. Of course, the odds may be different, but it will still be below the standard ordinary.
Why? Because the bookmaker risks more if the bet is double, because the bettor’s chances increase sharply. The bookmaker is insured, but what about the bettor?
Or is it insurance?
In other words, double bets offer you a dilemma. Either you play with lower chances with one outcome, or with higher chances you play with two. But the profit in the second case will be at least no more, and actually less.
For a player for whom not losing money is the number one goal, and winning is whatever happens, betting on a double outcome - the most natural insurance. Especially if the recognized hegemon of the national championship plays the role of the home team. In this case, the probability that a bet on a double outcome 1X will win is close to one hundred percent. The bettor plays it safe, and the bookmaker does the same, reducing the odds to almost one. If the odds for the favorite to win are in the range of 1.1 -1.2, then a 1X bet can be valued at a ridiculous odds like 1.02. Would a bettor be interested in this? A rhetorical question.
Double bet on the underdog
Now that we have understood the purpose of the double chance strategy, let's look at how it can best be applied to someone who still wants to try out this tempting tactic. Bets like 1X are not very profitable in terms of profit, but bets on the fact that the outsider will not lose look much more attractive. Of course, we are not talking about a meeting of teams from different poles, for example, Real Madrid and Las Palmas.
The underdog could be London's Arsenal when they travel to Old Trafford to face Manchester United. For example, in the 2017/18 season, the victory of the Gunners over the Mancunians at the latter’s home stadium is estimated by bookmakers at odds of 7.0-8.0, and a draw - about 5.0. But the outcome of X2, that is, the fact that the Londoners will not lose, has a odds of 3.0.
Arsenal have always played poorly against the Red Devils away, but in Lately the situation changed for the better for the gunners. In the last four meetings at home, the Mancunians won only one match, lost one and drew two. Arsenal's chances don't look so bad anymore, the coefficient of 3.0 should only add confidence. Here the X2 bet looks somewhat more attractive than the single bet on a draw or victory for the Gunners.
There will be no draw
This is probably the most difficult of the three possibilities to predict. Although from the point of view of probability the situation here is the same as with the other two outcomes, a draw quite often resolves a stubborn match between two teams charged with fighting. But high coefficient The bookmaker places a bet of 12 just when the strengths of the teams are approximately equal and the probability of a draw is higher.
In other words, you can play using any strategy, but before using it it is very important to calculate everything from a mathematical point of view. Unfortunately, For successful game and making a profit you will have to parse formulas and deal with big amount numbers You may not have it, but then take bets solely for the sake of pleasure.
3.6666666666667
Many players place bets exclusively on a victory or draw of a particular team and do not particularly consider the bookmaker’s line. However, in the future, players have a need to hedge their bets and they come across this type of bet as “double chance” or, in other words, “double outcome”. Let's look at what this type of bet is and give an example.
What is double chance in betting?
Double chance in betting - this is a bet in a bookmaker's office in which the player must choose two out of three possible outcomes(win, draw, loss). A bet on a double outcome is valid only for regular time (in football 90 minutes, in hockey 60). Thus, overtime or extra time are not included in these types of bets. It is logical that double chance bets can only be placed in those sports where 3 outcomes are possible. For example, such bets are possible in hockey and football, but are not available in basketball or tennis.
Example of a double chance bet
Register and get a bonusMatch "Real Madrid - Bayern". In the bookmaker's line, a double chance bet on a football match will look like this:
Double chance (outcome) designations:
- 1X– victory of the first team or a draw (based on the example above, Real Madrid must not lose the match).
- 12 – victory of one of the teams (based on the example above, the match should not be a draw, i.e. Bayern or Real Madrid should win).
- X2– a draw or victory for the second team (based on the example above, Bayern must not lose the match).
Thus, if you place a bet on a double chance 1X - 1000 rubles, if the team from Madrid does not lose, the player will receive 1400 rubles back from the bookmaker. Having placed a bet on a double outcome of 12 -1000 rubles and Real or Bayern wins, the player will receive 1280 rubles. If the player chooses to bet on a double chance of 2X - 1000 rubles and Bayern does not lose, then the bookmaker will pay the player 1720 rubles for such a bet.
A bet on a double outcome is considered safe and when players have doubts about the outcome of a match in football or hockey, many players prefer to choose a double chance, since the probability of winning the bet increases.
Sports betting is a constant risk. Do you place a bet but can't make money? The fact is that you are taking too much risk, and unjustifiably. That is why it will not be superfluous to familiarize yourself with strategies with minimal risk loss of capital. By the way, some of them, with the right approach, are guaranteed to bring profit and allow you to gain profit, even if you are currently in the red.
Bookmakers' odds for the same outcomes differ. If you identify even a minimal difference, you can get a win with a 100% guarantee. Regardless of the outcome of the event, you will be in the black.
To understand the essence of the method, consider a simple example. For the win of player 1, the bookmaker gives a coefficient of 1.5, and for the win of player 2, the bookmaker "Betcity" set a coefficient of 5.0. He allocates 1000 rubles for the match. We bet 750 rubles on the first athlete and 250 on the second.
If player 1 wins, the payout is 1125 rubles, and if player 2, the winnings will be 1250 rubles. Net profit– 125 or 250 rubles. Moreover, it doesn’t matter how the fight ends - the main thing is that it ends.
Opportunities for such bets arise due to the fact that all bookmakers are not able to provide the same quotes, especially at the same time. You need to make money from this. The main thing is to place bets in different offices.
Underdog wins in the quarter
The strategy is designed for basketball. It is based on statistical indicators. The fact is that 98% of basketball matches do not end with the favorite winning all quarters. Statistics are based on observations, because no one has conducted a detailed study, but this is not a reason to refuse possible earnings.
We find a Live match that has just started. We bet on the underdog to win in the first quarter. If the bet fails, we find another game. In case of defeat, he places a similar bet in the second quarter, but increases the amount of the initial bet. And so on until we win.
For example, if you bet 100 rubles and lost it, then bet not 200, but a little more. So that when we place a bet, we not only return the lost hundred, but also remain in the black.
There are very few basketball matches in which the favorite wins all periods - you can check this yourself by opening the results game day almost any tournament. To increase your chances of success, filter out events where the difference in odds is too large.
The strategy is easily modified. For example, bet not on the outsider, but on the favorite. You can bet on total or even/odd. Again, there is a minimum number of matches where the total would be more or only even in all quarters. Take advantage of it!)
Dogon
The idea is that you are betting on a certain outcome. If the forecast turns out to be wrong, place a bet, doubling or even tripling the amount (depending on the odds).
The main thing is to choose the right fights and outcomes with high chances of success. Don't bet on anything. Consider every option, because you are risking your own money. Unfortunately, in the event of a prolonged black streak, from which even professionals are not immune, there is a risk of losing the entire game bank, so stock up on an amount that is enough for 10-12 transactions. You can find out more about what catch-up is.
Forks
The essence of the strategy is that you should find the most profitable odds for each outcome of one event. By correctly distributing the allotted amount for the bet, regardless of the outcome of the game, you will remain in the black.
The difficulty lies in finding forks, although there are special programs for this. You can.
The profit from one arbitrage situation is 1-3%, sometimes more, but it is unlikely that you will be able to regularly find forks with higher profitability. This win-win strategy It is advisable to use if you have a large bank. Then 1-3% seems to be not enough, but if it is 1-3% of a bank of 100 thousand rubles, then it’s not bad at all.
Example of a fork strategy football match. Barcelona and Real Madrid are playing. In BC "Leon" odds. on P1 is 2.3, in the “Betting League” on a draw – 3.3, and the odds. on P2 in “1xBet” is 3.97.
For bets, for example, we allocate 1000 rubles. On P1 we put 439.31 with odds. 2.3, for a draw – 306.18 per bet. 3.3 and 254.51 on P2 with coefficient. 3.97. The results will be as follows:
- if Barcelona wins (P1): 439.31 x 2.3 = 1010.41 rubles;
- if there is a draw (X): 306.18 x 3.3 = 1010.39 rubles;
- in case of Real Madrid winning (W2): 254.51 x 3.97 = 1010.40 rubles.
No matter how El Clasico ends, our profit will be a little more than 10 rubles. Pennies, but if as rates increase, income also increases.
Everything is so simple only in theory. The strategy has many nuances, pitfalls and features, so be sure to read the most detailed material about sure bets at this link.
First goal with foot
Football strategy involves betting that the first goal will be scored with a kick. In 75% of matches, the first goal is scored with the foot, and not with the head, chest or other part of the body.
