StrategyValue betting is probably the only strategy that 100% guarantees profit over the long haul. The only difficulty is that, in essence, it is not a strategy in its pure form.
What is value, or the Value betting strategy
In simple terms, Value betting is what professional bettors do. They look for inflated odds in the line and bet exclusively on them.
Inflated odds, or value (from value), appear on the line due to underestimation or overestimation of a particular team by bookmakers. Distortions in the line are inevitable for a number of reasons:
- A bookmaker analyst who is responsible for a large number of championships at once cannot be a 100% expert in each of them.
- News from teams about injuries, transfers, and changes in starting lineups constantly appears.
Example. In the first rounds of the 2018-2019 RPL season, bookmakers overestimated the strength of CSKA, not taking into account that Goncharenko, in fact, was left with only young players after the departure of Golovin, Vitinho, Ignashevich, Berezutskikh, Wernbloom, Natkho, Musa. As a result, one could bet on the fact that their opponents would not lose in the 1st round at an inflated odds of 2.24.
The “fair” odds in this case were 1.80 and you can see that closer to the match the 1X odds dropped to 1.80.
How pros find value using the Value betting strategy
How can you determine which ratio is fair and which is too high? This only comes with experience. An experienced forecaster who has been following a particular championship for a long time easily notices an inflated odds on a line.
Example. This is a forecast from one Belarusian privateer who has been following local football for a long time. As you can see, he confidently writes that the line should be equal (that is, the odds for P1 and P2 should be about 2.50 - 2.60).
Now let's see how the line behaved closer to the match. The odds for the guests actually dropped to 2.60.
How to bet yourself using the Value betting strategy
If you have not yet become a pro, then to find values you can resort to 3 proven methods:
- Follow the forecasts of an experienced forecaster.
It is important that the forecaster specializes in certain championships, for example, has an excellent understanding only of Russian football. Then he will almost accurately find value in the Russian leagues, and you will be able to learn a lot from his forecasts: news from the camp of the teams, what information he pays attention to. After 3-4 months, you yourself will begin to roughly understand what a fair odds should be in the next match.
- Use odds monitoring services.
In bets using the Value betting strategy great importance has efficiency. Inflated odds tend to fall quickly after cappers notice them and start betting. But not all bookmakers react promptly; often bookmakers such as Betcity, "" or bwin change odds with a delay.
Example. As you can see in the picture, most bookmakers have already lowered the inflated odds to 1.62 - 1.65. At the same time, “1xBet” and “Betcity” continue to give 1.80 – 1.84.
You can track changes in odds manually using free services bmbets.com, oddsportal.com or paid ones, for example, oddstorm.com or any surebets scanner.
- Compare odds with local bookmakers.
A very labor-intensive (since you have to manually view several sites) method, but 100% proven to be effective.
It is no secret that local bookmakers know the situation in local championships much better and, accordingly, set odds more accurately than large European bookmakers.
Example. We see that the odds for H2(0) in the Belarusian bookmaker for the local championship are 1.80, while in other bookmakers, for example, in Betcity, they give odds for H2(0). 2.08. Accordingly, 2.08 is a clear value.
Why the Value betting strategy is profitable
It's all about math and distance. In theory, the average player, playing at “fair odds” over a long distance, will mark time, plus or minus, without losing or winning anything.
But in practice, bookmakers have a margin (reaching up to 10% for some bookmakers), and therefore, over the long term, the player will go into the red when playing at “fair odds.” And this minus will be approximately equal to the bookmaker’s margin: 2-10%.
Now imagine that you play according to the Value betting strategy and every time you bet on value with odds. 2.0 instead of the fair 1.75. Those. your profit at a distance will be approximately 14% higher, which means that even with an extortionate margin of 10% at a distance you can expect a profit.
Value betting: how to play and how to find a value bet in bookmaker odds, we will conduct 2 experiments, look through a scanner and manually.
Value bets or value bets how to play correctly
The Value betting system is a strategy that offers users bets on undervalued events.
Value bets (Value bets) are bets on undervalued events offered by bookmakers. That is, where the BC coefficient is higher than the real one.
To fully understand the nature of this strategy, let’s delve a little into probability theory.
Question: Why do most players lose their money to bookmakers?
Answer: Because they place a bet on the odds offered by the bookmaker, without thinking about statistics and long-term probability.
Unclear? I’ll explain with an example, bookmakers won’t tell you about this: let’s say you always bet 200 rubles on odds of 1.6. This means that the bookmaker defines the probability of these events as 100/1.6 = 62.5%.
Which in turn suggests that, according to statistics, in the long term you will not notice, you will lose in 37.5% of cases. And this nullifies all the money won before.
Total expected value your average profit over time will be:
Profit = P*(K-1)*V – (1-P)*V
- P is the probability of the event (value from 0 to 1);
- K - coefficient from the bookmaker's office;
- V is the money you bet.
Let's count on real numbers from the example above
Profit = 0.625* (1.6 – 1)*200 – (1-0.625)*200 = 75 – 75 = 0
Bad news? There are even worse things. Important nuance: the bookmaker has a margin (which means the default % probability is greater than the real one, and the odds are less), which automatically reduces the profit to a figure less than 0. I think you understand what this means.
How to be?
Now let’s return to the definition of a bet with an advantage or value bet.
Value betting is a strategy where you bet on undervalued odds with an advantage over the bookmaker. That is, the probability set by the bookmaker, in your opinion, is not the real probability of the outcome.
Example: match between Argentina and Chile, the bookmaker puts odds of 1.6 on Argentina's victory, which means the probability of this event is 62.5%, and you think that the probability is 80%, which means the real odds should be 100/80 = 1.25
How do you know if this is a value bet? The condition must be met (value betting formula):
- K is the bookmaker's odds
- P is your probability of a positive outcome.
Let's do the calculation and substitute the data from the example:
1,6 * 0,8 = 1,28 > 1
1.28 - 1 = 0.28. This means that if you bet on such events, in the long run, despite the losses, your profit will be 28% of each bet.
(Below you can find a calculator so you don’t have to do all this manually)
Let's substitute the data into a formula reflecting the mathematical expectation of the average profit and imagine that the player will make 100 bets
Profit = 100 bets * 0.8 * (1.6-1) * 200 rub – 100 bets * (1-0.8) * 200 rub = 9600 – 4000 = 5600 rubles
Q.E.D
How much to bet
To choose the optimal bet amount depending on the risk and underestimation of the outcome, the strategy is often used. It allows you to calculate what percentage of the bank you can bet on the current bet.
How to find value bets
All this is great, but how to find value bets on football, hockey and other sports where the value of the bet is determined by inflated odds.
Here are 3 possible ways
Find overvalued betting odds in the line yourself
If you are very good at specific form sport and consider yourself a true expert, capable of assessing all the factors influencing the outcome of an event, then the flag is in your hands. But I wildly doubt that your expert knowledge will be stronger than that of a team of experts from the bookmaker who deal with this professionally.
Using the value betting scanner, also known as the value betting service
The principle of their operation is that they scan the odds for a specific event from a large number of bookmakers and calculate the arithmetic average. Then they compare it with each coefficient separately, which is issued by the offices.
According to the assumption, the average value is the most exact value, because in fact all the experts from all the scanned bookmakers worked on it.
We conclude that the value that differs more from the average is an underestimated event.
Where can I find edge betting scanner sites? Many of the fork services provide this opportunity, for example Surebet.
Search for value bets among arbs.
The fork is the source. The very existence of a fork means that one of the events is underestimated. A fork is essentially an initiator of a value bet. Read more, you may learn a lot of new things for yourself.
If the service also provides live sure bets, then here are the value bets in live. Their main disadvantage is the lack of time for a thorough analysis.
Let's go back... after analyzing the odds of other companies, you can easily guess which event is more underestimated.
Let's try to do all this in the field using real odds.
Value betting in practice. 2 Cases
Case 1. Search for surebets using a scanner
Let's take a real bet in the USA-Canada hockey match
1/1,5+1/3,32 = 0,9678 < 1, значит вилка есть
Now let’s try to determine which odds are overrated by analyzing other bookmakers
Let's calculate the average here and there:
(1,47+1,4+1,43+1,4+1,46+1,42+1,42+1,45) / 8 = 1,43
(2,82+3,0+2,9+2,85+2,94+2,85+2,85+2,78) / 8 = 2,87
Live broadcast, anything is possible, so we get both outcomes underestimated
- 1,43 < 1,5 на 1,5-1,43 = 0,07 это 3,27%
- 2,87 < 3,32 на 3,32-2,87 = 0,45 это 4,72%
and you can bet on anything, but the outcome Under(4,5) aka TM(4.5) is more undervalued, so we bet on it.
Case 2. Manual search
Case study of how you can manually try to determine the value bet
As an example, let's take the English Premier League match between Newcastle and Tottenham. Let's assume that even before the start of the match, you conducted a deep analysis and realized that the bookmaker had set the odds with a bias. Now you need to check if you are right.
To do this, you need to use the formula that was given earlier:
The odds for the home team to win are 4.6. If you believe the statistics of past matches, Newcastle usually wins 1 match out of 4. This means that, based on probability theory, the home team wins 25% of matches.
If we substitute our data into the formula, we get: 4.6 * 0.25 = 1.15. If the result more than one, then this bet will be profitable.
As you can see from the example above, our bet worked. However, our system itself is quite dubious. The Value bet strategy is good over the long haul. You can also use it in symbiosis with the “” strategy. The main thing is that the final result of the calculation according to the formula must be greater than one.
Value bet calculator
For convenience, below is the Value betting calculator. online service— a program where you can calculate the profitability of a bet.
- field - enter the odds that the bookmaker gives for the event
- field - enter your personal probability estimate as a percentage
Conclusions. Is it beneficial to use valueng? Review.
According to probability theory YES, but:
- You need a really large number of bets for the statistics to do their job (not 10, not 20, or even 100, but more). Are you ready for this?
- Are you sure that the bets you will use will actually be value ones?
But arguments can also be made in defense:
- Compared to forks, you don't have to take risks and place a bunch of bets on all the shoulders at the same time.
- Your account will not be blocked, since your behavior will be as similar as possible to the behavior of an ordinary player.
- The profit is greater than in sure bets.
Value betting - “Value Betting” strategy
Value betting strategy or how to find value bets (value bets)
This is one of the most popular and interesting strategies for playing in bookmakers. The essence of this strategy is to bet on events that are underestimated by bookmakers. Thus, the player’s income will depend entirely on his knowledge in the field of sports and betting.
Introduction to "Value - betting".
In addition to the term “value bets,” you may come across the term “value bets,” which mean the same thing - overvalued bets on those outcomes for which the player considers the odds to be overvalued or inflated.
It often happens that bookmakers incorrectly assess the likelihood of certain events occurring. As a result, the odds on the bookmaker's line may not reflect real chances the occurrence of one outcome or another. This may be caused by a bookmaker’s error, or, for example, by inadequate loading, when the majority of players unreasonably bet (“load”) on one or another outcome. Problem b The goal is precisely to find such outcomes and correctly correlate them with one’s own assessment of their occurrence.
However, here it is important to have reliable information about the state of the teams (opponents), to be able to analyze it, so that your bet does not turn out to be to a greater extent random (at random). It is also important to have up-to-date information, since bookmakers react very quickly to various changes. For example, as soon as information appears that Messi will not take part in the next match of the Argentina national team, the bookmaker odds will almost immediately undergo significant changes. Most likely, the odds for winning “albiceleste” will increase (that is, the chances of winning will decrease). But a player who does not have operational information may still think that the Argentina team, led by Lionel Messi, should easily beat the average opponent. There is also an increased odds, for example, for Argentina to win 1.50, which someone who does not have real operational information may mistakenly count as a value bet.
“Value betting” gives a wide field for the player’s activities, allows you to play both on outcomes and totals (including individual ones), on handicaps (plus and minus), and bet on favorites and outsiders. Everything here will depend on your ability to find value bets and your objectivity in assessing the outcomes. In this matter, experience and deep current knowledge in the field of sports are very important. Therefore, to begin with, you can train on small amounts of bets. As confidence, skills, and with them positive results appear, you can raise the stakes.
At first you can play just a fixed flat, but then with experience, depending on the situation, you can raise or lower the bets.
Another feature, or rather a problem for beginners in the search for value bets, is the fear of large odds. Many novice players are accustomed to taking P1 (or P2) against Real Madrid and Barcelona, but do not accept the possibility that the nominal underdogs may in fact turn out to be not so weak. If they don’t win, then, for example, strong middle peasants can score a draw, or score a goal against the coolest top clubs, which, moreover, may experience periods of recession. Therefore, it is important to restructure yourself psychologically and be ready to play against the favorites, sometimes at high odds.
One more thing, “value betting” is a strategy not designed for immediate winnings. You can make money using this strategy only over a distance, sometimes significant - a month, six months, a year. Therefore, you need to be mentally prepared to go a long way before joining the field and understanding the essence of “value betting.”
How to apply the strategy Value Betting.
Question: Why do most players lose money to the bookmaker?
Answer: Because they bet on the odds offered by bookmakers, without thinking about the statistics and the probability of the outcome in the long term.
First, let’s look at the essence of bookmaker odds and what they generally mean. In fact, they mean the probability of events occurring according to the bookmaker's office. For example, you will constantly bet 300 rubles on odds P1 with odds of 1.25. Moreover, you bet the same amount of 300 rubles. The probability of this bet passing, according to the bookmaker, will be: 100\1.25 = 80.00%.
As a result, 20.00% of your bets will not go through in the long run. This means that if you just play mindlessly, you will ultimately not be able to make a profit.
Profit is determined by the formula:
P - probability of an event (value from 0 to 1, If the probability of an event occurring is 80%, then P=0.8);
K - coefficient from the bookmaker;
V - the money you bet.
Let's calculate using real numbers from the example above
Profit = 0.8* (1.25 – 1)* 3 00 – (1-0,8)*300 = 60 – 60 = 0
But it won’t even be possible to break even, since the bookmaker sets a margin of several percent in the bookmaker’s odds. As a result, you will end up losing money.
The main formula for determining value bets
To apply the strategy, you need to use the simplest formula:
K x P > 1,
- where K - the odds of the outcome that you will take from the bookmaker's line,
—P— the probability of an outcome according to the player.
The probability in this formula ranges from 0 to 1. So if a player estimates the probability of an event occurring at 80%, then P = 0.8.
If in the end the product is higher than one, it means the outcome of this event is underestimated by bookmakers and you can play this outcome.
Thus, you take undervalued outcomes with inflated odds, which should give you a plus over a long distance. Naturally, the player must understand the events in which he plays and adequately evaluate them.
Example.
In the Barcelona - Atletico Madrid match, you are considering a bet on “both will score”, the odds of which in the bookmaker’s line are 1.80. And in your opinion, the probability of such an event occurring is 70%. We multiply the coefficient by the probability and get: 1.8 x 0.7 = 1.26.,
which in turn is greater than one. Therefore, it makes sense to make such a bet.
1.26 - 1 = 0.26. This means that if you bet on such events, then in the long run, despite the losses, your profit will be 26% of each bet.
Let's use the formula for calculating profit that we discussed earlier.
Profit = P*(K-1)*V - (1-P)*V
Let's substitute the data into a formula reflecting the mathematical expectation of the average profit and imagine that the player makes 100 bets of 200 rubles each.
Profit = 100 bets * 0.7 * (1.8-1) * 200 rub – 100 bets * (1-0.7) * 200 rub = 112,00 – 6,000 = 52,00 rubles
Example. The odds for Inter to win the match with Fiorentina are 1.55. You estimate the probability of victory to be 60%. We apply our formula and get: 1.55 x 0.6 = 0.93. The value turned out to be less than one, so it’s not worth making such a bet. Perhaps now the bet will win, but in the long run you will be in the red if you constantly play at such bets.
So, let’s repeat the main points of using the strategy Value Betting:
- carefully select the match, select the desired event, look at the odds;
- We determine the probability of an event based on analysis and analytics based on the information you have about the teams;
- apply the formula ( K x P > 1), multiply the bookmaker's odds by the probability.
We compare the result obtained with one; if it is greater than one, then this event is underestimated and, by betting on it, we will have an advantage over the line.
How much to bet using the Value-betting strategy
An experienced player usually varies the bet size from 1 to 5% depending on his own confidence in the bet. But beginners are advised not to change the bet percentage and play all the time with the same percentage of the game bank (1-2 percent). Also, when calculating the bet amount, use strategies - the Kelly criterion, which allows you to calculate what percentage of the bank to bet on a particular value bet.
How to find value bets (value bets)
This is probably one of the main questions asked not only by novice players, but also by many experienced players. And how to distinguish a value bet from ordinary “normal” bets, at which you will not be able to make a profit over the course?
As a result of many years of gaming experience, cappers accumulate certain criteria by which they find bets with an advantage.
You need, no matter how trivial it may sound, to become an expert in the area where you will bet. Start with a non-top championship (for example, football), select several teams, follow their performances, study statistics, rosters, news. In general, you need to get as close as possible to the information that bookmakers have. Why is it recommended to choose a non-top championship? Because than more famous team, the more information the bookmaker has about it. In the top championships of England, Spain, Italy, Germany, there are actually not so many value bets compared, for example, to the second and third strongest divisions of these championships. Bookmakers skim off the cream of the crop from matches of popular clubs such as Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester United, etc. In lower championships, bookmakers may not have all or even inaccurate information, and this is where bookmaker errors, expressed in irrational terms, are possible set odds that unrealistically reflect the capabilities and chances of teams. This is where you should take advantage of it.
Let's note one more important fact. Bookmakers have a large amount of information: physical and psychological condition players, pre-match situation, statistics, weather conditions, etc. However, such an assessment is subjective, because this is why the odds in different offices can differ significantly. Therefore, in a particular case, your assessment may turn out to be more objective compared to the bookmaker’s assessment.
If, after analyzing the upcoming match, you think that the odds for a certain event are too high by the bookmaker, then you should bet on this outcome.
IN We need to learn how to analyze the line and odds. You cannot play on just one simple outcome (1, x, 2). Be more flexible and variable in your analytics. Consider various options bets: simple outcomes, handicaps, total goals, individual totals commands And compare the odds on the line, that is, the probability determined by the bookmakers with the probability according to yours own assessment. Next, the formula is already familiar to us to help: K x P > 1. If you determine that the result is greater than one, bet.
Let us immediately tell you that there are services for searching value bets on the Internet, you can use them. For convenience, you can also use the value bet calculator - there is online programs, calculating the profitability of the bet.
To monitor the odds of most bookmakers, you can use the website oddsportal.com, myscore.ru, etc.
Advantages and disadvantages of the strategy " Value-betting ».
What is the advantage of using value bets compared to, for example, the same sure bets:
- you don't have to risk placing a bunch of bets on all shoulders at once
- you will never be blocked from a bookmaker, since your behavior will not arouse suspicion
- profits can be much higher than with sure bets
Main disadvantages
- It will take you a significant amount of time to learn how to identify value bets;
- You need to be prepared for a long distance and make a fairly large number of bets (at least 100) to feel the profit.
We hope this information was useful to you and will help you make money on the “Value-betting” strategy.
Value bets are bets on undervalued events. They may sometimes be called “value bets.” But the essence does not change: the bookmaker’s odds must be higher than the real ones. This happens when analysts make an incorrect forecast. Or when a “line load” occurs. Or when a technical failure occurs. To understand the essence of the strategy, you need to look at the theory of probability.
Why do beginners often lose all their money at bookmakers?
The answer is simple. They bet on the odds offered by the bookmaker. Beginners don't think about statistics. They do not take into account the likelihood of an event occurring. In addition, there is also a bookmaker’s margin.
How to determine the probability of a particular outcome occurring?
Bookmakers never provide “net odds”. Those. those that directly reflect the likelihood of an event occurring. You have to analyze everything and calculate. For example, we went to the bookmaker’s office “League of Betting”. Here we are interested in football. To be more specific, “Russia. FNL". We find the event that interests us. This is Dynamo Moscow - Spartak Nalchik. Let's say we want to bet 1,000 rubles on Dynamo Moscow. The bookmaker's odds are 1.6. What will be the probability of these events happening? It amounts to:
100/1,6 = 62,5%.
Those. just over 62.5% believe that Dynamo Moscow will win. This means that 37.5% of the time you will lose. Every third bet will result in a loss for you. Are you ready to lose 1/3?
In the language of numbers it turns out:
Profit = P*(K-1)*V - (1-P)*V.
This formula is universal for valuers. It allows you to determine the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring.
- P is a letter that denotes the probability of an event occurring. It ranges from 0 to 1.
- K is the coefficient that the bookmaker offers us.
- V is the amount of money you bet.
Let's consider the strategy in relation to the example above. It turns out:
Profit = 0.625* (1.6 – 1)*1,000 – (1-0.625)*1000 = 600-375=225.
There is a nuance. Any bookmaker’s office works “in plus” due to the margin. This means that the REAL % probability is much lower. The coefficient is underestimated. This automatically leads to lower profits.
It is precisely in this case that value bets help us. They allow you to bet on undervalued odds. But at the same time, you will get an advantage over the bookmaker (and not the office over you!). This happens when the probability set by the bookmaker is not the real probability of the outcome.
How can this be?
Let's say we have a Russia-New Zealand meeting. We are confident that New Zealand will win. The bookmaker offers us odds of 1.6. It turns out that the probability of the event occurring is 62.5%. We have already calculated this a little higher. You are already sure that in fact the probability of such an outcome is much higher. According to your forecasts, it is 80%. It turns out that the odds should be different at the bookmaker's office. This is 100/80 = 1.25.
How do you discover value betting live? How to find edge bets at a bookmaker?
Everything is simple here. You need the following condition to be true:
K * P > 1.
- K is the coefficient that the bookmaker offers for betting.
- P is the probability of a positive outcome, which you yourself calculated.
Let's take the example we gave. We have already described the numbers above. In our case it turns out that:
- 1,6 * 0,8 = 1,28.
- 1,28 > 1.
- 1,28 - 1 = 0,28.
What does this number mean? What does it mean? If you place bets, you will receive up to 28% of each bet. The profit is quite good. Perhaps you should take advantage of this opportunity?
ATTENTION! You can count everything yourself. But it will take a long time. To significantly speed up the process, use the value betting calculator. 
What will happen in the long run? Will you be able to make money at bookmakers?
Let's say we make 100 bets. How much will we get for them? How to calculate income?
Profit = 100 bets * 0.8 * (1.6-1) * 200 rubles – 100 bets * (1-0.8) * 200 rubles = 9,600 – 4,000 = 5,600 rubles.
In the long run we will not merge. Earnings, of course, are not the greatest. But he is stable.
What do you need to know to make value bets for profit?
VALUE BETTING is a strategy for professionals. It is ideal for people who understand football. Thus, they can roughly predict the course of the meeting. Understand what outcome the teams will disagree with. Predict the victory of one or the defeat of the other. The main features are:
- Find those event groups where it will be possible to use VALUE BETTING.
- Use special calculators and calculate everything down to the smallest detail. Otherwise you will leak.
- Arm yourself with other strategies. “Value betting” is considered the most profitable. But you are never immune from “black streaks”.
- Keep in mind in your calculations that each bookmaker takes a commission. The margin size is individual. It depends on the sport. From the policy followed by the bookmaker. Depending on the type of bet.
- Register with several bookmakers. Traditionally, we recommend you exclusively legal ones.
How much money should I bet on value bets?
1,000 rubles? 10,000 rubles? 100,000? It is difficult to answer the question about a specific amount. It all depends on you and:
- The size of the pot at the bookmaker's office.
- Risks when placing a bet.
- Underestimation of the outcome.
How to calculate profit from a value bet? 3 examples with real numbers
Example No. 1. Bets taking into account the favorite
Let's say we have a match between Australia and Germany. The odds for Australia to win are 11. The odds for Germany to win are 1.28. The meeting should take place on June 19, 2017 at 18:00. It is planned within the framework of the “International. Prefabricated. Confederations Cup 2017. Russia.” Accordingly, we have a clear favorite and a clear outsider. Is it worth saying once again that the odds for the favorite are too low? We look further at the statistics. It becomes clear that our outsider wins 1 match out of 4. It turns out that the probability of his victory is 25%. Next, we substitute the data into the above formula. It turns out:
11 x 0.25 = 2.75.
2.75 is greater than 1.
This means that betting on an outsider will be profitable.
ATTENTION! It turns out that we can make money at the bookmaker’s office without any stress! You only need to look at the statistics + use the mathematical formula. After this you can place a bet.
Please note that the coefficient does not always have to be high. The main thing is more than 1. The lower the odds at the bookmaker, the higher the error. For example, the coefficient is 5.00. This means that the error is approximately 10%. This is less than 0.02. If we take a coefficient of 1.5, then the error will be much higher. It will be 0.0667. It turns out 3 (!) times more.
As practice shows, there is no need to bet on matches with odds below 2.00. They do not meet the requirements Most often, Value Betting matches.
Example No. 2. Bets on the team that will win away
Let's say we find a team that wins away. She consistently wins in 1/3 of the meetings. The odds set by the bookmaker are 3.30. This figure is optimal. It gives you the opportunity to win. For example, you would bet $3 on 3 games. Those. $1 per game. If the team wins, then you get 3.3 dollars. Of course, this is only in theory. In practice, we will need to take into account the shape of the players. Look at meeting statistics. Assess your opponents' chances. Look for the presence/absence of injuries.
Let's say we entered the Betting League. Here we found the sport we were interested in – hockey. To be more specific, it is “U.S. NHL". We are interested in Los Angeles - Arizona Coyotes.
The odds for Los Angeles to win are 1.40. If we bet $1, we will get 1.40. Net profit: 1.40-1.00=$0.40. Judging by the odds, the probability of winning is 60%. Or 0.6.
The odds for the Arizona Coyotes to win are 7.50. In this situation, your winnings will be 1 dollar * 7.50 = 7.5 dollars. Net profit: 7.5-1=6.5. Here the probability of victory is minimal. It is approximately 10%.
They offer 4.00 for a draw. If we bet $1, we will get $4. The net profit will be 4-1=3 dollars. The probability of a draw happening is 30%. Or 0.3.
Next we need to calculate the mathematical expectation. To do this, we use the formula presented above. Of course, we substitute our values into it. And based on them we draw conclusions about making a bet.
- Bets on Los Angeles to win. 0.4 x 0.6 – 1 x (1 – 0.6) = 0.24 – 0.4 = – 0.16.
- Bet on the victory of the Arizona Coyotes team. 6.5 x 0.1 – 1 x (1 – 0.1) = 0.65 – 0.9 = – 0.25.
- The bets are that we will have a draw in this match. 3 x 0.3 – 1 x (1 – 0.3) = 0.9 – 0.7 = 0.2.
It can be seen that betting on victories is risky. Only a bet on a draw has a positive mathematical value. The profit you can make is 20 cents.
ATTENTION! In value betting, the calculator is important! You should only place bets whose mathematical expectation is greater than 0. If it is less (or negative!), then you should not place a bet. If you don't want to take too much risk, use bonuses from bookmakers. For example, “Betting League” offers a 500 ruble free bet. BC "Leon" - 3,999 rubles per account.
Example No. 3. The easiest betting option on VALUE BETTING
It is suitable for beginners. If you just started studying “value bets” yesterday, this is the option for you. The point is to take the bookmaker's odds for a certain outcome. Then all that remains is to use the formula 100/coefficient. For example, we choose the match “NY Islanders - NY Rangers”. Next, we decide on the bet and look at the odds. We don’t look at what the bookmaker offers for a NY Islanders victory. We simply divide 100/60. It turns out 1.67. This means that a bet on the New York Islanders will win if the odds are greater than 1.67.
- Let's do a similar calculation for the NY Rangers. A bet on the NY Rangers will win if the odds are higher than 10. How did we calculate this? It's simple. 100/10=10.
- Finally, let's calculate everything for a draw. She will win if the odds are greater than 3.33. For a quick calculation, we just need 100/30.
As you can see, value bets can really bring you profit.
Where to look for value bets?
So, we have already discussed all the advantages above. Value bets can be found in football, hockey, volleyball, baseball and other sports. Now there is another question. How can you find value betting football? What resources can be used for this? We offer 3 options for the development of events.
Option #1. Bet on overvalued odds yourself
Suitable for those who are good at sports. If you consider yourself an expert in boxing or football, feel free to choose it. True, there are also disadvantages:
- You will have to spend a lot of time. First, to search for events. After that - for calculation.
- You probably don't understand sports better than the experts. At bookmakers, the odds are monitored by experienced analysts. It is unlikely that you will be smarter than them.
- You still bear the risks. Of course, your prediction may be wrong. Because of this, the bet will lose. You will have to accept the loss.
Option #2. Use the value betting scanner (value betting service)
The value betting program is a robot. It scans the odds set by different bookmakers. Data from 100-1,000 bookmakers can be analyzed in parallel. After this, the program collects the odds and finds the arithmetic average there. All that remains is to compare it with each odds separately.
ATTENTION! Scanners are also not always good. IN Lately There is information that they were created by bookmakers themselves. This was necessary to increase sales. Perhaps this is true.
The program gives you the average odds for the event + odds in a separate bookmaker. It is important for you to analyze the numbers. It is necessary to find a value that differs from the average on a larger side. It will be considered undervalued.
Option #3. Look for value bets among arbs
Any value betting strategy intersects with forks. We wrote about them in a separate article. The very existence of the fork once again proves that one of the events was underestimated. Because of the forks, bets with an advantage then appear. Only for detailed analysis you will also have to use special solutions. Value betting programs are offered not only on the Internet. They can even be found in bookmakers.
What does a value betting calculator look like? Is it profitable to use?
The calculator allows you to quickly find correct solution. These simple programs are presented on websites on the Internet. Sometimes they are even available at bookmakers! The service allows you to enter several data and then calculate the profitability of the bet. Below we have presented 1 of the options. There are only 2 fields that you need to fill in:
- Coefficient. Here you indicate the odds that the bookmaker offers for a specific outcome.
- Probability assessment. Here you enter your personal assessment of the likelihood of the outcome occurring.
If you wanted to automate the process and reduce the risk of error, choose a calculator. 
So is it profitable or not very profitable to bet according to the strategy? Reviews about value betting
There are different reviews about value betting. Someone really learned how to earn a lot. Some had to face great losses due to their own mistakes. However, any beginner should understand 1 simple pattern. To become an experienced bettor, you need to study for a long time. Learn from your own mistakes, too. Therefore, before testing the strategy, answer 3 simple questions:
- Are you ready for losses? Are you ready to lose money on bets? To suffer defeats and failures?
- Are you ready to place more than 100 bets? This is the only way you will understand whether the strategy is profitable over the long term. You can draw conclusions based on 10, 20 or 30 bets. But they will be useless.
- Are you sure that all bets are for value? Have you actually looked at the results of the team meetings? Are you sure that they will show themselves in this way in this match?
If you said "YES!" 3 times, everything is fine. If at least 1 of the questions raises doubts, then it is better to refuse the transaction.
3 Advantages of Value Betting at a Bookmaker
- You don't need to take risks by placing money on multiple outcomes. This is exactly what you have to do in the case of forks. Here everything is much simpler and more convenient.
- You are 100% sure that your account will not be blocked. Bookmakers announced real hunt to the "pillars". The rates are easy to understand and track. But with the “valuers” everything is more complicated. For the bookmaker, you will be the same player as everyone else. Your behavior will not arouse suspicion.
- You will make much more profit than with sure bets. Agree, the temptation to earn as much as possible beckons...
Value betting is a strategy that will allow you to earn more! All that remains is to use it wisely to get results. Don't forget that it's difficult for beginners. We are not telling you that it will be easy money. You will have to work a lot, study, analyze. But the long-term profit results are really worth it! The doors to any bookmaker's office are open to valuers! Just choose the one that suits you and feel free to place a bet. If you have any questions, visit our website for competent answers!
Is it possible to win more, in a bookmaker's office or casino, than to lose?
The answer to this question has always been hidden in the knowledge of predecessors gambling of old times, legendary card sharpers, schemers, scheme builders, and real-time betters. The betting textbook contains a description of professionally invented, working and proven methods for increasing the chances of winning in poker, casinos and bookmakers on sports betting.
In the betting textbook you will find a lot of useful information about sports betting.
√ First. If you are still planning to start betting, it doesn’t matter whether it’s sports betting or casino games, in any case you will need your own mailbox, we recommend the mail services of the famous search engines Google - Gmail.com and Yandex - mail.yandex.ru
√ Next, you need to choose a bookmaker on whose website you will place bets on sports and casino games. Go through the simplest registration procedure at the bookmaker's office using the required passport data.
√ Then explore payment methods that allow you to replenish your game balance. Then create an account using the means of registration in the payment system itself. For convenience, you can order a plastic card to which you can withdraw your earned money; you can also use it to make various types of payments for purchases and online transfers. We recommend using the famous payment system Skrill-Moneybookers
The basic steps to start playing in an online casino or placing online sports bets have been completed.
If you decide to just show off for an adrenaline rush of emotions, or drink a beer while watching the game of your favorite team on which you want to bet, you can already start spending time gambling. And yet, if you want to seriously engage in betting, with the prospects of further earnings on it, study the betting textbook, in it you will find a bunch useful information, which will allow you to avoid bets on the boom, and will increase your chances of success in a positive balance for you..
BETTING TUTORIAL 12BETS "All about sports betting"
1. For betting beginners - sports betting from scratch
2. Sports betting - betting on sports via the Internet
Sports betting
Sports betting has been around since ancient times. The kings themselves practiced this difficult art. Delivering a lot of fun and excitement. If you decide to make money through betting, you must understand that only 10 percent of all players on the planet have a hundred percent result, and only 1 percent are considered legends. Most players are losers; only you know who you are.
With the right information, a person’s capabilities grow greatly.
Our betting textbook contains a lot of useful information that will help you become a pro and make money without leaving home.
And in order to win you don’t need to have a lot of money; with an initial capital of ten dollars you can earn the required amount of money. Bookmaker bonuses will help you increase your chances, and no-losing strategies will help you put the money you win in your pocket.
To start betting on sports, you need to decide on the bookmaker in which you are going to play, register with it, make your first deposit, and receive a bonus.
Study the existing types of bets so as not to be a loser who bets real money at random, also study the types without risky strategies and they will one hundred percent insure your money against loss, having this information you will forget about losses because all the information has been tested by time and professional bettors.
Use offers, promotions and to increase your efficiency in the field of sports betting. After all, this is a freebie, and the freebie should be yours.
