The Value betting system is a mathematical strategy for betting on events, the odds of which are unreasonably inflated by bookmaker analysts. For example, if a team wins on average one match out of three on the away court, the odds for victory of 3.30 can be considered somewhat inflated: by betting 300 rubles in three games, you can get 330 at the exit. It is worth considering that the above example is purely theoretical and does not take into account the team’s position in the standings, the level of opponents and other factors.
What is the “Value betting” strategy
Value betting is betting with an advantage. Playing on such bets can give the player a significant advantage over the bookmaker. The point of the strategy is to play only on bets where the bookmaker makes a mistake in assessing the probability.
There are quite a few such events: the odds can change not only due to an incorrect assessment, but also due to the fact that few bets have been made on a given outcome, team statistics have changed, and so on. In theory, value bets over the long term can give the bettor a stable profit.
The value bet can be described by the following formula:
K – coefficient offered by the bookmaker
B is the probability of the event calculated by the player.
Determination of Value bets
Initially, we only know the bookmaker’s odds. All that is required of us is to determine the probability of the event. For this purpose, bookmakers use their own staff of analysts who take into account all statistical and other indicators. Once placed on the site, the rate may change due to a number of factors. First of all, under the influence public opinion. How more people bet on a certain result, the lower his odds will be.
There are two ways to determine the probability of a sports outcome:
- Study of statistics. Mathematics, numbers, calculations. In determining the probability, the history of confrontations between two teams and athletes is taken into account, the history latest games, utility of absent and replacement players, etc.
- Expert review. It is largely based on statistics, but also takes into account other factors - emotional and physical fitness players, psychological readiness to the game, weather conditions, motivation, etc.
Expert analytics is suitable for players who have a thorough understanding of specific form sports If you have studied a league, watch and analyze major matches, are a sports journalist, professional athlete or manager, this method is for you.
The statistical method is somewhat simpler and is suitable for players who know the sport only at an amateur level. One way to determine value rates is comparative analysis bookmaker odds from different bookmakers for a specific match. Taking into account the margin, you can calculate how each individual bookmaker determines the probability. From the set of probabilities, we derive the average indicator and compare the quotes of each individual office with it.
Looking for good value rates
Weakness many bookmakers - they calculate odds based primarily on the position of teams in the standings. However, it is not uncommon for an outsider team to beat the favorite of the race - as an example, the recent victory of HC Sochi over SKA in the Kontinental Hockey League. To find good bet, you can observe how the teams behave on the field and evaluate their form. If the team performs well enough high level, she can turn the situation in her favor and move up the standings. It is important not to miss this moment: the odds will be high only as long as the team lags behind the others.
Another way is to analyze the coefficients on early stage, when the bookmaker's line is just being formed. This method is especially effective in little-known and minor leagues, where the player has the opportunity to obtain certain information before the bookmaker. For example, if a match is planned between two teams of equal strength, the odds for their victory may fluctuate around 2.50. If one of the teams decides to play as a second team and concentrate on a more significant match, the odds will begin to fall. If the player manages to place a bet before the odds drop, he will make a handsome profit. The better’s task is to find out about the changes before the bookmaker and place a bet at an inflated odds. This is one of the reasons to closely follow all sports news.
Sports betting has long grown from a simple hobby into an additional way of earning money. Bookmakers provide services via the Internet; to open a bet, you no longer need to leave your home, and this allows you to conduct in-depth analysis and apply various tactics.
Strategy Value Betting– earnings on sports betting, which is already actively used. Professional bettors often use this technique., she is one of the most popular.
It is difficult for beginners to use it, because it is based on their own forecast, i.e. Without certain knowledge, it will not be possible to make so-called value bets.
The essence of the Value Betting strategy
Essentially, it's trying to win by betting against the favorite. There are a lot of matches where the victory can be won not by a strong team, but by its opponent.
The strategy is based on the statistics of personal matches, the percentage of probability of victory and other indicators. To place bets with an advantage, you should turn to special resources.
Through them, the percentage probability of a team’s victory is conveniently calculated. Having found out this indicator, all that remains is to substitute it into a special formula and make the right decision.
The expected percentage of winning according to the better is multiplied with the bookmaker’s odds and if the number is greater than 1, it makes sense to open a bet.
It is best to use Value Betting when betting on outsiders with high odds.
Despite a well-thought-out scheme, you should not rely only on the formula; there may also be errors here. Therefore, professionals recommend betting small amounts and counting on the long term.
The bet amount will depend on the total pot, e.g. it could be 2%-5% . Try to place as many bets as possible, in the end you will have to gain profit.
According to the theory of probability, it involves obtaining winnings when betting on underestimated game outcomes by bookmakers.
How to use Value Betting correctly?
Bookmakers never reveal their secrets. Some aspects of their activities are not obvious. For example, many beginners consider a coefficient of 1.6 to be quite normal for making money.
In fact, with this odds, the bookmaker expects the outcome of the game to be 62.5% (100/1.6), respectively, over the long haul, bettors lose in 37.5% of cases.
Professionals have learned to correctly determine in which cases it makes sense to open a bet. To do this, they developed the Value Betting formula. Overweight bets involve betting on underestimated outcomes, for example, the victory of the favorite.
A simple example: in football the national teams of Argentina and France meet. The odds for the French victory are set at 1.6, but you think that they will win by 80%, so the real odds will be 1.25.
An important point is that value bets can be determined using a simple rule. The product of your probability of outcome and the odds should be Above zero. Simple formula:
P*K>1
The letter K is the coefficient, P is your prediction for the outcome, which must be expressed in a value up to one. Let's return to our example, we believe that the team has an 80% chance of winning, and the bookmaker sets the odds at 1.6. So we get:
0.8*1.6=1.28
It turns out more than one, so this bet makes sense. In 28% of cases you will win, and in the long run, despite some losses, you will still remain in the black.
Now do you understand why strategy is difficult for a beginner? They simply cannot correctly determine the probability of a particular outcome, and this value must be substituted into the formula.
3 ways to find value bets
Beginners cannot use Value Betting because it is too difficult for them to find value bets. Professionals actively use this, using one of 3 methods of searching for them:
- Manual search for value bets.
Most difficult option, because you have to independently analyze the bookmaker’s line and look for which games have inflated odds.
Only experts can take into account every little detail, and it takes too much time to search for coefficients. Don’t think that you are smarter than the whole team of professionals working in the bookmaker.
- Edge betting scanners.
There are special services that help you find suitable conditions for betting. They work on a simple principle: they collect odds for a certain outcome from a variety of bookmakers. Then they calculate the average and see where the coefficient deviates greatly.
- Forks in bookmakers.
The formation of forks in itself implies that one of the bookmakers overestimates the probability of one of the outcomes of the match.
Again with the help special services, you can determine which events are ideal for this, you just have to open bets in different bookmakers.
As a rule, most users use the latter method, because arbs are available on many sites and through them it is possible to catch serious deviations in odds.
Example of searching for Value Bet using sure bets
To help you understand exactly how this strategy works, let's look at specific example. In the article about, we presented a useful service.
With its help, we find an event where 2 hockey teams from the German league meet; in two bookmakers you can open overlapping bets:
One of them clearly offers an advantage bet. Now you need to make your own forecast and determine with what probability the teams will win.
Let's say that you think WolfeFreiburg are a 75% favorite, so Ravensburg are given a 25% chance of winning. Now we count:
0.75*2.37=1.7775
0.25*1.76=0.44
As a result, we get ValueBet only in the first case, because the value is greater than one. So it makes sense to open a bet on Freiburg to win. The most difficult thing in this matter is to calculate your own forecast.
To do this, you will have to analyze statistics, take into account various nuances, who is playing at home, what injuries the players have, and so on.
Pros and cons of Value Betting
Each strategy can be debated for a long time. In the case of ValueBetting, this is also observed; some consider it ideal, while others do not see the point in these calculations.
Benefits from mathematical calculations There are still some, but they will only be observed over a long distance, so be prepared for losses. Besides:
- You can earn much more on value bets than on sure bets;
- unlike sure bets, betting on outcomes with skewed odds is not prohibited;
- you don’t have to take as much risk as when using sure bets.
Negative points, where without them. Not all bettors are ready to open many bets for small amounts, and this is exactly what Value Betting suggests.
Good profits from this tactic will have to wait a long time ( we're talking about not about 10 or 20 bets, they will be in the hundreds). The second negative point is the difficulty in making your forecast.
Beginners are definitely not able to identify value bets; they simply do not know what the probability of a particular outcome of the match really is.
Where can I try the value betting strategy?
No matter how much you study a niche sports betting and no matter what strategies you use, all this will be meaningless if you end up with a low-quality bookmaker. We recommend using .
Only licensed and verified ones, from them you are guaranteed to receive winnings and your accounts will not be blocked for no reason. Even though “tasty” odds are less common there, you will be confident in stability and fairness.
Mathematical Strategy Value Betting is not new, but definitely effective method conduct calculations to earn money at bookmakers. At a minimum, it will be useful for strengthening your forecasts.
The formula is not difficult to set up, and it helps determine whether you are opening the right bet, taking into account long-term profitability.
I recommend visiting the following pages:
—
—
—
Value bet calculator given the probability of the outcome specified by the bettor, calculates the mathematical advantage over the bookmaker’s line. In other words, the online tool determines whether the bet will be valuable in the long term. The concept of “bet value” is otherwise called value betting.
Not all data has been entered. There may be inaccuracies in the calculations!
To understand the reasons why bookmakers underestimate odds, you need to understand probability theory. The bookmaker's line is a unique mathematical model that provides the company with stable profits. If you blindly follow the offered quotes when betting, then in the long run the bettor, at best, will be around zero.
For example, a bettor constantly bets 300 conventional units on odds of 1.7. He doesn’t think that according to probability theory the winnings will be 100/1.7=58.8%. Consequently, in the long term, 41.2% of bets will be losing, which leads to a complete reset of previously won funds.
For clarity, there is a formula showing the amount of expected profit over time: OP=B*(K-1)*C-(1-B)*C, where
OP - expected profit;
B - mathematical probability of the outcome (expressed as a value from 0 to 1);
C - bet amount;
K - event quote.
If you substitute the previous values into the formula, then the calculated expected profit (EP) will be zero: 0.588*(1.7-1)*300-(1-0.588)*300=123.6-123.6=0. Due to a lack of understanding of the bookmaker's business model, most bettors have no success in betting. Therefore, to achieve a result, you need to earn a mathematical advantage over the line or evaluate events better than the bookmaker does.
What is value
The theory proposes to “beat” the bookmaker’s line with his own weapon - a mathematical advantage of bets over the distance. A transaction is considered value if the probability in the bookmaker's odds does not correspond to reality. For example, for a match of equal tennis players, the bookmaker offers odds of 1.84 and 2.5. It is clear that when equal chances 50/50 it is more profitable to play a bet at odds of 2.5, which will ensure profit in the long run. Since the bookmaker estimated the probability to be 100/2.5=40%.
The condition helps to understand that the value bet is: K*B>1; Where
K - bookmaker's quote;
B is the probability, according to the bettor.
Therefore, 2.5*0.5=1.25>1 or, regardless of losses, at a distance the profit from each bet will be 1.25-1=0.25*100=25%. With a betting bank of 10,000 units and betting on odds of 2.5 at 200 units, over a distance of 100 trades we will get 50 profitable positions and 50 unprofitable ones, based on probability theory. It is easy to calculate the profit: 0.5*(2.5-1)*200*100-(1-0.5)*200*100=15,000 - 10,000= 5,000 units.
How to find value yourself
The approach to value bets should be thorough - the greater the turnover of transactions, the greater the percentage of profit over the course. A deep understanding of the sport is at the forefront. You should not blindly follow high quotes. Professional players unite in syndicates to search for events underestimated by the bookmaker. If a bettor does not have the opportunity to join such communities, then he should rely on his own strength.
1.Monitoring of a limited number of tournaments. For example, a bettor chooses Italian football championships: from the lower divisions to Serie A. Next - full immersion to discipline:
- Study of coaches and team compositions.
- Revealing the team's playing style.
- View matches.
- Construction of statistical tables.
With a responsible approach to business, it will not be difficult to find bets with an advantage that bookmaker analysts have not paid due attention to. Only at a distance, fighting with the entire analytical department of a company is a labor-intensive task.
- Using value betting scanners. There are a lot of resources online that offer bets on odds that are underestimated by the bookmaker. Machine analysis based on comparing the lines of several companies is unlikely to lead to success in betting without proper selection of events. We'll have to go back to point number one.
- Bets on small markets. In unpopular markets, it is easier to find an undervalued odds, since company analysts do not particularly concentrate their attention when drawing up lines on little-known championships or markets of statistical indicators.
- Live betting. Odds during the game change depending on the situation in the match. If the bettor cannot take a valuable position before the match, then it can be taken live. For example, a bettor has chosen a match from the Egyptian football championship with an expected total of less than 2.5, but the pre-match quote of 1.58 does not allow him to conclude a deal that is profitable for the distance. In live the situation changes when a goal is scored, a quote for the market of less than 2.5 goals is offered for good ratio 2.28.
Is value betting profitable?
If a bettor shows a stable plus with a turnover of 1000 or more transactions, then his bets will be valuable. In addition, a bettor who places bets on undervalued events belongs to the cohort of honest players, in contrast to arbers.
Value betting is a profitable and promising direction that provides a plus at a distance. The main thing is to learn how to work correctly with probabilities and use special ones for calculations, which will show the value of the bet in seconds.
Value Betting is a mathematical strategy for betting on undervalued outcomes that are overpriced in the player’s opinion, based on statistics and other factors.
For example, a team wins away from home in every third match. This means that the odds for her winnings are 1 to 3.3. By betting 3,000 rubles on 3 matches, you will receive 3,300 rubles. Of course, this is in theory, since only statistics are taken into account here, and not the shape and composition of teams, motivation, opponents, etc.
The theory of probability will help us.
Try to answer the question. Why do most players lose at bookmakers?
And now the correct answer. Because they bet on the odds set by the company, without thinking about statistics and probability in the future.
Unclear? Let's understand it with an example. Let's say you regularly bet 100 rubles at odds of 1.6. The bookmaker calculates the probability using the formula 100/1.6=62.5%. This means that in the future you will lose in 37.5% of cases. This makes previous successes meaningless. Don't believe me?
Mathematical expectation of average profit: P * (k-1) * V – (1-P) * V, Where:
- P – probability (value from 0 to 1);
- k – coefficient;
- V – money bet.
Let's calculate the numbers from the example above:
profit = 0.625 * (1.6-1) * 100 – (1-0.625) * 100 = 37.5 – 37.5 = 0.
Zero. Yes, exactly zero. Badly? No, it's even worse. Offices set a margin. This means that the probability of passage is higher than the real one, and the quotes are lower. Instead of no income, it turns out to be a minus.
Value Betting Principle
How to be? Let's return to the term value betting.
Value bets are bets on undervalued quotes (with inflated odds) in order to gain an advantage over the office. The odds offered by the bookmaker are incorrect according to your calculations.
Example. Duel Spartak-Krasnodar. Offices posted quotes for P1 1.6 (probability 62.5%). Do you think that real chances 80%, which means the coefficient should be 1.25 (100/80). How do you know if this is a value bet or an edge bet?
Eat special formula: k * P > 1, Where:
- k – bookmaker quotes;
- P is your probability of the event.
Let's do the calculations:
- 1.6 * 0.8 = 1.28 > 1.
1.28 – 1 = 0.28 – if you place bets on such outcomes, then in the future you will earn 28% from each transaction, despite unsuccessful bets.
profit = 100 trades * 0.8 * (1.6-1) * 100 rub – 100 trades * (1-0.8) * 100 rub = 4800 – 2000 = 2800 rub.
Q.E.D.
How to find value bets?
Everything is great, but how to find money for football and other sports disciplines? Keep 3 ways.
Independent search for overvalued odds
If you have a good understanding of the sport and are an expert who evaluates all the nuances that affect the outcome, then go ahead. Sorry, but I have doubts that you are capable of beating teams of bookmaker analysts at a distance who receive impressive sums for their work. If I'm wrong, congratulations! As a rule, successful bettors are offered jobs, and highly paid ones at that.
Value bet scanner (value betting service)
The principle of operation of the services is to scan quotes for one outcome from different bookmakers and calculate the average value. Then there is a comparison with all the coefficients.
The arithmetic mean is considered the most exact value, since all the employees of the scanned offices took him out. In fact, it is. It turns out that a coefficient that significantly deviates from the average will be a value one.
Scanners are available in arb services for free, for example, from.
Search for undervalued events among sure bets
The presence indicates an underestimation of one of the events. The fork is the reason for the appearance of value, the source of bets with an advantage. It’s good if the service provides arbs live, but they have a minus – time for qualitative analysis not enough.
Bet size
After making the calculations and choosing a match that is profitable to bet on in terms of Value, you need to determine the amount of the bet. If you are confident in your own calculations, you can use
StrategyValue betting is probably the only strategy that 100% guarantees profit over the long haul. The only difficulty is that, in essence, it is not a strategy in its pure form.
What is value, or the Value betting strategy
In simple terms, Value betting is what professional bettors do. They look for inflated odds in the line and bet exclusively on them.
Inflated odds, or value (from value), appear on the line due to underestimation or overestimation of a particular team by bookmakers. Distortions in the line are inevitable for a number of reasons:
- A bookmaker analyst who is responsible for a large number of championships at once cannot be a 100% expert in each of them.
- News from teams about injuries, transfers, and changes in starting lineups constantly appears.
Example. In the first rounds of the 2018-2019 RPL season, bookmakers overestimated the strength of CSKA, not taking into account that Goncharenko, in fact, was left with only young players after the departure of Golovin, Vitinho, Ignashevich, Berezutskikh, Wernbloom, Natkho, Musa. As a result, one could bet on the fact that their opponents would not lose in the 1st round at an inflated odds of 2.24.
The “fair” odds in this case were 1.80 and you can see that closer to the match the 1X odds dropped to 1.80.
How pros find value using the Value betting strategy
How can you determine which ratio is fair and which is too high? This only comes with experience. An experienced forecaster who has been following a particular championship for a long time easily notices an inflated odds on a line.
Example. This is a forecast from one Belarusian privateer who has been following local football for a long time. As you can see, he confidently writes that the line should be equal (that is, the odds for P1 and P2 should be about 2.50 - 2.60).
Now let's see how the line behaved closer to the match. The odds for the guests actually dropped to 2.60.
How to bet yourself using the Value betting strategy
If you have not yet become a pro, then to find values you can resort to 3 proven methods:
- Follow the forecasts of an experienced forecaster.
It is important that the forecaster specializes in certain championships, for example, has an excellent understanding only of Russian football. Then he will almost accurately find value in the Russian leagues, and you will be able to learn a lot from his forecasts: news from the camp of the teams, what information he pays attention to. After 3-4 months, you yourself will begin to roughly understand what a fair odds should be in the next match.
- Use odds monitoring services.
In bets using the Value betting strategy great importance has efficiency. Inflated odds tend to fall quickly after cappers notice them and start betting. But not all bookmakers react promptly; often bookmakers such as Betcity, "" or bwin change odds with a delay.
Example. As you can see in the picture, most bookmakers have already lowered the inflated odds to 1.62 - 1.65. At the same time, “1xBet” and “Betcity” continue to give 1.80 – 1.84.
You can track changes in odds manually using free services bmbets.com, oddsportal.com or paid ones, for example, oddstorm.com or any surebets scanner.
- Compare odds with local bookmakers.
A very labor-intensive (since you have to manually view several sites) method, but 100% proven to be effective.
It is no secret that local bookmakers know the situation in local championships much better and, accordingly, set odds more accurately than large European bookmakers.
Example. We see that the odds for H2(0) in the Belarusian bookmaker for the local championship are 1.80, while in other bookmakers, for example, in Betcity, they give odds for H2(0). 2.08. Accordingly, 2.08 is a clear value.
Why the Value betting strategy is profitable
It's all about math and distance. In theory, the average player, playing at “fair odds” over a long distance, will mark time, plus or minus, without losing or winning anything.
But in practice, bookmakers have a margin (reaching up to 10% for some bookmakers), and therefore, over the long term, the player will go into the red when playing at “fair odds.” And this minus will be approximately equal to the bookmaker’s margin: 2-10%.
Now imagine that you play according to the Value betting strategy and every time you bet on value with odds. 2.0 instead of the fair 1.75. Those. your profit at a distance will be approximately 14% higher, which means that even with an extortionate margin of 10% at a distance you can expect a profit.
