Basketball betting strategy

And all of basketball in general. Today I propose to determine whether there really is a working live basketball betting strategy?

I am quite skeptical about various game strategies, since there are no 100% tactics that allow you to win without risk and without much difficulty. But there are some approaches and game concepts that justify themselves. Next, we’ll talk about this, what you should pay attention to during live basketball matches.

Working strategy for betting on basketball live

The most common strategy for betting on basketball live is the strategy of playing on totals in quarters. Yes, there is some truth in this, that it is rare to find a game where all four quarters of the match end with a total of more points scored or a total of less. But sometimes such matches still take place. Some cappers suggest combining this concept of the game with catching up, which, in my opinion, promises failure at a distance. If a capper stumbles upon a game where all four quarters are hammering the ring, then his bank will lose a fair amount of its weight.

If you still decide to bet on the total in quarters, then you must first take into account the following:

Team uniforms
Leaders uniform
Bench scoring statistics

Basketball is an intense sport where substitutions occur every few minutes. All teams start from the start in their most optimal lineups, which means that if all the leaders are healthy and at the start, then it is best to take the total number of points in the first quarter. If the bet works, then in the second quarter we look at the total points less, since in most cases the leaders of each team will rest for most of the time in the second quarter.

But, it is necessary to take into account the depth of the bench, because there are teams in the NBA in particular, where the benches are incredibly powerful and score no less points than the main starters. In less popular championships, where teams of individual performers have less choice, they can more or less equal game play the entire first half with one lineup. Just recently I watched such a match in the Argentine basketball championship. They threw well in the first half, but in the second there were frequent substitutions and the total dropped.

Read also Live volleyball betting strategy: how and what to bet on?

Let's summarize what needs to be taken into account if you bet on the live basketball betting strategy on the total over/under points in the quarters:

Statistics of scoring by the main players
Bench players scoring statistics
Team uniforms in general

It is quite obvious that if a team plays the first half of the game with one lineup, then in the second half there will be substitutions, so in the second half it is worth taking ITM.

Live basketball betting strategy for total total

However, I much prefer a completely different strategy. It consists of the following:

Watching the first half of the meeting (2 quarters)
The initial total is compared with the current one after two quarters
If the total has increased by 7-10%, then the total points are taken to be less, if the total has fallen by 7-10%, then the total points are taken to be greater (overall total of the match)

Let me give you a small example. Yesterday there was a basketball match in Argentina. Initially, the total before the game was set at 162.5. But the players didn’t fly at all. Yes, it happens that you expect more totals in a match, but all the main basketball players seem to be quite good, but they come out and cannot score. The first three quarters were spent on TM, and this is where we see what will happen to the bank if we catch the first three quarters on TB and even catch up. Therefore, I do not recommend using this strategy.

Quarter betting strategies in basketball are based on live betting on a certain outcome in a quarter. This could be the total points or the underdog winning.

Basketball betting strategy by quarter

A basketball game consists of 4 quarters of 10 minutes in Europe or 12 in the NBA. During the season, NBA games take place almost every day. A large number of matches, four periods of time - all this makes basketball an attractive platform for experimentation by bettors seeking to find a winning strategy.

What do bookmakers offer in quarters?

In the painting basketball game There are bets on the indicators of individual quarters: outcome, total over/under, even/odd total.

There are markets for the totals of the most and least productive quarters, as well as for their comparison by totals.

The dynamics of a basketball match, division into time periods allows you to use catch-up when betting. The object of catching up can be total points more or less, victory of an outsider, total even/odd.

Basketball strategy, quarter total bets

This live strategy is based on the fact that all quarters rarely play on the TB or TM. The percentage figures cited by supporters of this game system are not trustworthy. Each player can conduct their own investigation and draw a conclusion for themselves.

The essence of the strategy: we bet on TB (or less) in the first quarter. If you lose, we bet on the 2nd quarter, continuing in the same spirit in case of failure. If we win, we move on to the next match.

We use odds from 1.8 to 2. The winnings should compensate for previous losses and bring profit.

A variation of this strategy: bets on basketball - the total is lower in the fourth quarter. Condition: one of the teams must be ahead of the opponent by 10 points or more. The point is that the result is predetermined, and the opponents do not tense up.

In our opinion, this is a wrong strategy: with such a gap in points, in most cases the fight continues, and when the outcome is really clear, teams can put on a show and play without defense.

Bets on odd or even by quarter

Bets on underdog victory in the quarter

The strategy is sometimes called winning the underdog against the favorite. This is a live strategy + catch-up. According to its followers, the underdog is highly likely to defeat the favorite in at least one segment of the game.

Match selection. The views of bettors vary significantly: from games with a clear favorite with the restriction of “odds on the underdog no more than 7.0,” to meetings of approximately equal opponents, when the odds fluctuate between 1.7–1.8.

It is more logical to choose matches with an implicit favorite: from 2.0 to 3.5 for the outsider to win. It is permissible to take games and equal opponents, but then you will have to increase the amount of the next bet, the value of which is calculated:

B = (FD + NP)/(KS – 1)

According to this strategy, the player bets on the underdog to win, starting from the first quarter. The bet increases after a loss. Having won, the bettor leaves the match. If all quarters end in victory for the favorite, we continue playing in the next match.

Nuances

Take matches from championships, where the difference between the first and last team is not so obvious;
The initial bet and bankroll should be calculated for at least 8 steps, and preferably more than 10.
There is a similar strategy for betting on the last quarter in matches where one of the teams has lost the previous three. It is based on the fact that the team leading the score relaxes and the opponent has a chance.

Example

Let's test ideas on one NBA game day.

Results:

In only one of the 11 matches did the favorite win all quarters - highlighted in red. If you look at the pre-match line, the bet on the underdog was 9.7 (on the favorite 1.09).

The most aggressive followers of this system limited the odds to 7.0. The match did not initially lend itself to this strategy.

There were two more matches with a clear favorite, where the odds on a weak team were above 7.0 - these were “Dallas Mavericks - Houston Rockets” and “Orlando Magic - Cleveland Cavaliers”, but in these meetings the outsider managed to “catch” the quarter.

In two of the three matches, where the favorite won the first three quarters, the outsider celebrated victory in the last period. The exception was the one-wicket match between the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Humpty Dumpty quarterly basketball betting strategy is popular among bettors, representing a modified version of the above strategy with careful selection of matches and various options bank management.

Conclusion

Despite their attractiveness and apparent simplicity, the considered live strategies using catch-up require caution and a balanced approach from players. These are just ideas, using which bettors develop own systems games based on knowledge and experience.

How to use total bets in basketball, practical analysis existing strategies and advice, can you win, as well as an overview of programs for calculating the match total based on statistics, can you trust it? All this is in this article.

A special feature of betting on basketball is the huge variety of totals in the line. This is explained by the division of the game into halves, quarters and the presence of a large number of general and individual statistical indicators related to the total.

What are there

What bets on total in basketball do bookmakers offer?

In the main line of the match there is a classic total - the number of points scored during the match by both teams. You can bet on the TB or TM of the specified amount of points.

Additional totals in basketball can be different. This

Bets on a different total than the average.
The number of points scored by teams not over the entire game, but over a certain interval - half a game, a quarter.
Total points for even or odd (match, half, quarter)
Individual total. This could be points scored, the number of fouls, rebounds, free throws, three-pointers, etc. The bookmaker offers such bets on both teams and individual players. ( What happens in other sports)
Asian total ( what does it look like in basketball)

There are also specific total bets:

Does total in basketball count with overtime (OT)?

Beginners inevitably have a question: is the total in basketball counted with or without overtime? The word overtime is often abbreviated as "OT".

There is no uniform approach in BC. Some calculate taking into account overtime, others without.

Some bookmakers set separate odds for regular time and taking into account overtime... Let's give an example of an excerpt from the rules of one well-known bookmaker.

Which total is more often even or odd?

Which is more common – total even or odd. On the Internet you can find arguments from supporters of both points of view, which are usually superficial in nature.

The rules of basketball are such that in addition to two-point, three-point, free throws, there are also other situations, for example, when teams are punished with an additional free throw (after a player scores a foul). All this makes, in my opinion, the choice of even/odd random.

That is, at a distance total, even or odd has no advantage.

This is confirmed by the even/odd odds at bookmakers - they are usually the same.

However there is interesting point: When a basketball match comes to an end, for example, 2-3 minutes remain, the even/odd total begins to change depending on the current score.

This suggests that over a short period of time, the two-point shot option still becomes the most likely.

This is the basis of one of the strategies that we will consider next.

Basketball total betting strategies

Review of some strategies for totals in basketball.

Strategy for total in quarters even or odd + catch up

The strategy is simple and attractive; there are many reviews about it on the Internet that are diametrically opposed. Its supporters claim that it is based on statistics, namely, quarters in a basketball game very rarely go so that they all end with an even or odd total. Regarding the probability of this, figures from 90% to 97% are given.

The strategy algorithm is as follows: We choose a basketball match, basically any one, then place a bet on the total even (or odd) in the first quarter. We watch the broadcast (or just follow the score online). The bet passes - we move on to the next match, if not - we start catching up, doubling the bet amount on even in the second quarter and so on until the “victorious end”.

Let's try the strategy in practice

On March 27, as part of the regular NBA game day, 5 meetings took place. Let's consider the action of the strategy using the example of one of them. The screenshot below gives us stats 10 last matches both teams. The sample, of course, is small, but still we observe that 2 matches out of 20 ended with quarters of even or odd total.

Let's say our bank is 6,000 rubles. The bookmaker set odds of 1.9 for the total even.

Let’s choose the “cautious” option: we determine the planned winnings of 20 rubles, so the initial bet

20/(1.9 – 1) = 20/0.9 = 22 rubles, which is 0.33% of the bankroll

If we want the profit to be fixed, then the bet amount must be calculated each time using the formula
S = (L + W)/K – 1, where L is the planned gain, W is the total loss, K is the coefficient.
In order not to strain your brain too much, there is an online calculator for calculations

We place a bet on total even in the first quarter.

The first quarter ended “not in our favor” – 27:22 (odd total). I note that in live the bookmaker lowered the odds on the odd/even total in the quarter to 1.87 - Thus, we place a bet on the 2nd quarter in the amount

(20 + 22)/(1.87 – 1) = 42/0.87 = 48

In the second quarter we get 31:31 (even total).

Our winnings, as we planned, were – 48*1.87 – (22 + 48) = 90 – 70 = 20 rubles

The bankroll we have chosen is designed for 8 iterations, that is, if two selected matches in a row are not played as we expected, a “loss” cannot be avoided. Therefore, for the sake of experiment, we continue the game.

The next two matches (which do not overlap each other in time), in which we repeat playing on even quarters -

Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Laker

In the first of them, only the third quarter (27:27) brings an even total.

And finally, in the last match, I must admit, quite quickly, we get 4 odd totals.

Our loss (amount of bets in 4 iterations) – 22 + 48 + 103 + 222 = 395 rubles

We managed to “track” quarters for even four of them. The first quarter of the meeting between the Detroit Pistons and the New York Knicks ends with a score of 36:34, our bet goes through. Profit - 20 rubles.

In the next three matches, using the above calculations, we receive a fixed profit (20 rubles) in the first, second and third steps, respectively. So, in two game day NBA we received income 20*6 = 120 rubles

This strategy can be modified depending on the player’s “imagination”.

If the first bet did not work out, for example, even, then the next one is made on odd, etc.
The player enters the game live and only if the first two quarters ended in even or odd. He, of course, bets on the opposite result.

Unless, of course, we show miracles of forecasting in comparison with the bookmaker’s team of analysts...

There is a way to influence this alignment. It is based on the change of the line from its initial setting until the start of the match.

The player's actions should be as follows: Early in the morning we save the recently set line for basketball (for matches that take place in the evening or at night - NBA). After 10-12 hours we repeat this operation and begin to compare. We see that the line has undergone changes in some positions - somewhere the total went up, somewhere down. These are the matches that interest us. If the gap with the original line is 2 or more points, then players have a chance to have an advantage over the bookmaker.

Let's take a closer look at the example of one of the NBA matches.

In the screenshots we see the initial total from the bookmaker - 229 and before the match - 231. Having entered the additional total list, we find the total 229 and place a bet on TM (229). The coefficient will be 2.19.

Line changes are usually not associated with any exclusive information received by the bookmaker, but solely with the bookmaker’s desire to level cash flows in both directions (this is how the bookmaker makes a profit).

Therefore, the initial total remains the most probable, and we can take advantage of this.

IN in some cases, when the total changes significantly, it makes sense to analyze last news from the team (for example, just before the match it became known that the best sniper, who brings the lion's share of points to the team, was injured).

The match chosen for example ended with a total of 224, our bet was successful.

Let's define the basic rules of the strategy.

Choosing a bookmaker with the most high odds. This is important, especially at a distance, if you seriously intend to “fight” the bookmaker.
We record the state of the line as early as possible for the matches we are interested in (optimally, immediately after it is placed), preferably at least 10-12 hours before the start of the matches.
The authors of the strategy consider 2 points to be the minimum shift in the line when a match can be considered suitable for our strategy.
We place all bets. In this case, we will have an advantage over the bookmaker at a distance.

Main rule:

If the total increases, we place a bet on TM (from the initial value)

Was 200 → became 204 → set TM (200)

When decreasing, set it to TB (from the original value)

Was 200 → became 197 → set TB (200)

Conclusions.

I think the strategy is worthy of attention. Can be adopted by bettors playing flat. Finding “value” bets requires knowledge and time, and in this case we increase our chances against the bookmaker without spending much effort.

Shchukin's strategy for totals in basketball

The strategy is based on a pre-match analysis of a basketball match and calculation of the probable individual total of both teams based on statistics from the teams’ latest matches and personal meetings. Accordingly, it is assumed that it is possible to correctly guess or calculate the outcome of the match and the overall total.

In short:

We select a match for analysis, not forgetting that we need team statistics.
We calculate the expected total of the 1st team (hosts) using the formula. To do this, we add up the points scored by the team over the last 5-7 games, and divide the resulting amount by the number of matches. Next, we add 1 to the result obtained for a victory and subtract 1.5 for each of the defeats (the last meetings of the team are taken into account). The calculation of the total ends with the addition of three points - the “host bonus”.
We do a similar calculation for the 2nd team, with the exception of adding a “bonus”.
Based on the statistics of personal matches over three years, we calculate the average total of the 1st team in these matches. We add the resulting value to the total obtained in steps 2 and divide by two. We do the same actions for the opposing team. As a result, we get the probable total for each team.
At the final stage, we make a comparison with the BC line. If the total we received differs from the total set by the bookmaker by more than 5 points, then such a match is suitable for betting. If the total in the line is greater than “ours”, then we bet on TM. Accordingly, if the total in the line is less than “ours”, we bet on TB.

Let's analyze the match analysis using an example:

Let's choose one of the NBA matches
Bookmakers often provide pre-match team statistics.
It is, naturally, incomplete, more detailed information can be found on one of the statistics analysis sites (for example, https://www.sport12x.com/ru/statistics?sport=9&tourn=31). Result of the last 7 matches of the New York Knicks
We make a simple calculation: 98 + 95 + 101 + 105 + 110 + 87 + 112 = 708
708/7 = 101.1
101.1 + 3 = 104.1
104.1 + 1 – 6 *1.5 =105.1 – 9 = 96.1
Results of the last 7 matches of the Detroit Pistons

87 + 95 + 96 + 112 + 75 + 83 + 96 = 644
644/7 = 92
92 + 1 – 6 * 1.5 = 93 – 9 = 84
We calculate the average totals in personal confrontations (10 meetings).

New York Knicks.
92 + 105 + 89 +102 +105 +108 + 90 + 95 (no overtime) + 81 + 95 = 962
962/10 = 96.2
(96.2 + 96.1)/2 = 96.15 Detroit Pistons
112 + 102 + 102 + 89 + 111 + 96 + 112 + 95 (no overtime) + 97 + 98 = 1014
1014/10 = 101.4
(101.4 + 84)/2 = 92.7 So, the estimated team totals are 96 and 93, total 189 points.
The match total set by the bookmaker was 209 points.
Thus, our calculated total differs from the total in the line by 20 points. This is, of course, a lot. It’s time to wonder if there is some kind of catch here... If we come to the conclusion that there is no, then we can safely bet on TM (209).
As a result, the teams scored 204 points, our bet worked

But the forecast itself turned out to be far from reality.

Some features of the strategy.

The strategy requires pre-match analysis (searching for statistical data) and calculations, which makes it a little more difficult to use
As a result of the analysis, we have the estimated score, the individual team total and the overall match total. In my opinion, the latter is the most reliable indicator that you should focus on when choosing a bet.
Critics of the strategy often complain that the analysis is not serious enough (the results that are extreme in totals are not discarded, there is no accounting for home and away games, the strength of the opponent, etc.)

Conclusions.

When talking about the passability of bets using this strategy, the figure of 70% is usually mentioned, which, of course, causes some mistrust. However, everyone can test this system themselves and draw their own conclusions. In my opinion, in the information age, serious mathematicians are developing software systems that can completely “calculate” a match with all its nuances. Therefore, such a strategy, based on very simplified calculations, is useful for bettors, but can hardly serve as the only basis for the game...

Strategy for Total Over or Under based on the results of the first half

This strategy is called differently on the Internet. main idea next. We select a match (preferably several), fix the initial totals. We watch the first half of the meeting (two quarters). We compare the initial total and the current one set by the bookmaker depending on the course of the game. If the difference is 10%, then such matches are suitable for us. If the total has dropped (teams score few goals), then we bet on TB. Otherwise, the total has increased, we bet on TM.

It so happened that I tested this strategy using the example of the already mentioned match between the Detroit Pistons and the New York Knicks. The total before the match was 209.

The teams started the meeting so brilliantly that they managed to score 70 points in the first quarter. The current total reached 227 points and after the first half it stopped at 225.

The difference was 16 points, I bet on TM (225). As can be seen from the following screenshot, the teams scored 204 points between them - the bet was successful.

Another practical example is the NBA match between Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic.

The total after the first half was down 22 points from the original. Following the strategy, we bet on TB(200.5).

The teams reached overtime, but the total was broken during regular time of the match (204)

What you should pay attention to when playing this system:

Selecting matches. Recommendations on this matter are different - the exclusion of youth games, cup finals, and unpredictable “exotic” championships. It is worth agreeing that in comparison with bets on even/odd (where, in principle, any match is suitable), it is better to focus on famous leagues(NBA, Euroleague, etc.)
There are different views on how to assess the magnitude of the total bias when selecting matches for a bet. Above we mentioned 10% (or the first two digits, which is the same). This general case, and so, in principle, you can consider other options, starting from 5-7 points. Here the player can analyze the situation himself and make a decision.
On the Internet you can find a description of a strategy called “total boom basketball strategy.” It also provides for catch-up in case of failure, which seems quite logical.

More strategies. Briefly

The possibilities of bettors are not limited to the presented strategies.

Another very interesting and attractive area is the “” and “” strategies for totals in basketball, which in some sense can be considered win-win.

Also popular is the strategy for total in a quarter, based on the belief that all four quarters of a team are not playing for TB or TM. It is similar to the even/odd system in the quarter, only in this case it “catch up” with the TB or TM in the quarter.

Basketball total forecast. The role of statistics

Most popular strategies are based on statistics. Various basketball statistics services provide all kinds of information about leagues, teams, and players. The priority, of course, is NBA statistics (for example, https://ru.global.nba.com/statistics/teamstats).

NBA fans are familiar with the impressive scoring records recorded in the world's most popular league.

The maximum number of points scored by both teams in regular time is 320 points (Golden State - Denver, 162:158, 11/02/1990). If you take into account overtime, then 370 points (Detroit - Denver, 186:184 (3 OT), 12/13/1983).

How to predict the total in basketball

Exist different approaches to solving the issue of predictions for the exact total in basketball. We have already discussed some above.

It is definitely worth taking into account the basis (the same as in other sports), but basketball has its own specifics:

Analysis physical fitness players (complex schedule, moving long distances, etc.).
Presence of injured players on both teams. This factor can seriously affect the total. The situation must be monitored almost before the start of the match.
When calculating the total of each team using statistical data, it is worth considering:
- Home field factor (if a team plays at home, then home matches are taken into account).
- Games whose results are not typical for one reason or another for the team being evaluated are discarded.
- Overtime and playoff games are not taken into account if we're talking about about the regular season (performance drops in straight games).

Possession Ratio Approach

Another interesting approach to analyzing basketball totals will appeal to fans of match statistics. It is based on the ratio of the number of ball possessions of each team and the points scored. You can determine the effectiveness of a team's actions in attack and defense.

If there are 120 points per 100 ball possessions, the attack efficiency is 1.2 points per possession.

To calculate the probable total of a match, you need to correctly predict the number of ball possessions in the match and determine the effectiveness of the teams’ attack.

Basketball also has a well-known scheme for calculating totals for American football. We have already considered its use for European football; for basketball it looks similar, only there it is necessary to use the average total (in relation to a specific league). For example, in the NBA, according to the service https://www.sport12x.com/ru/mathematics/basketbol/ssha_nba, from 2012 to 2017, the average total was 200.45 points.

Review of programs for calculating totals in basketball: tables, calculators

Various mathematical tools for calculating totals in basketball are actively promoted online on a commercial basis. The question of their effectiveness requires separate research. Here I will just give examples mathematical tools, which are used by bettors.

Considering Shchukin's strategy for basketball, we performed calculations manually using simple formulas. The next level is automatic calculations based on Excel tables or programs.

A type of simple calculator program for calculations where you need to enter information into a table. Unlike the descriptions of calculating the total according to Shchukin on the Internet, here the selection of matches is limited to six games.

Another option is to calculate directly in an Excel spreadsheet. One of them is called “Analytical program for betting on basketball” and determines the outcome and total of the match.

Here the sample is 10 matches. In the screenshot below we see the results of the calculations.

It is typical for the listed funds that statistical data is entered manually.

Among the more serious programs that independently collect the necessary data, we can highlight the WinBasket program for betting on basketball matches. The program window is divided into several areas. On the left we select the match, after which we observe the team statistics and calculated indicators - scores, totals, odds. According to the authors of this program, it analyzes matches according to three schemes at once:

Shchukin system
Outcome/Match system
NBA fly system

Algorithms, programs, models based on statistical analysis and probability theories are used by all participants in the betting market (bookmakers, players, cappers). On the relevant forums you can find discussions about Markov chains and the Kolmogorov–Champen equation. However, I am convinced that all this is only one means to achieve the goal, and the data produced by these programs cannot be taken as a 100% forecast of the upcoming event.

Summing up

Assessing the prospects for totals in basketball for betting, I can say the following. Basketball is not a priority sport for me. However, when I became more familiar with this area of betting, I discovered quite a lot of interesting opportunities. It is basketball that seems to me a convenient “battlefield” with a bookmaker when using various strategies related to line changes, live bets, middles and sure bets.

Basketball is one of the most popular sports among betting fans for a number of reasons - it is a dynamic game with frequent scoring attacks, unique in its kind among game types sports. In this article we will analyze one of the popular strategies for betting on basketball.

A basketball game is divided into quarters, making it one of the most convenient types sports for live betting, especially for playing with a catch-up strategy. In football and even hockey, where there are three periods, it is quite difficult to find a “distance” for a catch-up strategy in one match, but basketball, with a match divided into four parts, is almost ideal for this.

Any team can win one quarter in basketball

The essence of the “match by quarter” basketball betting strategy is that almost any team can win at least one quarter in a basketball match, and it is extremely rare that the match goes “in one basket” and all four quarters have one winner.

Let's test our thesis and simply take 10 random matches, for example, the Spanish Championship from April 12 to 25.

As we can see in the picture, there were no such matches where one team won in all quarters in our random sample, although there were two cases (Manresa - Cajasol and Baskonia - Zaragoza) when only one team, while the other was only able to achieve local draws in one or two game periods.

And this despite the fact that there were outright defeats here - in the match with Baskonia, Zaragoza, having lost 28 points in the end, was able not to lose the first quarter, and Bilbao, having lost to Canarias by 18 points, won the third quarter and looked decent in the first one. What are we leading to? Any team can win at least one quarter in basketball, if we are talking about serious tournaments where there is no huge difference in class, and our observations suggest that it is very, very difficult for one team to win all periods of a basketball game.

It’s better to “catch up” with a victory in the outsider’s quarter

Based on these observations, we can play catch-up on quarters. It is, of course, more logical to bet on an outsider, since the odds for him are higher and will almost always be more than 2.0. If in the first quarter (which the favorite very often fails, giving a head start to the outsider) the bet does not go through, we double the amount and bet on the outsider winning in the second quarter, and so on according to the catch-up strategy.

The point of this basketball betting strategy is that even if that rare situation happens when one team wins all quarters, the amount of loss after four bets will be relatively small, but as experience shows, you still need to be able to run into such a game. In most cases, the basketball match we have chosen for the game will generate income at one of the stages of catching up and in this case it is better to move to another, starting from its first quarter.

In order to avoid failure and falling into rare cases of one-wicket matches, you need to carefully select matches for betting, and also do not hesitate to secure some of them in the form of an X2 bet on a quarter - as we see, draws are not rare here and should be kept in mind, especially in matches with a clear outsider.

This strategy of betting on basketball, of course, is not a win-win, but with due skill and caution it can be successful if you bet wisely, choose the right matches and have a good understanding of basketball, and be able to correlate the strengths of teams.

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One of the most popular sports is basketball - more exciting and beautiful game for those who are interested entertainment events. But basketball is also in a great way make money on bets in bookmakers, having their own features and secrets. In addition, betting strategies on basketball differ from football precisely in their approach to different leagues, championships, countries, and therefore more accurately assess the future result of the competition. So, in order.

Fast passage

Betting on total in basketball

Basketball is one of those sports where there are many opportunities for making money on bets, but the breadth of analytics is also quite large. The peculiarity of the deal on the outcome immediately catches your eye - you need to carefully check with the bookmaker (and if indicated, take it into account) with or without overtime, the bet is considered to be played. Overtime is the extra time (5 minutes) that is given if the teams are tied at the end of the main game. By the way, whether there will be overtime at the end of the match is also a separate bet on which you can make quite good money.

Total betting in basketball is one of the most popular types of bets at bookmakers. Totals represent a numerical line, in both directions, one of which must be selected to conclude a deal with the bookmaker. The types of totals for basketball are the same as in football, only the essence of the meaning and the numerical indicator are slightly modified. Total over (TB) and under (TM) indicate whether the specified event indicator will be exceeded or not. In football, for example, it is common to see totals such as 1.5 or 2.5 for the number of goals scored. And in basketball, it is not the number of shots into the basket that is counted, but the points scored (a regular thrown ball is 2 points, a three-point shot is long-range). Therefore, you need to understand that TB155.5 per match is the norm, but for the period it is definitely too much. Again, detailed analytics of cups and teams will help you determine the maximum possible total for the game.

In addition to points for the entire game, totals in basketball are used for each quarter and for an individual team. Mathematical calculations and past statistics after determining the approximate total will help with other indicators.

Live basketball betting

Making a bet on a bookmaker's website when the match has already started is live betting. They have a greater advantage in basketball than in other sporting events. If in football there are only 2 halves, and in tennis, a maximum of 3 sets, then in basketball there are 4 periods, which means that the possibilities are wider and, in the event of an unplayed bet in the first or even the first three periods, there is always the opportunity to win back in the fourth . Playing live here is also pleasant because you don’t have to bet on the entire game as a whole, you can just limit yourself to one period, and if the bet is immediately successful, you can safely refuse further transactions on this match.

In live betting, you can make deals with the bookmaker not only on the outcome or total for the main time and periods; even before the end of the game, handicap coefficients (handicap) are still available, who will score a point in the match or a bet on even/odd, which is not uncommon in live betting. bets and free throws or fouls.

Basketball betting by quarter

An excellent opportunity to quickly “raise” money, increase your chances of winning, or return funds for an obviously unplayed bet is to play not the entire game at once, but in stages. Betting on basketball by quarters has worked well, and to understand the advantage, let’s consider this strategy option.

Live match – Gran Canaria and Hapoel Jerusalem. The third quarter is already underway and the total points at this moment in the game are a draw. But a draw, as you know, is not the most common outcome of a game, especially in basketball. If a bet has already been made on Gran Canaria to win for the entire match, but in the third period the lead shows that the forecast may not come true, then there is an opportunity to correct the situation by betting on the opponent’s total or the handicap of the current outsider, depending on the size of the odds and the theory of probability . It is also worth analyzing the situation and not rushing. It often happens that a basketball team swings for a long time, exhausts the opponent, and then gets a second wind. Therefore, it is better to place bets on periods in basketball in real time and, preferably, by watching the current state of the game via online broadcast.

Even and Odd Bets in Basketball

To place a bet on even/odd in basketball before the game and at the beginning of the match is to point your finger at the sky, no better than playing in a casino with a 50 to 50 chance. But if you analyze three quarters of a sporting event and rely on statistics on the frequency of abandoned three-pointers ( taking into account the presence of basketball players who systematically make such shots) - then the percentage ratio of the variation of even and odd begins to be adjusted in the direction of the better. You should not focus on the coefficient (equal to 1.85) - it is the same for the reasons stated above, because the bookmaker himself does not know what the result will be.

Features and secrets of online betting on basketball

1) Points per game are more consistent than in other sporting events, even over time. There is a certain range of goals scored from approximately 114 to 230 including overtime, depending on the league and teams participating in the match. And if in football or hockey a game can often end in a draw or zero score, then basketball does not suffer from such events.

2) It is possible to bet on handicap and total without significantly reducing the odds, as often happens in football.

3) The intensity of the number of competitions in championships is much higher - you can place a bet almost every day.

The secret of successful bets on basketball can be called the patterns that occur during the game:

1) At the beginning of the season, basketball teams fall short in terms of points when compared to averages. The main reason is the “buildup” and adjustment of the “fighting spirit” of athletes.

2) Replacing even one player in the starting lineup can lead to unpredictable results - after all, without teamwork and a team system, it is much more difficult to defeat an opponent. The same goes for getting injured during the offseason.

3) The effectiveness of goals scored in the playoffs is lower than in the season, because the main task in the competition is to prevent the opponent from scoring, and only then attack.

Basketball betting strategies vary in each individual league, cup, and any bettor will notice that, sometimes, there are big differences between the results of matches. The most popular basketball matches for betting are the FIBA Challenge Cup (which includes the famous NBA - the US National Basketball Association), Euroleague, Eurocup, VTB United League. The strategy for betting on totals on a general basis in each individual club is the arithmetic calculation of the average statistical indicator, taking into account the handicap. How to calculate the correct total for a game between teams?

Calculating the average total per basketball team and per match

Having selected a game, we turn to statistics on previously played matches. It is important that the more previous data is collected, the more accurately the outcome of the current basketball match will be calculated. For example, let's take the last 7 competitions of both teams with other opponents. We calculate the average of each - sum up the points and divide by 7. So, we add a 3-point handicap to the host side, since they are playing at home, we don’t touch the guests for now. After this, we make the following calculations with the result of the home team - for each victory in the last 7 matches we add one, and for a loss we subtract 1.5. We do the same with the results of the guests. As a result, we get two values that can be considered an approximate indicator for the team. The sum of these numbers divided by two will be the average total for the match. Select the nearest total to bet on.

Data from statistics can be taken directly from the bookmaker’s website, which stores information about past events in the archive, filtering the data by teams and clubs. On Vinline, for example, clicking on the statistics icon (opposite the match on the right) will open a new tab where you can see the results of matches already played, a calendar of events, and head-to-head meetings.

Catch-up betting on basketball

The catch-up strategy works great in one match, when the deal is made for periods. How it works? We bet on a probable event with a lower odds for the first period; if we didn’t play, we double the amount and again bet on the same outcome only in the second period. After the team fails in the first segment of the game, it will try to rehabilitate itself, and the bookmaker will immediately increase the odds. If rehabilitation does not occur during this period of the match, the coefficient increases even more, and we again do the same actions with the next period. Here we get either a significant win or a change in positions. Usually, by the fourth quarter, the gap in such a failure is significant, so we change our opinion to the clearly opposite one, and bet on the original outsider, increasing the amount so that at least we have a small profit, since the odds will be much smaller than at the beginning of the game.

Ordinary – single bet

A single bet can only include one bet with a fixed odds by which the amount bet will be multiplied. It is necessary to play with singles in order to diversify deposits, reducing risks to a minimum. At the same time, you can use single coupons to play both for different matches and for one, even with a change in the initial positions for the match. This is the easiest way to place bets on sports on the bookmaker's website.

Express bets are bets that include deals on multiple matches. Express is attracted by the opportunity to increase the investment several times and even tens of times. The nuances are: you cannot put express odds from one match into one, and also, if you lose at least one point from the coupon, the entire amount is burned. As a recommendation, try not to make too long lines of sporting events in one coupon. It would be better to have several express bets, but with a higher probability of winning, especially since one such coupon out of 2-9 bets can give a profit even if the rest of the tickets fail.

Let's start with the fact that not all bookmakers offer a betting system to the better, and the main reason is the increased probability of winning. For beginning players, this is just a chance to insure themselves against losses due to lack of experience. The essence of the betting system in basketball is to give the bettor the right to make a mistake without losing all the invested funds. The system coupon consists of splitting a long express bet into several short ones, and in case of losing one or more (depending on the chosen type of system), receiving a win on the rest. The system coupon can be, for example, 2 out of 3 or 6 out of 12, where in the first case the loss of one event is allowed, and in the second - six. But for winning short express bets, the odds are not multiplied, but summed up. The final result of the coupon, compared to a regular express bet, is lower in profitability, but it gives you a much greater chance of winning.

Virtual basketball VBL (VBL)

Digital technologies have firmly entered our lives and now fans of virtual sports have the opportunity to make money on VBL (virtual basketball) bets. VBL matches are simulated by artificial intelligence possible outcome games, taking into account the built-in statistics of real teams, their position in the standings, and club performance. Episodes from the match are created using a generator random numbers, and the bettor can watch the game using a virtual broadcast.

The virtual basketball system works around the clock. There are 16 teams participating in the competition, and each game out of 8 takes place within 3 minutes 20 seconds. Before placing a bet on virtual basketball, you need to understand not only the system of events, but also study statistical indicators current state standings, analyze team performance. Next, open a deal:

In the line we find the line “Virtual basketball”;

To view statistics, click on the icon shown in the screenshot.

Events open for betting are located immediately below the general information;

Clicking on a match will open a window for additional bets, where you can select odds from handicaps, total and individual totals, a victory for one of the teams or a draw. Transactions are accepted up to 10 seconds before the start of the match. Place your bets and click on the appropriate button. After 4 minutes we get the results of the game.

How to bet on basketball on the bookmaker's website

Having learned the theory of betting on basketball and analyzed the statistics of the most predictable matches, we get down to business. How to place a bet at a bookmaker? Let's consider the simplest method - ordinary. So, the steps to making a bet with a bookmaker look something like this:

1) We register on the website of a bookmaker, preferably a licensed one. On our website, all bookmakers are official and working through TsUPIS (what is TsUPIS, its advantages and disadvantages read in separate article). We enter real data and confirm our identity by following the instructions on the site.

2) We add money to the balance of any of the payment systems presented on the website.

4) We create our own basketball betting strategy using general information.

5) Click on the match to open the currently presented odds from the bookmaker.

6) Select the required bet category and click on the winning indicator. At this moment, a coupon is filled out on the right, which indicates information about the competition, the selected odds and the amount to bet. We indicate the amount and click the “Make a bet” button, or the symbol that replaces it.

7) We repeat the same steps, only from point 3, to open new deals with the bookmaker. Follow the matches and win money on online bets!