It’s unlikely that anyone wants to lose at a bookmaker’s office. Therefore, some players use surebets - a strategy in which it is impossible to lose. It is not very complicated, and the main thing in its use is to apply formulas for calculating the size of bets and the presence of an arb.
Arbing in bookmakers is a strategy of betting on several outcomes in several bookmakers (as many outcomes, as many offices).
Example: Football team 1 plays against team 2. As you know, in football in regular time there can be 3 outcomes: victory of team 1, team 2 and a draw. That is, you need to choose 3 bookmakers with best odds for these outcomes. In one there will be the highest odds for team 1 to win, in the other - on the second bet, in the third - on the third. Then you need to apply the formula below, calculate the size of the bets and place them.
There will not necessarily be three outcomes. There can be two of them, as, for example, in tennis.
Fork calculation formula
In order for the arb to work, sports bets must be calculated using the formula:
B = 1/K 1 + 1/K 2 + 1/K 3
- B - a value indicating whether there is a fork or not. There is B > 1 - there is no fork if B< 1 - вилка есть;
- K is the bet coefficient; there can be two of them, depending on the type of sport and the tournament value of the match (for example, for football K 1 - P1, K 2 - P2, K 3 - X).
Example: Soccer game between team 1 and team 2. The odds for team 1 to win are 2.6, for team 2 - 2.8, and for a draw - 4.2 (let’s imagine that this is a Champions League semi-final and equal teams are unlikely to advance in extra time) . We check for the presence of a fork using this formula:
1/2,6 + 1/2,8 + 1/4,2 = 0,978
B = 0.978. IN< 1 (значение меньше единицы), поэтому вилка есть.
Formulas for calculating bet sizes
P 2 = K 2 / (K 1 + K 2) * C
Using this formula, we get the bet size on the second outcome. To get your bet on the first outcome, simply subtract from total amount bets the result obtained using this formula (C – P 2 = P 1). All explanations and example are below.
The second formula is applicable for those sports where there are 3 outcomes. The formula must be used for each outcome, that is, 3 times.
Р = (1/К/В)*С
- P - bet size on the outcome.
- K is the odds for the outcome.
- B is the fork value calculated using the first formula.
- C - the sum of all bets on the selected event.
Example: the same football match with the same teams and odds. The bet amount is $100. We calculate the bet size for each outcome:
- (1/2.6/0.978)*100 = 39.2. This is the bet size for Team 1 to win.
- (1/2.8/0.978)*100 = 36.5. This is the bet size for Team 2 to win.
- (1/4.2/0.978)*100 = 24.3. This is the bet size on a draw.
We multiply the resulting bet size for each outcome by the odds and get approximately $102 everywhere, that is, $2 more from the total bet amount on the selected event. That is, there will be a profit in any case, even if it is so small, but it will definitely be there.
You can search for sure bets from bookmakers yourself or use services free search bookmaker's sure bets. Enter “bookmaker surebets selection” into a search engine and select the site that you consider best for yourself.
Problems in choosing forks
Arbs are supposedly low-risk strategies, but in fact, even before you place bets, you can make a mistake and lose. There are several such situations:
- Changing odds is the most offensive thing. You’ve seen how much you need to calculate using formulas to calculate both the presence of an arb and the size of bets. If you did not have time to place a bet, and the odds have changed by at least 0.1, it makes sense to recalculate everything again.
- Lack of time is directly related to the previous situation. Forks disappear as unexpectedly and quickly as they appear. Bookmakers monitor the appearance of forks and try to close them as quickly as possible. Therefore, the odds change so that the meaning of the arb disappears.
- Some bookmakers have a low betting limit. Without knowing it and counting on the fact that you can make bets of the same size in all offices, you can make a big mistake. Therefore, it is better to find out about the rules of the office where you play in advance.
- Some unscrupulous bookmakers may cut the maximums for their customers. That is, the player will not be able to bet more than a certain amount. It is better not to play in such offices or check your capabilities before thinking about using a fork.
- Since the winnings in arbs are guaranteed, but small, it is better to know about the commission. If the office where you win is big, consider that you have not won anything. Therefore, either choose companies where the commission is lower, or play a lot or for big money.
Strategies are not always good, so use all the information available to you wisely rather than trying every betting strategy in a row. After all, placing bets is not a game, but a job.
How to use bookmaker's sure bets correctly to have Fixed salary, all the intricacies of playing for sure based on real reviews.
What are bookmaker sure bets
Bookmaker arbs (arbitrage situations) are a betting strategy in which a player bets on one event at different bookmakers, but on mutually exclusive outcomes, and the odds for these outcomes are added up in such a way that the player is guaranteed to make a profit in any scenario.
For a better understanding, let's look at a simple example.
Match Barcelona - Shinnik. For simplicity, let's imagine that this is the Champions League final and there can be no draw. Accordingly, only 2 events are possible:
- Barcelona will win
- Shinnik will win
The 1st Bookmaker gives the following odds:
And the 2nd Bookmaker is:
This is the fork:
Let's see what will happen for each outcome if we bet on these odds (with a bank of 100 rubles)
For each of the 2 possible outcomes events we remain in the black by 8 rubles. That is, we have profit regardless of how the match ends.
64 rubles, 36... Where did these numbers come from? We calculated them using the formula (analysis of formulas with examples and a calculator is given in the next paragraph).
If anyone doesn’t believe that this happens, here’s a real bet on hockey between two well-known bookmakers
Bank 100 rubles:
Sports forks on double outcome in football, hockey, basketball do not necessarily have to be for the victory of one team or another. It could be:
- TB 2.5 / TM 2.5
- Victory of one of the teams / draw
- Ф1(1.5) / Ф2 (-1.5)
- Etc., that is, mutually exclusive events
But there are also forks with treble, quarter, etc. outcomes
Examples of arbs with a triple outcome:
- 1X2 – victory of 1 team / draw / victory of 2 teams;
- Sure bets with totals in tennis (if they play up to 2 sets):
score 2:0 / score 0:2 / total of sets played 3
Three-way arbs can be not only for 3 mutually exclusive outcomes, but also for the following cases:
- When 2 outcomes out of 3 win;
- When your bet is returned based on 1 or 2 outcomes (this applies to bets on handicaps and totals in football).
Simple example TB(1) / TM(1.5) / TM(0.5). If the score is 1:0 TB(1) bet is refunded and plus TM(1.5) wins.
Example of a quadruple bet
- Outcomes in tennis, if they play to the first 2 sets: 2-0 / 2-1 / 1-2 / 0-2
And even a six-way fork
- By sets in tennis, if they play up to 3 sets: 0:3 / 1:3 / 2:3 / 3:0 / 3:1 / 3:2
Formula for calculating bookmaker surebets
There is a formula to calculate surebets
B = 1/K1 + 1/K2 + 1/K3
IN– A value indicating whether there is a fork or not.
If B>1- no fork,
If in<1 - there is a fork.
K1, K2, K3, K4 etc. – odds for bets on mutually exclusive outcomes, as many probable outcomes as there are odds.
Let's calculate our example:
0,92 < 1 – значит это вилка
Yield in % = 100 – (B*100)
In our case it is:
100 – (0,92*100) = 8 %
Now let’s determine how much money to bet on each event. There is a formula for this too
P– Bet size on the outcome,
TO– coefficient on the outcome,
IN– the value of the fork calculated using the first formula,
WITH– the sum of all bets on an event or the money you have allocated for a sure bet.
Let's say our bank is 100 rubles
We calculate the bet on Barca: 1/1.7/0.92*100r = 64r
We calculate the bet on Shinnik: 1/3.0/0.92*100r = 36r
It is also worth noting that nothing prevents us from redistributing the bet amounts so that winnings on a more likely outcome (the favorite’s victory) gives more profit, and a bet on a less likely outcome (the outsider’s victory) simply gives zero profit, insuring us.
Forks - Online Calculator
To prevent your brain from exploding from all these formulas and not counting it all manually every time, below is an online surebets calculator that will help you do the calculation:
Overrated Middles
Another derivative of forks is overvalued middles. Briefly using an example, we have:
- 1st bookmaker odds 2.0 per TB 0.5
- 2nd bookmaker odds 2.5 on TM 1.5
Accordingly, if 0 goals or more than 1 are scored, then we win, but if there is 1 goal, then 2 bets are played and we have excess profit. But this is a convergent corridor; there are also non-convergent corridors; more on this in the next article.
Incomplete forks
Another variation is the strategy of incomplete forks or Dutching.
The case when we choose an event and bet on the most likely outcomes, skipping outcomes with low probability. An incomplete arb can be used when placing bets even within the same bookmaker's office.
Negative fork
The same fork, but resulting in a loss.
What's the point then?
They work well in combination with bonus offers from bookmakers: Cash-back, risk free-bet and others.
For example, Free Bet. The point is that the bookmaker gives you a chance to place a bet with his money, and if you are successful, the winnings (minus the amount of the bet) go to you, and if you fail, you do not risk anything, since it is, as it were, the bookmaker’s money.
How can this be applied in practice? This method is called "Matched Betting"
For example:
- You bet 100 rubles with odds of 1.26 on Manchester’s victory,
- In another bookmaker you take advantage of the promotion and make a Free Bet bet of 100 rubles with odds of 3.6 on a Bournemouth win or a draw with the bookmaker’s money.
For any outcome we have about 40% profit
A similar scheme can be done with Cash-Back offers and other similar bookmaker promotions.
Important: always carefully read all the terms of the promotion, because it may turn out that in the pursuit of profit you will not notice the main thing, which is always hidden behind the asterisks. For example, to withdraw the money you have won, you need to scroll the amount in your account 3 more times. But this is also not a problem, how to get out of this situation further.
Negative arbs are often used as an alternative to regular arbs when they do not appear to wager bonus funds (wager). That is, they help to scroll through funds the required number of times without significant losses.
Unclear? Example: you registered with a bookmaker and the bookmaker happily gave you a $200 bonus for replenishing your deposit. But he put them not on your real account, but on the bonus one. Having set the condition: that they will be transferred to real money when the turnover of funds in bets is $2000, and the coefficient must not be lower than 2.0. The question arises: how to make such a turnover without the risk of losing your hard-earned money? The answer to it can be a fork, and if there is none (after all, you are limited in the choice of bookmaker and odds), then a negative fork (for lack of fish and cancer fish), which will allow you to unscrew the required amount with minimal loss.
Additionally
And finally, if there is not enough information, a video from YouTube: arbs on sports betting in bookmaker
The way bookmakers operate is designed in such a way that it is almost impossible to win over a long period of time. One of the few strategies that allows you to constantly win on bets is bookmaker sure bets. When using this betting method, the player does not need to follow the course of events, because in the end, despite the outcome of the match, he will still receive his winnings.
Note! Bookmakers classify sure betting as fraud on the part of players, so those who use this strategy usually face sanctions, such as cancellation of winnings and/or blocking of the gaming account.
Forks in bookmakers: description of strategy
A bookmaker's sure bet is considered to be a case in which the odds at two different bookmakers for opposite outcomes of one event are set in such a way that you can bet on both and win regardless of the outcome.
Due to great competition, bookmakers are sometimes forced to inflate odds so that they compare favorably with competitors’ quotes and are more attractive to bettors. It is in such cases that a situation may arise when the odds are set for two opposite outcomes in such a way that if you bet on both of these outcomes (and if any of them wins), you can be in the black.
Examples of opposite outcomes:
- P1 - P2: victory of team 1 and victory of team 2 (mainly relevant in single sports).
- TM (2.5)- TB (2.5): total less than 2.5 goals and total more than 2.5 goals.
- F1 (-1.5) - F2 (+1.5): minus handicap of team 1 and plus handicap of team 2 with the same value.
Let’s say that on the eve of a football match, one bookmaker gives a bet of TB 2.5 (total over 2.5 goals) with odds of 2.11, and another gives the opposite bet of TM 2.5 (total less than 2.5 goals) with odds of 2.07. This is exactly the case when, with any number of goals in the match (TO 2.5 or TM 2.5), the player who bet on both outcomes will remain with a profit.
Search for arbs in bookmakers
When arbing took off, people manually worked out odds differences by calculating bet amounts on a simple calculator. Today you can find a fork either independently or with the help of special services. You can understand whether there is a fork in front of you or not using the formula.
KF1- coefficient for the first outcome
KF2- odds for the second outcome
IN- fork value must be less than 1
If the value of B is less than one (B<1), то перед нами букмекерская вилка. Если значение В больше единицы (В>1), then no.
Using an example, let's look at the odds for a tennis event for the presence of a bookmaker's sure bet. Let’s say that the odds for Djokovic’s victory in the match against Nadal are 2.43. Another bookmaker estimates Nadal's odds of success at 1.84. Substitute the values into the formula:
B = 0.95, this is less than one, which means that we have a value that allows us to “fork”.
However, today bookmaker surebing calculators and other services are actively used, allowing one to determine both the value of the surebt and the required amounts for both bets without using formulas independently.
You can also search for sure bets at bookmakers using special programs that automatically scan bookmaker sites.
How to play on bookmaker's sure bets
In order to play on the fork found, it is necessary to determine the size of the bets on the selected opposite events. To do this, you can use either an online bookmaker surebets calculator or the formula:
(1: CF: B) x B = C
KF- odds for the outcome (CF1 or CF2)
IN- fork value
B- the bank allocated for playing on this particular fork
WITH- bet size (calculate C1 and C2 one by one)
Let's look at the example of “forking” the totals mentioned above, when on TB 2.5 we have a coefficient of 2.11, and on TM 2.5 - 2.07. Let's assume that our bank for playing on this particular bookmaker's sure bet is 100 USD. e. First, we calculate the value of the fork: (1: 2.11) + (1: 2.07) = 0.957. That is, B = 0.957.
We sequentially calculate the bet sizes for both outcomes, substituting the required values into the formula:
(1: 2.11: 0.957) × 100 = 49,52 u. e. - the size of the bet on “total over” for odds 2.11.
(1: 2.07: 0.957) × 100 = 50,48 u. e. - the size of the bet on “total under” for odds 2.07.
Thus, if the “total over” wins, the player will receive: 49.52 × 2.11 = 104.49 USD. e.
If the “under total” wins, the player will receive: 50.48 × 2.07 = 104.49 USD. e.
For any of the outcomes in this fork, the player receives a profit of 4.49 USD. e.
Live forks
In addition to the forks that form before the match, players monitor changes in quotes in real time. Live sure bets are more convenient because the percentage of net profit is much higher. Moreover, it is more difficult for bookmakers to track arbers during this period. However, this method of play has its drawbacks: in the “live” mode, the odds change very quickly, so you may not have time to place a bet. Otherwise, the game on sure bets in live mode is the same as in pre-match mode (before the start of the event).
Pros and cons of playing for sure in bookmakers
The main advantage of arbing, as already mentioned, is the player’s profit for any outcome of the sporting event. However, there is also a disadvantage that you need to know about before you decide to look for an arb in bookmakers.
Arbing is strictly prohibited by all bookmakers. A player who uses forks risks being left with nothing. To prevent dishonest earnings from players, bookmakers have entire groups of specialists who monitor account activity. If there is even the slightest suspicion that a player is playing for sure, the account is immediately blocked until the circumstances are clarified. For the most part, bookmakers simply cut the maximum bet amounts and cancel winnings.
Bookmakers set odds on sporting events in such a way as to have some advantage over the players. Such superiority of bookmakers is margin. This is a guaranteed percentage of profit included by bookmakers when calculating odds. The margin percentage varies, and the higher the margin, the lower the odds and the greater the advantage of the bookmaker over the better.
We can say that the margin is an additional probability added to the initial sum of the probabilities of the outcome of the match. That is, without a margin the sum of the probabilities of outcomes will be 100%, and with a margin more than one hundred percent.
In order to convert the coefficient into a probability indicator, you need divide one by the coefficient value. Without margin, the odds on an event of two outcomes with equal probability will be 2.00 and 2.00. If you divide 1 by 2.00, you get 50%, and 50 + 50 = 100%. But taking into account the margin at bookmakers, the odds will be 1.96 and 1.96, for example. Then the sum of the probabilities will be: 1/1.96 = 0.510, and 0.510 + 0.510 = 102%.
That is, each coefficient can be converted into a probability. If you see a coefficient of 1.50 at a bookmaker’s office, it means, according to bookmaker analysts, the probability is 1/1.50 = 0.66, which is equal to 66%.
If the sum of the probabilities of outcomes is more than 100%, and this number is always above one hundred percent, then the bookmaker has an advantage. In the above example, the superiority of the bookmaker is 2%, since 102% – 100% = 2. As noted, the indicator is always greater than 100%, but this is only if we sum up the probability of the outcomes of a particular match in one bookmaker.
However, if you look for the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes of one match in different bookmakers, you may end up with an indicator below 100%. And under such circumstances we are dealing with a fork.
Let's imagine that we found a sure bet on our own or with the help of a special service, the object of which is a bet TB(3.5)/TM(3.5) on a football match. At the Sbobet bookmaker we can bet on TB(3.5) at odds of 1.77, and at Pinnacle on TM(3.5) at odds of 2.43. We consider: 1/1.77 + 1/2.43 = 0.565 + 0.411 = 0.976, that is 97.6 % . The profitability of the fork is 2.4 % , because 100 – 97.6 = 2.4.
And now you need to correctly distribute the money between the two bets. To do this, you need to multiply the amount of the first bet by the odds of the first outcome, and then divide the resulting number by the odds of the second outcome.
This means that if we bet 300 dollars on TB(3.5) in Sbobet, then in Pinnacle on TM(3.5) we need to bet: 300? 1.77/ 2.43 = 218.5 dollars. The total bet was 300 + 218.5 = 518.5 dollars.
If the match total is more than 3.5, then the bet in Sbobet will win and the net profit will be 300? 1.77 – 518.5 = 12.5. And in the case of a total less than 3.5, the net income is 218.5? 2.43 – 518.5 = 12.45 dollars. As you can see, for any outcome the player wins 12.5 dollars. Someone will say that the gain is insignificant with such investments, and they will be right, but there are no risks.
Trying to beat the bookmaker and earn more money, players use a variety of techniques in order to increase their own capital and minimize possible risks. One of these methods is sure bets in bookmakers.
Fork, or an arbitrage situation is a sports betting strategy, the essence of which is to bet on various outcomes in order to be guaranteed to make a profit or not to lose.
Fork– several bets from different bookmakers on one event, in which the player, regardless of the result of the match, earns or, at a minimum, does not lose anything.
Forks– bets on opposite outcomes, which in any case allow you to earn or at least not lose part of the bank on a deal with a bookmaker.
Forks are formed due to the difference in odds in different offices. Sometimes companies do not have time to notice changes in quotes from competitors.
How to find forks?
The most tedious way- this is to monitor the lines of many companies in order to identify discrepancies in quotes. This method is no longer relevant, as it takes too much time and does not always give the expected result.
On the Internet they came up with the idea of searching for sure bets arb scanners– special services or programs that scan bookmaker sites automatically and, thanks to scripts, detect forks.
Flaw The point is that they are paid, but almost every one of these resources provides surebets for free, but their profitability is limited to one percent. Some offer arbs of more than 1%, but for a trial period.
Best services:
Popular programs (scanners):
- RebelBetting;
- TheForks (service for professionals, review).
Fork shoulders
Fork shoulders– these are the betting options that form fork.
Fork shoulders- these are different outcomes of a certain event on which a bet is made.
Forks in bookmakers they do not always bring the same amount of income from each shoulder. The player independently distributes the amount of bets so as to earn more for a given result. The main thing is not to go into the red, that is, not to lose money.
Fork example
Consider the recent match between Chelsea and Tottenham. The level of the teams is approximately the same; there should not be a strong spread in the quotes. Each office has its own odds for outcomes, but in general the picture is similar:
- The Betting League distributed the odds as follows: Chelsea win – 2.1, draw – 3.2 and Tottenham win – 4.6;
- Fonbet offers the following odds: W1 – 2.6, draw – 3.1, W2 – 4.1;
- Leon assessed the strength of the clubs as follows: Chelsea's win - 2.5, draw - 3.4, Tottenham's triumph - 4.2.
Such a difference in odds may allow you to make guaranteed money, but for this you need to correctly calculate the size of each bet (the amount of the bet on each arm) and conclude them in a timely manner.
How to identify a fork?
There are various scanners and special programs to search for sure bets, but most often they are paid. There is almost no high-quality software in the public domain, so we will use the formula:
B = 1/ K1 + 1/ K2 + 1/ K3… + 1/ Kn, Where:
- B – value indicating the presence or absence of a fork;
- K1, K2, K3, Kn – coefficients for mutually exclusive events.
If the value of B<1 – вилка есть, а если B>1 – no plug.
From the example above, we take the most favorable odds - P1 for 2.6 from Fonbet, a draw for 3.4 from Leon and P2 for 4.2 from the Betting League. Substitute the numbers into the formula.
B = 1 / 2.6 + 1/ 3.4 + 1 / 4.2 = 0.91, that is, 0.91<1, значит, вилка есть (числа округлены).
How to determine the profitability of a fork?
Profitability is calculated using the following formula:
Yield in % = 100 – (B * 100).
In our example it is: 100 – (0.91 * 100) = 9%. This means that the fork will bring 9% profit.
How to calculate the bet amount for an arb?
For the correct distribution of amounts to fork shoulders There are surebets calculators, but you can also use the formula:
P= (1/ K/ B) * C, Where:
- P – bet amount on the outcome;
- K – coefficient for the outcome;
- B – fork value;
- C – the amount of bets on the event that you have allocated for the arb.
For example, for the above arb (Chelsea - Tottenham match) I have 1000 rubles (in the formula this is C). We calculate the bet amount for each outcome:
– on P1 we set: 1 / 2.6 / 0.91 * 1000 = 422.65 rubles;
– on H we set: 1 / 3.4 / 0.91 * 1000 = 323.20 rubles;
– on P2 we set: 1 / 4.2 / 0.91 * 1000 = 261.64 rubles.
Let's consider possible options for how the fight will end:
– P1: 422.65 rub. * coefficient 2.6 = 1098.89, net profit = 98.89 rubles.
– N: 323.20 rub. * coefficient 3.4 = 1098.88, net profit = 98.88 rubles.
– P2: 261.64 rub. * coefficient 4.2 = 1098.88, net profit = 98.88 rubles.
Regardless of the result of the match, we would have earned almost 100 rubles without risking anything.
To get more profit, distribute your money on bets so that betting on the most likely result (the favorite wins) brings more earnings, and a bet on the less likely result (the underdog wins) simply returns the money bet.
Arb calculator
This tool not only simplifies calculations, but also saves time, which I think is very important. This is exactly what a fork calculator is for. In addition, when you manually count dozens, or even hundreds of times every day, your brain explodes, there are only numbers in front of your eyes, and only numbers in your thoughts.
A convenient, understandable and simple calculator is provided by the PlayBookmaker resource. There is no need to download anything - the calculator is available online (to open, click ). Select the type of bet, enter the odds and the amount allocated for this bet - the system itself will give you the bet amount for each outcome and profit (profitability). The result was the same thing that we calculated using the formula, only with greater accuracy (to every penny, without rounding) and much faster.
Types of forks
Sports forks– these are not only bets on the outcome of the match, but also on other mutually exclusive markets, for example:
- TB/TM;
- Ф1(-2.5) / Ф2(+2.5);
- Ф1(0) / Ф2(0);
- P1/X2;
- TB(2) / TM (2.5) / TM (1.5) – a refund is possible for one of the TB (2) outcomes. If the score is 2:0 (1:1, 0:2), there will be one bet return, but TM (2.5) will win. Although the bet TM (1.5) will lose, we will still be in the black if we placed the fork correctly.
Forks can be sorted by the number of possible outcomes:
- two arms (outcomes) – these are sports where a draw is impossible, TB/TM, mutually exclusive handicaps;
- three arms (outcomes) – team sports, most often football, because a draw in basketball, although possible, is rare;
- four arms (outcomes) – for example, the exact score in a tennis match (2:0, 0:2, 2:1 and 1:2);
- six-way fork - the same tennis matches, if the game can consist of five sets, or volleyball matches (3:0, 0:3, 3:1, 1:3, 3:2 and 2:3).
Incomplete forks
Incomplete forks– these are bets on events from three possible outcomes, in which one outcome, the least likely, does not overlap. This type of forks does not guarantee a 100% win, since the risk of losing two bets is present, albeit insignificant.
Example incomplete fork in the match Atalanta - Juventus:
- Fonbet set the following odds: P1 – 5.55, X – 3.85, P2 – 1.55;
- Leon offers the following quotes: P1 – 5.75, X – 3.65, P2 – 1.65.
A victory for Atalanta is an unlikely result, so we discard this bet and bet only on W2 and a draw. For a Juventus win, we take Leon’s odds, since it is higher, and for a draw, we take Fonbet’s odds.
We calculate the bet amount using the formula given above.
Cons of the strategy is that there is a chance to lose two bets and earn nothing. Plus is a greater income if one of the two selected outcomes occurs.
Arbs between online and offline bookmakers
There are situations when forks can form between the website of one office and the betting point of another.
The difficulty lies in the search - you cannot regularly visit bookmaker offices, find out the odds for the entire line and compare with other land-based or online bookmakers. This takes time, and such activities may not bring the expected results.
Live sure bets
Surebets in live mode have their advantages, the main of which are the presence of more profitable sure bets, and the fact that it is more difficult for the bookmaker to identify the sure bettor if he bets live. In addition, in live, as a rule, there are more forks and they appear much more often.
Flawsliveforks lies in the lack of free, high-quality programs for identifying surebets in live situations. Therefore, it is necessary to study various events in different bookmakers for a long time and constantly in order to find a sure bet and place appropriate bets. And this takes a lot of time.
One of the main disadvantages of such arbs is that you may not have time to place a bet - the odds often change, especially if the match is dynamic and there is a “swing” in it (one or the other team has an advantage). Unfortunately, live arbs, especially highly profitable ones, do not “live” for long - you need to have time to find them and place appropriate bets.
It is advisable to exclude sure bets for the same game in the same bookmaker’s office. It’s better to place these bets, but with different bookmakers. Often in tennis matches, the odds initially for one tennis player are 2.5, and for his opponent – 1.5 (for example). Since one or another athlete may take the lead in a match, the quotes change dramatically. If the first player, odds. which was 2.5 comes out ahead, then the odds. per losing player increases from 1.5 to 2.1 (for example). This is one example of how easy it is to catch arbs in live.
How to manage to place forks on the shoulder in live?
The advice is very simple, but useful.
First of all, you need to bet on an outcome that cannot be won back. For example, if the score is 1:1 and a TB (2.5) / TM (2.5) fork has formed, then bet on TB (2.5) first. If you bet TM (2.5) in one bookmaker, then while you are completing a deal in another bookmaker on TB (2.5), the teams may score a goal and you will lose.
If first of all you bet on TB (2.5) and the teams scored a goal, then nothing bad will happen. Although you won’t bet a fork, you don’t need one, because you’ve already won. Everything must be done promptly, because as the fight progresses, the quotes on TM will decrease.
Why do forks appear?
There may be several reasons why forks come from:
- Competition between offices – the higher the odds compared to competitors, the more clients;
- The inability to monitor the movement of quotes from all bookmakers in the world, and there are a lot of them;
- Difference of opinion - major bookmakers who independently form the line have their own analytical department consisting of experts who set the initial value of the odds;
- Professional players betting huge amounts;
- Manipulation of the bookmakers themselves to create forks.
I want to talk about the last two points in more detail. There are bookmakers that block arbers (we’ll look at how not to give yourself away and avoid a bookmaker’s ban for playing on arbs below), but there are also those that treat them acceptably.
Let's imagine a match where there is a clear favorite and an underdog. The odds for the favorite to win are 1.3, and for the underdog to triumph – 6.0. And then the pros appear who have done a competent analysis or received insider information about the favorite’s 100% win. They place bets on this event in large bookmakers (for greater security). There is a sharp imbalance in the odds in this office, and now on P1 instead of 1.3 they give 1.2, and on P2 instead of 6.0 they give 7.0. Thus, an arb with small offices appears, in which arbers begin to execute transactions.
The following happens:
- players place a bet on the favorite in another office - let's call it a donor;
- bets on an outsider are placed with a major bookmaker.
As a result, it turns out that a large bookmaker accepts bets on a less likely outcome, and the donor company accepts bets on a more likely outcome. It turns out that users lose part of the amount in a large bookmaker (it makes a profit, which is why it created the arb, perhaps on purpose), but in return they win in another office, which calculates the winning bets for the arbers.
Dangers when using forks
Forks are risk-free bets, but in reality there are pitfalls everywhere.
Maximum limits. If the game is successful, the office has the right to reduce the amount of the maximum bet - sure bets will become almost useless, since they will bring in pennies.
Line error. Bookmakers can use such a clause in the rules, indicating an error by employees or software in setting quotes. The bet is calculated based on the return, which does not make the strategy a win-win.
Change of odds. When placing one bet, the odds for the opposite one may change and the sure bet will disappear. It is important to place bets almost simultaneously.
Freezing bets– when, having made one bet, it is not possible to place the next one due to the fact that the bookmaker has suspended accepting bets (as a rule, this happens in live, but this is also possible in pre-match).
Taxation, commission on withdrawal of funds. If you do not have a significant capital, the profit from sure bets will not be large. Moreover, it’s not so big that it will be “eaten up” by a withdrawal commission or a tax of 13%.
BC rules. Each bookmaker has their own. So, if a tennis player is injured, one office can issue a refund, and the second can count the loss.
Account blocking. The bookmaker may interpret sure bets as “unfair play,” which leads to account blocking and possibly confiscation of funds.
How to place sure bets without being figured out?
Don't bet the whole bank.
By betting your maximum deposit on one event, especially regularly, this indicates to the bookmaker that you are confident in the outcome. This is not typical behavior for the average user.
In addition, you will constantly have to redistribute funds between the accounts of different offices, because one of them will always have a zero balance. And these are additional commissions when transferring funds.
Simulate the game of a regular client as much as possible.
Round up your bet amounts.
Bets of 945.55 or 2477 rubles look suspicious.
Avoid fatty forks.
Do not place bets on highly profitable sure bets. Most likely, the bet will be canceled and the bookmaker will report a typo in the line.
Perhaps such a fork was formed on purpose in order to catch a portion of arbers and observe them more carefully.
Deposit, withdrawal of funds.
Deposit and withdraw money less frequently. As a rule, an ordinary player accumulates money on his balance rather than withdrawing it after each bet.
Double check.
Before placing a bet, double-check the value of the quotes - scanners and programs may make mistakes.
Bet on famous events.
Choose popular championships and tournaments. Agree that large bets on the second division of football in Kenya and city darts competitions in Denmark look very strange.
UseVPNand proxy.
I recommend using different devices for scanners and bets in bookmakers, so that nothing gives you away as an arber: neither cache nor browser cookies. Your bill may be cut, but using a proxy or VPN will not give away your IP address and you will not be under surveillance.
Is it legal to play for sure?
From a legal point of view, arbs in bookmakers are completely legal, just like regular interactive bets.
The office offers an odd, and you agree with it by placing a bet. It is not prohibited to make money in this way in a bookmaker, although most bookmakers have a negative attitude towards arbers and hinder them in every possible way.
If sure bets are profitable, why are so few people doing them?
Firstly, not many people know about them.
Secondly, few people believe that they can make money this way.
Thirdly, each method of making money on bets has its own disadvantages and risks.
Fourthly, an impressive initial capital is required for significant profits.
How much can you earn on sure bets?
Specific numbers depend on money turnover: the larger it is, the higher the income.
The number of sure bets placed also affects the level of earnings. On average, you can receive 10-15% per month from your bankroll consistently.
The time investment is small - a few hours a day, but again, if you want to increase profits, then spend more time searching for sure bets, or use paid software. Believe me, if you notice a good increase in your initial deposit, you will involuntarily begin to devote more time to arbitrage.
The best bookmakers for arbs
Play in legal bookmakers, although you can use foreign giants if you are outside of Russia. For example, Pinnacle and Sbobet are suitable.
Use to choose the most suitable companies. Avoid suspicious and unreliable companies.
Pros and cons of forks
Serious turnover of money in several offices. If this point is not met, sure bets lose any meaning, since they are not worth the time costs and risks. It’s stupid to bet 10-20 thousand rubles to get 100-200.
Offices do not like arbers and hunt for them. The client may be prohibited from placing a bet, but this is still good, because at least the deposit is returned. Unfortunately, most bookmakers block the accounts of arbers and the money is either not returned to them, or the payment process is delayed for several months. The rules of the office are structured in such a way that it can refer to several points and cancel the payment. You will only have to prove your case in court. Office security departments were formed for a reason.
Guaranteed Win Regardless of the outcome of the event, this is the only plus. Surebets are precisely for making money. Nothing more is needed.
Conclusion. Was it worth putting forks?
Forks– this is a tedious task that requires a lot of time to identify an arbitrage situation. Also you need decent gaming bank, distributed in several offices. Despite the fact that there is a risk of being blocked, arbs are almost win-win bets if you choose reliable bookmakers, do not impersonate the arber, and bet correctly.
For many, making money on sure bets is the only way to make a profit from a bookmaker, which is what players use. But it is not recommended to get carried away with sure bets - find a middle ground, and then even such an activity will bring a stable income.
