A quantitative expression of the fact that as a result of a decision being made, the expected income will not be received in full or business resources will be completely or partially lost is the risk indicator.

A system of risk assessment indicators is a set of interrelated indicators aimed at solving specific problems entrepreneurial activity.

Under conditions of certainty, the group of risk assessment indicators includes financial indicators that reflect the availability, placement and use financial resources and thereby make it possible to assess the risk of consequences of the company's performance. The company's financial statements are used as initial information when assessing risk: a balance sheet that records the property and financial position of the organization as of the reporting date; An income statement presenting the results of operations for an accounting period. The main financial risks assessed by companies are as follows:

-risks of loss of solvency;
-risks of loss of financial stability and independence;
-risks of the structure of assets and liabilities.

For enterprises engaged in production, a general indicator of financial stability is the surplus or shortage of sources of funds for the formation of inventories and costs, which is determined as the difference in the amount of sources of funds and the amount of inventories and costs.

The assessment of liquidity and financial stability risks using relative indicators is carried out by analyzing deviations from the recommended values. Calculation of coefficients is presented in tables 1 and 2.

Table 1 - Financial liquidity ratios

Index		A comment
1. General indicator liquidity		Shows the company’s ability to make payments on all types of obligations - both immediate and remote
2. Absolute liquidity ratio	L 2 > 0.2-0.7	Shows what part of the short-term debt the organization can repay in the near future using cash
3. Critical evaluation factor	Acceptable 0.7-0.8; preferably	Shows what part of the organization's short-term obligations can be immediately repaid using funds in various accounts, short-term securities, as well as settlement proceeds
4. Current ratio	Optimal - at least 2.0	Shows what part of current obligations on loans and settlements can be repaid by mobilizing all working capital
5. Operating capital maneuverability coefficient	A decrease in the indicator in dynamics is a positive fact	Shows what part of the operating capital is immobilized in inventories and long-term receivables
6. Equity ratio	Not less than 0.1	Characterizes the availability of the organization’s own working capital necessary for its financial stability

Table 2 - Financial ratios used to assess the financial stability of the company

Index		A comment
1. Autonomy coefficient	The minimum threshold value is at the level of 0.4. Excess indicates an increase in financial independence, expanding the possibility of attracting funds from outside	Characterizes independence from borrowed funds
2. Debt to equity ratio	U 2< 1,5. Превышение указанной границы означает зависимость предприятия от external sources funds, loss of financial stability (autonomy)	Shows how much borrowed funds the company attracted per 1 ruble of its own funds invested in assets
3. Equity ratio	U 3 > 0.1. The higher the indicator (0.5), the better the financial condition of the enterprise	Illustrates the presence of the enterprise's own working capital necessary for its financial stability
4. Financial stability ratio	U 4 > 0.6. A decrease in indicators indicates that the company is experiencing financial difficulties	Shows how much of an asset is financed from sustainable sources

The essence of the methodology for a comprehensive (score) assessment of the financial condition of an organization is to classify organizations according to the level of financial risk, that is, any organization can be assigned to a certain class depending on the number of points scored, based on the actual values of its financial ratios. The integral score of the organization's financial condition is presented in Table 3.

Table 3 - Integral score of the financial condition of the organization

Index	Criterion	Conditions for reducing the criterion

1. Absolute liquidity ratio (L2)		0.5 and above -- 20 points	Less than 0.1 -- 0 points	For every 0.1 point reduction compared to 0.5, 4 points are deducted
2. “Critical evaluation” coefficient (L3)		1.5 and above -- 18 points		For every 0.1 point reduction compared to 1.5, 3 points are deducted
3. Current ratio (L4)		2 and above -- 16.5 points		For every 0.1 point reduction in compared to 2, 1.5 points are deducted
4. Autonomy coefficient (U1)		0.5 and above -- 17 points	Less than 0.4 -- 0 points	For every 0.1 point reduction compared to 0.5, 0.8 points are deducted
5. Equity ratio (U3)		0.5 and above -- 15 points	Less than 0.1 -- 0 points	For every 0.1 point reduction compared to 0.5, 3 points are deducted
6. Financial stability coefficient (U4)		0.8 and above -- 13.5 points	Less than 0.5 -- 0 points	For every 0.1 point reduction compared to 0.8, 2.5 points are deducted

1st class (100-97 points) are organizations with absolute financial stability and absolutely solvent. They have a rational property structure and, as a rule, are profitable.
2nd class (96-67 points) - these are organizations in normal financial condition. Their financial indicators are quite close to optimal, but there is a certain lag in certain ratios. Profitable organizations.
3rd class (66-37 points) are organizations whose financial condition can be assessed as average. When analyzing the balance sheet, the weakness of individual financial indicators is revealed. Solvency is on the border of the minimum acceptable level, and financial stability is normal. When dealing with such organizations, there is hardly a threat of loss of funds, but their fulfillment of obligations on time seems doubtful.
4th grade (36-11 points) - these are organizations with unstable financial condition. There is a certain financial risk when dealing with them. They have an unsatisfactory capital structure, and their solvency is at the lower limit of what is acceptable. Profit is usually absent or insignificant.
5th grade (10-0 points) - these are organizations with a financial crisis. They are insolvent and completely unsustainable from a financial point of view. Such organizations are unprofitable.

There is a concept of the degree of risk of the enterprise as a whole. The degree of risk of an enterprise's activities depends on the ratio of its sales revenue and profit, as well as on the ratio of the total amount of profit with the same amount, but reduced by the amount of mandatory expenses and payments from profit, the size of which does not depend on the size of the profit itself.

The ratio of sales revenue (or revenue minus variable costs) and sales profit is called “operating leverage” and characterizes the degree of risk of the enterprise when sales revenue decreases.

The general formula by which one can determine the level of operating leverage with a simultaneous reduction in prices and physical volume is as follows:

R1 = (R2 x Ic + R3 x In): Iv (1)

where L1 is the level of operating leverage;

L2 is the level of operating leverage when sales revenue decreases due to price reductions;

L3 - level of operating leverage with a decrease in sales revenue due to a decrease in the natural volume of sales;

Ic - price reduction (as a percentage of basic sales revenue);

In - reduction in natural sales volume (as a percentage of basic sales revenue);

Yves - decrease in sales revenue (in percent).

It is possible that a drop in sales revenue occurs as a result of a decrease in prices with a simultaneous increase in the physical volume of sales. In this case, the formula is converted to another:

R1 = (R2 x Ic -- R3 x In): Iv (2)

Another option. Sales revenue decreases as prices rise and physical sales volume declines. The formula for these conditions takes the following form:

R1 = (R3 x In - R2 x Ic): Yves (3)

Thus, the level of operating leverage is measured and assessed differently depending on what factors may result in a decrease in sales revenue: only as a result of lower prices, only as a result of a decrease in physical sales volume, or, what is much more realistic, due to a combination of both of these factors. Knowing this, you can regulate the degree of risk, using each factor to one degree or another, depending on the specific conditions of the enterprise.

Unlike operational leverage, financial leverage aims to measure not the level of risk that arises in the process of an enterprise selling its products (works, services), but the level of risk associated with the insufficiency of profit remaining at the disposal of the enterprise. In other words, we are talking about the risk of not paying off obligations, the source of payment of which is profit. When considering this issue, it is important to consider several circumstances. Firstly, such a risk arises in the event of a decrease in the profit of the enterprise. The dynamics of profit does not always depend on the dynamics of sales revenue. In addition, the enterprise generates its profit not only from sales, but also from other types of activities (other operating and other non-operating income and expenses, income from participation in other organizations, etc.).

When we talk about the sufficiency or insufficiency of profit as a source of certain payments, about the risk of a decrease in this source, all profit must be taken into account, and not just profit from sales. The source of expenses and payments from profit is its entire amount, regardless of the method by which the profit was obtained.

total amount The profit of the enterprise is primarily reduced by the amount of income tax. The amount remaining at the disposal of the enterprise after this can be used for various purposes. In this case, it is not the specific areas of spending profits that matter, but the nature of these expenses.

The risk is generated by the fact that among the expenses and payments from profit there are those that must be made without fail, regardless of the amount of profit and, in general, its presence or absence.

Such expenses include:

-dividends on preferred shares and interest on bonds issued by the enterprise;
-interest for bank loans in the part paid from profits. This includes: the amount of interest on bank loans received to compensate for the lack of working capital (this loan is targeted and issued under a special loan agreement with a bank establishment). The agreement stipulates specific conditions for issuing a loan and the measures that the enterprise must take to restore the required amount working capital;
- interest on loans for the purchase of fixed assets, intangible and other non-current assets;
- the amount of interest paid on funds borrowed from other enterprises and organizations;
-penalties to be included in the budget. This includes fines and costs for damages resulting from non-compliance with security requirements environment; fines for receiving unjustified profits due to inflated prices, concealment or understatement of profits and other objects of taxation; other types of penalties to be included in the budget.

The greater these and other expenses of a similar nature, the greater the risk of the enterprise. The risk is that if the amount of profit decreases to a certain extent, the profit remaining after paying all mandatory payments, will decrease by much to a greater extent, up to the appearance of a negative value of this part of the profit.

The degree of financial risk is measured by dividing profit minus income tax to the profit remaining at the disposal of the enterprise, minus mandatory expenses and payments from it that do not depend on the amount of profit. This indicator is called financial leverage. The higher the basic ratio of the above values, the higher the financial risk.

Operational and financial leverage allow us to give a unified assessment of the financial risk of an enterprise. Let us introduce the following notation:

Lo - operating leverage;

Lf - financial leverage;

B - sales revenue;

Per - variable costs;

Pch - net profit;

Ps - free profit;

Pr - profit from sales.

Then Lo = B / Pr or (B - Per) / Pr;

Lf = Pch / Ps.

If you enter k = Pr / Pch, then both formulas can be combined into one:

Lo x Lf = (V / Pr) x (Pr / (k x Ps)) = V / k x Ps

Lo x Lf = (B - Per) / (k x Ps) (4)

Consequently, the overall risk of not receiving sufficient amounts of free profit is higher, the lower the variable costs, the lower the net profit compared to the profit from sales (i.e., the greater the “k”) and the smaller the amount of free profit, i.e. net profit minus mandatory expenses and payments from it.

Thus, financial risks are speculative risks for which both positive and negative results are possible. Their peculiarity is the likelihood of damage as a result of such operations, which by their nature are risky. Financial risk management is based on a targeted search and organization of work to assess, avoid, retain, transfer and reduce the degree of risk. The ultimate goal of financial risk management is to obtain the greatest profit with an optimal profit-risk ratio acceptable for the enterprise. All types of financial risks can be quantified. The characteristics of different types of risks require different approaches to their quantitative assessment.

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Essay

Assessment and analysisfrom the financial risks of the organization

Introduction

management financial risk

The goal of entrepreneurship is to obtain maximum income with minimal capital expenditure in a competitive environment.

The implementation of this goal requires the comparison of the size of capital invested in production and trading activities with the financial results of this activity.

At the same time, when carrying out any type of economic activity, there is an objective danger - the “risk” of losses, the volume of which is determined by the specifics of a particular business. Risk is the likelihood of losses, damages, shortfalls in planned income and profit.

If such an event occurs, three fundamentally different results are possible:

Profit

Null result

Of course, risk can be managed, i.e. take measures to predict the occurrence of a risk event and further develop a set of measures to reduce the degree of risk or reduce its negative consequences.

A feature of financial risk is the likelihood of damage as a result of any transactions in the financial, credit and exchange spheres, transactions with stock securities, i.e. risk that arises from the nature of these operations.

To get used to modern conditions, and even at the end of the international financial crisis, companies should assess their capabilities to ensure their existence in the market. The main structure in a company that should be assessed from all sides is the assessment of the company's financial risks.

In modern times, assessing a company’s financial risks is a fairly relevant topic.

The relevance of the topic boils down to the following: assessing financial risks will allow the company to survive in the market for its services or goods or work. Also, the relevance of the stated topic in terms of the stability of the company, the possible regulation of its losses in the financial part, and subsequently the assessment of financial risks will allow you to effectively carry out work on personnel management in your company.

An assessment of the financial condition can be performed with varying degrees of detail depending on the purpose of the analysis, available information, software, technical and personnel support. The most appropriate is to separate the procedures for express analysis and in-depth analysis of financial condition.

1. Risk system

In accordance with civil law Russian Federation the risk of accidental loss and damage to property is borne by its owner, unless otherwise provided by law or contract. However, each type of transaction has its own nuances, determined by the specifics of certain contractual relationships. This gives rise to situations where a party to a transaction bears the risk of loss or damage to an item without being its owner.

The concept of “risk”, depending on the subject area, has various interpretations. The most common definitions are as follows.

Risk is the possibility of danger, failure, loss, or acting at random in the hope of a happy outcome. In business activities, losses from risk can be:

· material (buildings, structures, materials, raw materials);

· labor (loss of working time, departure of qualified workers, etc.);

· financial (unforeseen fines);

· special (causing harm to the health of a citizen, the environment, etc.).

Risk (Greek risikon - cliff) is a situational characteristic of an activity, consisting in the uncertainty of its outcome and possible adverse consequences in case of failure.

Risk is the probability of an unfavorable event that may occur and as a result of which losses may occur: actual damage or lost profits (lost income).

Thus, the concept of risk consists of the following main elements:

1) the possibility of deviation from the intended goal for the sake of which the chosen alternative was implemented. The result of the chosen behavior may turn out to be completely different from what is expected;

2) achieving the desired goal has a certain probability, i.e. the goal can ultimately be achieved;

3) lack of confidence in achieving a set goal, when it is not known in advance whether this goal will be achieved;

Predictability of possible risks is carried out in stages:

1) internal and external factors influencing a specific type of risk are identified;

2) an analysis of the identified factors is carried out;

3) assessment is carried out specific type risk, the financial condition of the project is determined, as well as the economic feasibility of participation in it;

4) an acceptable level of risk is established;

5) the selected risk level is analyzed;

6) with participation in the project, measures to reduce risk are developed.

It is important to note that risks can be caused by various factors, and therefore they can be divided into internal and external.

Internal factors include:

· non-compliance with the legislation of the Russian Federation;

· violation of contract terms;

· insufficient elaboration of legal issues;

· inconsistency of internal documents with the legislation of the Russian Federation;

· ineffective organization of legal work.

External factors of legal risk include:

· changes in legislation during the transaction;

· imperfection of the legal system;

· violations of contract terms by clients and counterparties;

· location of the company, its branches, subsidiaries and affiliates, clients and counterparties under the jurisdiction of various states.

The main reason for the emergence of risks in international business is systemic multi-level uncertainty, which is generated by:

1) instability difficult to predict in reality economic processes both at the level of national economies and at the level of the global economy;

2) counteractions that arise in cases of violation of contractual obligations by foreign partners;

3) the variability of the dispute and the difficulties of marketing goods in an expanded spatial and temporal framework;

4) the probabilistic nature of scientific and technological progress and its ambiguous consequences for world economic relations;

Risks related to foreign trade transactions are, first of all, risks associated with foreign market conditions, the activities of a foreign counterparty, and political and military factors.

These risks include:

· credit risk - the risk of failure by one party to fulfill obligations under an agreement and the other party incurring losses in connection with this;

· commodity risk - a risk resulting from unfavorable changes in prices for goods, changes in the ratio of prices for goods;

· commercial risk - the risk associated with the fact that a foreign debtor cannot repay the debt for any reason.

Currency risk is the risk of losses from unexpected changes in exchange rates. The following types of currency risks are distinguished:

Conversion risk. Occurs when it is impossible for the importer to exchange national currency for foreign currency agreed upon with the exporter due to a shortage of currency in the importer’s country or a ban central bank countries;

· price risk - the risk of loss due to possible changes in the market price of a product. It is one of the most dangerous types of risk, since it is directly and significantly associated with the danger of loss of income and profit. commercial organization. It manifests itself in an increase in the level of selling prices of goods manufacturers, wholesale prices of intermediary organizations, an increase in prices and tariffs for the services of other organizations, an increase in the cost of equipment;

· risk of non-fulfillment of contract terms - a risk that involves termination or unilateral change of contract terms for financial or technical reasons (for example, commercial risk of non-payment, debtor risk, risk of insolvency of the counterparty, collection risk, etc.);

political risk - the risk of danger arising from an action government agencies or organized groups persons acting for political reasons, as a result of which the importer can pay or the exporter can ship the goods. These risks are not of a credit and financial nature;

· innovation risk- represents the probability of losses arising when an enterprise invests funds in the production of new goods and services that may not find the expected demand in the foreign market.

Innovation risk arises in the following cases:

· introduction of a cheaper method of producing export goods or services compared to those already used in international practice;

· investing in “breakthrough technologies” does not guarantee the desired result;

· information about the existence of the mastered technology does not correspond to reality;

· conflict caused by contradictory goals of various participants in an international project;

· discrepancy between the goals and expectations of the management of one of the partners and the results of the innovative project.

So, the implementation of the contract foreign trade purchase and sale involves certain risks for both the seller and the buyer. Often the seller must provide broad guarantees of its ability to fulfill its obligations to the buyer. At the same time, it is extremely important for the seller to know that the buyer will be able to make payment. The buyer also experiences an increase in the significance of risk in foreign trade.

2. Classification of financial risks

The financial risks of an enterprise are characterized by great diversity and, in order to effectively manage them, are classified according to the following main characteristics:

1. By type. This classification feature of financial risks is the main parameter for their differentiation in the management process. At the present stage, the main types of financial risks of an enterprise include the following:

Risk of reduced financial stability(or the risk of imbalance in financial development). This risk is generated by the imperfection of the capital structure (excessive share of borrowed funds used), which creates an imbalance in the positive and negative cash flows of the enterprise in terms of volumes.

Risk of enterprise insolvency. This risk is generated by a decrease in the level of liquidity of current assets, which creates an imbalance in the positive and negative cash flows of the enterprise over time.

Investment risk. It characterizes the possibility of financial losses occurring in the process of carrying out the investment activities of an enterprise. In accordance with the types of this activity, the types of investment risk are divided - real investment risk And financial investment risk. All considered types of financial risks associated with investment activities belong to the so-called “complex risks”, which in turn are divided into their individual subtypes. So, for example, the risks of untimely completion of design and construction work can be identified as part of the risk of real investment; untimely completion of construction and installation work; untimely opening of financing for an investment project; loss of investment attractiveness of the project due to a possible decrease in its efficiency, etc.

Inflation risk. In an inflationary economy, it stands out as an independent type of financial risk. This type of risk is characterized by the possibility of depreciation of the real value of capital (in the form of financial assets of the enterprise), as well as the expected income from financial transactions in conditions of inflation.

Interest rate risk. It consists of an unexpected change in the interest rate on the financial market (both deposit and credit).

Currency risk. This type of risk is inherent in enterprises conducting foreign economic activity (importing raw materials, materials and semi-finished products and exporting finished products). It manifests itself in the shortfall in receipt of the intended income as a result of the direct interaction of changes in the exchange rate of foreign currency used in the foreign economic operations of the enterprise on the expected cash flows from these operations.

Deposit risk. This risk reflects the possibility of non-return of deposits (non-repayment of certificates of deposit). It is relatively rare and is associated with incorrect assessment and bad choice commercial bank to carry out deposit operations of the enterprise.

Credit risk. It takes place in the financial activities of an enterprise when providing commodity (commercial) or consumer loan buyers.

Tax risk. This type of financial risk has a number of manifestations: the likelihood of introducing new types of taxes and fees on certain aspects of economic activity; the possibility of increasing the level of rates of existing taxes and fees; changing the terms and conditions for making certain tax payments; the likelihood of cancellation of existing tax benefits in the field of economic activity of the enterprise.

Structural risk. This type of risk is generated by ineffective financing of the current costs of the enterprise, causing a high proportion of fixed costs in their total amount.

Crime risk. In the sphere of financial activities of enterprises, it manifests itself in the form of its partners declaring fictitious bankruptcy, forging documents that ensure the misappropriation of monetary and other assets by third parties, theft of certain types of assets by their own personnel, and others.

Other types of risks. The group of other financial risks is quite extensive, but in terms of the likelihood of occurrence or the level of financial losses, it is not as significant for enterprises as those discussed above.

2. According to the characterized object, the following groups of financial risks are distinguished:

Risk of an individual financial transaction. It characterizes in a complex the entire range of types of financial risks inherent in a certain financial transaction (for example, the risk inherent in the acquisition of a specific share).

Risk of various types of financial activities(for example, the risk of an enterprise’s investment or lending activities).

Risk of the financial activity of the enterprise as a whole. The complex of various types of risks inherent in the financial activities of an enterprise is determined by the specifics of the organizational and legal form of its activities, the capital structure, the composition of assets, the ratio of constant and variable costs and so on.

3. Based on the totality of the instruments studied:

Individual financial risk. It characterizes the total risk inherent in individual financial instruments.

Portfolio financial risk. It characterizes the total risk inherent in a complex of single-functional financial instruments combined into a portfolio (for example, a company’s loan portfolio, its investment portfolio, etc.).

4. According to the complexity of the study:

Simple financial risk. It characterizes a type of financial risk that is not divided into its individual subtypes. An example of a simple financial risk is inflation risk.

Complex financial risk. It characterizes the type of financial risk, which consists of a complex of its subtypes under consideration. An example of complex financial risk is investment risk (for example, the risk of an investment project).

5. By sources of occurrence The following groups of financial risks are distinguished:

External, systematic or market risk. This type of risk arises when certain stages of the economic cycle change, financial market conditions change, and in a number of other similar cases that the enterprise cannot influence in the course of its activities.

Internal, unsystematic or specific risk. It may be associated with unskilled financial management, ineffective asset and capital structure, excessive commitment to risky (aggressive) financial transactions with high rates of return, underestimation of business partners and other similar factors, the negative consequences of which can be largely prevented through effective financial management. risks.

6. According to financial consequences all risks are divided into the following groups:

Risk entailing only economic losses. With this type of risk, the financial consequences can only be negative.

Risk entailing lost profits. It characterizes a situation when an enterprise, due to existing objective and subjective reasons, cannot carry out a planned financial transaction.

A risk that entails both economic losses and additional income. In the literature, this type of financial risk is often called “speculative financial risk”, since it is associated with the implementation of speculative (aggressive) financial transactions.

7. By the nature of manifestation over time There are two groups of financial risks:

Constant financial risk. It is typical for the entire period of a financial transaction and is associated with the action of constant factors. An example of such financial risk is interest rate risk, currency risk, etc.

Temporary financial risk. It characterizes risk that is permanent in nature, arising only at certain stages of a financial transaction. An example of this type of financial risk is the risk of insolvency of an effectively functioning enterprise.

8. According to the level of financial losses risks are divided into the following groups:

Acceptable financial risk. It characterizes the risk for which financial losses do not exceed the estimated amount of profit for the financial transaction.

Critical financial risk. It characterizes the risk for which financial losses do not exceed the estimated amount of gross income from the financial transaction.

Catastrophic financial risk. It characterizes the risk for which financial losses are determined by the partial or complete loss of equity capital (this type of risk may be accompanied by the loss of borrowed capital).

9. If possible, foresight financial risks are divided into the following two groups:

Projected financial risk. It characterizes those types of risks that are associated with the cyclical development of the economy, changing stages of financial market conditions, predictable development of competition, etc.

Unpredictable financial risk. It characterizes types of financial risks characterized by complete unpredictability of manifestation.

10. If possible, insurance financial risks are also divided into two groups:

Insurable financial risk. These include risks that can be transferred through external insurance to the relevant insurance organizations.

Uninsurable financial risk. These include those types for which there is no supply of appropriate insurance products on the insurance market.

3. Financial risk assessment

Assessing the level of risk is one of the most important stages risk management, since to manage risk it must first of all be analyzed and assessed. There are many definitions of this concept in the economic literature, but in general, risk assessment is understood as a systematic process of identifying factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, that is, the risk analysis methodology combines complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches.

Sources of information intended for risk analysis are:

Accounting statements of the enterprise.

Organizational structure and staffing table enterprises.

Process flow maps (technical and production risks);

Agreements and contracts (business and legal risks);

Cost of production.

Financial and production plans of the enterprise.

There are two stages of risk assessment: qualitative and quantitative.

The task of qualitative risk analysis is to identify the sources and causes of risk, stages and work during which risk arises, that is:

Identification of potential risk areas;

Identification of risks associated with the activities of the enterprise;

Forecasting practical benefits and possible negative consequences of identified risks.

The main goal of this assessment stage is to identify the main types of risks affecting financial and economic activities. The advantage of this approach is that already initial stage analysis, the head of the enterprise can clearly assess the degree of riskiness based on the quantitative composition of the risks and already at this stage refuse to implement a certain decision.

The final results of qualitative risk analysis, in turn, serve as initial information for conducting quantitative analysis, that is, only those risks that are present during a specific operation of the decision-making algorithm are assessed.

At the stage of quantitative risk analysis, the numerical values of individual risks and the risk of the object as a whole are calculated. Possible damage is also identified and a cost estimate of the manifestation of the risk is given and, finally, the final stage of the quantitative assessment is the development of a system of anti-risk measures and calculation of their cost equivalent.

Quantitative analysis can be formalized using the tools of probability theory, mathematical statistics, and operations research theory. The most common methods of quantitative risk analysis are statistical, analytical, the method of expert assessments, and the method of analogues.

Statistical methods.

The essence of statistical methods of risk assessment is to determine the probability of losses based on statistical data of the previous period and establish the area (zone) of risk, risk coefficient, etc. The advantages of statistical methods are the ability to analyze and evaluate various scenarios and take into account different risk factors within one approach. The main disadvantage of these methods is the need to use probabilistic characteristics in them. The following statistical methods can be used: estimation of the probability of execution, analysis of the probable distribution of the payment flow, decision trees, risk simulation, as well as the “Risk Metrics” technology.

The method of estimating the probability of execution allows you to give a simplified statistical assessment of the probability of execution of any decision by calculating the share of completed and unfulfilled decisions in the total amount of decisions made.

The method of analyzing probability distributions of payment streams allows, given a known probability distribution for each element of the payment stream, to estimate possible deviations of the values of payment streams from the expected ones. The stream with the least variation is considered less risky. Decision trees are usually used to analyze the risks of events that have a foreseeable or reasonable number of development options. They are especially useful in situations where decisions made at time t = n are highly dependent on decisions made earlier, and in turn determine scenarios for further developments. Simulation modeling is one of the most powerful methods for analyzing an economic system; in general, it refers to the process of conducting experiments with mathematical models on a computer complex systems real world. Simulation modeling is used in cases where conducting actual experiments, such as with economic systems, is unwise, costly, and/or not practical. In addition, it is often impractical or costly to collect the necessary information for decision making; in such cases, missing actual data are replaced by values obtained in the process of a simulation experiment (i.e., computer generated).

Risk Metrics technology was developed by J.P. Morgan" to assess the risk of the securities market. The technique involves determining the degree of influence of risk on an event by calculating the “risk measure”, that is, the maximum possible potential change in the price of a portfolio consisting of a different set of financial instruments, with a given probability and for a given period of time.

Analytical methods.

They allow you to determine the probability of losses based on mathematical models and are mainly used to analyze the risk of investment projects. It is possible to use such methods as sensitivity analysis, the method of adjusting the discount rate taking into account risk, the method of equivalents, and the method of scenarios.

Sensitivity analysis comes down to studying the dependence of a certain resulting indicator on the variation in the values of the indicators involved in its determination. In other words, this method allows you to get answers to questions like: what will happen to the resulting value if the value of some initial value changes?

The method of adjusting the discount rate taking into account risk is the simplest and, as a result, the most used in practice. Its main idea is to adjust a certain basic discount rate, which is considered risk-free or minimally acceptable. The adjustment is made by adding the required risk premium.

Using the method of reliable equivalents, the expected values of the flow of payments are adjusted by introducing special reducing factors in order to bring expected receipts to payment values, the receipt of which is practically beyond doubt and the values of which can be reliably determined.

The scenario method allows you to combine the study of the sensitivity of the resulting indicator with the analysis of probabilistic estimates of its deviations. Using this method, you can get a fairly clear picture for various options events. It represents a development of the sensitivity analysis technique, since it involves simultaneous changes in several factors.

Method of expert assessments.

It is a complex of logical and mathematical-statistical methods and procedures for processing the results of a survey of a group of experts, and the survey results are the only source of information. In this case, it becomes possible to use the intuition, life and professional experience of survey participants. The method is used when the lack or complete absence of information does not allow the use of other possibilities. The method is based on conducting a survey of several independent experts, for example, to assess the level of risk or determine the influence of various factors on the level of risk. The information received is then analyzed and used to achieve the goal. The main limitation in its use is the difficulty in selecting the necessary group of experts.

4 . Ananalysis of financial risks

The use of financial risk assessment methods makes it possible to quantify losses during market fluctuations. They also allow you to estimate the amount of capital that needs to be reserved to cover these losses.

One of the most popular risk assessment methods is the VaR (measure of risk) method. Calculating the VaR value allows us to obtain the following statement: “With probability X%, our losses will not exceed Y rubles over the next N days.” The purpose of this risk assessment method is to determine the unknown value Y, which represents VaR. It is a function of two variables: the time horizon N and the confidence level X.

Despite its popularity, the VaR method has a number of significant disadvantages, in particular, it:

Does not take into account possible large losses that may occur with low probability;

Encourages trading strategies that produce good returns in most scenarios, but can sometimes result in catastrophic losses.

The Shortfall method does not have many of the disadvantages inherent in VaR. This method is a more conservative measure of risk because it considers losses that are unlikely to occur and requires more capital to be reserved.

Let's look at a simple example illustrating the capabilities of the VaR and Shortfall methods.

Let's say we have a bond with a face value of 100 units that is due tomorrow. With a 99% probability it will be repaid in full, and with a 1% probability the borrower will refuse 100% fulfillment of his obligations and we will receive only half of the face value. In such a situation, our losses Y will be 0% with a probability of 0.99 and 50% with a probability of 0.01.

Having made calculations using VaR, we get a result equal to zero and a recommendation not to reserve capital at all. At the same time, Shortfall is equal to 50, which forces us to additionally develop measures to reduce this risk.

Thus, Shortfall allows you to take into account large losses that may occur with a small probability.

In addition to the methods discussed above, there is the SPAR exchange system for calculating guarantee obligations - a method for analyzing the risk of a standard portfolio, which, in our opinion, also makes sense to dwell on in more detail.

Because the SPAR method is used to establish margins, its objective is to determine the maximum loss that a portfolio can incur in a single trading day under most circumstances, for example with a probability of at least 95 or 99%.

SPAR analysis considers 16 scenarios of possible changes in the market situation. Taking these scenarios into account, an array of risk values is formed, which, by convention, represent the loss values of a portfolio consisting of only one option. This array of risk values is calculated by the exchange's analytical department daily (sometimes several times a day) and transmitted to clients who need such information.

Based on the data obtained, using simple arithmetic operations, it is possible to calculate the possible losses (gains) of any real portfolio of homogeneous positions and, having determined their maximum value, set the size of the guarantee deposit for such a portfolio. This is one of the main advantages of the SPAR system: the rather complex calculations associated with the option pricing model are performed centrally and once, and the remaining calculations are so basic that they do not require large time or computing resources.

As part of the presentation of this stage, in our opinion, it makes sense to conduct a study of the types of analysis used in practice.

Sensitivity analysis consists of determining the values of key parameters that affect the insurance company. It is important to determine what parameter changes would improve expected profitability (for example, a 25% increase in insurance rates or a 20% decrease in business costs). If a business is too sensitive to certain parameter changes, the insurance company's risk manager should regularly monitor their value.

Simulation modeling is a procedure by which a mathematical model for determining a financial indicator is subjected to a series of simulation runs using a computer.

The imitation process includes a set of specific actions. First, sequential scenarios are created using input data that is uncertain. Modeling is carried out in such a way that the random selection of values does not violate the actual ranges of parameter changes. The results of the simulation are systematized and analyzed statistically in order to estimate the VaR risk measure.

Currently Insurance companies they use sophisticated simulation models that make it possible to predict natural disasters (such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, etc.), analyze social changes, etc. These models make it possible to accurately determine the probability of occurrence of insured events and the volume of possible insured losses.

The disadvantages of these methods include difficulty in implementation and the need to use powerful computing resources (supercomputers).

5. Features of choosing a strategy and methods for solving management problems

The right to choose means the right to make decisions necessary to realize the intended purpose of a risky investment of capital. The decision must be made by the manager alone.

To manage risk, specialized groups of people can be created, for example, the insurance operations sector, the venture investment sector, the risk capital investment department (i.e., venture and portfolio investments), etc.

These groups of people can prepare a preliminary collective decision and adopt it by a simple or qualified (i.e. two-thirds, three-quarters, unanimous) majority vote.

However, one person must finally choose the option of taking the risk and investing risky capital, since he simultaneously assumes responsibility for this decision.

Responsibility indicates the interest of the risk-decision maker in achieving his goal.

When choosing a strategy and risk management techniques, a certain stereotype is often used, which consists of the experience and knowledge of a financial manager in the process of his work and serves as the basis for automatic skills in work. The presence of stereotypical actions gives the manager the opportunity to act promptly and in the most optimal way in certain typical situations. In the absence of typical situations, the financial manager must move from stereotypical solutions to the search for optimal, acceptable risk solutions.

Approaches to solving management problems can be very diverse, therefore risk management has many options.

Risk management is very dynamic. The effectiveness of its functioning largely depends on the speed of reaction to changes in market conditions, the economic situation, and the financial condition of the management object. Therefore, risk management should be based on knowledge of standard risk management techniques, the ability to quickly and correctly assess a specific economic situation, and the ability to quickly find a good, if not the only, way out of this situation.

There are no ready-made recipes in risk management and cannot be. It teaches how, knowing the methods, techniques, ways of solving certain economic problems, achieve tangible success in a specific situation, making it more or less definite for yourself.

6. Methods for assessing the degree of financial risk

Many financial transactions (venture investment, purchase of shares, selling transactions, credit transactions, etc.) are associated with a fairly significant risk. They require assessing the degree of risk and determining its magnitude.

The degree of risk is the probability of a loss event occurring, as well as the amount of possible damage from it.

The risk could be:

Acceptable - there is a threat of complete loss of profit from the implementation of the planned project;

Critical - possible non-receipt of not only profit, but also revenue and loss coverage at the expense of the entrepreneur;

Catastrophic - possible loss of capital, property and bankruptcy of the entrepreneur.

Quantitative analysis is the determination of the specific amount of monetary damage of individual subtypes of financial risk and financial risk in the aggregate.

Sometimes qualitative and quantitative analysis is carried out on the basis of assessing the impact of internal and external factors: element-by-element assessment is carried out specific gravity their influence on the work of a given company and its monetary value. This method of analysis is quite labor-intensive from the point of view of quantitative analysis, but brings its undoubted fruits in qualitative analysis. Due. with this, more attention should be paid to the description of methods for quantitative analysis of financial risk, since there are many of them and some skill is required for their competent application .

In absolute terms, risk can be determined by the amount of possible losses in material (physical) or cost (monetary) terms.

In relative terms, risk is defined as the amount of possible losses related to a certain base, in the form of which it is most convenient to take either the property status of the company, or the total cost of resources for a given type of business activity, or the expected income (profit). Then we will consider as losses a random deviation of profit, income, revenue downward. compared to expected values. Entrepreneurial losses are primarily an accidental decrease in entrepreneurial income. It is the magnitude of such losses that characterizes the degree of risk. Hence, risk analysis is primarily associated with the study of losses.

Depending on the magnitude of probable losses, it is advisable to divide them into three groups:

Losses, the value of which does not exceed the estimated profit, can be called acceptable;

Losses, the value of which is greater than the estimated profit, are classified as critical - such losses will have to be compensated from the entrepreneur’s pocket;

Even more dangerous is catastrophic risk, in which an entrepreneur risks incurring losses exceeding all his property.

If it is possible in one way or another to predict and estimate possible losses for a given operation, then a quantitative assessment of the risk that the entrepreneur is taking has been obtained. By dividing the absolute value of possible losses by the estimated cost or profit, we obtain a quantitative assessment of the risk in relative terms, as a percentage.

In saying that risk is measured by the magnitude of possible and probable losses, one should take into account the random nature of such losses. The probability of an event occurring can be determined by an objective method and a subjective one.

The objective method is used to determine the probability of an event occurring based on calculating the frequency with which the event occurs.

The subjective method is based on the use of subjective criteria, which are based on various assumptions. Such assumptions may include the judgment of the assessor, his personal experience, the assessment of a rating expert, the opinion of a consulting auditor, etc.

Thus, the basis for assessing financial risks is finding the relationship between certain amounts of company losses and the likelihood of their occurrence.

Conclusion

Financial analysis is the process of studying data about the financial condition of a company and assessing the results of its financial activities.

Financial analysis can be used: as a tool for justifying short-term and long-term economic decisions, as a means of assessing the feasibility of investments and the quality of management; as a way to predict future results.

The Concept of Reforming Enterprises adopted by the Government of the Russian Federation notes the need to study the techniques of financial analysis, the use of accounting and reporting information for the purposes of making management decisions.

Financial risk arises in the process of a company’s relationship with financial institutions (banks, financial, investment, insurance companies, exchanges, etc.)

There is no entrepreneurship without risk. The greatest profit, as a rule, comes from market transactions with increased risk. However, everything needs moderation. The risk must be calculated to the maximum permissible limit. As is known, all market assessments are multivariate in nature. It is important not to be afraid of mistakes in your market activities, since no one is immune from them, and most importantly, not to repeat mistakes, constantly adjust the system of actions from the standpoint of maximum profit. The manager is called upon to provide additional opportunities to mitigate sharp turns On the market. the main objective management, especially for the conditions of today's Russia, to ensure that in the worst case scenario we can only talk about a slight decrease in profits, but in no case is there any question of bankruptcy. That's why Special attention is devoted to continuous improvement of risk management - risk management.

Bibliography

1. Blank I.V. “Financial Management” - M. 2005

2. Balabanov I.T. Financial management: Textbook. - Moscow. Finance and Statistics, 2006.

3. Balabanov I.T. Fundamentals of financial management - M.: Finance and Statistics, 2004.

4. Danilochkina M.A., Savinsky R.K. Insurance of financial risks // Legal and legal work in insurance. 2008. No. 2. pp. 71-72.

5. J.K. Van Horn. Fundamentals of financial management - Moscow. Finance and Statistics, 2006.

6. Efimova O.V. “Financial analysis” M. “Accounting” 2008.

7. Kovalev V.V. “Introduction to financial management” - M. 2007

8. Lapusta M. Risks in entrepreneurial activity. - M.: INFRA-M, 2008.

9. Lyalin V.A., Vorobiev P.V. Financial management (company financial management). - St. Petersburg: Yunost, 2006.

10. Garanturov V. Economic risk. - M.: Business and Service, 2009.

11. Ovsiychuk M.F. “Financial Management” - M. 2003

12. Polyak G.B. “Financial Management” - M. 2006

13. R - system: Introduction to economic espionage. Book 1.2. - M.: “HAMTEC PUBLISHER”, 2007.

14. Romanov A.N. Lukasevich I.A. “Assessment of commercial activities of entrepreneurship; experience of foreign corporations - M. Finance and Statistics, Banks and Exchanges, 2007.

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1.2 Characteristics of financial risks

The problem of risk is closely related to the financial stability of the organization, which allows it to freely maneuver funds, ensure timely payments and expand production. At the same time, it must be optimal, since an excess of financial resources means the immobilization of funds, and a shortage impedes development.

The risks accompanying financial activities form an extensive risk portfolio of the enterprise, which is defined by the general concept of financial risk. This risk constitutes the most significant part of the enterprise’s total economic risks. Its level increases with the expansion of the volume and diversification of trading activities, with the desire of managers to increase the level of profitability of trading operations, with the development of new financial technologies and instruments.

“The financial risk of an enterprise is the result of the choice by its owners or managers of an alternative financial solution aimed at achieving the desired target result of economic activity with the likelihood of incurring economic damage (financial losses) due to the uncertainty of the conditions for its implementation. »

“Financial risks are speculative risks for which both positive and negative results are possible. Their peculiarity is the likelihood of damage as a result of such operations, which by their nature are risky. »

“Financial Risk is a risk caused by the structure of sources of funds. In this case, we are no longer talking about the riskiness of investing capital in certain assets, but about the riskiness of the policy regarding the advisability of attracting certain sources of financing for the company’s activities. »

The fact is that in the overwhelming majority of cases, sources of financing are not free, and the amount of payment varies both by type of source and in relation to a specific source, considered over time or burdened with additional conditions and circumstances.

In addition, the obligations towards the capital supplier assumed by the enterprise in the event of attracting one or another source of financing are different. In particular, if obligations to external investors are not fulfilled in accordance with the agreement, then bankruptcy proceedings may well be initiated against the enterprise with inevitable losses for the owners in this case.

“The essence of financial risk and its significance are thus determined by the structure of long-term sources of financing; The higher the proportion of debt capital, the higher the level of risk discussed. »

Financial risk has a serious impact on many aspects of an organization’s economic activity, but its most significant impact is manifested in two directions:

1) the level of risk has a decisive influence on the formation of the level of profitability of the enterprise’s business operations - these two indicators are closely interrelated and represent a single “profitability-risk” system;

2) financial risk is the main form of generating a direct threat of bankruptcy of an organization, since the financial losses associated with this risk are the most significant.

The financial risks of an enterprise are characterized by great diversity and, in order to prepare and implement effective management decisions, require a certain classification of their types.

1.3 Types of financial risks

The variety of financial risks in their classification system is presented in the widest range. It should be noted that the emergence of new financial technologies, the use of new financial instruments and other innovative factors will accordingly give rise to new types of financial risks.

Methods for qualitative risk assessment.

Plan

§ 1. The concept of assessing business risks.

Methods for quantitative risk assessment.

Methods for qualitative risk assessment.

§1. In the risk management process, special attention is paid to the mechanism for assessing business risk. Risk assessment – this is a quantitative and qualitative determination of the magnitude (degree) of risk.

In the process of making management decisions in any field of activity, the entrepreneur is faced with the task of choosing only one that would meet his requirements. To do this, the entrepreneur needs to analyze everything possible options and their consequences.

The assessment of business risk depends on many factors, including both objective and subjective ones. Thus, the quality of risk assessment depends on the experience of the entrepreneur and on the situation in which the decision is made. If a decision is made under conditions of uncertainty, the entrepreneur knows exactly the outcome of each of the decision options. However, as noted above, the presence of certainty is a rather rare phenomenon in entrepreneurship. Moreover, uncertainty can arise even with a completely clear, unambiguous choice, if the decision is made in conditions where the state of the external environment is unknown or is changing rapidly.

The assessment of business risks, including financial ones, is carried out in order to determine the probability and size of losses that characterize the magnitude of the risk.

It is necessary to distinguish high-quality And quantitative business risk assessment. A qualitative assessment can be relatively simple; its main task is to identify possible types of risk, as well as factors influencing the level of risk when performing a certain type of activity. Qualitative analysis is usually carried out at the stage of developing a business plan. On at this stage risk assessment, the entrepreneur must identify the main types of risks that affect the results of business activities.

Quantitative assessment is more labor-intensive, time-consuming and expensive. In studies devoted to the problem of risk, there are different approaches to determining the criterion for quantitative risk assessment. Let's look at some of them.

When considering risk as a probability of failure, the criterion for assessing risk is the probability that the result obtained will be less than the required value. This criterion is calculated using the following formula:

where R is the risk assessment criterion;

P – probability of a risk event;

D tr – required (planned) result value;

D – the result obtained.

The disadvantage of the considered method is that it allows you to assess the level of risk only after obtaining a certain result, and for an entrepreneur it is important to assess the risk at the decision-making stage. For this purpose, there is a risk assessment method, which, as a criterion for the latter, considers the absolute value calculated using the formula:

where R is the degree of risk;

Y – expected damage;

P(U) – probability of damage.

§2. The most common methods quantitative analysis risks are the following:

Statistical;

Cost feasibility analysis.

The essence statistical method consists in studying the statistics of losses and profits that occurred in a given or similar production, establishing the magnitude and frequency of obtaining a particular economic return, and drawing up the most probable forecast for the future.

The main calculated indicators of this include: dispersion, root-mean-square (standard) deviation, coefficient of variation.

A measure of quantitative assessment of the magnitude of risk is the indicator “ average (mathematical) expected value of events (result)", which is calculated by the formula:

where is the average expected value;

– absolute value of the -result;

The probability of the occurrence of the -result;

The number of possible outcomes of events.

Other risk assessment indicators are the values
variability (fluctuation) of a possible result - average
standard deviation actual results from the average expected value and dispersion, which are determined by the formulas:

; (4)

, (5)

where σ is the standard deviation;

σ 2 - dispersion.

The remaining designations correspond to those adopted previously.

Dispersion and standard deviation characterize the absolute variability of possible financial results.

For comparative assessment, the most suitable indicators of relative variability are the coefficient of variation and the beta coefficient.

The coefficient of variation(V) calculated by the formula:

Beta coefficient(β) is used to assess the risk of investing in securities and is calculated using the formula:

where Δ i is the percentage change in the rate of the i-th security;

Δ is the average percentage change in the prices of all shares on the stock market.

When the coefficient of variation is up to 10%, the variability is considered weak, when the value is 10-25% - moderate, above 25% - high. The degree of financial risk is assessed accordingly.

Cost feasibility analysis is to identify potential risk areas. The following factors or combinations thereof are considered as initial factors that may cause an increase in planned costs:

ü initial underestimation of the project cost;

ü change of design boundaries;

ü differences in performance;

ü increase in the initial cost of the project;

ü change in the conditions of the project implementation.

The factors can be detailed. An example is the analysis of financial stability indicators in order to determine the degree of risk of financial assets.

All of the above analysis methods allow, as a rule, to carry out a quantitative risk assessment and determine the numerical value of possible losses and the likelihood of their occurrence. But in practice, quantitative risk analysis is complemented by its qualitative aspect.

Qualitative analysis risk can be relatively simple. Its main task is to identify risk factors, stages and work during which risk arises, i.e. identify potential risk areas and then identify all possible risks.

All factors influencing the degree of risk can be divided into objective and subjective. Objective factors include factors that do not directly depend on the company itself, inflation, competition, political and economic crises, ecology, customs duties, etc. Subjective factors characterize this company directly: production potential, personnel composition, economic relations, financial condition.

Depending on the results obtained, they determine how safe the environment in which the company operates or the implementation of this project is.

The literature on risk provides many methods qualitative assessment financial risks, using the results of experience, intuition, collection and analysis of various information, i.e. heuristic methods.

A feature of such methods and models is the lack of rigorous mathematical proof of the optimality of the resulting solutions. The general thrust of these procedures is to use a person as a “measuring instrument” to obtain quantitative estimates and judgments.

Vivid examples traditional heuristic procedures are various examinations (method of expert assessments), consultations, meetings, etc., the result of which are expert assessments state of the research object.

Expert assessment method is widely used in various fields of activity, and expensive measures are implemented on its basis.

The expert assessment method is a procedure for obtaining a risk assessment using surveys of specially selected experts regarding the values of certain parameters and/or analysis indicators. To carry out an expert assessment, a group of analysts from various fields, well informed in the area of the problem under consideration, is formed. Members of the expert group are selected based on their formal professional status and position, academic degree, practical and scientific work experience, as well as the results of testing and certification by colleagues and other specialists. The group of experts must ensure the reliability and completeness of the analyzed information, the possibility of checking it from the point of view of the methodology of its formation, create conditions for the statistical stability of the analyzed time series and guarantee the reliability of the assessment procedure itself. The form of expert survey can be anonymous, face-to-face or correspondence, individual or group.

Each expert is provided with a complete set of analyzed information, a list of possible risks and a scale for assessing the likelihood of their occurrence (or non-occurrence). For example, the following scale for assessing a specific risk is proposed:

0 – insignificant level of risk;

25 – most likely the risk situation will not occur, i.e. the risk level will maintain its optimal level;

50 – the risk situation is not defined, and additional information is probably needed;

75 – fairly high probability of a risk situation occurring;

100 – a risky situation will definitely occur.

Then expert assessments are analyzed for their differences and inconsistencies. In this case, the maximum permissible difference between the assessments of a specific type of risk by two experts should not exceed a certain, predetermined value of the probability of the occurrence of this risk:

max /Ai – Bi /<= K (2),

Where A, B– assessment vector for each of the two experts;

i– type of risk being assessed;

TO– criterion value.

For example, if there are three experts, three assessments should be made: for pairwise comparison of the opinions of the first and third, the first and second, and the second and third experts.

In addition to the method of expert assessments, the group of qualitative analysis of the level of financial risk includes such methods as the method of analogies, the “Due Diligence” method, “decision tree”, and the Monte Carlo method.

Method of analogies, which consists in comparing the type, size and reasons for the occurrence or change of a specific analyzed risk with a similar situation. The comparison is made with the situation in the past or existing in similar institutional units in the present. The results of research and marketing information are used for this purpose.

"Due Diligence" method which is used primarily by banks or non-banking financial institutions conducting some banking transactions. This method is based on a system for collecting and analyzing information about the performance of clients, founders and all subjects of the third level of marketing analysis: intermediaries, suppliers, competitors and all types of contact audiences.

"Decision tree". The method of constructing a “decision tree” is most often used for risk analysis, in which a foreseeable number of calculable options can be identified. This method consists of determining the likelihood of a certain number of possible scenarios occurring and determining quantitative and qualitative risk parameters for each scenario. To conduct research using the “decision tree” method, it is necessary to have the maximum possible amount of quantitative and qualitative information, not only in statics, but also in dynamics. To collect and evaluate data, the following sequence must be followed:

1. determining the composition and duration of the life cycle of a process and/or a specific financial transaction;

2. identification of key external and/or internal events that may affect the dynamics of the risk level;

3. determining the time of occurrence of these events;

4. identifying possible decisions or options for action that can be taken as a result of the occurrence or non-occurrence of each key event;

5. determining the probability of making each of the possible decisions;

6. determination of the level of risk when passing through each of the identified stages of the process.

Based on the obtained result, a “decision tree” is built. Its nodes represent key events, and the arrows (vectors) and connecting nodes represent an objective process/specific financial transaction, etc.

To analyze the resulting “decision tree,” it is necessary to identify all possible scenarios and, depending on the situation, select the optimal one.

Monte Carlo method which is a method of formalized description of uncertainty, used in the most difficult situations to predict.

The method is based on the use of simulation models that make it possible to create a variety of scenarios consistent with specified restrictions on the initial variables. Simulation Modeling – This is an artificial experiment in which, instead of conducting natural tests, experiments are carried out on mathematical models.

In practice, this method can only be applied using a number of computer programs that make it possible to describe predictive models with a large number of random scenarios.

The main disadvantage of qualitative analysis of financial risks is the high level of subjectivity and, as a result, the lack of confidence in the reliability of the estimates obtained. That is why in many cases quantitative analysis methods are considered preferable.

1.3 Methodology for assessing the financial risks of an enterprise

A system of risk assessment indicators is a set of interrelated indicators aimed at solving specific problems of business activity.

Under conditions of certainty, the group of risk assessment indicators includes financial indicators that reflect the availability, placement and use of financial resources and thereby make it possible to assess the risk of consequences of the company's performance. The company's financial statements are used as initial information when assessing risk: a balance sheet that records the property and financial position of the organization as of the reporting date; An income statement presenting the results of operations for an accounting period. The main financial risks assessed by companies are as follows:

Risks of loss of solvency;

Risks of loss of financial stability and independence;

Risks of the structure of assets and liabilities.

The model for assessing the liquidity (solvency) risk of the balance sheet using absolute indicators is presented in Figure 1.

The procedure for grouping assets and liabilities

Asset grouping procedure

according to the speed of their transformation

in cash

Liability grouping order

by degree of urgency

fulfillment of obligations

A1. Most liquid assets

A1 = page 250 + page 260

P1. Most urgent obligations

P1 = page 620

A2. Quickly selling assets

A2 = page 240

P2. Short-term liabilities

P2 = page 610 + page 630 + page 660

A3. Slow moving assets

A3 = page 210 + page 220 + page 230 + page 270

P3. Long-term liabilities

P3 = page 590 + page 640 + page 650

A4. Hard to sell assets

A4 = page 190

P4. Permanent liabilities

P4 = page 490

Liquidity status type
Conditions
A1 ≥ P1; A2 ≥ P2; A3 ≥ P3; A4 ≤ P4	A1< П1; А2 ≥ П2; A3 ~ P3; A4 ~ P4	A1< П1; А2 < П2; A3 ~ P3; A4 ~ P4	A1< П1; А2 < П2; A3< П3; А4 >P4
Absolute liquidity	Allowable liquidity	Impaired liquidity	Crisis liquidity

Liquidity risk assessment
Risk-free	acceptable risk	Critical risk zone	Catastrophic risk zone

Figure 1 – Model for assessing balance sheet liquidity risk using absolute indicators

The assessment of the risk of financial stability of an enterprise is presented in Figure 2. This is the simplest and most approximate way to assess financial stability. In practice, different methods for analyzing financial stability can be used.

Calculation of the amount of sources of funds and the amount of reserves and costs
1. Excess (+) or lack (-) of own working capital	2. Excess (+) or deficiency (-) of own and long-term borrowed sources of formation of reserves and costs	3. Excess (+) or deficiency (-) of the total amount of the main sources for the formation of reserves and costs
±Fs = SOS – ZZ ±Fs = p.490 – p.190 – – (p.210 + p.220)	±Ft = SDI – ZZ ±Ft = p.490 + p.590 – – p.190 – (p.210 + p. 220)	±Fo = JVI – ZZ ±Fo = p.490 + p.590 + p.690 – – p.190 – (p.210 + p.220)
(Ф) = 1 if Ф > 0; = 0 if Ф< 0.

Type of financial condition
Conditions
±Fs ≥ 0; ±Ft ≥ 0;	±Fs< 0; ±Фт ≥ 0; ±Фо ≥ 0;	±Fs< 0; ±Фт < 0;	±Fs< 0; ±Фт < 0;
Absolute independence	Normal independence	Unstable financial condition	Crisis financial condition
Sources of cost coverage used
Own working capital	Own working capital plus long-term loans	Own working capital plus long-term and short-term loans and borrowings	-
Brief description of types of financial condition
High solvency; the company does not depend on creditors	Normal solvency; efficient use of borrowed funds; high profitability of production activities	Violation of solvency; the need to attract additional sources; possibility of improving the situation	Insolvency of the enterprise; brink of bankruptcy

Assessing the risk of financial instability
Risk-free zone	Acceptable risk zone	Critical risk zone	Catastrophic risk zone

Figure 2 – Risk assessment of the company’s financial stability

Table 1 – Financial liquidity ratios

Index	Calculation method	Recommended values	A comment
1. General liquidity indicator			Shows the company’s ability to make payments on all types of obligations - both immediate and remote
2. Absolute liquidity ratio		L 2 > 0.2–0.7	Shows what part of the short-term debt the organization can repay in the near future using cash
3. Critical evaluation factor		Acceptable 0.7–0.8; preferably	Shows what part of the organization's short-term obligations can be immediately repaid using funds in various accounts, short-term securities, as well as settlement proceeds
4. Current ratio		Optimal - at least 2.0	Shows what part of current obligations on loans and settlements can be repaid by mobilizing all working capital
5. Operating capital maneuverability coefficient		A decrease in the indicator in dynamics is a positive fact	Shows what part of the operating capital is immobilized in inventories and long-term receivables
6. Equity ratio		Not less than 0.1	Characterizes the availability of the organization’s own working capital necessary for its financial stability

Table 2 – Financial ratios used to assess the financial stability of a company

Index	Calculation method	Recommended values	A comment
1. Autonomy coefficient		The minimum threshold value is at the level of 0.4. Excess indicates an increase in financial independence, expanding the possibility of attracting funds from outside	Characterizes independence from borrowed funds
2. Debt to equity ratio		U 2< 1,5. Превышение указанной границы означает зависимость предприятия от внешних источников средств, потерю финансовой устойчивости (автономности)	Shows how much borrowed funds the company attracted per 1 ruble of its own funds invested in assets
3. Equity ratio		U 3 > 0.1. The higher the indicator (0.5), the better the financial condition of the enterprise	Illustrates the presence of the enterprise's own working capital necessary for its financial stability
4. Financial stability ratio		U 4 > 0.6. A decrease in indicators indicates that the company is experiencing financial difficulties	Shows how much of an asset is financed from sustainable sources

Table 3 – Integral score assessment of the financial condition of the organization

Index financial condition	Indicator rating	Criterion		Conditions for reducing the criterion
Index financial condition	Indicator rating	higher	lower	Conditions for reducing the criterion
1. Absolute liquidity ratio (L 2)	20	0.5 and above - 20 points	Less than 0.1 - 0 points	For every 0.1 point reduction compared to 0.5, 4 points are deducted
2. “Critical assessment” coefficient (L 3)	18	1.5 and above - 18 points		For every 0.1 point reduction compared to 1.5, 3 points are deducted
3. Current ratio (L 4)	16,5	2 and above - 16.5 points		For every 0.1 point reduction in compared to 2, 1.5 points are deducted
4. Autonomy coefficient (U 1)	17	0.5 and above - 17 points	Less than 0.4 - 0 points	For every 0.1 point reduction compared to 0.5, 0.8 points are deducted
5. Equity ratio (U 3)	15	0.5 and above - 15 points	Less than 0.1 - 0 points	For every 0.1 point reduction compared to 0.5, 3 points are deducted
6. Financial stability coefficient (U 4)	13,5	0.8 and above - 13.5 points	Less than 0.5 - 0 points	For every 0.1 point reduction compared to 0.8, 2.5 points are deducted

1st class (100–97 points) are organizations with absolute financial stability and absolutely solvent. They have a rational property structure and, as a rule, are profitable.

2nd class (96–67 points) - these are organizations in normal financial condition. Their financial indicators are quite close to optimal, but there is a certain lag in certain ratios. Profitable organizations.

3rd class (66–37 points) are organizations whose financial condition can be assessed as average. When analyzing the balance sheet, the weakness of individual financial indicators is revealed. Solvency is on the border of the minimum acceptable level, and financial stability is normal. When dealing with such organizations, there is hardly a threat of loss of funds, but their fulfillment of obligations on time seems doubtful.

4th class (36–11 points) - these are organizations with an unstable financial condition. There is a certain financial risk when dealing with them. They have an unsatisfactory capital structure, and their solvency is at the lower limit of what is acceptable. Profit is usually absent or insignificant.

5th grade (10–0 points) - these are organizations with a crisis financial condition. They are insolvent and completely unsustainable from a financial point of view. Such organizations are unprofitable.

The ratio of sales revenue (or revenue minus variable costs) and sales profit is called “operating leverage” and characterizes the degree of risk of the enterprise when sales revenue decreases.

The general formula that can be used to determine the level of operating leverage with a simultaneous decrease in prices and physical volume is as follows:

R1 = (R2 x Ic + R3 x In) : Iv (1)

where L1 is the level of operating leverage;

L2 – level of operating leverage when sales revenue decreases due to price reductions;

L3 – level of operating leverage with a decrease in sales revenue due to a decrease in the natural volume of sales;

Ic – price reduction (as a percentage of basic sales revenue);

In – reduction in natural sales volume (as a percentage of basic sales revenue);

Yves – decrease in sales revenue (in percent).

It is possible that a drop in sales revenue occurs as a result of a decrease in prices with a simultaneous increase in the physical volume of sales. In this case, the formula is converted to another:

R1 = (R2 x Ic - R3 x In) : Iv (2)

Another option. Sales revenue decreases as prices rise and physical sales volume declines. The formula for these conditions takes the following form:

L1 = (R3 x In - L2 x Ic): Iv (3)

The total amount of profit of the enterprise is first reduced by the amount of income tax. The amount remaining at the disposal of the enterprise after this can be used for various purposes. In this case, it is not the specific areas of spending profits that matter, but the nature of these expenses.

Such expenses include:

Dividends on preferred shares and interest on bonds issued by the enterprise;

Interest on bank loans to the extent paid out of profits. This includes: the amount of interest on bank loans received to compensate for the lack of working capital (this loan is targeted and issued under a special loan agreement with a bank establishment). The agreement provides for specific conditions for issuing a loan and measures that the company must take to restore the required amount of working capital;

Interest on loans for the acquisition of fixed assets, intangible and other non-current assets;

Amounts of interest paid on funds borrowed from other enterprises and organizations;

Penalties to be included in the budget. This includes fines and costs for damages resulting from non-compliance with environmental requirements; fines for receiving unjustified profits due to inflated prices, concealment or understatement of profits and other objects of taxation; other types of penalties to be included in the budget.

The greater these and other expenses of a similar nature, the greater the risk of the enterprise. The risk is that if the amount of profit decreases to a certain extent, the profit remaining after paying all mandatory payments will decrease to a much greater extent, up to the point where this part of the profit becomes negative.

Operational and financial leverage allow us to give a unified assessment of the financial risk of an enterprise. Let us introduce the following notation:

Lo – operating leverage;

Lf – financial leverage;

B – sales revenue;

Per – variable costs;

Pch – net profit;

Ps – free profit;

Pr – profit from sales.

Then Lo = B/Pr or (B – Per)/Pr;

Lf = Pch / Ps.

If you enter k = Pr / Pch, then both formulas can be combined into one:

Lo x Lf = (V / Pr) x (Pr / (k x Ps)) = V / k x Ps

Lo x Lf = (V – Per) / (k x Ps) (4)

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Abstract: Financial risks and methods for their assessment. Assessment of financial risks based on financial statements

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