What is “total” in football betting?
What do bets on totals mean in football?
Betting on total in football
The ability to play on totals is one of the skills of an experienced successful bettor. Totals are a very popular type of bet, so you shouldn’t ignore them. This article will tell you what totals mean and why they are needed.
In the usual common sense, total in sports betting means the total number of any indicators: goals, pucks, points, games, yellow cards, corners, etc. We will consider totals in football. But you can easily figure out how to bet totals in other sports. Most often, bets are placed on the total number of goals scored in a match. This means that the bet is on the total number of goals that the teams will score in the match. But not a specific number of goals (although there are such bets), but on certain limits of this number. For example, 2 goals are taken as the mark, and you choose what to bet - will the teams score more than 2 goals, or less than 2 goals in the match. In the bookmaker's schedule, this mark is usually indicated as 2.5 goals. Accordingly, a bet on teams scoring 3 or more goals is denoted by the accepted abbreviation TB(2.5). If you think that the teams will score a maximum of 2 goals or less, then you can bet TM (2.5). You can take 1.5 goals, 3.5, etc. for the mark. Accordingly, you need to look for TB (1.5), TB (3.5) or TM (1.5), TM (3, 5).
Rice. 1. Totals in football betting
This brief information about totals, and now it’s time to consider in detail what totals are and what they mean.
Fractional totals in football
We have already discussed this most popular type of totals at the beginning of the article. That is, the number of goals is taken as the mark, for example TB(2.5) and you guess whether the teams will score more than 2.5 goals (that is, 3, 4, 5, etc.), or less than 2.5 goals ( that is, 2,1,0).
Example.
Barcelona - Real Madrid. TB(3.5).
In this case, the bet is placed on the fact that there will be 4 or more goals in the match. Accordingly, in this case, the bet will win. If there are only 3 goals or less in the match, then it is easy to guess that the bet has lost.
Attention! It is advisable to take totals such as in the above example for teams that play effectively, or teams that, in your opinion, will play effectively in this particular match.
Example.
Rostov - Ufa. TM(1.5).
The bet is that the teams will score a few goals in the match, namely no more than one goal. In this case, the bet will win. If the teams score two or more goals, the bet will lose.
Attention! It is better to take such a total, as in the above example, on teams that score little or, in your opinion, will score little in this particular match.
Whole totals
Above we looked at fractional totals, type TB(2.5), TB(3.5), TM(1.5). However, there are also integer totals TB(1), TB(2), TB(3), etc. And TM(1), TM(2), TM(3), respectively. Their peculiarity is that in the case of entire totals, a return of the bet is possible. For example, you set TB(2). The teams scored only 2 goals. If you had taken the popular total TB(2.5) instead of this bet, the bet would have lost. And in the case of TB(2) with only two goals scored in a match, the bet does not win, but does not lose either, but they say it goes for a refund (calculated with odds of 1).
Rice. 2. Whole and fractional totals
That is, we are, as it were, insuring ourselves if the teams in this case score a number of goals equal to the value in brackets.
Example.
Borussia Monchengladbach - Wolfsburg. TB(3).
The bet is placed on teams scoring more than three goals in a match. If two teams score 4 or more goals in the match, the bet goes through. If the teams score two or fewer goals, the bet will lose. If the teams score exactly 3 goals, then the bet is returned (calculated with odds of 1).
Example.
Betis - Alaves. TM(2)
The bet is placed on the teams scoring less than 2 goals in the match. If two teams score 1 or do not score at all, the bet goes through. If the teams score 3 or more goals, the bet will lose. If the teams score exactly 2 goals, then the bet is returned (calculated with odds of 1).
Totals in halves
There are also totals by halves in football (respectively, in hockey - total periods, in basketball - totals of quarters, etc.), when you bet on the number of goals not in the entire match, but only in one of the halves. For example, you know that Borussia Dortmund usually rushes to score from the very first minutes of the match, while giving counter chances to the opponent who knows how to attack sharply. It is quite logical in this case to assume that teams can score several goals already in the first half. In this case, you can take a bet - Total of the 1st half is more than 1.5. This bet may look like this in the bookmaker’s list: 1 half TB (1.5). In this case, if the teams score 2 or more goals in the first half, the bet will win. If the teams score 1 goal or do not score at all, the bet will lose.
Rice. 3. Total goals by halves
There are bets on both halves separately, for example:
- Both halves have more than (1.5) goals - yes - means that at least 2 goals or more must be scored in each half.
- Both halves over (1.5) goals - No - means that a maximum of 1 goal or less will be scored in each half
Time period totals in football
It is logical to assume that there are bets not only on halves, but also on specific time periods of the match. For example, the total of the interval from 45 to 60 minutes, or for example, from 75 to 90, etc. Of course, this is a somewhat risky type of bet, but if teams have a peculiarity and predisposition to score goals at the end of matches, then you can bet on that that teams will score in such periods.
Totals can be not only based on the number of goals, pucks, points, etc. But also on the number of yellow cards, corners, violations (fouls) and other indicators.
Rice. 4. Totals for statistics
Accurate total goals in football
This is actually a very risky form of betting when you are predicting the exact number of goals in a match.
Rice. 5. Accurate total goals
Example.
Valencia - Athletic Bilbao. T(4).
This means that if there are exactly 4 goals in the match, the bet will go through. But if there is a different number of goals, the bet will lose.
Afterword...
So, total betting is another technique that helps successful players achieve profit. To do this, of course, you must know the features and capabilities of the playing teams, their game uniform, problems solved at the tournament, etc. Very often the outcome of a match is difficult to predict; in this case, it is possible to turn your attention not to the outcome of the match, but to the total.
What is total in betting - the first thing a beginner needs to know. The strategy for playing on over or under totals and individual totals is simple but effective. The total strategy is based on bets on the number of goals scored, points, pucks, sets, games and other similar events, which all bookmakers, without exception, offer in their lines. In order to win, when betting on totals, you just need to guess whether the total in the match will be more or less. Therefore, the total strategy, like the total tactics, is extremely simple.
The most high odds for football + fast payouts + bonus 4,000 rubles! Reliable bookmaker. Register!
It is impossible to imagine a modern, progressive bookmaker's office without an excellent selection of sports bets, detailed lines, and a description of each event. Total is often found among them. But what is total in sports betting? This is one of the popular areas in official betting in PPP and online. The main advantage of total as a type of bet is minimal risks and simplicity. This bet is ideal for a beginner just starting out in betting.
Total is common in almost all sports on which the bookmaker offers bets. For example, in football, where relatively few goals are scored per match, the popular total is more or less than 2.5. There are exceptions to the rules, for example the Latin American championships, where 3-5 goals per match is the norm.
In the championships of Russia, Iceland, Switzerland or Ukraine, the total is usually less than 1.5. This type of bet is not limited to just the number of goals. You can bet on fouls, corners or individual player indicators.
In basketball, the total always includes overtime. In addition to betting on total points, you can make money on the individual statistics of players, the number of shots, and fouls.
In hockey, the number of goals in a match without extra time is taken into account. Different types totals are mainly represented in the NHL and KHL. In matches of other leagues, this bet is implemented only in the form of “over/under”.
What does Total over mean in betting?
What is total over or TB? This is an outcome in which a team or player will beat the odds offered by the bookmaker. For example, a bet of Overhead(1) means that the teams will score more than one goal. If this does not happen, the bet will lose.
- Total over 1- will win if more than 1 goal is scored in the match. For example: 2:0, 1:1, 0:3 etc. Will lose if there are no goals scored. A refund will be made if only one goal is scored in the match.
- Total over 1.5- will win if more than one goal is scored in the match. For example: 2:0, 1:1, 0:3 etc. Will lose if there are no goals scored or if only one goal is scored in the match.
- Total over 2- will win if more than 2 goals are scored in the match. For example: 3:0, 2:1, 0:3 etc. Will lose if less than two goals are scored. Refunds will be made if two goals are scored in the match.
- Total over 2.5- will win if more than two goals are scored in the match. For example: 2:1, 3:0, 1:3 etc. Will lose if less than 3 goals are scored in the match.
- Total over 5- will win if more than five goals are scored in the match. For example: 3:3, 5:1, 4:3 etc. Will lose if less than five goals are scored. Refunds will be made if five goals are scored in the match.
What does Total Under mean in betting?
A bet on the total under is a bet on the outcome in which the team or player does not exceed the indicators proposed by the bookmaker. For example, the TM(2) bet means that the teams will not score more than two goals. If this does not happen and the match ends with the score 2:1, 3:0, 2:2 and so on, then the bet will lose.
3 secrets of winners in total betting
What does total betting mean that brings regular victories? To achieve stable profits, you need:
- Use proven strategies.
- Carefully analyze matches, paying attention to every detail of the upcoming match.
- Pay attention to the performance of individual games and competitions as a whole.
Example of a total bet in basketball
Bets on totals in basketball are calculated based on the number of points scored by teams. For a clear example, we can take a meeting between two conditional participants in the NBA league. Result of the meeting: 90:84. Accordingly, the total of the game is: 174. The bet will win if the player has previously placed a bet on a result greater than this indicator and will lose in the opposite case.
Basic rules and features of calculating total bets
An example of calculating a bet on a total in football
What is the total in football betting and how to calculate it? To calculate, you can take an ordinary RFPL match that ended quite recently: Spartak - Rubin. What total should I choose for this game? For correct calculation, it is recommended to use the statistics of the last meetings of the teams. In matches involving Spartak it is scored different quantities goals - 0,1,3 and 4. We can conclude that the Muscovites are building the game, focusing on the opponent.
Their opponent, Rubin Kazan, is often closed and rarely scores more than two goals. But the matches between these teams turn out to be more or less productive - of the last five, only two had less than two goals scored.
Based on this data, it should be assumed that the teams will be able to score 3 goals and set a TB of 2.5.
How is the total counted in overtime?
Totals in basketball and hockey are calculated taking into account overtime, that is, based on the results of the entire match. But some bookmakers offer to calculate totals without overtime. To clarify the issue, you need to carefully read the rules of the game at the selected bookmaker.
Subtypes of total bets
The main and most popular types of totals are over or under. Total bets here are placed on more or less events in a particular match.
The bookmaker sets a specific number of events, and the player’s task is to guess whether more or less of them happened. The most popular total for football: over or under 2.5.
Fractional and integer
Fractional total- 0.5, 1.5 and so on. For example, a total of less than 1.5 will win if less than two goals are scored in the match. But just one extra ball in the goal will allow the bet to burn. Integer totals operate on the same principles, but fractional numbers are not used. Examples of totals: TB 3, TM 2 and so on.
This is a combination of fractional and integer numbers. Example: a player bets 1000 rubles on a total of 3.25. This bet in Asian total is divided into two 500: TB 3 and 3.5. With a score of 2:1, 3 goals is a return, and 3.5 goals is a loss.
If the score is 2:2, both bets win.
Individual total
This implies a bet on the performance of one of the participants in the match. For example, the bet ITB1(2,5) means that the player predicts a situation in which the home team will score more than two goals against the opponent.
Three-way total
Three-way total- a bet that includes three outcomes. To the classic “more or less” is added “equal”. For example, in a fictitious football match, you can bet that the teams will score more, less or equal to two (one, three, four, etc.) number of goals.
Time total even odd
This is a bet on goals scored in an even or odd number. For example, the total is even with 4 goals. If 3 - it is odd. The bet wins if the player guesses the total from the position of even/odd goals scored or points scored.
Additional total in sports betting
Most bookmakers have additional totals - all with the exception of the main group. A number of offices consider additional individual totals competition participants. The additional total makes it possible to reinsure due to a lower value or increase quotes using TB.
In additional totals, individual indicators take into account the indicators of players and teams. The number of points taken into account is not the match as a whole, but the number of points of a selected team or athlete. In addition, totals for halves or match periods are considered additional.
Total Express - simple system, where only two outcomes are possible - more or less. For example, a player has found two promising matches that should end in a total result. To be on the safe side, two more express bets are created: “more-less” and “less-more”. The overall coefficient, on average, for each express bet is about 3.61. If you guess at least one TB, the profit is about 20 percent. The bet loses only if both matches end with a TM result.
Winning total betting strategists in football, hockey and basketball
For football, hockey and basketball there are several interesting strategies that are popular among experienced players. In football, this is online hedging.
Its essence is as follows:
- Place it on TB with odds of 2.05.
- Wait until the odds for this live match for the TM bet rise above 2.05.
The strategy is considered a win-win and is similar to sure bets, but it is much simpler to implement.
For hockey, strategy 6.5 and 7.5 is suitable. To do this, you need to carefully monitor the statistics of teams, finding those that score and concede a lot. Spot bets at high odds are risky, but can bring good profits.
Strategies for basketball are generally similar, but there you need to count not goals, but points scored by teams or individual players.
The total betting strategy has gained wide popularity in game types sports The total strategy for football is very popular among players of European bookmakers, but players of overseas bookmakers prefer to bet on totals in basketball or hockey.
The use of the total strategy, without a doubt, helps players to significantly increase winnings from bets and reduce the risks of loss to a minimum.
To fully understand the total strategy, let’s take one of the matches of the Italian Serie A, between Milan and Juventus. Total – this match is 2.5 goals (over/under odds are approximately equal). That is, if you bet on the total, then at least three goals must be scored in the match, respectively, if on the less, then two, one or zero. Before you start playing according to the total strategy, you need to know that the total can be not only fractional (from 0.5, etc.), but also consisting of integers (from 1, etc.). This means that if the player gets into the total, the player will receive a calculation with a coefficient of 1, that is, a return.
The essence of the strategy of playing on totals
The player must find two matches in the line that, in his opinion, should end in a total less (or more, it doesn’t matter). Then, to increase the probability of success, place three express bets:
- First express– Match 1 – Total Over, Match 2 – Total Over;
- Second express– Match 1 – Total Under, Match 2 – Total Over;
- Third Express– Match 1 – Total Over, Match 2 – Total Under.
Considering that the quotes for totals are on average 1.9, then for each of the above express bets the total odds will be 3.61 (1.9 multiplied by 1.9). That is, the system of playing on totals loses only if these two matches end in a total less. If one of the matches ends with a higher total, we will go to net profit 20 per cent. That is, by betting $1,000 on each express bet, you can win $3,610 if one of the totals matches (+$610).
The main advantages of betting on the total over or under are the relatively low risk compared to betting on the exact score. But total, like other types of bets, requires the player to be attentive and thoroughly prepare for the event.
Utilities for calculating totals
There are several programs freely available on the Internet that help players do successful bids to total.
Among them are:
- Footbet. Focuses on the results of past team matches.
- Totalo. Calculates the average total based on several completed matches. More often
used in basketball. - Oncourt. The program database stores data for several years of participation
athletes in various competitions.
Many beginners do not know what total is in betting. Total - in bookmakers, this is a bet on the total number of: goals, points, games scored in total, or individually by each side in sports competition. There are two types of totals in sports betting:
- total more ( TB), in English-speaking offices it is written as “Over”;
- total less ( Tm), in English-speaking offices it is written as “Under”;
TB (176) — If we bet on TB (176) in this game, then we will win if the total number of points scored by both teams in the game exceeds 176. If in such an outcome both teams score exactly 176 points in total, then we will receive a refund of the bet, and if less, then our bet will lose.
Tm (176)- in this outcome we will win if both teams score less than 176 points in total. If in this case both teams end up scoring exactly 176 points, then we will receive a refund of the bet, and if more than 176 then our bet will lose.
Bookmakers can also set totals rounded to (0.5). For example, consider an NHL hockey match, the New York Rangers are playing against the Boston Bruins.
TB (4.5)— in this outcome we will win if both teams score 5 or more goals in total during the game.
Tm (4.5)— in this outcome we will win if both teams score 4 or fewer goals in total during the game.
As we can see, due to the rounding of the totals to (0.5), we will not have a bet refund as was the case with the San Antonio Spurs game against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Individual totals
Exhibited only for one of the sides of the competition. For example, consider Soccer game Italian Cup. Roma are playing against Lazio.
The screenshot above shows we took individual totals (iTb/m) over and under 1.5 for Roma.
iTB (1.5)– with this outcome, Roma will win if they score 2 or more goals in the entire match.
iTM (1.5)- with this outcome, Roma will win if they do not score a single goal in the entire match, or only one.
At the beginning we said that TB And Tm may look like Over and Under, in the screenshot below you can see what these totals look like in an English-speaking office (for example, the painting of the bookmaker 188bet was chosen).
Most novice players use bets on the winner; more advanced betters use a variety of types of bets. The main advantage of variable bet types for the player is the ability to minimize risks.
One of these bets is the total bet. Let's try to figure it out, total in bets - what is it?
Total is a bet on the number of points, goals, goals, etc. in the match. That is, the player makes a prediction on how many goals will be scored or points scored per match. But important point: Total is a bet not on an exact quantity, but on certain limits of this quantity.
Total bets are very popular with bookmakers; you can also bet on them live. The score in football or hockey most often happens within certain limits, although not without surprises. Therefore, having experience and deep knowledge in this sport, total bets can and should be used.
Types of totals
What types of total bets are there? They are all divided into:
- total is greater than any indicator – total over (TB) , in English-speaking offices it is written as “Over”,
- less - total under (TM) , in English-speaking offices “Under”.
Let's give an example.
What does total under (under) 2 mean in a bet on the Chelsea - Arsenal football match?
This means the player bets that there will be fewer than 2 goals in this match. That is, if the teams play a goalless draw or someone wins with a minimum score of 1:0, then our bet will be winning. If exactly two goals are scored in the match, the amount will be returned - our bet will not win, but there will be no losses. Well, if the teams score more than 2 goals in the match, then our bet will lose.
The same thing applies to the total over (TB) bet. For example, a bet total over (TO) 1 in hockey is a bet that more than one goal will be scored in the match. It is important to know that the total is calculated only during regular time of the match. If the teams tied and extra time was called (overtime in hockey), then the match will be settled as a draw with the corresponding total (regardless of the goals scored in extra time and the outcome of the penalty shootout).
The total can be placed on either total amount goals, pucks or points scored in the match, and on individual total – the result of only one of the teams. For example, in basketball game“Los Angeles Lakers” vs. “Chicago Bulls” total on TB (80) Lakers means that the bet will win if Los Angeles scores more than 80 points in the match (not including overtime!) Also, bookmakers often offer total on cards , corners, penalties, etc. They are calculated exactly the same.
Tennis total
If everything should already be clear with sports where the total bet predicts the number of goals scored, then what is total betting in tennis? In tennis, the total is bet on the number of games or sets in the match. For example, we placed a total bet on TB (22) in the match Novak Djokovic - Rafael Nadal. As a result, the match ended with a score of 2:0 (in sets 6:4, 7:6). As you can see, a total of 23 games were played, which means our bet won.
There are also bets on the total of games in one set and individual totals for each player on the number of games or sets won by him. The advantage of tennis totals is that the player does not have to guess the winner of the match or the exact score. He only needs to assess how stubborn the upcoming match will be and, based on this analysis, make his prediction.
Asian total
There is also such a type of totals as . The main difference from the usual one is that it reduces the risk of loss for the player, since it has a double indicator. It may look different at different bookmakers. For example 2.0; 2.5 or 2.25.
A bet on the Asian total will mean that you are dividing it in half: the total is less than 2.0 and the total is less than 2.5. In the event that in the match for which we bet the Asian total 2.0;2.5, only 1 goal is scored, our bet will be completely winning. If 2 goals are scored in the game, then the first part of our bet TM (2.0) will not work and will be returned, but the second part - TM (2.5) will win, and half of our bet will be multiplied by the coefficient. If 3 or more goals are scored in the match, then our bet will completely lose.
Total in Live
As for live total bets, they are considered quite risky and are better suited experienced players. Exist different strategies according to them, but you need to have vast experience and even developed instincts in order to feel and predict the development of events.
The most important feature of live total betting is that the odds are constantly changing during the event, and by betting during the match, the player is able to win more than with a regular bet before the match. But the risks are also great, and here the main thing for the player is personal experience, practice and knowledge.
Benefits of betting on total
The main advantages of betting on the total are that the player risks less when making a forecast on the winner of the match or, moreover, guessing the exact score. Here you only need to predict the possible outcome of the match; this is what the total means in bets.
Risks are truly minimized. And considering that there is also such an option as Asian total, we can say that total is one of the least risky bets for a player. But it is important to soberly assess your knowledge, experience and ability to analyze forces and alignments immediately before the match.
How to win on totals- betting on the number of goals in a match? What are the key factors to take into account when deciding whether to bet on TM or TB? Vpluse.ru shares its thoughts and practical advice and will help you improve your total betting performance.
Like many others, I started out betting on outcomes and handicaps. I was completely focused on who would win and by what score.
Of course, I knew that there are bets on totals (or, in other words, bets on unders and overs) - such bets when you need to guess how many goals will be scored in the match (more precisely, whether the line of a certain number of goals will be passed or not) . However, it took some time before I really realized the great potential of such bets.
Gradually, betting on totals began to interest me more and more, and by today I have accumulated a considerable amount of experience in such bets. And so in this article I will show you some aspects of these bets to help you improve the effectiveness of your total bets.
So, what is important to take into account in order to win at the totals?
1. The last match doesn't mean much.
Yes, form in recent matches matters. But that's not what she has great importance, which is given to her by many. Especially if you need to outsmart the odds - the way professional bettors do (if a team beats TB2.5 in their last 3 matches, the odds on TB2.5 in their next match are significantly reduced - and, in most cases, the value of such bets is significantly reduced ).
You can open any forecast of an inexperienced bettor on TM or TB, and among the key factors he will probably cite the team’s performance indicators in the last 3-4 matches.
Yes, a club can have several successful matches in a row. But does this enable us to make a truly accurate assessment of this team's true performance potential?
I'm sure not.
To make a more accurate assessment of a team's real, rather than ephemeral, performance potential, we need to look deeper. Always look at the team's performance over the last 20-30 matches, or even longer. The point is that the effectiveness to a greater extent depends on a specific tournament or championship, on the density of the teams’ schedule, on the specifics of football in a particular country, and to a much lesser extent - on a specific team or its latest results. Check global trends.
No, of course, the form of the team in recent matches is also important and must certainly be taken into account. It's stupid to argue with this. However, if you really want to bet on totals successfully, you should not simply follow the general mass of bettors and make decisions based on the team’s last 3-4 matches. I repeat, if a team has produced 3-4 successful matches in a row, then the odds on its performance will be unattractive, and the probability of such a bet will not always correspond to the odds. Is it necessary to take such an event?
Obviously not.
Let me remind you once again of the main rule of betting. When choosing events, 90% of bettors (a crazy number, but I think it roughly corresponds to reality) are guided solely by superficial information - the latest form of commands. Accordingly, after 2-3 successful matches of a team, the odds for TB in its match drop to uninteresting. In turn, for experienced bettors, this is a great opportunity to dig a little deeper, give a more sober assessment of the team’s performance potential and make a more thoughtful decision than a banal reflex to the team’s performance in recent matches.
In a nutshell, look deeper.
2. Home and away matches - heaven and earth
This is obvious, but not all bettors, when thinking about a team’s performance potential, divide its matches into home and away matches.
And in vain - the specifics of home and away matches differ significantly, and the potential for performance, as a rule, does too.
Take a look at any european league- and you will see that in each league there are several clubs that play very productively at home, but away from home they produce ineffective matches over and over again. Or vice versa. For certain reasons, some teams play better at home, while others play away. This is very important to consider when betting on totals.
For example, in the 2010/2011 Premier League season, Blackburn’s home and away performance was very different. In 19 Blackburn home matches, TM2.5 passed 13 times, and in 19 away matches - only 6 times. That is, more than 2 times less.
Therefore, when choosing an over or under bet (“over” or “under”), always pay attention to where the match is played, and the performance of both teams exactly where they will play - home or away.
3. Count passes, not goals.
Again, an obvious rule, but many people neglect it. I often see how inexperienced bettors cite facts such as, for example, “in the last 10 matches of Spartak, 27 goals were scored, on average 2.7 per game, so we need to take TB2.5.”
The average number of goals can be calculated when there is a large sample or when the variance of the results is very small. However, the problem is that even, for example, when analyzing 15 team matches, just one out-of-the-ordinary result can significantly distort the overall picture.
Consider the following hypothetical example. For example, Spartak played 15 home matches with 45 goals scored and conceded in these matches. That is, on average, 3 goals per match. An inexperienced bettor will consider that a bet on TB2.5 in this match is “hardware”.
What if 2 of those 15 matches were high scoring matches? For example, if Spartak won 4:2 in one match, and 5:1 in another. In total - 12 goals in 2 matches. It turns out that in the remaining 13 matches 33 goals were scored - an average of only 2.53. The picture is changing significantly.
That is why, when betting on TB or TM, it is necessary to take into account not the average number of goals, but the number of passes of these same TB or TM. It is possible to calculate the average number of goals if you have a very large sample (for example, if you compare the performance of the German and Greek championships over the last 5 years, you really don’t have to bother counting the TB or TM passes, but simply calculate the average number of goals - the sample allows), but when you are thinking which TB or TM to choose, it is more efficient to count passes.
Look at how many times in the matches of this team the TM or TB passed or failed. In the case of Spartak, we have 3 goals on average, but the number of passes TB2.5 may be below 50% if Spartak played at least a couple of very effective matches. That is, calculating the average number of goals can be misleading and encourage you to choose a bet that is not the most valuable.
4. No need for exotic
Don't start splitting hairs too much. The baseline you should play on to be in the black over the long haul is 2.5 goals. Regardless of the championship or division, it is worth concentrating on the line between 2 and 3 goals scored. This is specific to the sport.
And, as practice shows, value is also here.
Although, of course, value is always where you can find it. And if, after sifting through a huge number of numbers, you come to the conclusion that there is a very high value in betting on a non-standard total - try to make money on it.
But, in general, it is worth concentrating on the line of 2.5 goals - as a rule, in any championship over a long distance (2-3 years), the average number of goals fluctuates between 2 and 3, so your task is to predict whether it will be passed or not the line is exactly 2.5 goals.
And from an analysis point of view, it is much easier to find old odds and other resources for analyzing standard overs and unders than some exotic ones.
5. Compare scoring potential
Of course, analyze the number of goals scored. But if you want to really improve your totals game, get into deeper statistics.
When betting on totals, we always try to predict the real scoring potential of a team in a particular match or competition. And analyzing the number of goals scored is too primitive and ineffective a way to determine this potential.
Look deeper. Try to analyze statistical data that makes it possible to draw up more real picture attacking potential of each team in a particular match.
At a minimum, be interested in the number of shots towards the goal (others' and yours), the number of shots on target (others' and yours), and the percentage of conversion of shots taken into goals scored. The number of goals itself is a very unstable indicator and sometimes shows wild fluctuations, but the same shots to the side and on target are much more stable indicators that allow you to imagine how strong the team’s attack is, even without watching its matches.
Moreover, the general mass of bettors takes into account exclusively the number of goals scored, and bookmakers, when quoting events, one way or another react to the expectations of the average bettor. The ability to more deeply understand and analyze a team's true scoring potential is the path to skillful selection of valuable bets and, therefore, profit in the long run.
6. Pay attention to recent duels
Very useful data - statistics of the latest head-to-head meetings between teams. And not only the number of goals, but also the number of strikes, etc.
These statistics are often surprising. Sometimes two incredibly effective and “fun” teams play boring and practically goalless matches over and over again in head-to-head meetings. Or, on the contrary, two teams play very closed and defensively, but when they meet each other, they arrange enchanting shootouts.
But at the same time, don't get carried away and don't look too far ahead. Matches played 10 seasons ago are no longer relevant, if only because football has changed beyond recognition over the past 10 years. Focus on team results in 2-3 recent seasons, no more.
But, again, draw conclusions only when the teams played either successfully or ineffectively at least 2-3 times in a row. Yes, in last match teams could play 3:3, but if before that they played 1:0 twice, this is not a trend. 3:3 is just one match, and nothing more.
But if teams in the last 2 seasons over and over again produce some 3:2, 4:1, 2:2 and 2:3, then this is already an obvious trend that should be taken into account in your analysis. But, again, this is not a reason to immediately bet on TB2.5 - you need to analyze it in more detail, otherwise the percentage of failed bets will be very high.
7. Simulate the situation
Situational analysis is the most important part of assessing the probability of winning a bet on a total.
Be sure to look at how the playing clubs performed in similar situations.
For example, “Zenit” plays against “Volga” on its field - that is, the unconditional favorite takes on a clear underdog. Be sure to check how effective Zenit is in home matches against underdogs. Does he crush underdogs? Or maybe Zenit, under the current coach, is trying to save energy and win modest victories over obviously weaker opponents with a score of 1:0 or 2:0? Check out how Volga plays away against strong opponents - maybe they defend so tightly that they never concede more than 2 goals?
Again, when analyzing a situation, don't limit yourself to just the teams playing against each other. Take a deeper look - evaluate how, in general, in this particular championship, matches between favorites and underdogs or between two strong middle peasants are going. Perhaps at the beginning of the season matches between teams of a certain level are productive, but at the end they are not.
In short, the deeper you analyze, the more trends and patterns you notice, the more chances you have to create a real picture and, therefore, the more accurately you can assess the likelihood of a particular event. At least, more accurately than the average bettor, whose short-sighted expectations correspond to the odds. And this is the key to successful, profitable betting.
