According to Gazeta.Ru sources, some high-ranking government officials and key ministries are looking for new job, in anticipation of the presidential elections in March 2018, the resignation of the government and the formation of a new cabinet. Some people don’t expect Dmitry Medvedev to remain prime minister, others want to change nervous work to something more calm.

Among the “top” vacancies popular among officials are positions in the management and boards of directors of state corporations, companies with state participation and large government agencies, and positions in international organizations. Among those who do not expect to continue working in government,

they name the head of the government apparatus Sergei Prikhodko and several of his employees, the Minister of Labor Maxim Topilin, the Minister of Health Veronika Skvortsova, Deputy Prime Ministers Olga Golodets and Arkady Dvorkovich.

The latter suffered on September 27 from President Vladimir Putin, who, against the backdrop of the scandal with the VIM-Avia airline, accused the relevant official of “not paying enough attention to transport system": "Perhaps you are too overloaded? We already talked about this".

In addition, according to Gazeta.Ru, Dmitry Medvedev’s head of protocol, Marina Entaltseva, went on a long vacation.

At the same time, the Prime Minister's press secretary Natalya Timakova sharply denied Gazeta.Ru information regarding the government apparatus. “Entaltseva is at work from next Monday, Prikhodko is not leaving anything, and I don’t know a single high-ranking employee of the apparatus who would be looking for work,” Timakova emphasized.

“I sincerely assure you that your sources are lying to you. I wonder for what purpose?” she said.

However, Gazeta.Ru’s interlocutor, close to the Kremlin, does not believe that all this clearly indicates Medvedev’s approaching resignation after the presidential election. He believes that the current prime minister is still first on the president's list as the new head of government.

“But, after information attacks on him, the gap between him and other successors has narrowed. He is no longer absolutely the first,” the source said.

Vladimir Putin, if he runs for election and becomes president, may well leave Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister in order to maintain the current status quo and not strengthen any of the power groups. Instead, the ministerial body will be radically updated.

In the same vein of preserving the current configuration, one can consider the appearance in the prime minister's chair of one of the heavyweight officials such as Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko or presidential aide Andrei Belousov.

But multiple sources say there is a good chance the prime minister will not be from the old guard. Moreover, it is possible that this will happen even before the presidential elections.

The choice of a specific candidate will largely be determined by what agenda Vladimir Putin formulates for himself. It is already obvious that he will not give preference to any specific program social economic development.

The head of state was presented with several documents, in particular, the CSR program of Alexei Kudrin, the “Growth Strategy” of business ombudsman Boris Titov and the government program prepared by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin. The election platform will be compiled from these and other proposals.

Of course, it cannot be completely ruled out that the program of, for example, Alexei Kudrin will be adopted as a basis. The ex-Minister of Finance has all the qualities to become Prime Minister, but judging by the latest statements and actions of the President, the agenda “ fourth term"will include fashionable items such as digitalization and robotization, and a significant part of it will be addressed to a young audience.

The trend towards personnel rejuvenation of the state apparatus fits into this approach.

And the “young agenda” needs a young technocrat prime minister.

Bloomberg, citing several officials, previously reported that 35-year-old Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin “has grown into Putin’s favorite.” Sources of Gazeta.Ru note that he is among the candidates for the post of head of government.

But Oreshkin may have competitors. Recently, Vladimir Putin discussed ways to increase economic growth not only with him, but also with the Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov. And there is also, for example, the head of the Federal Property Management Agency, Oreshkin’s deputy, Dmitry Pristanskov. He has experience working for a large corporation (Norilsk Nickel), and even before that he worked in the prosecutor’s office. Or Energy Minister Alexander Novak, who is very successfully negotiating with OPEC.

An alternative to a young technocrat could be one of the top managers large companies or banks (like the head of Sberbank German Gref and the chairman of the board of Gazprom Alexei Miller) or a female prime minister. The last option is progressive and answers modern fashion for gender equality.

In the system of government bodies, there are not many women with prime ministerial potential: Speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, Head of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova.

Political scientists and various kinds insiders are discussing other candidates, as well as possible government configurations. For example, there is a widespread version that the president can completely eliminate the post of head of government and subordinate the cabinet directly to himself. In this case, according to Gazeta.Ru, a “super ministry” could be created, which would include the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Finance.

Another revolutionary option is the introduction of elements of a parliamentary republic. In this case, the government will be formed by a parliamentary majority, although the powers of the head of state are unlikely to be greatly reduced.

Taking into account the likely transformation of the system of state power, Gazeta.Ru has compiled a shortlist of potential candidates for prime minister.

Young technocrat

Minister of Economic Development

Maxim Oreshkin

Maxim Oreshkin took over as head of the Ministry of Economic Development after Alexey Ulyukaev was detained in October 2016 on charges of taking a bribe. Many believed that the young deputy finance minister was simply given the opportunity to “hold his place” until the presidential elections in March 2018. Less than a year later, Bloomberg named Oreshkin as Vladimir Putin's new favorite, and numerous Kremlin and government sources call him one of the main candidates for the post of prime minister. Maxim Oreshkin is also the developer of one of the programs for the socio-economic development of Russia until 2024. The document has not yet been published anywhere, but Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev personally delivered it to the president, who gave the corresponding instructions to the government.

• 

  Prime Minister from Parliament

  Chairman of the State Duma

  Vyacheslav Volodin

  Vyacheslav Volodin was one of the most influential people in the presidential administration, and some observers called his move to parliament a demotion. But if the Kremlin decides to implement the option of moving to forming a government by parliament, then Volodina’s shares will instantly jump in price. An experienced bureaucrat may well expect to occupy the chair of the head of the cabinet. However, even without a “parliamentary maneuver” Volodin may end up in the prime minister’s chair.

• 

  Professional woman

  Head of the Bank of Russia

  Elvira Nabiullina

  Vladimir Putin has been working with Elvira Nabiullina for many years and appreciates her. As vice president of the Center for Strategic Research, she participated in the development of the program for his first presidential term, then headed this fund, worked as deputy minister and minister of economic development, and assistant to the president. Nabiullina is the first head of the Central Bank of Russia, who managed to achieve fantastic success in the fight against inflation. In September it remained at 3.2%, which is even below the Central Bank’s target level of 4%. At the same time, the Central Bank's policy in the banking sector irritates many, and moving to work in the government would be a good decision for everyone.

• 

  Bureaucrat-economist

  Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation

  Andrey Belousov

  Another former head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Andrei Belousov, today coordinates the work of the presidential administration with economic programs developed by expert centers. He is an experienced official and a competent economist; according to rumors, some influential forces have united to promote Belousov as a counterweight to the “power bloc.”

• 

  Governor-modernizer

  Mayor of Moscow

  Sergei Sobyanin

  The country's chief renovator, Sergei Sobyanin, has established himself as a person capable of making “Europe out of Russia,” despite the costs and public opinion. He learned to handle the latter in such a way that even from very difficult situation, such as the protests against renovation, came out almost triumphantly. The mayor of Moscow won the elections against Alexei Navalny, and in the last municipal elections made the opposition feel like winners, but at the same time United Russia received more than 75% of parliamentary mandates. It is possible that on this moment, Sobyanin is the most effective leader region in the country.

• 

  Effective manager

  President of Sberbank

  German Gref

  One longtime member of Vladimir Putin's team, worked with him back in the mayor's office of St. Petersburg, and was Minister of Economy in the federal government from 2000 to 2007. He transformed Sberbank from a Soviet institution into a fairly modern credit organization. One of those people who constantly generate a reform agenda. At the moment, his favorite topics are the reform of the public administration system, as well as everything related to the digital economy - “big data”, blockchain, etc. He is a “duty” candidate for the prime minister’s chair.

• 

  Famous reformer

  Head of the Center for Strategic Research Foundation

  Alexey Kudrin

  One of the programs for Vladimir Putin’s “fourth presidential term” was written by the TsSR under the leadership of Alexei Kudrin. The former finance minister, who lost his place in the government due to harsh words addressed to Dmitry Medvedev, who was the country's president at that time, believes that it is necessary to reduce spending on defense and the state apparatus, invest more in education, and also advocates raising the retirement age . Kudrin is one of those people who Vladimir Putin listens to, and he is constantly tipped for high positions in power. In all respects he is suitable for the prime minister's position, but requires too much independence in decision-making.

• 

  Vladimir Putin, as you know, loves unexpected moves. So his two prime ministers - Mikhail Fradkov and Viktor Zubkov - were people on whom no one bet. The first one comes from the intelligence services with experience in government (he headed the ministry foreign trade), the second is a St. Petersburg functionary who worked with Putin at the mayor's office. Such people still exist today. For example, the head of the Federal Customs Service, Vladimir Bulavin, served in the state security agencies from 1977 to 2008. Or the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, who at one time headed the presidential administration, worked as deputy prime minister and speaker of the State Duma. In addition, Vladimir Putin may well promote one of the young governors who recently went through the election procedure. There are many young and promising people there - the head of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov (31 years old), the Novgorod governor Andrei Nikitin (37 years old), the governor of Sevastopol Dmitry Ovsyannikov (40 years old), the head of Udmurtia Alexander Brechalov (43 years old). In general, the president has a lot of “jokers” in his deck, and the decision could turn out to be very interesting.

Medvedev's illness fueled rumors of his resignation. Experts commented on rumors that appeared recently about the prime minister’s imminent departure from his post.

Medvedev's resignation 2017: experts assessed the rumors that appeared

Recently, the media and Internet users have been actively circulating rumors about the possible resignation of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, and his recent and sudden appearance at Krasnaya Polyana in Sochi has become perhaps the most discussed topic on the Internet.

Despite the intensification of rumors about the imminent resignation of the prime minister, experts believe that this is unlikely to happen before the presidential elections in Russia.

"Close to power intkkihs Political scientists and political strategists believe that Medvedev’s resignation is unlikely before 2018. It is quite possible to aggravate the situation with radical personnel changes in the pre-election year, and Putin has repeatedly used this technique, but it is unlikely to be used over such a long period of time,” said a commentary on the portal actualcomment.ru.

According to experts, the initiators of the campaign are more likely to pursue other goals.

“The campaign is needed to create a negative background and additional tension before the upcoming discussion of the government’s activities - the next anniversary of the May 2012 presidential decrees is approaching. Of course, the Government has something to criticize for, and some of the tasks set by Putin were never fulfilled. Search for the “extreme” sharply intensified,” the article says.

At the same time, in addition to the possible resignation of Medvedev, rumors appeared about the imminent departure of Arkady Dvorkovich and Igor Shuvalov. According to experts, the authorities may well sacrifice unpopular ministers in order to fend off criticism from the electorate. Another candidate for relegation is Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky.

“At the end of 2016 - beginning of 2017, Dmitry Medvedev’s position was strengthened. And information attacks are not carried out against a person who is about to leave office. Therefore, the current prime minister has a good chance of working in his current post at least until the eve of the presidential elections,” he comments. leading analyst of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications Mikhail Neizhmakov.

In turn, the head of the Institute of Political Sociology, Vyacheslav Smirnov, believes that “Medvedev will remain for a long time,” notes Federal Press.

“It is advisable or not advisable to change the prime minister before the presidential elections. But after the presidential elections, why change? The president has already received his 65-75 percent, and who the prime minister will be is no longer so important,” the political scientist said.

Director of the Center for Regional Policy Development Ilya Grashchenkov is confident that “Medvedev can remain in office until his departure becomes a necessary step to preserve the power of Putin himself.”

“He is a loyal ally of the president, he has proven his loyalty. He has even proven his effectiveness, because under his leadership the United Russia party won the State Duma elections in 2016. He created his own powerful clan, which includes up to 30% of Russians governors. It influences the largest financial industrial groups, such as Gazprom,” the expert added.

https://www.site/2018-01-15/posle_vyborov_prezidenta_anton_vayno_mozhet_stat_premer_ministrom_rf

Very technical prime

After the presidential elections, Anton Vaino may head the Russian government

Alexey Druzhinin / RIA Novosti

After the election of the head of state, the current head of the presidential administration, Anton Vaino, may take the post of Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. This scenario is being discussed in the federal and regional establishment, while Vaino is seen as a more professional and technical manager than Dmitry Medvedev. If this scenario is realized, Dmitry Medvedev could head a joint Supreme and Constitutional Court. Experts accept the appointment of Vaino, but point out the risks of such a decision.

Several sources in the business and political establishment of the federal and regional levels told the site that Vaino’s candidacy is being considered for the post of Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. According to one of the interlocutors, the outlines of the future cabinet of ministers are already being outlined, to which several successful governors may be invited.

An interlocutor close to a large industrial holding says that Vaino as prime minister has been discussed for quite some time, and such a decision will be generally well received among business. “Vaino showed himself to be a very practical, technical, far-sighted leader. He has a broad outlook and, in general, a tougher management style than Medvedev,” says the interlocutor, expressing the hope that such a prime minister would put an end to “excessive liberalism” in the government. An important quality of Vaino is that he does not express personal political ambitions and does not pretend to have independence or political subjectivity.

Anton Vaino: the man next to the president

Anton Vaino headed the presidential administration in August 2016, having previously worked for many years in protocol services and the presidential administration. Even then, there were suggestions that the post of head of administration was a stepping stone for him on the path to the post of prime minister. “Anton Vaino, if we compare his path with the career vertical of Dmitry Medvedev, after some time he may well become a new prime minister - like Medvedev, standing in the middle between different clans,” wrote journalist Andrei Kolesnikov on the Carnegie Center website. —<…>Dmitry Medvedev is still young, but the basic functions he was supposed to perform and the peak of his career are already behind him. The President's personal gratitude ends in 2018. And the President’s personal gratitude to Anton Vaino is just beginning.”

Compensation for Dmitry Medvedev

Dmitry Medvedev, after the elections, can move to the post of head of the united Constitutional and Supreme Courts. The idea of ​​creating a “super court” is being discussed at least recent years seven, periodically encountering resistance from the legal community. Most likely, the reform has been postponed until the elderly chairman of the Constitutional Court, Valery Zorkin, leaves his post - he will turn 75 in February, and his next six-year term of office expires in the same year.

After the presidential elections in Russia, the Supreme and Constitutional courts may be united

If a new “super court” is created, the post of its chairman could become substantial compensation for Medvedev’s loss of the post of prime minister. Such a structure theoretically has power even greater than the presidential one - although in modern times the judicial branch of government is actually relatively weak.

Ideal technical prime

The famous political scientist Evgeny Minchenko, in his “Politburo 2.0” reports on Putin’s entourage, classifies Vaino as a group consisting of Sergei Chemezov, Viktor Zolotov, Yuri Chaika and Sergei Ivanov. At the same time, he does not classify Vaino as a “member of the Politburo”, the inner circle of Putin’s elite, but sees him in the “transition zone” between “candidates” and “members.” Minchenko considers Vaino’s appointment as Prime Minister to be unlikely: the current head of administration has no economic experience at all, he told the site.

Political scientist Andrei Kolyadin, who once worked in the presidential administration, says that in possible solution Vaino's appointment has its pros and cons. “We still have increased respect for the office of prime minister, born of Putin himself,” the expert recalls. “His [former] work as prime minister makes the leaders of all the “Kremlin towers” ​​look with lust at this post. However, there are other versions of the economic reset, in which the prime minister is not a public leader, but a functionary, a technocrat, as they say now. It does not generate the economic future, but implements programs created collectively, including outside the government. In this scheme, the idea of ​​centralization of power is logically completed - there is a president and there is everyone else. He has no equal even in terms of conventional influence.”

Vaino will fulfill this role flawlessly, Kolyadin believes: he can work 24 hours a day, without missing anything, but non-publicly, without attracting attention to himself. “But the prime minister is also a political figure,” says the political scientist. - In our conditions, it also serves as a lightning rod. Lightning bolts of popular discontent strike him if something goes wrong with the economy. And Putin remains beyond criticism - an arbiter to whom millions of the country's residents turn. If the prime minister “goes into the shadows,” then the president will become responsible. In a stagnating economy, this is not an indisputable decision. And the point here is not in the figure of Vaino, but in the general internal political situation,” says Kolyadin.

Other candidates for the post of prime minister were previously named Sergei Sobyanin, Yuri Trutnev, Sergei Chemezov, Alexei Kudrin, Vyacheslav Volodin and other first-tier politicians.

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Political scientist Alexander Shpunt - about which candidates for the post of Prime Minister of Russia in 2018 are most likely and which onethey will create a lie for Dmitry Medvedev

There is a general expert opinion that after the elections (we will assume that the main candidate and winner will be Vladimir Putin, unless aliens come to us and establish a dictatorship of reptilians) the government will receive a new prime minister. But not because the prime minister failed to cope with his tasks, at least from Putin’s point of view, and especially not because Medvedev is unpopular - according to recent polls, the prime minister has the second electoral rating in the country, if Putin does not agree elections. That is, he is the only alternative that the population sees as the head of state.

Thus, the opinion that the prime minister will be changed is not connected either with his work or with his political authority. It’s just that when Putin is in power for his fifth term – including the prime minister’s – for political reasons, it was decided to carry out other large-scale updates. This is, first of all, the composition of the governors: I remind you that 20 of them were replaced during the year, that is, every fourth governor was dismissed. Secondly, changes in the cabinet of ministers.

First of all, this is happening because the course and political agenda are changing. If the previous presidential term was spent mainly in the fight against external threats and economic challenges associated with falling oil prices and so on, then the next term will be built around Russia’s development prospects.

A logical figure who could head the judiciary in the country could be Dmitry Medvedev

So the very fact of discussing the candidacy of a new prime minister is absolutely not surprising. The three Bloomberg figures are not surprising: Sergei Sobyanin, Elvira Nabiullina and Denis Manturov. By the way, there are different lists, and only Sobyanin moves from one to another from time to time. The remaining figures in the lists change. For example, no one had previously named Manturov a candidate for prime minister. Nabiullina was called a couple of times. I myself would not like to predict who is the most likely candidate from this list, but once again I draw attention to Sobyanin’s popularity among the compilers of such lists. However, this does not mean at all that he is guaranteed to become prime minister.

For a very long time, preparations have been underway for the creation of a special position in Russia - the chairman of the Supreme Judicial Presence. The courts are the only branch of government that does not have a single head. Formally, the chairmen of the Supreme, Arbitration and Constitutional courts are equal. Many ordinary people generally believe that the Constitutional Court, like the Supreme Court in America, is more important than the rest. But according to the Constitution this is not the case. He has power only in the field of interpretation of legality and its compliance with the Constitution.

That is why the idea arose to create the Supreme Judicial Presence, which would unite all three courts. And the logical figure who could head the judiciary in the country could be Dmitry Medvedev. He is a lawyer and has experience as prime minister and president. This seems to me the most likely solution to Medvedev’s career movement if he continues his political activities.

The State Duma approved the candidacy of Dmitry Medvedev for the post of head of government, who has been serving as Prime Minister of Russia for more than six years. All Russian prime ministers and their fate after leaving one of the key posts in the government - in the RBC photo gallery.

Photo: Alexander Ovchinnikov / TASS Photo Chronicle

He did not officially hold the post of Prime Minister, but headed the government as President of the RSFSR on the basis of Decree No. 171 during the period of radical economic reform.

In 1991 he was elected president of Russia. Left this post in December 1999.

Photo: Vladimir Fedorenko / RIA Novosti

He did not officially hold the post of prime minister, he was acting. In December 1992, the Congress people's deputies refused to approve his candidacy for the post of prime minister due to dissatisfaction with the progress of economic reforms.

After leaving office, he held the positions of Minister of Economy and Finance of the RSFSR (1991-1992), Minister of Finance (February-April 1992), First Deputy Prime Minister (March-December 1992), acting. Chairman of the Government (June-December 1992) and others. He was a State Duma deputy of the first and third convocations. Died in 2009.

Photo: Alexander Makarov / RIA Novosti

Chernomyrdin's candidacy was proposed by Yeltsin to the Congress of People's Deputies as a compromise. In the late 1990s he was named among possible successors Yeltsin as president. For two days in November 1996, he was acting. president when Yeltsin had heart surgery.

After leaving the post of prime minister, he was a State Duma deputy, special presidential representative for the development of trade and economic relations with Ukraine (2001-2009), Russian Ambassador to Ukraine (2001-2009), and presidential adviser (2009-2010). Died in 2010.

Four months after his appointment, Kiriyenko spoke about the state’s inability to service its loan obligations. The consequence of the default was the collapse of the ruble exchange rate. As a result of these events, the government was dismissed.

Today he holds the post of first deputy head of the presidential administration.

After the resignation of the Kiriyenko government, Yeltsin twice unsuccessfully nominated former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin to the State Duma, after which Yevgeny Primakov was chosen as a compromise figure - 315 out of 450 deputies voted for him.

The president explained Primakov's resignation by saying that his cabinet could cope with the crisis.

After leaving office, he was a Duma deputy, chairman of the Fatherland - All Russia (OVR) faction (in 2000-2001), and for ten years - president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (until 2011). Died in 2015.

He headed the government after Primakov’s resignation, but held his post for only a few months - Yeltsin dismissed him without explanation.

In April 2000, he was appointed Chairman of the Accounts Chamber. Left post in 2013.

Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Igor Sergeev (left) watch the flights of aviation equipment at the 4th International Aerospace Show (MAKS-99)

(Photo: Sergey Subbotin / RIA Novosti)

“I decided to name a person who, in my opinion, is capable of consolidating society and, relying on the broadest political forces, ensuring the continuation of reforms in Russia. He will be able to rally around himself those who in the new, 21st century will have to renew great Russia. This is the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Director of the FSB of Russia Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin,” Boris Yeltsin said in his speech on August 9. From December 31, 1999 to May 7, 2000, Putin also served as acting president; on March 26, 2000, he was elected head of state.

Before his appointment as prime minister, Kasyanov served as finance minister and deputy prime minister in the government led by Putin. The resignation of the Kasyanov government took place on February 24, 2004.

Kasyanov, like the head of the presidential administration, Alexander Voloshin, who was fired before him, was among the opponents of the criminal prosecution of YUKOS shareholders and managers. Now Kasyanov PARNAS is a party that in the Kremlin is classified as a non-systemic opposition.

After Kasyanov’s resignation, Viktor Khristenko served as prime minister for a short time, then Mikhail Fradkov headed the cabinet. The Fradkov government became famous for its extremely unpopular reform - the monetization of benefits. Even under Fradkov, an administrative reform was carried out and the national projects “Health”, “Education”, “Affordable and Comfortable Housing” were launched. Their curator was Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who moved to the government from the post of head of the Kremlin administration. The government resigned on September 12, 2007, at the start of the campaign for the State Duma elections.

He was appointed director of the Foreign Intelligence Service. Left this post in 2016 and was appointed director Russian Institute strategic research.

Zubkov's government actually became a transitional one, and he himself was considered as a technical leader - the main role was played by First Deputy Prime Ministers Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev. They had equal status, since it was not yet known which of them would be nominated for the post of president after the end of Putin’s second presidential term. But Zubkov himself also said he could run for president if Putin entrusts him with this task.

In 2012, he was appointed special representative of the president for interaction with the forum of gas exporting countries.

Took the post of prime minister for the second time after Dmitry Medvedev's victory in presidential elections. He also became the leader of United Russia, although he did not join the ranks of the party. Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev are a “ruling tandem.” The resignation of Putin's second government took place on May 7, 2012.

Photo: Ekaterina Shtukina / RIA Novosti / Reuters

Russia's third president, Dmitry Medvedev, was appointed chairman of the government in 2012, after Putin won the presidential election. ​

On May 7, 2018, Putin officially took office as head of state for the fourth time, after which this is provided for by the constitution. On the same day, Medvedev was asked to remain in his post.

Among all the prime ministers in the new Russian history Dmitry Medvedev holds this position the longest.