This article(especially its second part) has a rather philosophical connotation. How to discover the formula for success? Does it exist on this moment? And what are its indicators?
I’ll say right away that this formula exists. It has quite a lot of indicators that need to be added up in order to ultimately achieve success. I told you about the first indicators in the article “Three Pillars of Success,” so if you have forgotten, I advise you to return to it.
One important indicator is situation analysis. What it is and how winning depends on it, you can read in this article.
Experienced players do exactly this - they bet only on tennis, occasionally choosing two sports and concentrating their attention on them.
But if you have learned this rule, it’s too early to rejoice. It is worth recognizing that bookmakers also use people who are well versed in a particular sport as experts. And believe me, they know what needs to be done. They can change the odds and use other tricks that a player, especially a beginner, will not see.
The second rule says: Don’t count the number of events, rather start from the quality of these events. You shouldn't bet on big number events. Perhaps in this way you increase your chances of winning - maybe something will come up. But isn’t it easier to thoroughly analyze 4-5 events in a particular sport, and only then place bets.
On good analysis you will spend a fairly decent amount of time, but you will also increase your chances of winning. Especially if you read something, collect information about teams, players and game results.
Approach the analysis creatively, without paying attention to the little things.
Don't rush, remember famous saying about haste.
And now I will share with you the formula for success in sports betting:
Analytics + Statistics + Intuition = .
And a good and correct forecast is followed by winning.
To make a correct forecast, you need to understand the game statistics.
Statistics in sports betting are a rather relative thing that cannot be relied upon with complete confidence, but it still needs to be considered.
View the latest game results for each team or player. Pay attention to the results of games away from home and, conversely, at home, on a field they know. Look at the composition of the teams, their physical and psychological condition– read the news chronicle, they sometimes write about divorces and other details personal life players. Don't forget to pay attention to player injuries.
Non-sports factors are also identified during the analysis. They are called indirect. Their importance can hardly be called insignificant - sometimes it is they who build the entire game and in the most direct way influence the results.
These factors include:
Weather conditions of matches,
Fans from each side, their activity.
Greetings, friends. I haven’t published on the blog for a long time, but there were reasons for that, due to the Christmas holidays and the preparation of an article on the topic football match analysis. We have already considered several theoretical questions about how to place bets in this book, and about what not to do when placing a bet at a bookmaker. About this in detail. This knowledge is already quite enough to start carrying out comprehensive analysis football matches for betting. And so, without delaying too long, let’s move on from words to deeds.
Football Match Analysis: Basic Concept
Step number 1: you must “feel” the game
Intuition often becomes the key when choosing matches for analysis. What does it mean? Let's say you are following the Russian football championship, and you know that very soon, in just a few days, there will be a match between Spartak Moscow and Zenit. You should have a prior opinion on this game. You must have an understanding of how Spartak plays, how Zenit plays, you must have a feeling that one of these teams is still closer to victory.
Don't pay attention to the odds. If you have a hunch, take advantage of the line's weakness!
I know many players who, even before setting a line for an event and even without complex analytics, accurately predicted the result of a particular match. But when a line appears with all the scary numbers in the form of 2.5 or more, then most cappers begin to have doubts, they are afraid only of the line numbers.
Look for fun, every day the odds are sky-high: 3, 5, 8 and even 10
Of course, it is possible to analyze football matches without special presentation about how the Dutch Twente or the Belgian Ghent play. Players often encounter this when analyzing matches involving well-known teams in the Champions League against not the most famous representatives of European football. However, only a special premonition of the result brings you one step closer to victory. Today it is not difficult to get acquainted with any team using the Internet. Yes, this takes time. But no one said that betting would be easy?
Step number 2: choosing the best offer
You have registered with a bookmaker, which means it’s time to make deals. I recommend that beginners start with Leonbets. BC Leobets is quite enough to fully play on totals and victories; there is a classic and Asian line. There are also bets on angles, individual totals. Overall, not bad. Previously, the line in the office was much poorer, but the developers made a lot of effort and pleased loyal visitors with new markets.
To carry out the analysis, it is best to open a text editor and make notes, entering important information, which will definitely pop up before your eyes during the analysis
But, if you want to grow into a professional in your field, then you must have at least 4-5 verified accounts in various bookmakers. We considered 2 legal bookmakers and one without TsUPIS.
The best offer can be found using the BetBrain service
This is necessary in order to find the best deal. One bookmaker may offer odds of 2.0 for the victory of a conditional team A against team B, while another bookmaker offers only 1.85 for the victory of team A for the same match. Believe me, at a distance you may not get enough profit, it would seem, because of such a trifle. Indeed, most beginners do not feel the difference between 1.95 and 2.0. However, it exists!
Step number 3: statistical research
Within the framework of one article, it is impossible to talk about what needs to be taken into account and what cannot be thrown into the background. It is also impossible to put in one chapter all the main pitfalls that players encounter when analyzing football matches for betting. There will be at least 2 parts, so if you are interested in the first part, expect a continuation 😉
Novice bookmaker users constantly make mistakes. No matter how well thought out the strategy is, you always need to look at the statistics, follow the news and check various data.
There is a category of betters who treat bets as gambling, they only calculate by chance, this is not correct.
How to analyze football for betting? Until you learn to make forecasts based on important data, you will not be able to increase your bank.
Besides the fact that many do not check anything, there are also those who attach great importance unimportant factors and, conversely, ignores the most important factors.
5 important points when analyzing football
It’s good if you have already found many different sites that help you make forecasts. We have already talked about helpful information It appears on the Internet all the time, you need to use it.
But nothing will come of it without your opinion, and so that you can correctly analyze the matches, remember the most important points:
- The first thing you need to do is look at the general standings; it is presented on many sites. Depending on the chosen strategy and other points, you need to evaluate different data.
- Next you need to determine the tournament leaders (clear favorites). The best situation for a bet is when one of the leaders has lost several games in a row. This may be related to for various reasons, starting with injuries to some players, ending with a seasonal decline. The leaders do not stay as outsiders for long, so they must win in subsequent games. The main thing is to determine real reasons defeats, perhaps in this tournament the favorite will remain at the bottom of the table.
- In football tournaments, it often happens that a team loses by a large margin. It's one thing if it's an outsider, a weak team. It’s another matter if it’s a leader or at least an average player. This is a shame for them, so they will definitely want to get even, the team’s motivation will be at its best. If you see how a strong team won with defeat, and even they played on a foreign field, and next game is coming “at home”, feel free to bet on it.
- Next, information about the upcoming event is analyzed. You need to take into account everything from the location of the players on the field to the running conditions and uniform of each team member. Remember that players play better on their home field; after several defeats, a strong team will try to increase the number of points. It also often happens that when teams occupy subsequent places in the standings meet, the one that was lower makes every effort to get ahead of the competitor.
- Before opening a bet, be sure to check the odds and read the opinions of professionals on various forums. Forecasts based solely on dry statistics often remain unsuccessful, so you just need to apply analysis and remember the patterns. Some of these have evolved into betting rules.
Don’t try to analyze football in general, choose a specific tournament and make predictions based on it. Teams can play differently in different championships and this must be taken into account.
Two dozen sites that will not allow you to go into the red. The services offer free information necessary for betting on football.
Football match statistics on Alexbetting
bet365
An excellent service for watching matches live. Corners, cards, possession of the ball, shots on goal, shots on target, number of attacks, number of dangerous attacks and an indicator of what is happening on the field indicating set pieces, the team in possession of the ball and the area where the ball is located. Provides comprehensive information about several matches simultaneously.
Movement of money on exchanges on arbworld
Match center at Myskor
Analytics on whoscored, squawka and fourfourtwo
Transfermarkt
Absolutely all transitions are tracked, and a database of players from all leagues is maintained. Came into the winter transfer window new player and is going to make his debut in the next match? By studying the profile on Transfermarkt, you can understand how much a newcomer can strengthen the team and influence the match in question.
Judge statistics on worldreferee
News on sports.ru and championat.com
So as not to lose sight important events football world, it’s worth finding a quickly updated news feed. Sports and Championship stand out from the Russian-language segment, but this is a matter of taste. Any tape that does not leak will do. key events. The ideal option is to monitor two or three.
Alternative: sport-express.ru
First week. Bank: $2210.14 Bets: +34-23=2 Profit: +210.14$
Second week. Bank: $2344.34 Bets: +34-41=2 Profit: +134.20$
Third week. Bank: $2573.84 Bets: +46-43=3 Profit: +229.50$
Third week on betting days
1 day. Bets +8-10 +150.40$ -100.00$ Profit: +50.40$
Day 2. Bets +6-6=0 +72.50$ -60.00$ Profit: +12.50$
Day 3. Bets +16-14=1 +239.10$ -130.00$ Profit: +109.10$
Day 4 Bets: +6-9=2 +67.50$ -88.00$ Profit: -20.50$
Day 5 Bets: +10-4=0 +118.00$ -40.00$ Profit: +78.00$
..........................................................................................................................................
Total for 3 weeks: Bank $2573.84 Rates: +114-107=4 Profit: +573.84$
We have already written that to select a match for betting, we use falling odds and monitor the likely value of the event. Today I want to tell you what criteria we use to analyze a match before placing a bet. It should be noted that we usually do brief analysis according to 3-4 parameters. Because there are a lot of matches with tasty odds, but little time, and sometimes you want to bet on everything. You have to hurry, do everything quickly, and haste is only good for catching fleas, as you know. For this reason, the percentage of bets passed decreases. So the “lice check” must be carried out thoroughly, taking into account various aspects of the upcoming match.
So, let's look at the example of one match to see how this happens. We chose the French championship football match, which will take place on February 28, but today some books offer an inflated odds for the guests' zero handicap.
There is a desire to put a zero handicap on the guests, considering the odds to be value ones.
We compare teams according to our criteria.
- Position in the table
- Face-to-face meetings
- Face-to-face meetings at home/away
- Latest games
- Games with higher teams
- Games with lower teams
- Games at home/away
- Sports component
- Movement of bookmaker lines
- Team losses
- Player status
- Field state
- Weather
- Judge
- Add. information
As you can see, we got as many as 15 parameters. Surely something else can be added, but for now let’s look at the existing ones.
Position in the table. Bastia are ahead by 5 points, higher by 6 lines. but the teams have exactly 8 victories each. Based on this parameter, we will still give 1 point in favor of the guests.
Face-to-face meetings. Let's take the last 5 games. 2-2=1 bonus point goes to no one.
Face-to-face meetings at home/away. Since we are going to bet on the guests’ handicap, we consider it from this point of view. And in the last five head-to-head games, Bastia have never won away, only one draw and one defeat. Moreover, there have been no away victories since 1998. There is no point in looking further. The point goes to Lorient.
Latest games. Bastia score.
Games with superiors. Here we are considering Lorient, since it is lower. One loss in five last matches with higher commands. 2 wins, 2 draws. Plus 1 point
Games with subordinates. Plus 1 point for Bastia. 3 wins 1 draw
Games at home/away. No point is awarded to anyone - both teams are at the bottom of the table based on their performance.
Sports component. Lorient needs glasses more, plus 1 point
Bookmaker lines. There is a slight drop in the home team's victory of 5-6% for all beeches. It makes sense to take a closer look 3 days before the match, since usually the so-called popans are placed on the day of the match. So there are 2 options - or a pre-made impressive one, but not very big bet, or not very significant information, because the percentage drop is low. In any case, the beeches inflate the odds on Bastia so that they bet on her too. In this case, a kind doctor would advise monitoring the patient’s condition for another day in the hospital, that is, monitoring the movement of the odds. One point goes to Lorient at the moment.
Other parameters We usually don't check. I think it’s important to watch them if you bet 1 match a week. We have a lot of games every day and if we come across any information, we take it into account. But we don’t look specifically - we don’t have enough time.
What did we do? The score is 4-3 in favor of Lorient. The advantage was due to a slight drop in odds on Lorient. 56% to 44% for Lorient to win. For the beeches, it’s 70% versus 30%. Right now, this means that the odds on guests of 3.35 are really 14% worth. You know, when I compared the teams, I didn’t look at the percentage of currencies that our machine gave out. And now I updated it and looked - 13.42% This is a value profit, and the value index is 1.091 real odds on guests 3.07 I’m shocked! With a small mathematical error, I calculated the currency on a par with the typewriter)) But no, I’m not a genius. The machine and bookmakers use the same data, they just think better, more professionally. But in this case everything coincided.
Here I must say that I took the maximum odds for guests from the marathon. Now let's check with other beeches. And what do we see? Only three beeches give higher than the real odds of 3.07. The rest have from 2.40 to 3.05 Once again we are convinced that there is currency. Moreover, as many have noticed, there is also an arb of 1.20% If you bet on Lorient, the maximum is 1.45 at the Intervetten beech and 3.35 on Bastia at the marathon.
The third and fourth digits are the margin and the time of the last update
But the match is not suitable for our strategy. There is no big drop in odds, and we take value odds when there are clear chances of winning. And when 3 good beeches give money, there is reason to doubt a positive result. I personally am inclined to believe that the match will end in a draw.
Yesterday we didn’t place bets, we haven’t chosen anything for today either, but closer to midnight bets on falling odds may appear - after dinner we’ll keep track of everything)
