Disciplinary regulations of championships. Referee statistics: trends in yellow cards in the RFPL Calculation of the expected number of corner kicks

Yellow cards in football: successful strategies rates

Bets and strategies on yellow cards in football

In addition to the previously discussed strategy for betting on corners, let's consider another option for the game - on yellow cards in football. This type of bet also has a completely predictable basis. It is not for nothing that many players successfully play on yellow cards in football.

can help players achieve profits.

In the ocean of a wide variety of statistical data, for which quotes are accepted at various bookmakers (in the line for football events), traditionally stand out betting on yellow cards. In fact, in a considerable number of matches in Game No. 1, we continually see gross and not always justified violations of the rules, disruption of a variety of attacks, many simulations and other events beyond the letter of the law. For such offenses, arbitrators often issue so-called “mustard plasters”, that is, cards yellow color. Some bettors even choose a narrow “direction” and “specialization” for themselves, playing exclusively on the “yellow color” and betting only on such indicators. In this text, we will try to find out whether it is possible to successfully predict the number of “mustard plasters” and what specific betting options on the color yellow in football are best made in practice.

First, let's look at an example of offers that bookmakers give for options with yellow cards. What bets are open to our eyes?.. These are options such as the opportunity to win by the number of yellows, the choice to win with a handicap according to this indicator, there is also a total total by the number of “mustard plasters” (both “over” and “under” ) and, finally, individual totals.

There are also bookmakers who accept quotes for the fact that this or that football player will definitely write down a yellow card in his liability. And these are definitely specific proposals. True, it also cannot be said that such options are completely hopeless.

Among other things, you can also bet on the mustard total specifically for forty-five minutes; there are quotes for even or odd yellow totals. Options are also offered for which of the clubs participating in the match will receive a warning first, for the “issuance” of LCDs at time intervals... In many ways, such proposals are adventurous, to say the least - frankly delusional options. Largely thanks to such markets, bookmakers try to sow doubt in the player, scatter his concentration, lead the bettor off the right “path” when making a choice, awaken unjustified, artificial excitement, and also, what is most sad in such situations, is to multiply the player’s score by zero...

In this conversation of ours, we will try to discuss much more realistic, regarding the possibilities of such a “science” as forecasting, betting on yellow cards.

Bets on yellow cards in football – for victory

In this case, various bookmakers accept bets on which of the teams participating in the match will earn large quantity yellow. You need to understand that a draw in the LCD is not considered here in principle, because predicting such a scenario is as difficult (or even impossible) as the scenario of an equal number of corners taken...

How to correctly predict which club will be able to record the largest number of “mustard plasters” in its liabilities?

You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to understand that the number of yellow cards shown by the referee always directly depends on how many fouls are committed and how many times the teams participating in the match break the rules. If a lot of fouls occur in the game, and these violations increase in their rudeness and obvious harshness and even cruelty, which ultimately leads to the fact that the match referee takes yellow cards out of his pocket.

When one of the clubs, which has fast and technical players, attacks more, then the opponent of such a team, if he is more slow, plays strong, athletic football, will inevitably foul more and will definitely “collect” a larger number of warnings. In fact, in every championship and competition there are teams that, to a greater or lesser extent, are, as they say, “predisposed” to playing rough, committing fouls and, as a result, collecting a “harvest” of yellow cards. Of course, among the players of such clubs there are always so-called “tough guys” - football players who play especially hard and receive more cards than their teammates. If we turn to the study of statistics (and this must be done without fail), and to the ratio of the “chances” of opponents in a particular match, players are often able to correctly predict the “triumphant” based on the number of yellow cards received.

Options for betting on victory by the number of warnings, taking into account the handicap

If you see such, at first glance, a simple situation in terms of the number of violations and LCDs, as the looming advantage of one of the teams in terms of warnings, then it is no wonder that the level of the coefficient for victory in terms of the number of “yolks” received will not be very high. Do not forget that almost every bookmaker has its own analytical centers, and they do not sleep and carry out their work invariably high level. For an ordinary player, find a good option, the advantage over the offered line, that is, what is called the value bet, is not so simple. Therefore, if the level of the quote to “win” by the number of cards shown is not very high, it can be increased if you take such a victory with a minus handicap (handicap). Of course, as the level of the coefficient increases, the risks also increase. But when a player has great confidence that a particular team will ultimately significantly surpass its more technical opponent in the number of yellow cards received, then such options are worth taking even with handicaps.

Options for betting on totals using mustard plasters

Another promising option for betting on statistical indicators is the total on yellow cards as such. Choosing such a bet assumes that the total number of yellow cards that will be recorded as the liability of both teams will be greater or less than the predetermined total value.

If you decide to predict the total on the LCD, you must certainly calculate the “degree” of intransigence of the clubs participating in the match, their mood for a tough fight, and a rough fight at that. In order for your scenario to come true, the teams that take part in the selected game must be almost perfectly able to go on the attack very quickly, but at the same time, the defense of such teams cannot be blameless. It is better for the defense of such clubs to commit a considerable number of violations in order to stop the opponent’s quick attacks.

Of course, among other things, you also need to evaluate and predict the plot of the match for which you want to choose the total based on yellow cards. So, such teams, undoubtedly, must have one or another, but certainly high, subject of motivation. If it is not very obvious and is not high in general, then any player has no reason to be rude to his counterpart and break the rules more often than “usually”, tearing off certain limbs of each other. If you have such a fight in front of you, then in this case you need to seriously consider the option of betting on TM on the LCD.

If you are “attracted” by TB, you must definitely select several matches that will meet the following criteria. This should be a derby or a game in which clubs from the same region oppose each other, teams whose fan groups have been at odds for several days. These kinds of fights, even if the teams lack tournament motivation in them, are often replete with tough fighting, gross violations on the part of both teams and, of course, warnings in each direction.

Bets on individual team totals based on yellow cards

If we talk about the topic of housing complexes as such, then, in fact, the player is faced with the task of assessing the prospects of a particular club (or clubs) for receiving (in in some cases- vice versa, we're talking about about not receiving), this or that number of “mustard plasters”. When a conditional team plays in a rough manner, and the counterpart is quite fast and technical, it’s definitely worth trying such an option as TB. But there are also cases when this or that team plays “cleanly” on the field and one cannot expect an exorbitant degree of intensity. Such a “scenario” automatically means that it is better to try the individual total on the LCD, and - for “less”.

Of course, if you want to predict the totals on the LCD successfully and make a good “bank” on it, you must definitely improve your knowledge of the “life” of teams and analyze the statistical indicators of the teams participating in the match. At the same time, it is also important that you should look not only at the numerical indicators of clubs in terms of statistics, but also take into account a third party - this means the match referees.

We all know that there are referees who are generous in “issuing” more cards, and there are servants of the football Themis who are stingy in this regard. Therefore, if in one fight all the “stars” come together, and you are sure that the game will be dominated by incredible struggle, rudeness expressed on both sides, constant disruption of attacks, and this game is also served by a stern referee... In a word, take TB and don't overthink it.

At the same time, we cannot stress enough: do not underestimate the factor of the referee as such! His work may be the most important aspect the result of the game in relation to the number of cards. After all, it happens that even in the scenario of a very rough game on the part of both teams, individual judges, who can be called “liberals,” hand out “mustard plasters” very reluctantly. Therefore, in some cases, you can and should make a choice in favor of good quotes for yellow TMs. At the same time, it is worth taking the statistics of the referee in his previous games as the “basis”.

In addition, before you start betting on yellow cards in football, you need to be sure to familiarize yourself with the rules of the bookmaker that you “liked”. The fact is that there are many discrepancies in the topic of LCD, up to completely unexpected interpretations. For example, many bookmakers, when a player is sent off the field for two yellow cards, count only one...

On the principles of betting strategy on mustard plasters

How to achieve maximum results when betting on residential complexes? It is impossible not to highlight several main aspects that will definitely help in this matter. If you want to choose and place correctly, then yellow card betting strategy should become a kind of “guiding star” for you.

There are many players who first pay a lot of attention to individual, in their opinion, “special” teams. This is not a correct point of view. Even if you follow one club and place bets on it, you will gradually find that it makes no difference which team is playing. Much more important is who the match referee is. If the referee is an incorrigible “bad cop” who likes to wave cards left and right, then such a guy will certainly find something to “get into”, even in a harmless, maximally correct game. Therefore, always begin your analysis regarding a particular match by familiarizing yourself with the statistical indicators of the referee who was appointed to the match. Nowadays, finding detailed statistics on this or that “man in black” is no longer a problem.

Another important point is as follows. If you decide to bet on yellows with a higher total, and this is, for example, an indicator of 3.5, remember the following. If the referee of this match, as a rule, is used to showing, on average, five “mustard plasters” per match, then this does not at all mean that your bet will “go through”. It happens that such referees most often take two or three cards out of their pockets, but in a separate game this guy suddenly burst into thunder and showed as many as 12 mustard plasters. Accordingly, this referee's statistics were significantly "skewed." In order to understand whether you are on the right track, you need to count the number of “entries” of the total you need. If you bet on an indicator equal to TB3.5, count the number of times this particular total “entered” as a percentage. In order for an arbitrator to meet the necessary “criteria,” the pass must be greater than 50 percent. In this case, the coefficient should be approximately 2.

Many bookmakers give solid prices when accepting bets on match statistics from players. Yellow cards are no exception. Depending on how top the match is and what bookmaker the player is dealing with, the line may be full of interesting offers.

What types of bets are there on yellow cards?

1. Who will be the first to receive a warning? It is proposed to choose which of the two teams will see the “mustard plaster” first. Usually the quotes do not differ much from the odds on the outcomes. If equal teams play, then the chances of getting a first warning are almost the same. When a favorite plays against an outright outsider, the second team will foul more often, which is why the odds for the first yellow card are lower.
2. Total cards in half and match. The total number of yellows in the match or one of the playing teams (individual total). To bet on “over” or “under” is the player’s choice. You should take into account how rude the teams are, as well as the referee’s style of refereeing - he allows play even with minor fouls or records them. Typically, the bookmaker offers a total of 5.5 cards per match and 2.5 per half, depending on the status of the match and the expected intensity of passions.
3. When will the first yellow card be shown? In the pre-match and live, the bookmaker also offers to guess the time period during which a football player can receive a yellow card. Most often, 15-minute game segments are chosen. It is stupid to bet on a yellow card in the first minutes of the game, since the teams are just starting to warm up and are looking at each other. But in the end, starting from the 75th minute, you can try to catch more total cards. At the end of the match, players may lose their nerves if the team loses. In addition, fatigue can make itself felt - when you don’t keep up with the ball, you have to foul.
4. What will happen earlier in the game. Some bookmakers also have suggestions on what will happen first on the field: offside, corner or yellow will be shown. IN to a greater extent- This is a guessing game, but very often high odds are placed on the card.
5. Which player specifically will receive a yellow card. The most intriguing offer, however, is that this type of bet is found only in very high-status matches. Often in football, yellow cards are given to players who are forced to work mainly in tackling the ball. These are defenders and defensive midfielders who must disrupt attacks and very often in violation of the rules. This concerns attackers and attack line players less, although they can also receive a warning - blatant simulation, conversations with the referee, a flagrant foul in attack, or simply unsportsmanlike behavior.

Betting Strategies

It should be remembered that 100 percent winning strategy There is no bet on yellow cards, as well as on other outcomes. However, you can stay in the black by working with the statistics of both the playing teams and the referee when making a forecast. It is also necessary to accumulate a knowledge base and have a good understanding of the way teams play.

How to bet on yellow cards in a match?

When making a forecast for this statistical indicator, it is important to consider several factors:

1. Who exactly will judge the meeting? For each referee on thematic sports resources there is information about the yellow cards shown - this is what you need to start from when choosing a bet. The arithmetic average does not play any role here - in one match the referee can show a dozen warnings, in another – one or two. Therefore, if you bet more on the total, you need to make sure that in most of the games under his arbitration, the total proposed by the bookmakers broke through. An important role is played by which country and championship the referee represents. For example, Italian and Spanish referees usually whistle a lot - this is due to both their temperament and the characteristics of championships, where there is sometimes more fighting on the field than active attacking actions. The opposite of them are British referees. In English Premier League matches there is a lot of rudeness on the field, but brutal football is held in high esteem there, so the referees only record obvious violations, allowing the teams to play. Referees do not change their refereeing style at international level matches, and their personal statistics can easily be applied to Champions League or Europa League games.
2. Command structure. Almost every team has players who regularly receive yellow cards. Actually, they perform the function of restraining the opposing players on the field, including by fouls, very often overdoing it. Footballers such as Daniele De Rossi, Gary Medel, Nigel De Jong, Denis Garmash, Pepe, Taras Stepanenko, Sergio Ramos (record holder for LCD and CC) rarely leave the field without warning, and if the bookmaker offers individual bets on their cards, then this you can try the outcome.
3. The underdog team in a match against a clear favorite will break the rules a lot and, accordingly, earn cards - an erroneous theory. Clubs with a good selection of players hold the ball very well, the players work with it at speed, and the players of the weaker opposing team do not even have time to put their feet out to take it away.
4. There are a lot of fouls in matches where the intensity of passions is prohibitive. This could be an important championship match, a decisive European Cup match, or just a derby. However, in this case, it is better to wait for the starting whistle and watch the first minutes of the meeting - if the players immediately started hitting each other in the legs, then this will most likely continue for the entire 90 minutes.
5. Directly choosing a bookmaker for this type of bet. It is advisable that the office give a wide range of information and accept bets for the meeting.
6. Financial strategy is also important. You need to be guided by the bank correctly and bet without fanaticism, even if the outcome seems more than predictable.

Summary

By analyzing the statistics of teams, individual players, and knowing the referee’s refereeing style, you can correctly predict the outcome of a meeting based on yellow cards and make a profit in the long run. It is best to place bets on a percentage of the bank or a fixed amount in order to avoid losing on one bet.

Many may have noticed that positive handicappers are increasingly resorting to betting on unpopular events in the line. The classic line involves concluding deals for the victory of one of the teams, or for a draw in the match. However, modern bookmakers offer a whole variety: fouls and gross violations. Gross violations are punished in football with a yellow card. If the same player behaves unsportsmanlike twice, the main referee of the match removes him from the field. Let's talk about which strategy for betting on yellow cards is the most profitable and attractive for players today.

Betting strategy on yellow cards: what is important to consider?

Let me immediately note that everything said in this article is not a guarantee of constant winning. No win-win strategy betting on yellow cards, totals or Asian handicaps. The privateer’s task is to be in the black at a distance. We talked about this in detail in the article. Now let's get closer to the point. A yellow card, or “mustard plaster”, is a warning to a team player by the chief referee for a gross violation of the rules or unsportsmanlike behavior. For those who like to watch football matches, I think everything is clear with this definition. But it’s important to understand the difference; fouls and yellow cards are two different things. By the way, you can also bet on the total number of fouls in a football match, on the victory of one of the teams based on fouls or a handicap.

To successfully place bets on residential complexes, it is important to consider the following:

• Reputation of the main arbiter of the meeting (loyal or categorical)
• Behavior of key players on the field (aggressive or reserved)
• Playing style of specific teams
• The importance of the tournament and a particular match in general

This is the list of criteria that greatly influences the number of “mustard plasters” shown to the players by the referee of the match. It is important to carefully analyze the pre-match situation and use the information available on the Internet regarding the statistics of referees, players and football teams. Let's dwell on each of the above points so that the strategy of betting on yellow cards justifies itself and gives the desired result.

Statistics of the main referee of the meeting

In the article we provided useful resources that greatly simplify the life of a capper. There was a link to a portal with statistics of the main referees of the leading European football championships. Next, we will focus on the statistics given there. Let's look at the work of refereeing in the English Premier League. Although they often come under criticism from football experts and fans, they are an example for many European championships.

The entire list can be divided into three large segments: categorical judges, restrained and loyal. About 90% of the number of yellow cards shown in a particular football match depends on the person with the whistle. It is important to understand and take this into account, and to devote most of the analysis time to familiarizing yourself with the nature of refereeing. As we can see from the statistics of the current Premier League season, Mike Dean, Atkinson, Moss and Oliver are guys you don’t put your finger in their mouth. For any conversation with them, you can easily get an LCD, and for a gross violation of the rules, a red light often lights up in front of the players. In matches involving these referees, it is profitable to bet on TB LCD. That is, bets on yellow cards predetermine the conclusion of transactions on the character and behavior of an individual chief referee, and teams and specific players are taken into account last.

Read also Live corridor betting strategy: theory and practice

But that's not all. We open the detailed statistics of the referee on the game with whom we want to bet. As we can see from Mike Dean’s statistics, he can judge in different ways, sometimes not a single LCD in a match, sometimes ten at once. This is important to take into account and monitor before the transaction. In most cases, bookmakers offer a line on LCD 3.5, 4.5 cards. For example, we know that the conditional match between Swansea and Crystal Palace will be officiated by Mike Dean, the bookmakers have set the total LCD at 3.5, and the odds of 2 or more are good bet. From Dean’s personal indicators we can see that he cannot be white and fluffy for more than two matches in a row during the entire season.

Football player analysis

This is less significant, but also important criterion, which is important to consider for successful game according to the betting strategy on yellow cards. In almost every division you can find a dozen “bonebreakers” who do not spare themselves or other football players. We all remember guys like Andoni Goikacea, who broke Diego Maradona's ankle, Stuart Pearce, Giuseppe Bergomi, Batista, Gattuso, Materazzi. Coincidence or not, most of them played in the Italian Serie A. Andoni Goicaciaea is best known for his performances for the Spanish Athletic Bilbao, in which he was nicknamed “the butcher”. The ball was the least of his worries.

It is quite logical that when there are several “bonebreakers” on the field at once, the chance of TB cards increases significantly, and vice versa, if there are none at all, TM looks more logical.

If you don’t know modern “chain dogs”, open the statistics of football players, which are most often listed on the official website of the league. For example, for nuclear submarines, finding such information is not difficult. Some unpopular league might have problems with this

One thing can be said, the temperament of some football championships is favorable to TB - the Balkans are masters of football provocations. And in many championships Arab countries We are used to deciding the outcome of matches through brute force. True, the judges there are predisposed to this.

Playing style of specific teams

Gradually we move from the most significant factors to the less significant ones. The strategy for betting on yellow cards does not oblige you to comprehensive analysis specific teams, but if you find a team that uses brute force to install a coach, this must be used. There is no specific relationship, for example, the better a team plays, the more careful it is in terms of rule violations. Just like not many weak teams prefer to play rough against a strong opponent. But in the lower divisions of England there are teams whose game is built on combat and brute strength. But the judges there allow you to play like that.

Gate. Of these three, it remains to consider only betting on residential complexes. In football, players constantly break the rules, but this does not always lead to a “mustard plaster”. Today we will figure out how to bet on such markets so that they turn out to be successful.

Winning bets on yellow cards are impossible without a competent approach. It is necessary to have basic knowledge about football, for example, it is obvious that defenders break the rules and get yellow cards much more often than attackers. Before moving on to the analysis, you should understand the types of bets on residential complexes that bookmakers offer.

What are the bets on yellow cards?

Card betting is one of the most popular markets for statistics. Players who prefer this type of bet will always have something to choose from to choose the desired outcome, and the analysis will definitely not be wasted.

Betting on the outcome

Every league has its own “terminators” who receive LC in almost every second game. If they are on the field, it is in favor of TB. If they are not there – in favor of TM.

Teams

Outsiders do not always earn more residential complexes than the grandees. If the favorite begins to lose during the match, there will be more fouls from him than usual. Players try in every possible way to change the course of the confrontation, and this sometimes leads to frequent violations. An example is the match PSG - Barcelona in the Champions League, when the favorites, losing, began to foul more often and “won” only on the LCD.

Previous games

Study how many cards the referee gave to players in previous rounds. If in several matches the LCD turned out to be more than usual, then in the next, expect a TM. And vice versa: if for last period There were few of them, there will definitely be TB. I think the referee has a kind of “norm”, for example, 3-4 “mustard plaster” per game.

Look at the statistics of the latest meetings. Let’s say that if a grassroots referee demonstrated an order of magnitude more LC in two rounds, then in the next round feel free to choose TM, unless other factors contradict this.

Conclusion

Pledge successful bets on LCD lies in understanding the playing style of football players, a competent approach to analysis and the correct interpretation of statistics.

22/02/2016

Review

On the Corner-stats website we offer card statistics in football matches, as well as tools for analyzing them. To view corner statistics, open the "Cards" tab on the tournament, team or match page.

By analyzing card statistics, you can more accurately predict the result, total or handicap of cards in upcoming football matches. First of all, this will be of interest to players at bookmakers, who will be able to make money from it by placing bets. Many bookmakers offer different rates by cards in football matches: outcome of the match by cards, total cards, handicap by cards, removal and others. The Corner-stats service allows you to customize the selection of matches and card statistics in the way you need to analyze specific type rates.

Tournament page

Using the menu in the left column of the Corner-stats website, you can select the football tournament you need.

The main table of a football tournament page contains summary statistics of the teams that played in a given tournament. Below is the designation of the table columns:

Please note that the table can be sorted by different indicators in ascending or descending order by clicking on the table of contents.

At the top of the page there are filters that allow you to create pivot table statistical indicators of the tournament cards of your choice.

You can access tournament card statistics right now!

Team page

To analyze the statistics of a team’s cards in detail, click on its name or select from the drop-down list on the left.

By default, the match table on the team page shows all matches of the current season. The designation of the columns in the table is as follows:

Use live search to filter the match table by specific characters, such as team name:

The above table with matches summarizes the average data for these matches:

At the top of the page there are filters for team matches by season, tournament, field. Read more about the "Count-minute" filter below in the corresponding section.

You can access card statistics by team right now!

Match page

You can open the page of the match you need from the list of team matches or from the tournament page. Using the top menu " ", you will see a list of football matches that will start soon..

On the "Odds" tab, the bookmaker's odds are usually located at the top (more details in the "Odds" section).

• Personal meetings - last matches between the teams of this match
• Last 20 matches of team 1
• Last 20 matches of team 2(to analyze a team’s matches in more detail, go to its page by clicking on the team name)
• Similar matches of team 1(more details in the "Similar matches" section))
• Similar matches of team 2(more details in the "Similar matches" section)

Odds

On the "Cards" tab you have the opportunity to view bookmaker quotes for a given match and compare them. We collect odds for the outcome by cards, handicap and total cards in the match. Please note that for the bookmaker Bet365 it is shown highest coefficient for the same events (for example, Victory 1 and Handicap (-0.5)).

Filter "Count-minute"

We present to your attention a unique team match filter "Score-Minute" (open the team page to use this tool). The filter allows you to select matches of a team with a given score at a given minute. For example, you can filter Borussia Dortmund matches when they were tied 1-1 at 65 minutes. Please note that the Score-Minute filter can be combined with other filters, such as limiting matches to two last seasons. This tool will be very useful if you place bets during the game (live bets).