IN this material Let's figure out how a bookmaker's office works and consider the basic principles.
For each event, the bookmaker offers outcomes. To each possible outcome events correspond to their coefficient. For example, let's take Soccer game Barcelona – Real Madrid. Barcelona's victory displayed with odds 1.95, this means that if you bet 1000 rubles on Barcelona’s victory, if it is successful, you will receive 1950 rubles. Real Madrid's victory is assessed coefficient 4.10, which means that if you bet on the “cream” to win, you will earn 4,100 rubles, and draw 3.40, it is already clear that in the event of a draw, you will receive 3,400 rubles. That is your winnings are equal to the amount of your bet multiplied by the odds offered by the bookmaker.
The bookmaker sets the odds for a particular outcome based on its own forecasts of the probability of the outcome. The coefficient may change depending on incoming news and the bets made by the office’s clients. However, If you have already made a bet, then the odds at which it was accepted cannot be changed(except in cases of a refund).
The job of a professional bookmaker is to predict various events, as well as provide its clients with the opportunity to bet on the options offered by the bookmaker. The bookmaker’s task is to determine as accurately as possible the probability of the outcome of a number of different events..
Bookmakers work solely to make a profit, and this profit does not depend on the number of lost bets, but on how correctly the bookmaker set the odds. That is, even with the most incredible outcome at first glance, the bookmaker should make a profit.
The formation of coefficients is influenced by two groups of factors: analytical And heuristic. Various kinds statistics and mathematical calculations belong to the analytical group, and the opinions of experts in a particular field belong to the heuristic group. By combining the information received, the bookmaker determines the probability of the outcome of the event. Visually it looks like this: P1(team 1 win) coefficient 1.54, X(draw) coefficient 4, P2(team 2 win) coefficient 10.
Assume the probability of victory "Teams 1" is estimated at 65%, then the odds will be 1.54 (1/0.65=1.538), the probability of winning "Teams 2" equals 10% (coefficient – 10), and the probability draws 25% (coefficient – 4). This "pure odds", which you will never see in the line, because then the bookmaker will not receive any profit. The final odds will be lower for each indicator depending on how much profit the office expects to receive.
Most players most often choose to bet on the favorite of the match, which means that the bookmaker, if the favorite is successful, will be at a loss, and he cannot allow this. The solution is quite simple - lower the odds on the favorite. This is a kind of insurance against “loading” the line towards the favorite. But since it is impossible to completely predict the behavior of players, the line is adjusted in one direction or another before the start of a game event.
Bookmakers never lose long term. How do they manage to do this? Let's try to get to the heart of this topic.It goes without saying that for a profitable activity, a bookmaker must offer the “correct” odds for itself. But they must also satisfy gamblers who come to place bets at the bookmaker. The key to a bookmaker's success lies in the ability to correctly determine the odds of any sports match. Of course, this is not a task for one person, but for a whole team of professional sports analysts, working in the most different types sports The most crucial moment is to determine the initial odds for the sporting event, which will be used for further analysis. The entire further course of events depends on this decision of the experts. In good betting shops, expert forecasts are usually correct in approximately 70% of cases (weak analysts are not hired).
What is margin
First, the analyst calculates the initial “net” ratio.
Here's an example:
Let's say there is a game on neutral territory for the teams Barcelona and Real Madrid. The analyst calculated that the probability of any outcome of the upcoming match is 33.33 percent and gave odds for each outcome: W1- 3.0 Draw – 3.0 W2 – 3.0
But gamblers, unfortunately, will not see such attractive odds, because the bookmaker’s analyst will include a margin in them, which is the source of income for all bookmakers.
Margin is the bookmaker's bread and butter. Let's see what she is like. Everything is very simple, the bookmaker will simply give out more low coefficient, instead of: W1- 3.0 Draw - 3.0 W2 - 3.0 he will most likely give: W1- 2.4 Draw - 3.0 W2 - 2.4.
Thus, no matter what outcome you guess, you will receive less money than expected according to the theory of probability, because the odds take into account the bookmaker’s margin - that is, the commission.
Margin size
The size of the margin included in the odds by the bookmaker is approximately 8-9 percent.
Example:
We have two events with a probability of outcome of each event equal to 50 percent.
Logically, the odds for each event should be equal to 2. But the bookmaker offers us the following: Event 1 odds 1.91 / Event 2 odds 1.91
Here the margin is 9% Since 2-1.91=0.9.
Now, if you bet $100 on event 1 and $100 on event 2, then no matter the outcome, the bookmaker remains in the black by $9! He will take $100 from the losing side and give $91 to the winning side. 100-91=9. The bookmaker works on this principle, that is, it makes a profit from the margin, which it includes in the odds.
Convenient types of bets for the bookmaker
Surprisingly, express bets are very profitable for the bookmaker. Although express bets look extremely attractive to novice players and avid amateurs, they are difficult to predict correctly and therefore win less often than regular bets. Express trains, especially from a large number of events, attract beginners and those who like to tickle their nerves, supposedly high coefficient. But if you observe, the probability of winning an express bet is always less than the probability of winning a regular bet with comparable odds. Professional gamblers always say that if you make an express bet, there should not be more than two events in it. If you really like betting on express bets, we recommend that you familiarize yourself with betting strategies using express bets.
How does a bookmaker work?
The very principle of building a bookmaking business is very similar to a casino in which mathematically everything is done in favor of the casino. But do not forget that the bookmaker can make mistakes and end up in the “minus” and experience “drawdowns” of his financial reserves. This can happen due to an incorrect odds offered to players or especially big win any player who bet a large amount by a huge factor. But as a rule, large offices have a huge reserve of money to cover losses and get out of such situations.
How the bookmaker changes the odds
Of course, everyone knows that as the match progresses, the odds move in one direction or the other.
How it works?
It’s not difficult to understand - the more bets bettors make on Outcome 1, the lower the odds on this outcome will become and the higher the odds on the opposite Outcome 2 will become in order to attract more more money in Game. It's like a scale.
Let's say Real Madrid fans start betting on their favorite team to win.
Experts working in the betting will immediately take this into account and begin to lower the odds for this outcome. This will be done proportionally and balanced in such a way that the odds for a draw or victory for the opposing team, Barcelona, will begin to increase. This is how a bookmaker works. In other words, we can say that the bookmaker expresses through the offered odds public opinion bettors, which is not necessarily correct.
WHAT IS SPORTS BETTING?
Betting on sports is an interesting, exciting and gambling activity. The principle of sports betting is quite simple: a bookmaker (bookmaker) offers players to place a bet (place a bet) according to the odds it has established on the outcome of a sporting event.
Simply put, each outcome of a sporting event has its own odds set by the bookmaker. For example, in the tennis match Dementieva – Kuznetsova, Dementieva’s victory is estimated at 1.6. That is, having bet 1000 rubles on Elena’s success, if she wins, the player receives 1600 rubles. For the victory of Svetlana Kuznetsova, the quote is correspondingly equal to 2.2, and if she succeeds, you can get 2,200 rubles.
The bookmaker sets the odds based on the probability of a particular result according to its assessment. Odds tend to change constantly. Their changes are influenced by news and the opinions of players, people who place bets. But if the bet has already been made, then winning odds can no longer change.
Any bookmaker tries to present as much as possible more types sports and betting options on sporting events, trying to please every player’s desire. For example, who will score the first goal, or how many will be in the match yellow cards and fouls or the exact score of the match. Football is in first place in terms of the number of bets among bookmakers, followed by hockey, basketball and tennis. Sports bets are placed by fans on their favorite teams, professional players
For a beginner, sports betting may seem like a very simple and profitable activity. In reality, everything is not so easy. The result of the competition is influenced by many different factors: the physical condition of the players, motivation, mood after last match, referees, weather conditions, whether the game is at home or away, etc. Therefore, cases when a clear favorite loses to an outsider are not uncommon.
The profession of a bookmaker is to predict sporting events and provide players with the opportunity to bet on the outcome of a game. The bookmaker's skill is to determine as accurately as possible the probability of the outcome of a particular match. How many people - so many opinions. This is where the subject of intellectual debate arises - each player has his own plan for the upcoming match. Moreover, both the player and the bookmaker can win, and the outcome of the bet becomes known only after the end of the sporting event.
HOW DO BOOKMAKERS WORK?
Bookmakers operate solely for the purpose of making a profit. And, contrary to popular belief, the bookmaker’s profit does not depend on the number of lost bets, but on correctly set odds. This means that in case of any, even the most unexpected, outcome of the event, the bookmaker will remain profitable.
Let's look at how the coefficients are formed. First, analysts determine the teams' chances. This is being carried out different ways, which can be divided into two groups: analytical and heuristic. Analytical are mainly statistics and mathematics (probability theory), heuristic are expert assessments. By combining the results obtained in one way or another, the probabilities of the outcome of the event are derived. Let’s assume that as a result of the work of analysts and experts, the following probabilities of outcomes were obtained:
That is, out of every one hundred thousand rubles bet by all players, 75,000 were bet on victory 1, 15,000 on a draw and 10,000 on victory 2. Most players most often bet on obvious favorites, making up most of the express bets based on such outcomes . What will the bookmaker get for each hundreds of thousands of dollars invested by players in the event of different outcomes?
That is, if the favorite wins, which happens most often, the bookmaker will suffer losses. This is of course unacceptable for any business, and the bookmaker is obliged to exclude even the theoretical probability of such a situation occurring.
To do this, he must artificially lower the odds on the favorite. The bookmaker does not know in advance exactly how the bets will be distributed, but he knows for sure that the players will “load” on the favorite, therefore, for insurance, he overestimates the probability of the favorite’s victory.
In reality, neither the real chances nor the distribution of funds by players can be accurately calculated; there is always some error. Therefore, bookmakers try to initially lower the odds for the favorite in order to guarantee their profit, i.e. determine the teams' chances and add 10-20% to the calculated probability of victory for the favorite. And as bets are received, depending on their actual current distribution, the odds are varied so that the profit is greatest.
For bookmakers, profits depend only on the professionalism of the analysts setting the odds. Therefore, with 1000 bets of 100 rubles each, a player can win, quite possibly, a million rubles, or lose all his money. Success in sports betting directly depends on the player’s intelligence and the results of sports matches independent of the bookmaker.
20.11.2017
A bookmaker is a company that accepts bets on the outcomes of certain events, most of them sports. The work of the offices is based on calculating the probability coefficients of a particular outcome, and not only based on real probabilities, but taking into account the built-in margin. In other words, the evaluation occurs in such a way that the bookmaker has the opportunity to obtain the maximum profit for any outcome.
Example with a coin
For a better understanding, let's use famous example with a coin. As you know, when tossing a coin, there are only two probable outcomes: heads and tails. Let's say a bookmaker decides to accept bets on this event.
Considering that the probability is absolutely the same, the coefficient for both heads and tails was equal and amounted to 2.0. Two players, one of whom bet 1000 rubles on heads, and the other - 1000 rubles on tails, began to expect the result. Let's assume the coin lands on heads. In this case, the bookmaker will have to pay 2,000 rubles to the first player who made the correct prediction. But is this reality?
Certainly not. Because if that were the case, then bookmakers simply would not exist. In reality, the coefficient would hardly exceed 1.90. For the most part, even less. That's why net profit bookmaker's office would be at least 100 rubles. This is the very cream that bookmakers skim. Therefore, when choosing a bookmaker’s office, you should Special attention pay attention to the “margin” criterion, since at a distance even a difference of 0.1 plays a huge role.
Every self-respecting player should have an account with several bookmakers, which will allow him to choose favorable odds for betting. In order not to waste time analyzing and comparing bookmakers, pay attention to our rating of reliable bookmakers - any bookmaker on their list is worthy of your attention.
Battle with the bookmaker
Even at the very beginning of your acquaintance with bookmaker companies, you need to understand that searching for an answer to the question “How to beat a bookmaker?” a useless exercise. This is due to the fact that the bookmaker remains in the black no matter the outcome.
By and large, we're talking about only about those funds that someone else lost (the second player in the example with a coin). Therefore, you just need to be prepared that if in the end there are more winning predictions than losing ones with an average odd of 2, then this will be enough to be in the black.
In addition to the mood, it is important to choose a gaming and financial strategy for yourself, as well as follow a number of recommendations:
- Constantly improve your own knowledge.
- Don't resort to big bets all in.
- Study analysts' forecasts.
- Identify inflated odds.
- Play only in reliable bookmakers.
Verified and legal bookmakers:
As noted above, analysts of bookmaker companies are directly involved in the formation and adjustment of odds, having an excellent understanding of certain subtleties one or another type of sport, as well as knowing the basic laws of the mathematical model.
Correctly set odds are the key to the success of the office. Bookmakers pay special attention to real-time odds, which are monitored by live analysts. Interestingly, today the automatic method of conducting live matches is predominantly used.
Betting exchanges
Note that professional cappers place bets not in bookmakers, but on betting exchanges. The most popular exchange at the moment is Betfair. The essence of the game on the stock exchange is that cappers play against each other, independently setting odds that are sometimes an order of magnitude higher than those of bookmakers. However, do not forget about the commission on winning bets, which is usually up to 5%.
Today, the exchange has more than four million members and performs more than seven million transactions per day. An excellent service has been created for beginners, describing in detail all the principles of operation. However, it will not be easy for a novice player, since professional players will try to displace the inexperienced player.
Any bookmaker works to make a profit. Contrary to popular belief, a bookmaker’s income depends not only on the number of lost bets, but also on how correctly the odds were set. Setting the odds correctly means that even with the most sensational outcome of the match, the bookmaker will still remain in the black.
Bookmaker- This
A bookmaker's office is an institution that organizes and conducts various types gambling. Employees of the bookmaker who work directly at the betting points accept cash bets and also make payments on winning bets.
Most bookmakers in currently They accept bets not only on events in various sports disciplines, but also on events related to politics, culture and television. Serious bookmakers have their own analytical centers that are engaged in the formation of odds for events - here each person is obliged to have a perfect understanding of the sports discipline on which he has to work.
The first bets began to be placed back in Ancient Rome- they took place at the hippodrome. A little later they began to place bets on cockfights. If we talk about sporting events, betting on them began already in the 19th century. Later, people began to place bets on almost anything that generated any action. Then a profession called “bookmaker” appeared, which in the old days was nicknamed “professional debater.” Of course, this happened in good old England, which is still the leader in the number of bookmaker companies and betting volumes.
In the CIS countries, the first bookmaker's office appeared in Moscow in 1992. They gained their popularity quite quickly in all countries of the post-Soviet space, because our people are prone to gambling.
Any novice bookmaker client, of course, considers himself potentially successful. Such people often prove to others that they can make money through betting. However, in reality we see that in the long term, the vast majority of cappers end up in the red. And all because they start betting on luck, but this is not Forex or roulette - in the office you need to play with your head. To significantly increase your chances of success, you need to analyze events and use strategies. If you learn to be patient, show will, think sensibly, can stop betting in time and leave self-confidence behind, then you will have a good chance of turning your bets with a bookmaker into your stable, maybe even high income.
Formation of odds
First, analysts calculate the opponents' chances. There are quite a few ways to do this, which are divided into analytical and heuristic. Analytical methods are statistics and mathematics (probability theory); heuristic methods are based on the opinion of experts. From a comparison of the results, the probability of a particular outcome is derived. For example, analysts and experts receive the following probabilities of outcomes:
Although mathematical probability is expressed as a number from 0 to 1, for greater clarity we will express it as a percentage. After converting the probability into odds:
This is usually called “pure odds” or “fair odds”, but you will never see these odds in the betting line, otherwise the bookmaker will not make a profit. The odds for such events in the line will look something like this:
Let's move on to probabilities, and we get the following picture:
The sum of the probabilities is, oddly enough, not 100, but 115 percent, and the difference of 15 percent is the bookmaker’s profit, which is called “margin,” and this margin is included in the odds.
The bookmaker sees that players' bets are distributed between 3 outcomes in this way:
If all players bet a total of 100 thousand dollars on the match, team 1 would win 75 thousand, a draw 15 thousand, and team 2 would win 10 thousand. Almost all players bet on clear favorites, and based on these rates, express bets are made. What does the bookmaker get from every 100 thousand dollars in the event of one outcome or another?
If the favorite wins, which logically happens much more often, the bookmaker incurs a loss. If we assume that the calculation of the teams’ chances was carried out correctly, then out of every hundred matches 55 will end in the victory of the clear favorite and the bookmaker will suffer a loss of -130.625 thousand dollars, 25 matches end in a draw, and the bookmaker’s profit will be 141.250 thousand. 20 matches end in the team’s loss -favourite, and the bookmaker’s profit will be 100 thousand.
After a hundred matches, the bookmaker's profit is 241,250, however, it risks 130,625 thousand (for every million dollars bet by the players). However, the defeats of the favorites, which in this situation bring profit to the bookmakers, will not be distributed evenly.
From this, a situation is likely to arise that in all hundred matches the favorite will win, and the bookmaker’s losses will amount to 237.5 thousand for every million dollars bet by the players! For business this is an unacceptable situation, so the bookmaker must exclude even theoretical occurrence such a situation.
To do this, it artificially lowers the odds for the favorite team. The bookmaker cannot know in advance the exact distribution of bets. However, it is known for sure that most players will bet on the favorite, and therefore, in order to be on the safe side, the bookmaker will overestimate the probability of the clear favorite winning. Here she has two possible situations: either she will have to go for an overestimation in such a way that it is in percentage terms higher than the share of bets on the favorite team, or in such a way that it is lower. For example, a bookmaker decides to set the following odds:
In this case, with the described distribution of bet amounts, we have:
Regardless of the outcome, the bookmaker's office guarantees a profit! If in one hundred matches the victories and defeats of the favorite are distributed in accordance with the plan, then the profit will be 138.225 thousand for every million bet by the players.
Now let's see what happens if the overestimation of the probability of the favorite winning turns out to be a percentage lower than the percentage of bets made.
How will the profit be distributed with the same proportions of bets made?
The principle of operation of a bookmaker Again, an option arises when the bookmaker incurs losses. Therefore, it is better for bookmakers to overestimate rather than underestimate the favorite. And this is not done even on the basis real chances favorite, and depending on the distribution of odds formed by bets on the event. And players, as you know, often bet on favorites. The odds and probabilities that correspond to the betting proportions used in our example would be, taking into account the margin:
And in this case, it no longer matters how the opponents’ chances are actually distributed, because for any outcome, the bookmaker’s profit will be 6.25% of the total bet amount. It is important for a bookmaker to first of all know how players’ bets are distributed!
In practice, it is impossible to calculate either real odds or the distribution of funds between players; an error always exists. Therefore, bookmakers initially they lower the odds on the favorite to guarantee your profit. In other words, they add 15-20 percent to the favorite's chance of winning. Based on the distribution of bet amounts, the bookmaker changes the odds to achieve the maximum possible profit.
