What to expect in the coming years. American clairvoyant Denton Brinkley

One of the fashionable pastimes of political scientists and futurologists, not only “sofa” and “kitchen”, but also quite professional ones, is the creation of scenarios of what will happen if Russia does not exist.

Writers, journalists, in a word, everyone who in one way or another thinks of themselves as the “ruler of thoughts” also take part in this. For what reasons could such a catastrophe occur? How do these thinkers imagine the fate of the vast space in which Russia is spread today? And what awaits the whole world if this suddenly really happens?

Causes

The authors of theories of the possible disappearance of Russia from the world map, or at least a strong reduction in its size, include futurologists Sergei Pereslegin and Georgy Malinetsky, culturologist Igor Yakovenko, writers Andrei Burovsky and Mikhail Weller, as well as journalists, including Oleg Kashin. Psychotherapist Kashpirovsky also made his mark in this field, and, of course, Western analysts were also involved. Among the main reasons for the future collapse of Russia and its possible disappearance from the world map, they include the difficult demographic situation, the predatory policies of the oligarchs tearing the country apart, the plurality of ethnic groups, cultures and religions that make up Russia, and which must inevitably, over time, enter into conflict with each other, finally, social inequality and external interference.

What will Russia disintegrate into?

The scenarios are quite different, but in general they are similar. Most of the experts named and not named in this review believe that everything will begin with the secession of the North Caucasus republics from Russia, which will immediately fall under the influence of the ISIS organization banned in Russia or another terrorist structure similar to ISIS. Following the North Caucasus, the Far East and Siberia are expected to fall away from Russia. Some people think it will be two public education, others number more, but they all agree on one thing: these territories inevitably fall under the influence of China, Japan, Korea and the United States. As for the European part of Russia, disintegration and fragmentation are expected here too. Everyone considers the separation of the Kaliningrad region a done deal. The rest of the territory seems to most to be more or less fragmented into small states. In some forecasts, the division occurs along the borders federal districts, in others - to the north and south, in others - to the western and eastern regions. Most, however, agree that the country, which retained the name Russia, will shrink to the size of several central regions, returning to the state that it was under Ivan III.

It is clear that these processes will inevitably be accompanied by serious shocks. There are several scenarios here too.

The scenario is pessimistic

The collapse will be accompanied by civil war. Christians and Muslims, or Russians and non-Russians, or just residents can fight among themselves different regions, let's say "southerners" versus "northerners". A civil war in a country like Russia will inevitably cause major geopolitical shifts. Each side may have allies abroad who would be willing, not without cost, of course, to provide support by sending troops or in some other way. In addition, civil war is a very possible humanitarian catastrophe, since in our conditions harsh climate interruptions in the supply of fuel or electricity will instantly lead to the collapse of the infrastructure. This will send crowds of refugees to more stable regions of the world. In no case should we forget that Russia is a nuclear power. In conditions of civil war and chaos, a wide variety of forces will strive for the coveted “nuclear button,” and it’s scary to imagine what will happen if, for example, Islamic fundamentalists succeed in this. However, there are fanatics not only among Islamists. I don’t even want to think about what this scenario will threaten humanity with.

Optimistic scenario

Considering the presence of these same nuclear reserves, political scientists and futurologists still prefer to consider a milder scenario for the development of events. In fact, it is unlikely that any country will dare to attack Russia or send troops, taking advantage of the situation of internal unrest. Nobody wants to receive a nuclear strike on their territory. Therefore, according to prediction experts, most likely, the collapse of the country will follow the model of the “Belovezhskaya Agreement”. Everything will happen calmly, without any special incidents. In Russia's place, up to one and a half dozen or more puppet states will arise, subordinate to the interests and influence of stronger neighbors. China will expand its territories to the Far East and the Khabarovsk region, Japan will take the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin. The map of Eastern Europe will also change noticeably. Moldova will go to Romania. Poland will remember the times of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and perhaps a state will emerge that, along with Poland, will include part of Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic states. Ukraine will no longer be of interest to its Western patrons as a factor in weakening Russia. It will be left to the mercy of fate, and the inevitable process of fragmentation will also begin in this country. The North Caucasus will fall under the influence of Turkey. In general, it will be very good for everyone, since the age-old dreams of our good neighbors will come true to snatch a piece of Russian territories with our natural resources.

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine “site”! Today we will try to answer the questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much the ruble and dollar will cost in 2019; when the crisis in Russia ends and so on.

After all, the current economic situation is causing unrest among Russian citizens due to its total instability . The stability of the national currency raises concerns, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are embarrassed by rising prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and are worried about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners are concerned with one question: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions; even experienced analysts hesitate to make specific forecasts.

Some experts insist that our currency will gradually strengthen, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which one is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will learn our vision from the forecast of the ruble and dollar exchange rates.

Do you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions that are carried out Western countries, also influence the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even based on the policies of the Central Bank.

The motive for introducing sanctions against Russia was political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. Residents of the Crimean Peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to secede from unitary Ukraine. So, in 2014 a referendum was held, which attracted more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and the further annexation of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities And act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the residents of Crimea they wanted it themselves separation from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, candidate countries for the European Union, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit Russian banks' access to global capital. They also influenced the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil And aircraft manufacturing.

In particular, the restrictions apply to the following companies in the Russian oil and gas industry:

• Rosneft;
• Transneft;
• "Gazpromneft".

The following Russian banks were hit by sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• "Gazprombank";
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

The industry of the Russian Federation was not spared the sanctions:

• "Uralvagonzavod";
• "Oboronprom";
• "United Aircraft Corporation".

The sanctions consist of a prohibition for residents of the European Union and their companies to carry out transactions with securities whose expiration date more than 30 days , assistance to Russia in the production of oil products.

In addition, Russians are prohibited transactions with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also prohibited the transfer to Russia technologies, equipment And intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civilian industries.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies, which were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any EU country, not to mention entering the EU territory, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, to companies subject to sanctions, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide financing for a period of more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to support Russian military forces to Russian territory. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft that were developed by US forces or that contain elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G device.

America has banned the issuance of a list of Russian banks loan for a period of more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, the freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade and economic relations among companies and banks and so on.

As we see, the sanctions imposed are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something to ensure the normal functioning of the country and stabilize the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to refuse to support the militias in Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral position and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. In response to Russia's sanctions, the European Union is introducing retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns Middle East countries .

By cooperating, you can issue joint bonds and investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia establish your export. Trade in petroleum products is currently at a low level, and all because prohibitions And sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia achieve its share of stabilizing the national currency over time.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of Ukraine turning into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same moment, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play a role. You shouldn’t expect such actions from the US government; by bending to Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is already not at the highest level.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019

Over the past year, the exchange rate of the Russian national currency has fallen by more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall in the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will behave in the future. This is especially concerning for people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people worried about the situation in the country.

The ruble exchange rate is falling, and it is unknown whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury items.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in prices for oil and natural gas, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the falling exchange rate of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the exchange rate through inflation targeting. basis The method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. alarming
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration And economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in the countries of Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should regain its former price value 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia, which will affect the increase in the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in the fall of 2019.

2nd scenario - Alarming scenario

Collapses in the oil market only worsen the situation regarding the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average dollar exchange rate to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the American dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

Our government’s plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not include stabilization measures at all. national work. Export development is where the government’s efforts are directed.

Of course, exporting goods will bring additional income to the country as Russia copes with its production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the harvest collected by Russian farmers and land workers.

You should not expect the ruble exchange rate to stabilize. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, then we can recall that the percentage of expectations for a decrease in the level of internal gross product, was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of the next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The decline of the economy cannot have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage decline in GDP, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as a basis. And also the terms and conditions of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the influx material resources to the country that has a detrimental effect on the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble exchange rate will begin to lose its current position.

There will be several reasons for this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in oil prices on the world market. This primarily concerns natural gas, which through its exports brings a large share of the country’s income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• the second factor is the geopolitics of the country. The recent annexation of Crimea led to the emergence of economic sanctions from Western states, which also prevent the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of capital from the country.

In such events, GDP is expected to decline to an indicator that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd scenario - Realistic scenario

As the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015 show, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible escalation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only intensify.

As for the price of oil, in this situation it will remain the same price of 40-60 dollars per barrel. The GDP level will approach zero, and according to some analysts and World Bank forecasts, GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator. A fall GDP will be approximately 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors

In the current situation, every Russian citizen monitors the behavior of the ruble on the Forex currency market. Many factors influence the depreciation and rise of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Ruble growth factors

Among the many reasons, we can highlight those that have positive effect on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the benefit of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . Investment by Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies helps stabilize the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is poorly developed. Perhaps, soon, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while receiving income in the form of dividends.
• Oil price. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. Russia enriches its state budget with oil sales. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income.
• Population's attitude towards the national currency. It’s not immediately clear what the meaning is in these words; people treat him normally. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the ruble exchange rate. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country’s lending policy will become, and accordingly, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest money in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, residents of the Russian Federation, like residents, so Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high production volume will make it possible to meet not only the needs of the country, but also to export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors in the fall of the ruble

Along with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They devalue the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, and our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our cash savings into another currency, we ourselves, without knowing it, provide stability of a foreign state and its exchange rate. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the position of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the decline of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest money in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their low welfare.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It is impossible to influence this. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a strong position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening of the country's national currency. America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble is losing its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation of the exchange rate in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. The game of the population with exchange rates. Most Russians have a desire to make money on exchange rates. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, after looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people ensure secure storage of their savings through a stable currency. At moments when the ruble exchange rate fell sharply, huge transfers were made exchanging Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures a fall in the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble exchange rate will soon stabilize.
4. Measures Central Bank . During the depreciation of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall in the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still; industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sales is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. Equipment that remains from the times Soviet Union, does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to people's distrust of domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing a particular product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for approximately the same price category as domestic producers. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, by giving preference to goods from another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country’s balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - expert opinion

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said: 2019 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts on this matter.

Former Russian Finance Minister, Alexey Kudrin , believes that the country's economy is subject to a huge recession in the near future. This opinion was inspired by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

Modern economist Vladimir Tihomir , I completely agree with Kudrin’s opinion. According to the economist, the economic recovery and the achieved level of stability are only a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolai Salabuto . Occupying the post of head of the Finnam Management company, he associates the reason for this situation with the rapid fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the level 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that this was influenced by several factors:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the price of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export “black gold” on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby “cutting off the oxygen” for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which completely depends on the environment and economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development by government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, whose policies will be associated with certain activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that today’s measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to rethink the bank’s policy.

But this will not in any way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of the Finnam Management company, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors mentioned above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , director of the ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors behind the depreciation of the ruble can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses their original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These include external sanctions from other states and the country’s external debt.

The behavior of these factors is impossible to predict, but the analyst is confident that the price of oil will $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall in the ruble. This price will further reduce 10-15 % from today's value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more encouraging. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting one. The analyst says that already in 2019 the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of one of them, you need to understand for yourself the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - news and forecasts

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is displayed as follows: when the dollar rises, oil price decreases, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2019. The External Economic Bank forecasts the cost at 6 $0 per barrel and above . At the same time, the resistance level for this price is at $70, and the support level is at $42.

Thanks to the news about the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $69-70. If these levels are “broken”, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. If it breaks down $58, it goes into the range of $53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of the absolute minimum over the last decade and was equal $28 per barrel. That is, the price of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: latest news + expert forecasts of leading banks

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position relative to other foreign currencies, such as dollar And Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble has lost most of its value.

Some foreign countries, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the value of their national currency. Foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and the exchange rate of the national currency, in particular.

Fluctuations in the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts regarding the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and a dollar will cost approximately 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the price of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion on the country’s economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some countries, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the opportunity to enter the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will be equal to 55-58 rubles, if OPEC's policy will help raise prices per barrel of oil to $75-80.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows, sent to our country, will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid exhaustion production capacity, as a consequence of the reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that an industry such as the oil and gas industry will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a consequence of the inability to operate at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect currency relations, which will not benefit our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, does not give the most optimistic forecasts for the exchange rate of the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to forecasts of one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2019 the national currency exchange rate will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be around $70 per barrel.

All world banks They all agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting a rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to boost the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up patience And baggage of actions, because you shouldn’t expect a quick return to the previous situation.

7. Frequently asked questions about ruble and dollar exchange rates

Question No. 1. Is it true that the dollar will be abolished in 2019?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the American currency has been agitating the population for some time. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all kinds of actions to reduce dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of presidential adviser, proposed his plan for economic development countries. One of the points of the plan is precisely to reduce dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory blow.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the financial world system. State policy is primarily aimed at eliminating dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the Russian national currency.

For example, trading a national resource of Russia, like natural gas, for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to depreciate in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell American treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will instantly collapse.

General Director of City Express Alexey Kichatov estimates the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov states that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties he expects Russian people, since the savings of the population, in to a greater extent, are stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial dollar disappearance in Russia . According to the analyst, this will take a lot of time, which will ultimately lead to the emergence of two shadow turnover rates. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to combat the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two exchange rates were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question No. 2. What is the forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate for the coming week?

When forecasting the exchange rate, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future; they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change or stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, since there are no special reasons for stabilizing the exchange rate.

Question No. 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?

The ruble exchange rate, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in national economy. Moreover, the more investments are made in Russian capital, assets and the economy, the more reliable the position of the national currency will be. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is associated with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected by import balance And export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must be at an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from a country exceeds the import of imported goods, this makes it possible to enrich the state budget.

Speaking about this balance, it is necessary to remember that America has largest national debt . In addition, the United States has a large budget deficit, which creates the country's internal debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar as a world currency should fall.
But questions arise as to why, given this situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why do expert forecasts not come true year after year, and the dollar remains the most popular currency in the world? ? What consequences could there be of a falling dollar?

If the dollar does fall, another currency must come to replace it. It is necessary to think about what currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts give Euro to replace dollar. But we should not forget that the currency of the European Union is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first and foremost Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

America's large debt to these countries is also to blame for this stagnation. The euro also depends on the dollar, or rather on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were experiencing a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets fell in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even during the crisis, when everything depreciated, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use it as a currency basket. exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs to preserve accumulated funds and possibly increase them.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. Using the dollar as a currency basket promotes stability and demand for America’s national currency.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If you believe the rumors that the cause of the economic crisis was one of the “powerful moves” on the part of America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

As a method of maintaining the economic situation in America in 2008, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period there was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, since the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar exchange rate will not fall.

A fall in the dollar is only possible in the following cases:

1. sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of American currency and abandonment of the dollar as a currency;
2. If countries stop trading using the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method, selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then use the same currency to pay another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country uses its national currency, rather than the dollar, when trading and purchasing, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity; it will become less in demand.

Question No. 4. Will the dollar rise in 2019?

We have already described in detail possible forecasts for the dollar exchange rate. The dollar can either rise or fall. This also includes dependence on the Fed’s decision. Analysts and experts predict that the Federal Reserve is planning to raise interest rates in the near future, which could negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our views on the ruble and dollar exchange rates, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

*Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future

From the last technical analysis It follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts yourself. Nobody knows the exact forecasts!!!

If you want to start trading on the Forex market yourself, we recommend using the services this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + video on the topic

Analyzing all the forecasts of world-famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a quick stabilization of the Russian national exchange rate. You just need to stock up on a certain amount of patience; the ruble exchange rate will strengthen soon.

But despite such rosy prospects, it is worth understanding that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be influenced by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors undertaken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the residents of Russia. According to official statistics, in the last two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. The waste was stopped, but if oil prices continue their decline, Russia will face full budget deficit.

After all, the country’s income will drop significantly, and to maintain the functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable funds are required. The opinions of experts and leading banks are, of course, promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for the level to improve wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of gross domestic product.

But we need to look at today’s situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making deposits to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that everyone is looking for the answer to the questions - “What will happen to the dollar in the near future?”, “What will happen to the ruble?”, making their own forecasts and relying on their own principles.

If you have questions or suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video

The world didn't end in 2012, but it was just one of many prophecies that don't end with 2012. What awaits us in the coming years and what threats await us?

2014 - Cloud wreaking havoc

The 10-million-mile-long object was discovered by NASA's Chandra Observatory in April this year and is classified as "acid fog," according to scientists. The mysterious cloud is expected to reach Earth by 2014. The only positive news surrounding this discovery is that thanks to it, a number of previously stated assumptions in physics are being confirmed. "The bad news is that the complete destruction of our solar system is inevitable," said Albert Shervinsky, an astrophysicist at the University of Cambridge.

According to Shervinsky, information about the approaching threat is kept secret, and NASA, trying to avoid panic, is in no hurry to disclose its find. At the same time, the astrophysicist is convinced that if the cloud does not turn away from its trajectory, then our galaxy will shrink to its previous size, i.e. to the primordial state of the birth of the universe.

2015 - End of the 9576-year cycle

Using modern data from archeology, history, astronomy, geophysics, ethnography and many other sciences, he actually laid the foundations for a new worldview concept - cosmoarchaeological.

All this happens through severe interepochal natural shocks: floods, fires, changes in the tilt of the earth's axis, and for people - through wars, invasions, mutual destruction, etc.

The year 2015, which marks the turning point of as many as three - 1596 -, 7980 - and 9576 - year cycles (and many smaller ones included in these large and significant cycles), should mark the beginning of a qualitatively new era both in the life of the cosmic organism of planet Earth and in the existence human community.

2016 - Global Flood

Speaking to reporters recently in Washington, Hansen emphasized that the world has long crossed the dangerous line of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere:

"We have reached the point where emergency has acquired planetary proportions. We are very close to a turning point in the entire global climate system. If we miss it, systemic changes will begin on a huge scale, and the process will spin out of control. We have already reached one point of no return, and beyond summer season We could lose all of the Arctic ice cover. This will happen due to an imbalance in the energy balance of the planet,” says Hansen.

According to him, in 2016 the Arctic ice will completely melt in one summer season, which will lead to the flooding of vast areas.

2017 - Death of the world according to the prophecy of Saint Matrona

Mother said - “The people are under hypnosis, not themselves, a terrible force lives in the air, penetrates everywhere, before swamps and dense forests were the habitat of this force, since people went to churches, wore crosses and houses were protected by images, lamps and consecration, and demons flew past such houses, and now people are also inhabited by demons due to unbelief and rejection of God.

And also, apparently, about the last times, mother said this: There will be no war, without war you will all die, there will be many victims, you will all lie dead on the ground. In the evening everything will be on the earth, and in the morning you will rise - everything will go into the earth. Without war, war goes on!"

2018-2019 - Nuclear and bacteriological warfare

“The Big Star will boil for seven days.
Such a cloud will rise from it that the sun will double.
The big dog will howl that night
When will the Pope change his residence?

According to the prophecies of Nostradamus, we are threatened with famine on such a scale that many will be forced to eat forest roots, and some will even become cannibals. We are threatened with wars using chemical, bacteriological and nuclear weapons, as well as the worst inflation that humanity has ever known. We will suffer the economic and social consequences of religious conflicts caused by fanatics. In other words, an era of monstrous terror and endless fear is coming.

However, not everything is so gloomy, since the same Nostradamus, having predicted disasters in the coming years, still believed that after some long period after such suffering, humanity would live happily and travel in interstellar space.

2060 - Apocalypse according to Newton

At the exhibition entitled "Newton's Secrets" you can see a manuscript on which the specific date of the end of the world is written - 2060. It is known that the great physicist determined it by deciphering the Bible. It took him almost 50 years.

Experts learned that Newton indicated the exact date of Armageddon at the end of 2002, when a manuscript with notes was discovered. It, in turn, was kept for many years in the Jewish National Library in Jerusalem among the sheets of the undisassembled archive of the author of the law of universal gravitation.

Scenario of geopolitical surrender of Russia

The geopolitical capitulation scenario may begin to materialize even before the 2024 presidential elections. And although the likelihood of such a development of events before the 2024 presidential elections is small, it would be reckless to completely discount it. Most likely, such an evolution will become possible in the event of mistakes and miscalculations of the country’s political leadership in economic and personnel policies, as well as pressure from various oligarchic clans and individual influential individuals pursuing their narrow interests.

At the initial stage, the scenario of liberal revenge will proceed unnoticed, but then will lead to a sharp aggravation of the internal political situation in the country. First, the oligarchy and bureaucracy, subject to Western sanctions, will increase pressure on the president, pushing him to concessions to the West, in particular, for the surrender of Donbass following the example Serbian Krajina. The Western partners of the Russian oligarchs promise the president significant relief from sanctions if Donbass is reintegrated into Ukraine.

Liberal wing of government under the pretext of economic difficulties, it will take a number of unpopular economic measures that cause indignation among the population. Non-systemic pro-Western opposition organizes protests demanding the lifting of anti-Western counter-sanctions “to alleviate the situation of the people.” Part of the dissatisfied population will join these actions. In this way, the illusion will be formed that the economic situation is worsening due to the confrontation with the West, and the people allegedly demand that this confrontation be stopped.

In these conditions, the president follows the lead of pro-Western circles and agrees to the surrender of Donbass in a beautiful wrapper "implementation of the Minsk agreements" The Russian delegation to the UN is instructed to vote in the Security Council for a resolution on the start of a UN peacekeeping operation in Donbass. UN peacekeeping forces are being deployed into the territory of the DPR and LPR, blocking the border with Russia and cutting off these self-proclaimed republics from Russian assistance. Then special forces units of the Kyiv regime infiltrate the territory of both republics and begin to take control of key infrastructure facilities. Attempts by the armed forces of the DPR and LPR to prevent them from doing this are declared a violation of the truce and are blocked by UN forces. After some time, all key objects of Donbass are under the control of Ukrainian units.

Help from Russia is not coming. The authorities of the DPR and LPR realize the hopelessness of their situation and, under the escort of UN troops, are leaving the territory of Donbass. They rush after them thousands of refugees. The flow of refugees into the territory of the Russian Federation increases sharply when the Ukrainian Armed Forces and volunteer battalions begin total purge territory from disloyal elements. All this is widely covered in Russian and foreign media. As a result, the authority of the president and his entourage in patriotic circles of the Russian Federation and law enforcement agencies is falling sharply.

Meanwhile, the West is taking only symbolic steps to lift sanctions and declares that they can be completely stopped only after solving the Crimea problem. The liberal government of the Russian Federation continues unpopular economic measures, excise taxes, tariffs and other levies on the population are increased. The flow of refugees from Donbass to the territory of the Russian Federation further aggravates the economic situation.

Inflation increases to 6–8% per year. In an effort to curb it, the Central Bank increases interest rates, which negatively affects industrial lending and consumer demand. Under the pretext that it is necessary to stop the socio-economic crisis caused by the flow of refugees from Donbass, and that relations with the West are supposedly moving towards normalization, liberals are cutting defense spending. This causes justified discontent among the military and the entire security bloc. Reductions in military spending are inhibiting production growth, especially in industrial and high-tech areas. The Russian economy is entering a stage of stagnation. The rate of economic growth is reduced to 0.5% per year.

The West demands new referendum in Crimea under international control. To do this, Moscow needs to formally withdraw the republic from the Russian Federation. The unclear reaction of the authorities to these demands of the West leads to the fact that mass unrest of people begins in Crimea, intensified Crimean Tatar separatists. Some Crimean law enforcement officers, having seen the consequences of the situation in Donbass, are taking a wait-and-see approach. The most unstable of them begin to seek contacts with the Kyiv regime with a view to receiving indulgences in the future in exchange for certain services. The political situation in Crimea is destabilizing.

Against this background, the patriotic opposition in Moscow is intensifying, calling on people to mass rallies in support of Crimea. She receives unexpected support from liberal and pro-Western circles, who allocate financial resources to hold rallies under the general slogan of the president’s resignation. A series of thousands of protest rallies are taking place in the capital. In conditions of increasing political instability, the population, small and medium business, in order to protect his cash savings, begins to buy currency. In the absence of a control system over exchange currency trading, this leads to a sharp increase in currency speculation and a drop in the ruble exchange rate by 50%.

After this, the Central Bank is forced to intervene to support the ruble exchange rate. He manages to stabilize the ruble at around 100 rubles per 1 US dollar, spending 1/3 of his foreign exchange reserves on this. Meanwhile, the fall in the ruble exchange rate causes new round inflation, which increases to 10% per year. This, in turn, leads to a further decrease in the purchasing power of the population and further slows down economic growth. In fact, the economy is entering a stage of negative growth.

Meanwhile, the Kiev regime, having established control over Donbass, is moving its military strike force to the borders of Crimea. Inspired by the victory in Donbass, the Ukrainian military is in a fighting mood. Russian troops in Crimea, on the contrary, are disoriented and depressed. Under these conditions, the Ukrainian side begins shelling Russian border guards and nearby settlements in Crimea. The first killed and wounded among Russian military personnel appear. However, Russian troops in Crimea have a very limited response to these attacks, since no order comes from Moscow push back the aggressor with a decisive blow. Ukrainian saboteurs are attempting to blow up a bridge across the Kerch Strait. They manage to disable the railway part of the bridge, which leads to additional difficulties in supplying Crimea with necessary goods.

Protests by the population of Crimea are intensifying; some Crimean activists are heading to Rostov, Krasnodar, Voronezh, and Moscow, where they are joining the protests for the preservation of Crimea as part of Russia. These rallies merge into one stream with rallies of a socio-economic nature and rallies of non-systemic opposition for the resignation of the president. But counter-rallies, like the rally on Poklonnaya, no longer occur, because the patriotic wing of Russian society denies the president further support.

The president is left alone with the growth of mass protests controlled by liberals. Official structures, such as United Russia and the ONF, in the conditions of a split at the top, turn out to be ineffective. At a certain stage, clashes between protesters and the Russian National Guard occur, as a result of which the first victims appear. The West is once again tightening sanctions. Pro-Western circles around the president are demanding the resignation of security ministers and generals “responsible for the bloodshed” and the appointment to these positions figures acceptable to liberals and the West.

This moment will be critical for the fate of this scenario and all of Russia. At this moment, the president still has the opportunity to win back the situation and, relying on loyal security forces, introduce a state of emergency, dissolve the government, arrest protest leaders and the most active representatives of the “fifth column”, place the media under strict control, transfer administrative power in large cities to military commandant’s offices, declare that Crimea is an integral part of Russia, and make a decisive break in relations with the West. This will complicate the economic situation in the country even more for some time, but will allow save Russian statehood.

If the president succumbs to pressure from pro-Western circles and changes the leaders of the security bloc, then he will become completely dependent on the liberal clan and will not be able to make independent decisions. Eventually he will be forced into early retirement. In this case, liberal revenge will take place in the form of a palace coup. Early appointments will be made presidential elections, where with the support of United Russia the liberal candidate hiding behind patriotic rhetoric will win.

It is also possible that the president will not succumb to pressure from pro-Western circles and will not replace security forces loyal to himself with others, but he will not take decisive measures to suppress the participants in the conspiracy. This decision will somewhat delay the outcome, but won't prevent it. The West will accept more and more sanctions. The economic situation under the leadership of the liberal wing of the government will continue to deteriorate.

The President's Unwillingness to Give a Strong Military Response Kyiv’s armed provocations in Crimea will further undermine its authority in the security forces. And if the top of the security forces continues to remain loyal to the president, then at the lower and middle levels of the security forces this loyalty will cease to exist. Ordinary military personnel will refuse to actively fight the protesters. After this, control over major cities will begin to pass into the hands of the opposition. An increasing number of people from the president’s inner circle are beginning to lead double play. Suppressing the opposition by force at this stage will no longer be possible. The president will have to resign and call early elections. Thus, liberal revenge will take the form of “ orange revolution».

After the change of power in the Kremlin, solving the problem of Crimea will take some time, but by 2025 it will be returned to Ukraine in the form of an autonomous republic, which in the future will again lose its status. This will be accompanied by a mass flight of the Russian population from Crimea and the seizure of their property by pro-Ukrainian elements. The Black Sea Fleet will also be forced to leave Crimea. All this will be a serious burden for the Russian economy. The number of refugees will exceed 3 million people. The construction of new port infrastructure and housing for military personnel will be required. This will be done extremely slowly due to cuts in the military budget and in some ways will be reminiscent of the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Germany under Gorbachev.

The Russian economy, according to this scenario, will not actually grow, since economic growth in the first two years will give way to stagnation and then decline. Accordingly, GDP at PPP will remain approximately at the 2016 level – 3.862 trillion. dollars. At the same time, Russia will drop from sixth to eighth place in the ranking of the world's largest economies. Inflation will be about 10%. National income per capita according to PPP will decrease slightly in absolute terms, but significantly relative to other countries. According to this parameter, Russia will drop from 77th to 84th place in the international ranking. Due to the further commercialization of education, the quality of human capital will decline even further. A dictatorship of liberals will be established within the country. They will sharply reduce the armed forces and the National Guard, but will significantly increase the number of private security structures that will suppress popular protests against increasingly harsh economic policies.

After the “Crimean issue” is resolved, the West will lift most of the economic sanctions, but will impose an indemnity on Russia to “compensate for losses” caused by the “Russian annexation of Crimea” and the war in Donbass. This indemnity will be calculated tens of billions dollars and will include both direct financial subsidies to the Ukrainian budget and supplies of Russian gas and oil at reduced prices, as well as free access of Ukrainian products to the Russian market.

While oligarchic structures of the Russian Federation will be able to compensate for their losses by increasing prices and tariffs, Russian medium and small businesses will find themselves in a difficult situation, since the purchasing demand of the population will decrease, tariffs, excise taxes and other levies on entrepreneurs will increase, and the Russian market will again be flooded with cheap Ukrainian products and goods from the EU, counter-sanctions against which will be lifted.

There will be a serious reduction in production in the defense industry due to a sharp reduction in defense spending. Accordingly, the industrial chains supplying this sector of the economy will also stop, approximately just like it was in the 90s. The large number of refugees from Donbass and Crimea will continue to be a serious burden on the state budget. Accordingly, the Russian economy will not only fail to recover, but will also continue to decline at a rate of 1% per year. Inflation will remain at 10% per year, and even higher in the consumer sector. People's living standards will continue to decline.

In the same time the lifting of Western sanctions will be short-term R. Less than a year after the Crimean issue is resolved, Washington and Brussels will put forward conditions regarding Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, threatening new sanctions. Transnistria will fall first. By 2030, the liberal government of the Russian Federation will agree to the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping contingent from there. A strict blockade of the republic will be introduced on the Ukrainian side. The West will demand the introduction of UN peacekeeping forces into the republic. When voting on this resolution in the UN Security Council, the Russian delegation abstain according to the Libyan version.

The backbone of the UN peacekeeping force in Transnistria will be NATO troops. Faced with an irresistible force, the PMR capitulates without a fight. UN troops will ensure the departure of the PMR leadership, but middle and junior managers will not be able to do this and will be subject to reprisals from the official Chisinau. Moldovan nationalists will begin a massive cleansing of the territory of Transnistria from “pro-Russian elements.” Russians will be expelled from all positions in the system of government, education, law enforcement. Their business will be confiscated in favor of the new Moldovan nomenklatura. Any resistance will be harshly suppressed. The number of Russian refugees from Transnistria will be about 200 thousand people in addition to 4 million refugees from Donbass and Crimea.

The situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia will be even more critical. The West will present an ultimatum to Moscow to revoke recognition of the independence of these republics and withdraw from there Russian troops. This will be opposed primarily by North Ossetia, but also by Adygea, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia. Moscow will be torn between the position of its regions and the threat of Western sanctions. However, after some hesitation, the interests of the pro-Western oligarchic elite in Moscow will prevail. Without consultations with North and South Ossetia, Russian troops will leave the region. They will also be withdrawn from Abkhazia. However, Georgia's attempt to send its troops into South Ossetia and Abkhazia will encounter armed resistance from the local population. North Ossetia will provide military assistance to its fellow tribesmen and will actually leave the control of Moscow. The Adyghe peoples of the North Caucasus will also provide assistance to the Abkhazians. The war with Georgia will become trans-border.

The West, under the threat of new sanctions, will demand that Moscow restore order on the border with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moscow's attempt to implement this plan will lead to military clashes between Russian troops and Caucasian volunteers. Moreover, the Russian military will not show much enthusiasm in this war. Mass desertion will begin from Russian military units in the Caucasus, which will be encouraged by the authorities of the Caucasian republics, including through bribery and enticement into volunteer armed forces. This behavior of military personnel will receive the support of Russian society, since the war between South Ossetia and Abkhazia and Georgia will be perceived as fair. At the same time, the authorities and population of the Caucasian republics will begin to sabotage the supply of food and fuels and lubricants to Russian troops on the border. This sabotage will gradually evolve into a full-scale guerrilla war.

The separatist forces of the Caucasian republics will take advantage of the destabilization of the situation in the Caucasus, which will begin to create their own private armies and demand independence from Moscow. The situation in the Caucasus will be somewhat reminiscent of the period of the early 90s of the last century. The demoralized Russian army will not be able to restore order in the region. Moreover, Moscow’s forceful actions against the Caucasian separatists will unexpectedly meet with opposition from the West, which will declare the right of these peoples to determine their own destiny. Washington and Brussels will begin to persuade the liberal government in Moscow to grant these republics independence, using the old thesis that they are a “burden on the Russian economy.” By that time, the self-proclaimed leaders of North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Dagestan and Chechnya will declare independence. Dual power will arise in the republics. Caucasian separatists will receive political and material support from the West. Armed militants from Ukraine will pour in to help them.

Meanwhile, the established mechanism for managing elections through United Russia will not allow the country's citizens to ensure a change of power democratically. All patriotic opposition parties will be under strong pressure. They will be deprived of financial and resource support, and will be subject to various administrative obstacles. Criminal cases will be brought against the most popular leaders, and sometimes outright intimidation will be carried out, as in today's Ukraine.

Therefore, in the 2030 elections, the pro-Western candidate will again confidently “win.” By 2035, the Russian economy will shrink by about 15% compared to 2025. GDP at PPP will be approximately 3.28 trillion. dollars Russia will fall to tenth place in the ranking of the world's largest economies. Inflation will be at the level of 10–12% per year. At the same time, the population size will not fundamentally change, it will stabilize at the level of 2025, and the separation of Crimea will be “compensated” by a large number of refugees from there, as well as from Donbass and Transnistria. But national income per capita will fall significantly, by about 20%, and in PPP terms it will be $18,032 per person. According to this indicator, Russia will no longer even be among the top hundred countries in the world. And the standard of living of citizens will be comparable to the current Ukrainian one.

Two or three years after the cleansing of Transnistria Moldova will join NATO. For her Ukraine will follow. Russia will lose its attractiveness for partners in the Eurasian Economic Community. In Belarus and Kazakhstan there will be a change of top officials. In the conditions of liberal revenge in Russia, pro-Western leaders will also come to power in these countries. They will declare their orientation towards the EU and NATO. The gradual dismantling of the Eurasian Economic Community will begin. The economic influence of the Russian Federation in the post-Soviet space will drop significantly. Belarus, Moldova, Transcaucasia and Central Asian countries will be increasingly drawn into economic relations with the West through the Eastern Partnership and Association Agreements with the EU.

By that time, Belarus will leave the CSTO and declare its military neutrality. At the same time, the republic’s official goal will be to join NATO and the European Union. Georgia will receive the status of a candidate country for NATO membership, and Azerbaijan will declare its intention to join the alliance in the medium term. Armenia will also leave the CSTO, but will retain the mutual assistance agreement with Russia. At the same time, it will have to gradually reorient itself towards NATO, and in this context the painful question of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on Azerbaijan’s terms will arise.

China and Iran, realizing Russia's helplessness and its orientation towards the West, will increasingly distance themselves from Moscow and stop supporting it politically in the UN and other international forums. In economic terms, China and Iran will completely shamelessly push forward their interests in Central Asia and the Caucasus, no longer taking into account the interests of Moscow. At the same time, they will begin to lure away the most talented Russian scientists and engineers of the defense industry in order to use their services to strengthen their own deterrence forces in the face of Western aggression.

By 2035, the Eurasian Economic Community and the CSTO will cease to exist. Belarus, Georgia and Azerbaijan will join NATO. Armenia's situation will worsen so much that it will be forced to return Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan and apply to join NATO. The Russian base will be withdrawn from the territory of Armenia, and the mutual assistance agreement will be denounced ahead of schedule. The Kazakh nationalists who came to power in Kazakhstan will take advantage of the situation and begin to forcefully squeeze out the remaining Russian population. In this way, they will be able to ensure stabilization of the political situation for some time in the face of a sharp deterioration in the country’s economic situation. By redistributing property seized from the Russians among their supporters, they will be able to secure a political support base for themselves for several years. Taking into account Donbass, Crimea, Transnistria and the North Caucasus republics, the total number of Russian refugees in the Russian Federation will be about 10 million people.

The third decade of the 21st century will be the last years of the existence of Russia as we know it today. The growing economic devastation in the North Caucasus will encourage residents of the Caucasian republics to carry out armed raids on neighboring regions with a predominantly Russian population. The Stavropol and Krasnodar territories, as well as the Rostov region, will be under attack. The failure of the Russian authorities to stop such raids will lead to the arming of citizens and the organization of self-defense units and independent authorities not controlled by Moscow. Separatism will intensify in the national autonomies of the Russian Federation outside the Caucasus.

Under these conditions, the most reasonable people from among the liberal leadership of Russia will begin to insist on introducing a state of emergency, a sharp increase in spending on the army and other strong structure, as well as harsh suppression of manifestations of separatism. However they will encounter severe opposition from oligarchic circles associated with the West, and the West itself A. Brussels and Washington will threaten to impose sanctions against oligarchs who are not actively preventing the introduction of a state of emergency and an increase in defense spending. Everyone will also be hysterical against this plan. liberal media. As a result, the plan to introduce a state of emergency will not be approved, appropriations for the armed forces will increase slightly and the destabilization of the country will continue to deepen.

In the end, the liberal government in Moscow will consider that granting independence to the republics of the North Caucasus is the lesser evil. By 2040, all these republics will gain independence. There will virtually be no Russian population left there, with the exception of the elderly, who simply will have nowhere to go. However, it will not be possible to stabilize the situation in this way. In the North Caucasus there will be a war of all against all. The region will turn into something like today's Libya. Islamic terrorist organizations will settle there and, with the support of the West, will begin a permanent sabotage and terrorist war against neighboring Russian regions. Emissaries of these organizations will rush deep into Russia, into the territory of the Muslim republics, where an underground terrorist war will also be launched.

Meanwhile, inspired by the example of the North Caucasus, the elites of other autonomous republics will also demand independence. A new parade of sovereignties will begin. At the first stage, Tatarstan, Bashkiria, the Republic of Tyva and Yakutia will declare independence. The liberal government in Moscow will be paralyzed. It will not be able to agree to recognition of the independence of these territories, but it will also not be able to use force to suppress separatism. Firstly, because he will be afraid of new Western sanctions, and secondly, because he will not be confident in the ability and readiness of the army and internal troops to restore such order. A tug of war will begin between the center and the republics, as was the case in last years Gorbachev's reign.

Meanwhile, local separatists will begin to reassign all republican authorities, establish their own rules and ignore the orders and instructions of Moscow. In Tatarstan and Bashkiria, this situation will lead to an armed interethnic conflict, since the Russian population living in the republic will not want to separate from Russia and will take up arms. And within a year or two, Yakutia and Tuva will actually leave the subordination of Moscow and gain de facto independence. Added to this is the situation in the Kaliningrad region, where the “fifth column”, fueled by the West, is organizing a local Maidan demanding separation from Russia and joining the EU. Militants from neighboring Lithuania and Poland will come to the aid of this Maidan and begin actions to seize power by force. An attempt by Russian troops stationed in Kaliningrad to resist this will be met with a NATO threat to use force to “protect civilians.”

By that time, the Russian armed forces will be in a rather deplorable state, and they will have nothing to oppose the NATO ultimatum. The Kaliningrad region will declare independence, join the EU, and then be divided between Poland, Lithuania and Germany. Most of the Russian population of the region will be forcibly evicted, and the other part will be assimilated.

Japan, seeing Russia's weakness, will begin to prepare the ground for the annexation of the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin. Territorial claims from Finland, Norway and the Baltic states will intensify. Finland will make claims on Karelia and Vyborg, Norway - on the Murmansk region, Latvia - on the Pskov region, Estonia - on part of the Leningrad region, Ukraine - on the Rostov region and Kuban, Kazakhstan - on the Orenburg and Astrakhan regions, China - on the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation, the USA – to Kamchatka, Chukotka and Yakutia.

By 2050, the Russian Federation will be a patchwork quilt - a country “torn to shreds.” It will lose approximately half of its current territory. All autonomous republics and some regions will declare independence. There will be a civil war on the territory of a number of them. It makes no sense to predict the level of decline in the economy and people’s lives for such a situation. This will be a national catastrophe comparable to the events of 1918–1920. Only this time, the united West will not allow Russia to rise again; all its forces will be thrown into finishing off the defeated geopolitical enemy.

Part of Russian territory will be occupied by neighboring states. Some areas will be controlled by UN or NATO peacekeeping forces. Russian nuclear weapon will come under international control and will be gradually dismantled. The power of the government in Moscow will not extend beyond the central economic region. The collapse of Russian statehood will become irreversible. The country will live out the last years of its life.

The saddest fate in this scenario awaits the Russian people. If various autonomous entities on the territory of the Russian Federation are able to maintain their national statehood (the West will not interfere with this), then Russian territories will be dismembered. Some of them will come under the control of various national entities, where Russians will find themselves in the position of second-class citizens, as is the case in the current Baltic states or Ukraine. Over time it the Russian population will be partially assimilated, and partially destroyed or evicted. In the Russian regions themselves there will be administrations controlled by international structures, as is the case, for example, in present-day Bosnia and Herzegovina.

A significant part of the Russian population will be forcibly resettled to the regions of the Far North, where they will be used as cheap labor for mining and maintaining infrastructure for the supply of raw materials to the West and to the territory of pro-Western client states in the post-Soviet space. The occupation administrations will pursue a policy of depopulation of Russian regions through birth control, drugging and drugging the population, supplying genetically modified food grown on Western agro-industrial farms, and encouraging replacement migration from China and Central Asian countries. By the end of the 21st century, Russia will cease to exist, and its territory will represent a completely new conglomerate of peoples and states controlled by Western civilization and serving it.

Confirmed that the provisions contained in the message Federal Assembly tasks will become the country's development program in the next 6 years. Commenting on the officially announced results of the presidential elections, he again said that Russia needs a real breakthrough, and “we also need consistent deep changes, thoughtful steps that will bring sustainable results both today and in the future.” At the same time, the president admitted that “immediately, right now, changing everything overnight” would be a “beautiful gesture.”

And this was clear even during the announcement of the Address to the Federal Assembly. Many experts immediately had questions: where to get the money for everything. In particular, just to “flash Russia” with new highways, it is planned to spend 11 trillion rubles, almost twice as much as in the previous six-year period.

And this is under sanctions, when the ability to borrow from Western banks is extremely limited. To improve the health and life expectancy of citizens, according to the message, it is planned to pay more attention to the environment, investing in the modernization of hundreds of enterprises. And the mortgage interest rate needs to be reduced from 10% now to 7-8%. And so on.

The question arises, where will the money come from, which for some reason we did not have enough for all these purposes even in the most prosperous years of ultra-high oil prices?

Initially, in the first part of the message to the Federal Assembly there was little specificity, says economist, professor of the Department of International Finance at MGIMO Valentin Katasonov. - Basically, these are slogans with no strategy behind them. The most were not affected pain points our economic life. In particular, Putin once again carefully avoided issues related to capital flight. It was not said that we would introduce serious controls over the cross-border movement of capital. That the problem of deoffshorization of the economy has not been solved. Not a word is said about the fact that the activities of our monetary authorities are strangling our economy and serving the economy of the mother country - the USA. The list goes on.

Until the above problems are resolved, all talk about the digital economy and economic growth will remain an empty phrase. Even if some kind of economic growth really begins (although postscripts are often given for it), the beneficiaries of this growth will be the same oligarchs who, day and night, are engaged in the fascinating business of pumping capital out of Russia. The balance of payments data for the first two months of this year was recently published. The scale of net capital outflow has more than doubled compared to the same period last year. No anti-Russian sanctions, nor, on the contrary, the Kremlin amnesties for “prodigal oligarchs”, influenced the process of capital flight from the country.

“SP”: - The Minister of Finance, during a meeting with Vladimir Putin on March 22, said that certain proposals in the field of taxes are being prepared that “will allow increasing the own resource base of enterprises, increasing the profits of enterprises and thereby creating sources for investment”...

We have been hearing such conversations for twenty years now. Until we close the giant hole through which Russian national wealth is flowing, all other measures will resemble an attempt to fill a leaky bucket.

No matter how the GDP grows, no matter how huge the revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons, the people of Russia will not live richer from this until this situation is corrected. Having studied the balance of payments of the Central Bank for 2017, I came to the conclusion that this year alone the country lost $106 billion. And this is only the tip of the iceberg, since the statistics of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation do not record the illegal withdrawal of capital. If order was put in place in this area, we would not have to rack our brains about where to get money to improve healthcare, education, roads, etc.

No one doubts that the tasks outlined in Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly are correct, says CEO Institute of Regional Problems Dmitry Zhuravlev. - You simply can't imagine anything else. Fighting poverty, improving infrastructure and modern technologies - without this, the development of Russia is impossible. This is a strategy. And she's right. But with tactics, everything is really much more complicated.

Siluanov's proposal to try to improve the tax collection system is correct. But in practice in Russia, small and medium-sized businesses evade taxes not because they want to hide more money out of a passion for hoarding, but often because they have nothing to pay with. And you can’t remove more than one skin from a sheep. Therefore, no matter what the Ministry of Finance comes up with, it is unlikely that small and medium-sized businesses will be able to fill the “budget cup” more than now.

The second source is investment. Public private partnership. Theoretically, it can also serve to fill the state budget, but in practice, private businesses invest money in order to enrich themselves, and not to enrich the state. I can still believe that private investors will be ready to invest in technologies that should yield a profit as a result. But it is unlikely that business will invest in the construction of free roads or the development of healthcare in rural areas. That is, businesses are interested, roughly speaking, in investing in toll roads and paid healthcare.

Again, if you set the task of “flashing Russia” with new modern roads, borrowing is needed - internal or external. For the first, we simply do not have the funds; for the second, they will not give us the required amounts, given the political situation.

“SP”: - So there is simply no money for the development of the country?

If I had been given such a task, I would have followed the path of Lavrentiy Beria, since it is simply impossible to think of anything else now. It is necessary to concentrate funds on technological innovations that are immediately and widely implemented. This is also not a quick path, but it can at least be done if you act purposefully. If a plant is built that, for example, makes cheaper and higher-quality asphalt in huge volumes, then this, of course, will contribute to the “broaching of Russia.” Another question is that it’s also not in a year, and maybe not in ten. But in the end you can reach your goal. This is the only way. Finance, as the main tool for boosting a developing economy, is not effective.

“SP”: - Meanwhile, the government is already discussing the idea of ​​increasing income tax to 15%. Is this not the first sign that in the future the state will again try to increase the budget at the expense of the population?

Unfortunately, this is very likely. Because the logic of the situation in which we find ourselves is that there are simply no other sources for financing the construction of new roads. But the trouble is that by increasing taxes, the total volume of collected amounts in the modern world does not increase or increases only slightly. This is done in the first years of economics departments. As the percentage of a particular tax increases, the number of people evading it also increases.

“SP”: - The press secretary of the Russian President said that in the next 8 years, defense spending will decrease, and, in the end, it will become almost lower than in some European countries - 3% of GDP. Maybe they hope to get additional money from here for roads and hospitals?

It may very well be. The idea is beautiful. But a significant portion of defense spending is spent on advanced military developments. If you take them and throw them away, then everything invested previously will be lost. Of course, they can follow the Soviet path, when Baumanka was included in the Ministry of Agriculture. Of course, if military research institutes are spread across different areas, then formally military spending will fall. But in fact, little will change. It is possible that we will produce a little less tanks and planes and build a little more roads. But the situation will not change fundamentally.

“SP”: - Siluanov’s words that “in the healthcare sector, budget funds will be focused, first of all, on helping those in need, instead of the old Soviet principle - a little bit for everyone,” may mean some kind of new monetization, when the bulk will the population be forced to pay even more for medicine, and small groups of beneficiaries will actually receive a little more?

Yes, with such a system, the relatives of social service employees may be the most needy. Especially in remote towns and villages. And if you “play with categories,” for example, give less to pensioners and more to those with many children, then in a state with our level of income, this will mean that significant groups of people now living on the verge of poverty will ultimately end up beyond it.

On the contrary, we need to increase the income of the population so that people can buy higher quality domestic products of the same light industry. Only in this case will our production develop.

http://svpressa.ru/economy/article/196116/